Saturday, December 31, 2011

Epic humbling

Friends and neighbors, last night I set another record. It wasn't the kind anyone likes to set. I lost the most chips I've ever lost in a single session - $120,000 worth. A truly epic humbling. I've done some post mortem analysis, and the best spin I can put on the session was that I really should have lost "only" $70,000. In other words, if I remove the two hands which took me to the felt the first two times (and which I played egregiously badly), I'm left with 208 hands which I played badly. By the way, the 210 hands set a new record for length of session.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 210 hands and saw flop:
- 29 out of 33 times while in big blind (87%)
- 23 out of 34 times while in small blind (67%)
- 98 out of 143 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 150 out of 210 (71%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 33 (39%)
Pots won without showdown - 14

delta: $-120,000
balance: $3,326,119

Friday, December 30, 2011

Faster

Last night, I set the following all-time personal bests:

fastest $700,000: 22 sessions, December 2, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($700,413)
fastest $800,000: 28 sessions, November 24, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($818,734)
fastest $1,000,000: 38 sessions, November 11, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($1,019,277)
fastest $2,000,000: 169 sessions, May 6, 2011 - December 29, 2011 ($2,014,127)
fastest $3,000,000: 394 sessions, April 26, 2010 - December 29, 2011 ($3,000,577)

On the penultimate hand of the night, I won a pot worth $82,800 with a full house, eights full of aces.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 58 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 8 times while in big blind (50%)
- 4 out of 6 times while in small blind (66%)
- 30 out of 44 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 38 out of 58 (65%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 13 (46%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $58,350
balance: $3,446,119

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Heartbreak flush

Last night, I had my lengthiest poker session ever - 201 hands. As you might suspect, it wasn't a winning session. However, I played quite well. I was essentially done in by a single hand - hand 167. Had I won it, as I had every reason to expect, I would have raked in a pot worth $68,728. In all probability, I would have ended my night immediately afterwards; that would have given me a nice profit of slightly over $36,000. Instead, I lost $32,764. I only avoided hitting the felt because of the happy accident that the opponent who won the pot had started the hand with $7,548 less chips than I had. Here's what went down:

Table 'Anchises VIII' 9-max (Play Money) Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: (35500 in chips)
Seat 2: (63700 in chips)
Seat 3: neostreet (40312 in chips)
Seat 4: (15100 in chips)
Seat 5: (33000 in chips)
Seat 6: (32764 in chips)
Seat 7: (40000 in chips)
Seat 9: (18400 in chips)
Seat 5: posts small blind 100
Seat 6: posts big blind 200
Seat 7: posts big blind 200
Seat 1: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to neostreet [8s Ks]
Seat 7: checks
Seat 9: folds
Seat 1: checks
Seat 2: folds
neostreet: calls 200
Seat 4: calls 200
Seat 5: calls 100
Seat 6: checks
*** FLOP *** [5s Qs 3s]
Seat 5: checks
Seat 6: checks
Seat 7: checks
Seat 1: checks
neostreet: bets 2400
Seat 4: calls 2400
Seat 5: folds
Seat 6: calls 2400
Seat 7: folds
Seat 1: folds
*** TURN *** [5s Qs 3s] [Jc]
Seat 6: checks
neostreet: bets 37712 and is all-in
Seat 4: folds
Seat 6: calls 30164 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (7548) returned to neostreet
*** RIVER *** [5s Qs 3s Jc] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Seat 6: shows [As 2s] (a flush, Ace high)
neostreet: shows [8s Ks] (a flush, King high)
Seat 6 collected 68728 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 68728 | Rake 0
Board [5s Qs 3s Jc Qc]
Seat 1: Seat 1 folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Seat 2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: neostreet showed [8s Ks] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 4: Seat 4 (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Seat 5 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Seat 6 (big blind) showed [As 2s] and won (68728) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 7: Seat 7 folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Seat 9 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

This was the most heartbreaking flush I've ever lost. The only concern I had was that someone had the ace of spades and a non-spade, and that a fourth community spade might show up on the turn or the river. I never for a millisecond considered the possibility of someone having the ace of spades and a second spade. The odds were just so long against it. I ran my "percent at flop" calculator on my hand combined with that flop and discovered it beat 96.51% of all other possible hands. I just happened to run into one of the 3.49% of hands that could beat mine.

I'm proud that I didn't go on tilt, and that I kept battling. I realize that if you play long enough, these heartbreak hands will happen to you every so often. I said it once before, but it bears repeating - one of the most important lessons poker teaches you is that the improbable happens. That's actually very good news!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 201 hands and saw flop:
- 28 out of 32 times while in big blind (87%)
- 26 out of 32 times while in small blind (81%)
- 100 out of 137 times in other positions (72%)
- a total of 154 out of 201 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 17 of 31 (54%)
Pots won without showdown - 16

delta: $-24,512
balance: $3,387,769

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Six jacks

Last night, I won $72,200 with six jacks. On hand 29, I was dealt Jc 8h and hit trip jacks on the turn. One opponent bet $9,700, and I raised it to $19,400. No one called, and I won a pot worth $30,400 without a showdown. On hand 33, I was dealt Jh Ah, hit trip jacks on the flop, and went all in. No one called, and I won a pot worth $41,800 without a showdown.

Along the way, I lowered my fastest three million from 396 sessions to 395, and my fastest million from 43 sessions to 42.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 37 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 6 times while in big blind (16%)
- 2 out of 6 times while in small blind (33%)
- 12 out of 25 times in other positions (48%)
- a total of 15 out of 37 (40%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $52,400
balance: $3,412,281

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Mr. Fastest

On Friday night, I set a bunch of all-time personal records:

fastest $500,000: 14 sessions, December 8, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($515,744)
fastest $600,000: 18 sessions, December 3, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($603,894)
fastest $700,000: 25 sessions, November 24, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($732,496)
fastest $900,000: 35 sessions, November 11, 2011 - December 23, 2011 ($933,039)
fastest $3,000,000: 396 sessions, April 19, 2010 - December 23, 2011 ($3,002,739)

Just call me Mr. Fastest! In my last 14 sessions, I'm averaging $36,839 per session. If I could keep up that pace over the course of a 210 session year, I'd end up with a gaudy $7.7 million, over double my current target of $3 million per year.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 45 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
- 3 out of 6 times while in small blind (50%)
- 19 out of 33 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 26 out of 45 (57%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $43,366
balance: $3,359,881

Friday, December 23, 2011

yaps: twind

Last night's session inspired me to come up with yet another poker statistic. I'm calling this one twind; it stands for total winning delta. It's the sum of the deltas from the winning hands of the session. I'm not sure how useful it is, but since it's easy to calculate, I'm going to keep an eye on it for a while. I guess if you have a huge twind, it means you were doing something right, even if you ended up hitting the felt. My twind last night was $130,300; my agoal was 10.88. Both very healthy numbers!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 87 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 7 out of 13 times while in small blind (53%)
- 39 out of 62 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 54 out of 87 (62%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 15 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $70,300
balance: $3,316,515

Thursday, December 22, 2011

192: 87, 81, 27, 0

The numbers in the title of this post all refer to the last hand I played last night - hand 192. This was the longest no limit hold'em session I've ever played, and the second longest session I've ever played. As you may have guessed, I hit the felt on the hand. At the start of the hand, my stack was $13,950. I was dealt pocket rockets (a pair of aces), and went all in with them on the flop. I got one caller. He'd paired his king on the flop, and paired his jack on the turn. His two pair held up and my night was over. Before the flop, I was an 87% favorite to win the hand. After the flop, I was an 81% favorite to win the hand. After the turn, I was a 27% underdog. After the river, I had no chance of winning. That's life in the poker world!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 192 hands and saw flop:
- 26 out of 33 times while in big blind (78%)
- 20 out of 33 times while in small blind (60%)
- 86 out of 126 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 132 out of 192 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 12 of 33 (36%)
Pots won without showdown - 16

delta: $-40,000
balance: $3,246,215

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

My slowest half million

Since I like to be fair and balanced in my reporting, I feel it my duty to inform you of how many sessions it took me to earn my slowest half million. The answer isn't pretty - 223. That's fully 38% of the 582 sessions I've currently played. The good news is that I've really picked up the pace since then. In fact, thanks to last night's session, I actually bettered my record for fastest half million - it dropped from 16 sessions to 15.

Early on last night, I was the beneficiary of a real risk-taker. He'd just won a small pot by going all in, and thought that had worked so well he'd try it again right away. Mistake! I'd been dealt a pair of queens, and called him; I was the only caller. He only had a ten jack offsuit, and hit the felt.

On my penultimate hand of the night, I flopped a set a set of sevens, kept betting it big, and eventually scared everyone away. I won a pot worth $38,000 without a showdown, and called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 65 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 9 times while in big blind (100%)
- 10 out of 11 times while in small blind (90%)
- 29 out of 45 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 48 out of 65 (73%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 13 (53%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $41,408
balance: $3,286,215

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

My fastest half million

Last night, I set another personal speed record - my fastest ever half million, in 16 sessions. If I can keep up that blistering pace, I'll shatter my fastest million record. In other statistical news, I'm getting close to achieving the platinum ratio in no limit hold'em. For those new to this blog, the platinum ratio is 3 times as many winning sessions as losing sessions.

The bulk of my profit last night came on a single hand. I flopped a straight, and got into a raising war with one opponent until I was all in. This player went all in with only a pair of tens. His hand improved on the river to two pair, queens and tens, but it was too little, too late. I won a pot worth $73,700 to more than double up.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 21 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
- 4 out of 4 times while in small blind (100%)
- 11 out of 13 times in other positions (84%)
- a total of 18 out of 21 (85%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $37,900
balance: $3,244,807

Monday, December 19, 2011

Six queens

Last night, I lost twice with six queens. You may be wondering how I could lose even once with six queens, given that a poker hand only has five cards. Of course, I didn't have all six queens in one hand; I had three queens in two separate hands. I got much too frisky in each case, and deservedly hit the felt both times.

first three queens (hand 3): I was dealt Tc Qc, and the flop came Qs 4d 8d. An opponent bet $5,200, I raised to $10,400, he reraised to go all in, and I called. He turned over Ah Ad, and I knew I was a big underdog. I thought I'd pulled off an upset when the turn card was a queen, but the river did me in; another ace gave my opponent a full house and the $83,000 pot.

second three queens (hand 11): I was dealt 8c Qs, the flop came Qh Jh Qc, and the turn card was the ten of hearts. The same opponent who'd beaten me on hand 3 went all in at this point, and amazingly enough everyone still in the hand, including me, called. There's no way I should have called with a flush draw on the board like that. The player who'd gone all in had made a king high flush on the turn, and ended up winning a pot worth $168,500.

In a mere 11 hands, I'd lost $80,000. However, I realized there were worse hands than three queens to go bust on, and was encouraged that the table had a lot of action. I didn't tighten up; I kept gambling, and had some luck go my way. When I was able to get my stack back into the black, I called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 36 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 5 times while in big blind (40%)
- 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
- 20 out of 26 times in other positions (76%)
- a total of 26 out of 36 (72%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $4,850
balance: $3,206,907

Saturday, December 17, 2011

My slowest million

One of the great lessons poker teaches you is that you're just not as good as you think you are. In short, poker teaches you humility. I felt proud of myself when I discovered that my fastest play million was made in just 43 sessions, but to round out the picture, I realized I needed to find out how slowly I'd made my slowest play million. The ugly truth: 403 sessions. Almost 10 times longer than my fastest play million! That 403 represents a whopping 69.6% of the total number of sessions I've played.

The thing is, though, no matter how slowly you make a profit, you're making a profit! I have to confess I'm not feeling humble at all right now. I'm feeling like I have this no limit hold'em game pegged! I know I'm due for a humbling, but I don't think it's coming any time soon, so I brashly say to the poker gods, "Bring it on!"

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 4 hands and saw flop:
- 0 out of 1 times while in big blind (0%)
- 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
- 1 out of 3 times in other positions (33%)
- a total of 1 out of 4 (25%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $40,600
balance: $3,202,057

Friday, December 16, 2011

My fastest million

Now that I've made multiple millions, I got curious to know what's the fastest I've ever made at least a millon, in terms of number of sessions. It turns out to be 43 sessions - last night's, and the 42 preceding it. Last night, the night after my greatest eight, I made my finest nine. Here are my top 10 nines:

370,270 Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 2011 Thu Dec 15 00:00:00 2011
358,081 Fri Apr 29 01:00:00 2011 Tue May 10 01:00:00 2011
334,382 Fri Oct 14 01:00:00 2011 Mon Oct 24 01:00:00 2011
330,351 Fri May 06 01:00:00 2011 Thu May 19 01:00:00 2011
314,482 Wed Apr 27 01:00:00 2011 Fri May 06 01:00:00 2011
311,820 Sun Aug 14 01:00:00 2011 Fri Aug 26 01:00:00 2011
298,720 Sat Dec 03 00:00:00 2011 Tue Dec 13 00:00:00 2011
295,656 Tue Apr 12 01:00:00 2011 Fri Apr 22 01:00:00 2011
293,376 Fri Apr 08 01:00:00 2011 Tue Apr 19 01:00:00 2011
292,965 Mon Aug 15 01:00:00 2011 Sat Aug 27 01:00:00 2011

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
- 10 out of 15 times while in big blind (66%)
- 12 out of 15 times while in small blind (80%)
- 39 out of 56 times in other positions (69%)
- a total of 61 out of 86 (70%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 20 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $45,300
balance: $3,161,457

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Greatest eight

As you know, I'm a poker statistics nut. I especially enjoy figuring out if I've set a new personal record :-) I have an early warning system that tends to goes off when I'm close. It's not scientific; it's a gut feeling. The buzzer went off the night before last, and got fulfilled last night. I achieved my "greatest eight". That is, the sum of my deltas for the last eight sessions is the most I've ever achieved in a set of eight contiguous sessions. Here are my top ten eights:

324,970 Tue Dec 06 00:00:00 2011 Wed Dec 14 00:00:00 2011
321,676 Mon Apr 11 01:00:00 2011 Wed Apr 20 01:00:00 2011
312,320 Sun Aug 14 01:00:00 2011 Thu Aug 25 01:00:00 2011
308,518 Sat Jul 10 01:00:00 2010 Tue Jul 20 01:00:00 2010
292,100 Mon Aug 15 01:00:00 2011 Fri Aug 26 01:00:00 2011
280,432 Thu Oct 20 01:00:00 2011 Fri Oct 28 01:00:00 2011
278,532 Sat Oct 15 01:00:00 2011 Mon Oct 24 01:00:00 2011
277,481 Fri Apr 29 01:00:00 2011 Mon May 09 01:00:00 2011
272,776 Fri Apr 08 01:00:00 2011 Sat Apr 16 01:00:00 2011
269,515 Tue Aug 16 01:00:00 2011 Sat Aug 27 01:00:00 2011

As all but one of them occurred in 2011, there's no doubt that I'm having a banner year.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 49 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 6 times while in big blind (100%)
- 7 out of 9 times while in small blind (77%)
- 21 out of 34 times in other positions (61%)
- a total of 34 out of 49 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $61,450
balance: $3,116,157

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Dream flop

Play poker long enough, and you're going to see some memorable flops. I still remember the straight flush I flopped the night I hit $1,000,000 in play money for the first time. I also remember that the very next hand, I flopped a full house. I remember describing those back-to-back flops as Lady Luck taking my head in both of her hands, drawing me towards her, and kissing me full on the lips.

Last night, I didn't see a flop as good as either of those, but still saw what qualifies as a dream flop. I was dealt 4d 6h, and the flop came 5d 8s 7h, giving me a straight. What made this flop a dream flop was that it was a rainbow one - no suit was repeated, sharply reducing the likelihood of any opponent hitting a flush on the river. I slow played the hand, then bet $10,000 on the river. One opponent raised to go all in, another called, and I called. My straight won a pot worth $49,300, and I was done for the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 67 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 9 times while in big blind (55%)
- 7 out of 9 times while in small blind (77%)
- 22 out of 49 times in other positions (44%)
- a total of 34 out of 67 (50%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $32,800
balance: $3,054,707

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The beauty of checking

Last night, I passed the $3,000,000 play money mark. I achieved it on the penultimate hand, where I ended up going all in and doubling up. I was dealt pocket queens, and hit trips on the flop. I simply checked; checking can be a beautiful thing when you have such a strong hand. An opponent bet $2,800, and I raised to $5,600. He reraised to $10,200; I reraised to $14,800. I was prepared just to keep reraising until I was all in, but he only called my reraise. An ace came on the turn, I went all in, and he called. The river was a two. My set of queens beat his two pair of aces and kings to win a pot worth $80,402.

Today is December 13th, 2011. By December 13th, 2012, I aim to have grown my stack to $6,000,000 play dollars.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 47 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
- 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
- 23 out of 36 times in other positions (63%)
- a total of 31 out of 47 (65%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $40,202
balance: $3,021,907

Monday, December 12, 2011

My next target

On Saturday night, I came close to hitting the $3,000,000 play money mark. When I was approaching $1,000,000, I decided to switch to Omaha once I hit it. When I was approaching $2,000,000, I decided to switch to deuce to the seven triple draw lowball (aka deuce) once I hit it. Now that I'm approaching $3,000,000, I've decided that I'll keep playing no limit Hold'Em, but will set a super aggressive target for the coming year. My goal is to win an additional $3,000,000 in the calendar year following the day I hit $3,000,000.

I know this is doable, because I've kept track of my average session delta per poker flavor and initial stake; here they are, in descending order:

poker_flavor_descr initial_stake_max count(*) sum(s.delta) / count(*)
No Limit Hold'em 40000 114 14975.6842
Pot Limit Hold'em 40000 252 4225.1310
Pot Limit Hold'em 2000 126 852.4921
Pot Limit Omaha 2000 36 614.3889
Limit 7 Card Stud 2000 10 460.6000
No Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball 2000 30 311.3667
Pot Limit Omaha NULL 1 -370.0000
Limit 5 Card Draw 2000 1 -500.0000
Limit 7 Card Stud 8000 3 -535.6667
Limit 7 Card Stud 20000 1 -20000.0000

Rounding up my average per session no limit hold'em delta to $15,000, it should take me 3,000,000 / 15,000 = 200 sessions to amass 3,000,000 play dollars. In 2010, my first full year of keeping poker statistics, I played 208 sessions. So far this year, I've played 238 sessions. So it's safe to say I'll play at least 200 sessions in the next calendar year. Looking over these numbers, what really prevented me from growing my balance as fast as I could was trying out the non Hold'em poker variants.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 77 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 5 out of 11 times while in small blind (45%)
- 34 out of 54 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 47 out of 77 (61%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 17 (76%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $60,768
balance: $2,981,705

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Baiting a straight

Last night, I won a huge pot when I baited a straight. When you have a big hand, it really pays to slow play it. I'd been dealt a pair of fours, and made a set on the flop. I didn't bet the flop or the turn, just calling. The river card was an ace which paired another ace on the board to give me a full house, fours full of aces. At that point the pot was at $6,000 and I bet the pot (shades of my pot limit days). An opponent who'd flopped a straight and had been slow playing himself raised me to $20,000. I went all in, and he called. I won a pot worth $83,200 and my opponent hit the felt.

I made another odd crossing, and am now in striking distance of $3,000,000.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 51 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
- 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
- 19 out of 35 times in other positions (54%)
- a total of 29 out of 51 (56%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $59,000
balance: $2,920,937

Friday, December 9, 2011

Reupping

When I first set myself the goal of earning a million play dollars playing Texas Hold'Em, I decided to be very conservative about certain things. I decided to build up a set of rules and stick by them. The very first rule I made was to quit playing for the night if I ever hit the felt. This rule served me well, but eventually I grew dissatisfied with it.

After experiencing some huge swings at the $100/$200 tables, another rule I made was to stick to the $5/$10 tables, and build up my stack slowly but surely. At one point I calculated how long it would take me to reach my million by playing safely in this fashion; I think it came out to about 5 years!

I ended up breaking both of these rules on the same night. Why did I do this? For one thing, I was chafing under the restrictions; I felt stifled and wasn't having a lot of fun playing. It felt too much like work! For another, I was starting to hit a dry spell; I was coming across some really good poker players at the low stakes tables, and realized that at my current rate, I'd still be shy of my goal in 5 years. That was unacceptable to me.

As soon as I went back to the $100/$200 tables, my luck changed and my balance took off. I really believe the quality of play was better at the lower stakes tables, so I was doubly better off at the higher stakes tables - not only did I have a better chance to win, but when I did win I'd be winning 20 times more chips.

For the longest time, I avoided no limit. I admit that the thought of it terrified me. I got very good at pot limit, and thought that was all I needed to play. I don't remember my reason for deciding to try no limit, but when I did, my balance again took off like a rocket. These days, I'd never dream of playing at a low stakes table, and I don't see myself switching back to pot limit in the near future (if ever).

I realize I've rambled on a bit. What does the title of the post signify? The decision to keep playing after hitting the felt. This decision shouldn't be made lightly. Here are my rules for reupping:

1. never reup when you're on tilt (this one is very hard to obey, since being on tilt makes you disobey rules :-)

2. never reup if you're playing badly

3. definitely reup if you're playing well

Last night, I hit the felt on hand 41, but was playing well. I'd had some bad beats, but wasn't on tilt. I reupped for the max, won some big pots, and came out with a nice profit on the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 62 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 11 times while in big blind (81%)
- 8 out of 10 times while in small blind (80%)
- 18 out of 41 times in other positions (43%)
- a total of 35 out of 62 (56%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 12 (58%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $17,800
balance: $2,861,937

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Listening to the board

Sometimes, listening to the board (i.e., the community cards) can be as important as listening to your opponents. Sometimes, the board will tell you that you have the best hand. Actually, it's never the board alone; it's the board, in combination with all your past experience, which talks to you.

Last night, on the penultimate hand, I was dealt a big slick. The flop came 7c Jh 2h. The turn was the ace of diamonds; I bet $25,200, since the board told me I had the best hand. I got one caller. The river was the two of clubs, and I bet another $8,400. My opponent raised another $2,200 to go all in, and I called. My two pair of aces and deuces beat her two pair of aces and deuces, since I had the better kicker (hers was a queen).

As predicted, last night's session was a lot easier than the one before it; I hope tonight's is as easy!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 27 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
- 2 out of 5 times while in small blind (40%)
- 9 out of 18 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 14 out of 27 (51%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 6 (83%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $50,800
balance: $2,844,137

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Underwater record

Last night, I'm sure I set a personal record for number of hands underwater in a session in which I ended up making a profit. Of the 168 hands I played, I was underwater at the start of 156 of them. I nearly set a record for pots won in a session, with 39; I checked the archives and last October I had a session in which I won 44 pots.

I'm proud that I ground my way back into the black, even though it took so long to do it. The biggest reason my stack was on life support was the severe hit it took on hand 20; I lost $26,600 when my king high straight lost to an ace high straight.

I have a hunch tonight will be a much easier session.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 168 hands and saw flop:
- 27 out of 32 times while in big blind (84%)
- 22 out of 32 times while in small blind (68%)
- 72 out of 104 times in other positions (69%)
- a total of 121 out of 168 (72%)
Pots won at showdown - 21 of 30 (70%)
Pots won without showdown - 18

delta: $2,150
balance: $2,793,337

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Swallowed up

Last night, it wasn't a question of if I was going to lose, it was how much. Those nights happen, and you have to learn to live with them. If I'd admitted to myself in time that my goal should have been to minimize my losses rather than trying to fight back to the black, I might have been able to escape with losing half my starting stack. That didn't happen, and I hit the felt on the 58th hand.

Hand 21 really did me in; I lost more chips playing it than I gained from the 7 hands I won. So you could say all my winnings were swallowed up by a single hand. I'd been dealt a pair of eights, and convinced myself that a third one was coming my way. It never did, and I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt a pair of kings. The pot was worth $36,600; I lost $14,300 on the hand.

That was my only really poorly played hand of the night. The next highest amount I lost on a hand was $2,800. When I got down into Lazarus territory, I ran into some bad luck and that was all she wrote. As you may know, I'm not down about the loss. I'm raring to go again!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 58 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 11 times while in big blind (72%)
- 8 out of 13 times while in small blind (61%)
- 29 out of 34 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 45 out of 58 (77%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 10 (30%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-40,000
balance: $2,791,187

Monday, December 5, 2011

A new zip code

On Saturday night, I had enough luck and skill to put my balance into a new zip code. I crossed the $2,800,000 boundary for the first time. It's now a semi-realistic goal to try to hit $3,000,000 in play money before the end of the year.

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, one hand sticks out like a sore thumb. On that one, I won a pot worth $72,700 with two pair, queens and eights. Given that there was an ace in the flop, I probably should have folded when one of my opponents went all in on the river, but I didn't. What can I say? An old cliche applies here: sometimes it's better to be lucky than good!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 56 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 11 times while in big blind (72%)
- 5 out of 11 times while in small blind (45%)
- 27 out of 34 times in other positions (79%)
- a total of 40 out of 56 (71%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 12 (58%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $75,200
balance: $2,831,187

Saturday, December 3, 2011

The Icarus syndrome

Icarus was the mythological boy who escaped with his father Daedalus from the island of Crete by flying away with wings made of wax and feathers, designed by his father. Daedalus had warned Icarus not to fly too close to the sun, but in the intoxication of the moment, Icarus forgot the warning. The heat of the sun melted the wax, and he plummeted to his death in the sea below, thereafter known as the Sea of Icarus.

In last night's session, I got caught up in the intoxication of the moment also. I'd more than tripled my starting stack amount, and wanted to get to an even $100,000 in profit before I quit for the night. I had a great chance to do it, too, but got beaten by an underdog hand. The night went south from that point. Fortunately for me, my fate did not completely parallel Icararus's; though I lost a huge amount of chips, I still was able to quit with a small profit.

Including the loss I just mentioned, I suffered three bad beats on my way down:

bad beat #1 (hand 117): I was dealt a pair of aces, and went all in preflop against a ten queen offsuit. The ten queen hit a straight on the river; I lost a pot worth $75,199. If I'd won the pot, my stack would have hit $169,182, and I would have quit the next hand. My hand was an 84.3% favorite before the flop.

bad beat #2 (hand 140): I was dealt 9h Th, and hit a flush on the river. An opponent hit a better flush (also on the river) to win a pot worth $32,200. If I'd won the pot, my stack would have hit $109,681, and I would very likely have quit the next hand. I'm categorizing this as a bad beat not because I was ever ahead in the hand, but because getting torpedoed by an uberflush leaves you with the exact same feeling as a bad beat does.

bad beat #3 (hand 145): I was dealt a 7 8 offsuit, and hit a straight on the turn. An opponent hit a full house on the river to win a pot worth $62,300. If I'd won the pot, my stack would have hit $108,581, and I would very likely have quit the next hand. My hand was a 90.91% favorite after the turn.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 160 hands and saw flop:
- 23 out of 26 times while in big blind (88%)
- 17 out of 27 times while in small blind (62%)
- 70 out of 107 times in other positions (65%)
- a total of 110 out of 160 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 19 of 34 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $10,281
balance: $2,755,987

Friday, December 2, 2011

Pad percentage

One type of hand I've been forgetting to consider in my recent spate of poker statistics is the revenue-neutral one. This is when you're not the big or small blind (and therefore have no forced bet), and fold before the flop without betting. These types of hands can extend your session, so they can be thought of as session padding. You don't want to have no padding, but you also don't want to have too much of it. At a 7 player table, every player has 5 possible revenue-neutral hands every 7 hands, which is 71.4%. Clearly, you don't want your pad percentage to go anywhere near that high. However, it behooves you to adjust your pad percentage based on the style of play of your opponents. If you're at a table with players who like to go all in before the flop, prudent play dictates that you'll have a higher pad percentage than you normally would.

Last night, I had a pad percentage of 11.5, and an agoal of 4.1.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 87 hands and saw flop:
- 17 out of 18 times while in big blind (94%)
- 16 out of 19 times while in small blind (84%)
- 34 out of 50 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 67 out of 87 (77%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 12 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $8,750
balance: $2,745,706

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Silver lining

Last night, I hit the felt on the 52nd hand. I then reupped for the max, and played 70 more hands. I didn't get out from under, but did reduce my losses a little bit. For large portions of the night I was card dead. The silver lining I take from the night is that when I order the deltas of the hands by absolute value, the top two deltas are wins. That's a good sign. Five of the top ten absolute value deltas are wins, in fact; that proves I wasn't getting creamed.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 122 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 16 times while in big blind (75%)
- 11 out of 17 times while in small blind (64%)
- 60 out of 89 times in other positions (67%)
- a total of 83 out of 122 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 22 (36%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: -28,100
balance: $2,736,956

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Fear factor

Last night, I didn't have any monster hands, but still made a nice profit. Looking over the session stats, I'm inspired to come up with yet another poker statistic; I'll call this one the fear factor. Here's the formula:

fear_factor = pots_won_without_showdown / hands_taken_to_showdown

hands_taken_to_showdown includes both hands which won and hands which lost. A value of at least 2 for fear_factor means that the rest of the table was in fear of you. Last night, my fear factor came out to 2.67.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 41 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
- 3 out of 6 times while in small blind (50%)
- 21 out of 29 times in other positions (72%)
- a total of 28 out of 41 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 3 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $25,626
balance: $2,765,056

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Setting the hook

When you have a great hand, it isn't hard to win the pot; what's hard is extracting the most value from it. Quite often, you can only land the biggest fish by setting the hook properly. Last night, I had a great opportunity to practice this maneuver. I hit a straight on the turn, and was the first to act; an opponent acting after me had bet the flop pretty aggressively. I checked instead of betting, knowing that my opponent would put down a big continuation bet. When he did, I doubled the bet instead of being more aggressive; we then got into a brief betting war until I was all in. My straight beat his two pair to win a pot worth $77,100. I got out of Dodge, and had a stellar agoal of 40.6 on the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 15 hands and saw flop:
- 0 out of 1 times while in big blind (0%)
- 1 out of 2 times while in small blind (50%)
- 5 out of 12 times in other positions (41%)
- a total of 6 out of 15 (40%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $37,100
balance: $2,739,430

Monday, November 28, 2011

yaps: bbwph

On Saturday night, my stack took some wild swings, due to the fact that I was playing a little too friskily. Luckily for me, I ended the night with a small gain, but I need to cut back on the friskiness. The see-saw nature of the night inspired me to come up with yet another poker statistic; I'm calling this one bbwph. It stands for big blinds wagered per hand, and uses the following formula:

bbwph = total_amount_wagered / num_hands / big_blind_amount

total_amount_wagered includes uncalled bet amounts, since those amounts are generally money that's being put at risk. This isn't always the case; on rare occasions it's possible to bet more money than any player remaining in the hand could call. Technically, in those cases, the uncalled bet amounts are never at risk; but let's not worry about that!

My bbwph from Saturday night was a whopping 27.12. In contrast, my bbwph from last Tuesday's session was a much saner 10.41.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
- 37 out of 50 times in other positions (74%)
- a total of 53 out of 76 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 19 (36%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $4,445
balance: $2,702,330

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Second best one session rebound ever

Faithful readers of this blog will remember that I'm intrigued by the concept of poker rebounds, and keep tweaking my definitions of them to suit my current mood. On Thursday night, I had by any definition a great rebound from the session before. It inspired me to come up with my latest poker rebound definition - namely, the one session rebound. A one session rebound is a winning session following a losing session; it doesn't matter what happened before the losing session or what happens after the winning session. The amount of the rebound uses a similar formula to that of my previous rebound definition - it's the lesser of the absolute value of the amount lost in the losing session and the amount won in the winning session.

On Wednesday night, I lost $80,000. On Thursday night, I won $70,500. By my new definition, that's a one session rebound of $70,500. I just wrote a utility to calculate all the one session rebounds of my poker career, and rank them in descending order. My latest rebound came in at #2 on the list - not too shabby. Here are my top 10 one session rebounds:

Fri Oct 01 01:00:00 2010 $81,200
Thu Nov 24 00:00:00 2011 $70,500
Fri Apr 22 01:00:00 2011 $66,980
Sat Jul 10 01:00:00 2010 $64,050
Mon May 11 01:00:00 2009 $51,400
Wed Jun 22 01:00:00 2011 $50,600
Mon Aug 02 01:00:00 2010 $49,521
Wed Apr 27 01:00:00 2011 $45,080
Wed Jun 16 01:00:00 2010 $44,300
Fri Nov 11 00:00:00 2011 $42,100

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 104 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 15 times while in big blind (80%)
- 7 out of 14 times while in small blind (50%)
- 43 out of 75 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 62 out of 104 (59%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 11 (54%)
Pots won without showdown - 13

delta: $70,500
balance: $2,697,885

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Two heartbreak hands

Last night, I played the best I've ever played to lose $80,000. Two heartbreak hands did me in. If the first had gone my way, I would only have lost $9,700 on the night. If the second had gone my way, I would have won $7,800 on the night. If both had gone my way, I would have won $78,100 on the night. Here's what actually went down:

heartbreak hand #1 (hand 19): I was dealt 3c Ac, and hit the nut flush on the flop. I went all in on the river, and lost to a full house which had been made on the turn. I had been almost a 2-1 favorite after the flop. I spent $34,000 on the hand, and lost a pot worth $70,300. The only thing that prevented me from hitting the felt was the fact that I had more chips than the winner at the start of the hand. I hit the felt the very next hand, and reupped for the max.

heartbeak hand #2 (hand 38): I was dealt 5c 7c, and hit a straight on the turn. I went all in, and got one caller. The caller was on a flush draw, and made his flush on the river. I had been almost a 4-1 favorite after the turn. I spent $37,000 on the hand, and lost a pot worth $87,800. There's no way the player who ended up winning the pot should have called my all in bet. He had to put in $30,400 to do it, so he was getting less than 3-1 pot odds, and only had a 1 in 4 chance of hitting his flush.

That's poker, though. The improbable happens! I played those two hands exactly the way I wanted to, and have no regrets.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 100 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 14 times while in big blind (64%)
- 7 out of 14 times while in small blind (50%)
- 41 out of 72 times in other positions (56%)
- a total of 57 out of 100 (57%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 20 (40%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-80,000
balance: $2,627,385

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

yaps: agoal

In the world of computing (specifically, the world of unix computing), there's a utility called yacc. yacc stands for "yet another compiler compiler". The self-deprecatory nature of this acronym has inspired me to come up with a like-minded neo neo (neostreet neologism) - yaps. yaps stands for "yet another poker statistic". I was inspired to come up with a new statistic when I looked at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session. What immediately jumped out was that the losses were all small, while some of the gains were quite big. I recently likened this desirable disparity to "taking the stairs to the elevator". The new stat, which I'm dubbing agoal, provides the ability to quantify just how "stairs to the elevator"-y a session is. Here's the formula, stunning in both simplicity and beauty:

agoal (average gain over average loss) = average_gain / average_loss

My agoal last night was a robust 5.8. Not having computed agoal on any other sessions yet, I can only give you my poker player's hunch as to what constitutes a good agoal value; my hunch is that it's at least 5.

Since it's always good to have goals, I hereby declare that my next goal is to hit the 3 million play money mark by President's Day.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 64 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
- 7 out of 9 times while in small blind (77%)
- 25 out of 47 times in other positions (53%)
- a total of 38 out of 64 (59%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $20,550
balance: $2,707,385

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Golden

Friends and neighbors, I did it. After more than a year in the wilderness, I've finally returned to the golden ratio. Of the 558 sessions I've now played, I've won 372 and lost 186. I'm prouder of this poker achievement than of any other.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 140 hands and saw flop:
- 17 out of 19 times while in big blind (89%)
- 16 out of 20 times while in small blind (80%)
- 73 out of 101 times in other positions (72%)
- a total of 106 out of 140 (75%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 21 (47%)
Pots won without showdown - 14

delta: $15,853
balance: $2,686,835

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Wait for the boost

I've been playing online poker for over three years now. You could say I'm a seasoned pro, even though I only play for play money. You must admit, however grudgingly, that I know a thing or two about this wonderful game. If I could sum up, in four words, the optimal poker playing strategy, it would be "wait for the boost". What do I mean by that? It's simple, really. Fortunes can change in the blink of an eye in poker; what good players have to do is bide their time, slogging through scores of mediocre hands, keeping enough chips on hand to be able to grab the brass ring if and when it comes along. Good players must be willing and able to fold, over and over again. A good player is almost a folding machine. You never know when your stack is going to rocket skywards, defying gravity; just wait sufficiently long, and it will happen!

Last night was a textbook example. After 47 hands, I was basically back to my starting stack amount. However, I won the next four hands in a row, more than doubled my starting stack amount, and gladly stepped off the elevator.

One more winning session and I hit the golden ratio again!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 52 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
- 7 out of 7 times while in small blind (100%)
- 29 out of 39 times in other positions (74%)
- a total of 41 out of 52 (78%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 11 (54%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $41,400
balance: $2,670,982

Friday, November 18, 2011

Bookends

Last night, I hit the felt on the 7th hand when my pair of aces lost to a king high flush. The thing is, I don't think I misplayed the hand; I was dealt a big slick, and called a big preflop raise. Before the flop, my hand was a 71% favorite; after the flop, it was a coin flip. Given another chance, I'd still play the hand the same way.

I reupped at the same table for the max. Six hands later, I won back all the chips I'd lost, most of them coming from the player I'd lost them to. Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over time, the starting balance of hand 7 and the ending balance of hand 13 are bookends.

On the peevish front, an old deficiency in the PokerStars software came back to bite me. Once again, I clicked the "Clear" button on the stats tab by mistake, and so lost my session stats. Of course, I could recalculate them from the hand histories, but right now that's too much work. I've said it before and I'll say it again - that "Clear" button is utterly misguided. I don't know why anyone would ever want to click it. At the very least, the software should throw up an "Are you sure?" dialog box before just blowing away all the session stats. Harrumph!

hands played: 61

delta: $14,700
balance: $2,629,582

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Another poker stat

Last night, I had a perfect showdown percentage for the third consecutive session. That inspired me to come up with a new poker stat - consecutive showdowns won (CSW). Right now, my CSW is 10. I don't know if that's a personal best, but have a feeling it may be.

What can I say? I'm in the zone.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 17 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 3 times while in big blind (33%)
- 2 out of 3 times while in small blind (66%)
- 6 out of 11 times in other positions (54%)
- a total of 9 out of 17 (52%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $36,500
balance: $2,614,882

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Mini-Me session

Last night's session was a Mini-Me of the one before it. Once again, I took the stairs to the elevator. Once again, I quit with a nice profit after stepping off the elevator. And once again, I had a showdown percentage of 100%. There were only two features of last night's session which differed appreciably from Monday's:

1. my underwater percentage was much higher (94% vs. 40%)
2. it was shorter

I'm now a mere four winning sessions from regaining the golden ratio; it's so close I can taste it!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 35 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 5 times while in big blind (100%)
- 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
- 19 out of 25 times in other positions (76%)
- a total of 28 out of 35 (80%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $15,900
balance: $2,578,382

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Taking the stairs to the elevator

Last night, I took the stairs to the elevator. That is, after an initial early lift, I descended flight after flight of stairs until I finally found a floor with an elevator. I took the elevator straight up, ending one floor higher than where I started. I stepped off, and quit for the night.

It's that time again. Yes, friends and neighbors, I'm about to tell you the secret of poker. Of course, it will have morphed from the last time I told you, but you should be used to that by now. Drumroll, please...

The secret of poker is to take the stairs when you're going down and the elevator when you're going up.

"What the frack does neo mean by that?", I hear you asking, somewhat peevishly. It's quite simple. Limit your losses, and maximize your gains. Another way to phrase it: fold when you're going to lose, and raise when you're going to win. The rub, of course, is in knowing whether you're going to win or lose; the best teacher for that is experience. I know I'm very lucky that play money poker sites like PokerStars exist; they make it possible to get as much experience as you want with no financial outlay.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 58 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 10 times while in big blind (60%)
- 3 out of 7 times while in small blind (42%)
- 27 out of 41 times in other positions (65%)
- a total of 36 out of 58 (62%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 5 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $20,540
balance: $2,562,482

Monday, November 14, 2011

One blemish

On Saturday night, I had a great session. It had only one blemish, which was easy to spot when I looked at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the night. On hand 28, I lost $19,000. I'd been dealt an 8 9 offsuit, and my hand improved only to a two pair, eights and threes. Both the turn and the river were threes, and the highest board card was an eight. An opponent bet $13,600 on the river, and inexplicably, I called. I guess somehow I convinced myself he was bluffing. He wasn't, and turned over an eight and a three for a full house. Of course, he didn't need the eight to beat my hand; his trip 3s were sufficient. I didn't let the misplay get me down, though, and played well for the remainder of the session.

Looking over the hand histories, it turns out I only went all in once, when I won a pot worth $90,700 with two pair, jacks and tens. That's conclusive proof that you don't have to be super aggressive to do well at no limit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 124 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 14 times while in big blind (64%)
- 13 out of 21 times while in small blind (61%)
- 52 out of 89 times in other positions (58%)
- a total of 74 out of 124 (59%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 16 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $73,000
balance: $2,541,942

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Gauging the apogee

Some hands catapult your stack skywards; the tricky thing to do when this happens is to gauge the apogee correctly. Are you still going up, or will you soon be embarking on a long downward trend? Sometimes the apogee is easy to gauge, though; that was the case last night. When I won my biggest pot of the night on hand 88, I knew right away it was time to quit.

I seem to be getting selectively super aggressive lately. Last night, I went all in three times, and won all three of those hands. Moreover, I wasn't calling a big bet to go all in; I was initiating my own big bet.

Tonight I'll try to keep the aggression rolling.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 89 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 13 times while in big blind (92%)
- 13 out of 14 times while in small blind (92%)
- 40 out of 62 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 65 out of 89 (73%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 17 (41%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $42,100
balance: $2,468,942

Friday, November 11, 2011

7 noticeable descents

On Tuesday night, I hit the felt twice. I don't think I played that badly, but that could be selective (and protective) memory at work. The only hand I can remember really misplaying was one where I slow-played a flush I made on the flop or the turn, and lost to a higher flush when four of the five board cards turned up spades; like a fool, I bet the river big, instead of simply checking. A classic example of acting too late, trying to make up for not acting earlier in the hand.

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, there are 7 noticeable descents. I'll now go back over those particular hands, and grade myself on them.

descent 1: I had a gutshot straight draw, and folded on the river when it didn't materialize. Chips lost: 4,600. Grade: B-. That was a reasonable amount to spend on a gutshot.

descent 2: I was dealt a pair of kings, and fell in love with them, even though the flop was all diamonds. I went all in and got one caller, who thankfully had less chips than me at the start of the hand. Chips lost: 17,500. Grade: F. I had no business whatsoever going all in.

descent 3: I flopped a straight, went all in on the turn, but wound up losing to a full house. Felting #1. Chips lost: 9,900. Grade: A. I'd play that hand the same way again, every time.

descent 4: I hit a full house on the river, but lost to a better full house. Chips lost: 16,000. Grade: A. I had sixes full of queens, where all the sixes were on the board, and the queens were the top pair; I lost to sixes full of kings, since my opponent had been dealt a pair of kings.

descent 5: I was dealt ace jack offsuit, then got caught in a raising war preflop between two other players. I eventually folded, but not before spending a bunch of chips. Chips lost: 7,000. Grade: C-. I should have recognized I was caught in a sandwich and folded earlier.

descent 6: I flopped a flush, bet 1,300 on the turn, and then 6,500 on the river (which was a fourth board spade). My 9 high flush lost to a 10 high. Chips lost: 8,200. Grade: F. No way I should have bet a single solitary dollar on the river.

descent 7: I was dealt a pair of eights, which turned into two pair, queens and eights; I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt a pair of nines. I'd had to go all in to call; this was felting #2. Chips lost: 5,700. Grade: B. I was short-stacked, and didn't have much choice in the matter.

My 2 As and 2 Fs average out to four gentleman Cs. It turns out I played pretty badly after all.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 87 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
- 5 out of 10 times while in small blind (50%)
- 39 out of 67 times in other positions (58%)
- a total of 52 out of 87 (59%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 10 (20%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-80,000
balance: $2,426,842

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Bingo donk

Last night, on my last hand of the session, I went all in preflop with an ace queen offsuit. It turned into two pair, aces and queens, but lost to three of a kind, fours. To add insult to injury, the player who won the hand had called another player a "bingo donk" on the previous hand, and had then included the rest of us under this sobriquet as he went all in on this hand, essentially taunting us and daring us to take him down. I rose to the bait. The thing is, he was being a bingo donk himself. A bingo donk is a player who bets way more chips than his hand warrants, hoping to get lucky and rake in a huge pot. It's essentially a random event who wins a hand contested in this manner, so it's like playing bingo. Very little poker skill comes into play.

The ironic thing is that I had successfully avoided engaging with bingo donks all the way through the session up to that point. Something about the verbal challenge was too much for me. Interestingly, my ace and a face was actually a slight underdog to his pair of fours preflop, so statistically, I got what I deserved. Given that four of us went to showdown, I didn't have a very realistic chance of coming out on top.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 60 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 9 times while in big blind (44%)
- 6 out of 9 times while in small blind (66%)
- 22 out of 42 times in other positions (52%)
- a total of 32 out of 60 (53%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 7 (28%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-40,000
balance: $2,506,842

Monday, November 7, 2011

Leviathan

On Saturday night, I won the biggest pot of my 3 year poker career. It weighed in at $193,950. That's a big pot. It's a whale of a pot. In fact, it's a leviathan. Needless to say, I'd gone all in, investing $73,700. That's probably a personal best as well. For the record, my hand was a full house, threes full of tens, but I didn't even need the tens. I'd flopped a set of threes, and knew on the turn that they'd hold up. How did I know? Sometimes you just do.

I surprised myself a little by not ending my night immediately; I like to think that was out of respect for the opponents who'd just lost a lot of chips to me. When my stack was about to slip below $150k, however, I pulled the plug.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
- 11 out of 12 times while in big blind (91%)
- 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
- 40 out of 60 times in other positions (66%)
- a total of 59 out of 86 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 10 (80%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $111,100
balance: $2,546,842

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Medicine

If you want to be successful at poker, you have to learn how to take your medicine. Sometimes, even though you've made all the right decisions, you still end up losing. Of course, this is frustrating, but you can't let it become debilitating. Possibly the most valuable lesson of poker, and certainly one which it teaches over and over again, is that the improbable happens. Last night, I hit the felt when I got sevened - that is, I lost to a 7% underdog. I had a 79% chance of winning the hand, and a 14% chance of tying, yet still lost.

Did I swear out loud when this happened? No. Did I swear in my head? Again, no. I've played enough poker to know that this kind of thing happens. It's old hat. I'm on the right side of such improbability often enough to realize I have no cause for complaining when I'm on the wrong side of it.

I reupped for the max at the same table, and played roughly even poker for the rest of the night. Tonight, I'm loaded for bear!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 176 hands and saw flop:
- 19 out of 25 times while in big blind (76%)
- 23 out of 27 times while in small blind (85%)
- 96 out of 124 times in other positions (77%)
- a total of 138 out of 176 (78%)
Pots won at showdown - 14 of 30 (46%)
Pots won without showdown - 18

delta: $-38,950
balance: $2,435,742

Friday, November 4, 2011

Anticipatory betting

When you don't have a hand yet, but think you might end up with one, it's a good idea to make a bet. If you make a hand, you'll have that much more money in the pot to win. If you don't make one, you can still win if your opponents interpret your bets as representative of a strong hand. It's important, having led the betting in an earlier betting round, to make continuation bets if no one else decides to bet. Unless someone is sandbagging you, you'll increase your chances of winning the pot by doing so. People are more likely to believe you have something if you're willing to keep betting.

On the penultimate hand of last night's session, I ended up stealing the pot without really trying to; I was dealt a suited ace eight, and picked up a flush draw on the flop. I led the betting on the flop and the turn, and the only person who went to the river with me folded before I could even put down a bet. I didn't make my flush, but it didn't matter. I actually felt sort of guilty about winning that hand! I think that's the first time I've ever won a pot like that. It was worth $14,200; 73% of it was o.p.m. (other people's money).

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 66 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 9 out of 13 times while in small blind (69%)
- 25 out of 41 times in other positions (60%)
- a total of 42 out of 66 (63%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $12,600
balance: $2,474,692

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Easy money

Last night, I made some easy money. There was a very aggressive player at the table, and I knew all I had to do was wait for a good hand and then turn the dial to 11 on him. On hand 17, I got dealt the best hole cards you can get (rockets), raised to $17,400 preflop, then went all in after the flop. My pair of aces won a hand worth $118,000, and my night was over early.

The thing you notice about aggressive players is that their stacks take really wild swings; the trick is to engage with them at just the right time. Sure, there's luck involved with picking the right time, but not as much luck as if you tried to equal their aggression. All you're trying to do is give yourself a high percentage chance of winning a single pot from them; you don't want to go toe to toe with them more than once.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 18 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
- 0 out of 3 times while in small blind (0%)
- 5 out of 13 times in other positions (38%)
- a total of 7 out of 18 (38%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $77,900
balance: $2,462,092

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Aiming for five

Last night, I stopped playing after 35 hands, sticking to my self-imposed poker diet. 35 is a nice target, since it's divisible by 7. Why is being divisible by 7 nice? Since that's the number of players at a table after I join, including me. Since I expect to win 1 out of every 7 hands at such a table, I expect to win 5 hands in a 35 hand session. That's the goal I'll be aiming for. Anything over that is gravy.

By the way, I reserve the right to play longer sessions when it's not a "school night", or simply on my whim :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 35 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
- 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
- 11 out of 24 times in other positions (45%)
- a total of 19 out of 35 (54%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 6 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $4,500
balance: $2,384,192

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Too long at the fair

Last night, I stayed too long at the fair. In other words, I played too long. The longer you play, the more likely you are to lose; that's a simple fact of poker life. No player is immune to this. In a touch of irony, my stack took a massive hit on the penultimate hand when I failed to recognize on the turn that although I'd made a straight, I had the low end of it and an opponent could very well have the high end. An opponent did, and I lost a whopping $34,200 on the hand; that left me with just $575. I went all in on the following hand with a ten queen offsuit, and hit the felt.

I need to put myself back on a poker diet for a while. My goal is to play no more than 35 hands a night for the immediate future. We'll see how I do.

I was so disgusted with my asinine play at the end of the session that I forgot to save the hand stats; the only stat I know for sure is that I played 94 hands.

delta: $-40,000
balance: $2,379,692

Monday, October 31, 2011

Right-sided high end plus

I've written before about being on the wrong side of a high end plus; last Friday night, I was on the right side of one. I hit it on the turn. The funny thing was, my opponent, who merely had the high end, was betting like he had the nuts. The only time I raised was on the river, and I only doubled his $6,000 bet; he then went all in and I called immediately. There was no way I could lose, since the board hadn't paired and there was no flush draw there. I figured all he had was the high end, and that he was going to learn a very expensive lesson. I won a pot worth $70,000, and got out of Dodge.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 14 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 2 times while in big blind (50%)
- 1 out of 2 times while in small blind (50%)
- 6 out of 10 times in other positions (60%)
- a total of 8 out of 14 (57%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $30,000
balance: $2,419,692

Friday, October 28, 2011

Boiling a frog

When I left my last job after more than 23 years, I had a fair number of goodbye conversations, both in person and via email. In one of the email exchanges, a longstanding colleague's congratulations were framed in a way that implied he didn't like working there much anymore; that led me to ask him why he was still at the company. He replied with a question; he asked me if I knew how to boil a frog. I didn't. He explained that you can't boil a frog by putting it in boiling water - it will immediately jump out. What you do is put the frog in warm water, then slowly and imperceptibly raise the temperature of the water until the frog is cooked.

This tactic can be used to remarkably good effect in poker as well. Last night, I boiled a frog on my penultimate hand. I'd been dealt a pair of nines, and a player who acted after me was leading the betting; I just called on the flop and the turn. The river was a nine, giving me a set. I simply checked, knowing my opponent would be putting in a river bet. I then raised him the amount of his river bet, and reraised his reraise by the same amount, at which point he simply called instead of reraising. My set of nines beat his pair of kings, and I won a pot worth $71,400. If I'd led the betting on the river, or raised bigger, I'm fairly sure he wouldn't have put so many chips into the pot.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 54 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 8 times while in big blind (12%)
- 3 out of 8 times while in small blind (37%)
- 14 out of 38 times in other positions (36%)
- a total of 18 out of 54 (33%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $35,700
balance: $2,389,692

Thursday, October 27, 2011

A chip and a chair

An old poker adage says that all you need to win is a chip and a chair, especially since Jack “Treetop” Straus pulled off this feat in the '82 championship.

James McManus, "Positively Fifth Street"

Last night, I didn't get all the way down to a single chip left. However, it sometimes felt that way; I'd work hard to bring my stack up near its starting amount, only to see it fall back again. The fact that I was able to end the night in the black was due to three qualities which begin with the letter p and one which begins with an l - patience, perseverance, pluck, and luck. I was underwater for 152 of the 176 hands I played (86%).

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 176 hands and saw flop:
- 31 out of 33 times while in big blind (93%)
- 25 out of 32 times while in small blind (78%)
- 87 out of 111 times in other positions (78%)
- a total of 143 out of 176 (81%)
Pots won at showdown - 16 of 40 (40%)
Pots won without showdown - 22

delta: $25,850
balance: $2,353,992

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Imagination failure

Last night, I lost due to a failure on the final hand to imagine what my opponent had, even though his betting pattern was telling me plainly enough. I'd hit a stealth two pair on the flop, and it was the top two. I've been living off stealth twos lately, and was getting pretty complacent about them. I got into a betting war with one opponent after the flop, and finally decided to go all in. My complacency was informing me that he also had a stealth two, but with the top and bottom pair. Wrong! He'd flopped a straight, and it held up on the turn and river.

Now that it's over, I can talk about my latest winning streak. It's the second longest of my poker career, at 12. I really thought I had a shot at extending it long enough to hit the golden ratio; I only needed to win 5 more. I'm confident I'll hit the golden ratio before the end of the year.

delta: $-40,000
balance: $2,328,142

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Take your time but hurry up

I've mentioned before a great saying I picked up from one of my high school math teachers: "Take your time but hurry up". He'd say it to the class before every test. The point was that you couldn't rush, but you also couldn't dawdle. This philosophy applies to many things in life besides math tests. It certainly applies to poker, especially when you've joined a table with some really high rollers (as I did last night). At such a table, the risk-taking of your opponents essentially forces you to take more risk to win a hand than you might normally take; the upside is that when you do win, you're more likely to win big.

The number of hands you play at a risk-taking table should be less than the number you'd play at a conservative table; the reason is that one of the following two outcomes should be quickly reached:

1. you hit the felt
2. you win a monster pot, and call it a night

On my penultimate hand of the night, I won a pot worth $106,000 with two pair, jacks and tens.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 24 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 3 times while in big blind (66%)
- 1 out of 3 times while in small blind (33%)
- 8 out of 18 times in other positions (44%)
- a total of 11 out of 24 (45%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 3 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $66,000
balance: $2,368,142

Monday, October 24, 2011

Back to black

With a huge chip gain on Saturday night, I went back to black on Saturdays in the aggregate. Now every weekday aggregate is in the black:

Sun: 66,928
Mon: 344,606
Tue: 95,176
Wed: 1,099,289
Thu: 114,521
Fri: 468,083
Sat: 24,797

Just as an aside, I really like the Amy Winehouse song "Back to Black".

During the course of Saturday night's session, my number of live chips reached an all-time maximum: $178,200. What I mean by live chips is the number of chips I had in play at the table, not the total number of chips in my bankroll. I wasn't able to sustain that height, but still managed to have my sixth best session ever.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 113 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 16 times while in big blind (75%)
- 7 out of 15 times while in small blind (46%)
- 47 out of 82 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 66 out of 113 (58%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 19 (57%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $105,798
balance: $2,302,142

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Highest and driest

Last night, I had another high and dry session - my third in the last four sessions. I hate to say it, but these are the good old days again. Why would I hate to say such a thing? Since I know these good old days can't last, at least at this insanely great (to steal a Steve Jobs instensifier) level. Of these three high and dry sessions, this latest saw me increase my stack by the largest amount; that's why I'm calling it my highest and driest.

On the penultimate hand of the night, I won a pot worth $28,500 with two pair, aces and eights. A winning two pair is recently my favorite way to end the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 36 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 7 times while in big blind (71%)
- 3 out of 7 times while in small blind (42%)
- 11 out of 22 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 19 out of 36 (52%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 5 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $36,400
balance: $2,196,344

Friday, October 21, 2011

Pizza joint

Last night, on my penultimate hand, I won a pot worth $36,500 with a pizza joint. You might well wonder what I mean by that. As you know, I have fun making up my own poker lingo. I think this may be the first time I've made up a name for a hand. Back in the distant past, when I was a college student in Cambridge, there was a wonderful pizza joint named "Three Aces". Not only did it have great pizza, but it had some state of the art video games; that's where I first played Pac Man. I just googled to discover that "Three Aces" is no more; that's a shame. Sic transit gloria mundi!

I seem to have contracted a mild addiction to looking at the underwater percentage stat; last night, I had another high and dry session.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 38 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
- 5 out of 8 times while in small blind (62%)
- 20 out of 25 times in other positions (80%)
- a total of 29 out of 38 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $20,684
balance: $2,159,944

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Dolphin leap

In keeping with my recent use of aquatic metaphor, I ended last night's session with a dolphin leap. That is, I was underwater for most of the session, but managed to leap out of the water and into the sunlight at the end. The more I have sessions like that, the easier they seem. Almost the only requirement is plain patience! It's such a simple prescription, but not always easy to adhere to.

On the penultimate hand of the night, I won a pot worth $19,200 with two pair, nines and sevens.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 61 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
- 5 out of 9 times while in small blind (55%)
- 27 out of 42 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 40 out of 61 (65%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 9 (44%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $9,100
balance: $2,139,260

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

High and dry

Last night, the session after I was inspired to come up with the underwater percentage statistic, I was underwater 0% of the time! I haven't checked exactly how rare that is for me, but I'm sure it's very rare. First, it requires winning the first hand, something that I should only be able to do one time in seven (since I invariably join a table with 6 players). Next, it requires not hitting a bad patch, and bad patches are endemic to poker. Finally, it requires the will to quit while I'm ahead, even though it's likely I'll want to continue playing. Add that all up, and I'd estimate that the odds of me having a high and dry session are about one in fifty. Of course, high and dry sessions aren't important; what's important is to have sessions in the black. Enough sessions in the black, and you get into the blue :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 30 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 5 times while in big blind (40%)
- 2 out of 5 times while in small blind (40%)
- 11 out of 20 times in other positions (55%)
- a total of 15 out of 30 (50%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 4 (75%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $30,400
balance: $2,130,160

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Underwater percentage

Last night's session inspired me to come up with another poker stat. I call this one the underwater percentage; that is, the percentage of times when your stack at the start of a hand is below its original amount. The most impressive underwater percentage for a winning session of the ones I've computed so far comes from the session I played the Saturday before last, when fully 120 of the 122 hands I played started with my stack underwater, for 98.36%. Last night, I was underwater for 76 of 85 hands, or 89.41%.

It's not a particularly meaningful stat, but it's still kind of fun to look at. The bigger the number, the more you have to be proud of, or thankful for, or some combination of the two. The thing is, you have to expect to be playing underwater the majority of the time; that's just the nature of poker. You have to wait your turn to win, and while you're waiting, you're underwater. It's certainly nothing to worry about.

On the penultimate hand of last night's session, I won a pot worth $19,000 with two pair, sixes and fours.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 85 hands and saw flop:
- 16 out of 19 times while in big blind (84%)
- 14 out of 19 times while in small blind (73%)
- 35 out of 47 times in other positions (74%)
- a total of 65 out of 85 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 9 of 16 (56%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $6,750
balance: $2,099,760

Monday, October 17, 2011

Desperation bets

On Saturday night, I doubled up on the third hand. I'd hit a set of sevens on the flop, raised to $800 that round, raised to $11,600 on the turn, and went all in on the river. The fact that I got a caller on the river really surprised me. Either that player was really bad, or he made a really bad read. Thinking it over, the only way his decision could have been based on a bad read was if he interpreted my river bet as a desperation bet. When you know your hand is beat, you either have to fold or make a desperation bet - a very large bet meant to dissuade callers. If you get called, you're toast. I very rarely make desperation bets.

The ironic thing is, if you're playing against someone who thinks he can read desperation bets, you're better off going all in with a strong hand than trying to make a value bet! I may have somehow sensed that that particular opponent would be fooled by an all in bet at that particular moment, but it's much more likely I simply lucked out.

After that huge pot, my stack descended slowly but surely back to its starting amount. It even dipped below it briefly. Shortly after I'd gone back into the black, the whole table quit on me.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 14 times while in big blind (64%)
- 6 out of 13 times while in small blind (46%)
- 38 out of 59 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 53 out of 86 (61%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 11 (45%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $3,400
balance: $2,093,010

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Into the blue

Last night, I went into the blue again. That's my shorthand for growing my stack to a new all-time high. From up there, all you see is blue sky. Getting into the blue is a great feeling; it makes you believe that anything is possible.

On the penultimate hand of the night, I made an ace high straight on the turn, called two all-in bets, and won a pot worth $74,800.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 71 hands and saw flop:
- 13 out of 15 times while in big blind (86%)
- 8 out of 15 times while in small blind (53%)
- 27 out of 41 times in other positions (65%)
- a total of 48 out of 71 (67%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 7 (85%)
Pots won without showdown - 14

delta: $55,850
balance: $2,089,610

Friday, October 14, 2011

House on fourth street

One of the really fun things about poker is that there are multiple ways to describe the same thing, which you can vary at your whim. For example, another name for the river is fifth street, and another name for the turn is fourth street. Last night, in my penultimate hand, I made a full house on fourth street, went all in, and won a pot worth $49,600.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 48 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
- 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
- 13 out of 32 times in other positions (40%)
- a total of 23 out of 48 (47%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 8 (37%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $9,000
balance: $2,033,760

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Fwopping

Faithful readers of this blog will remember that fwep is an acronym I coined which stands for "fold with extreme prejudice". You might be guessing that since I'm mentioning fwepping, last night I might have fwepped a lot, but you'd be wrong. Last night, I fwopped a lot. Don't worry, I haven't told you what fwop stands for yet, so you can be forgiven for drawing a blank. Fwop stands for "fold without pain" (I know, I had to use a vowel from within a word in order to eke out a pronounceable acronym; sue me :-).

Folding without pain is when you have no regrets about folding, and not even a scintilla of doubt about the propriety of doing so. Fwepping has emotion attached to it, but fwopping has no emotion, just austere, beautiful, Vulcan-like logic. I foresee little fwepping in my poker future, but large quantities of fwopping. To paraphrase Corinthians, when I was a poker child, I bet as a child, I called as a child, and I folded as a child; but now that I'm a poker adult, I've put away childish things.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 67 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 9 times while in big blind (66%)
- 4 out of 10 times while in small blind (40%)
- 16 out of 48 times in other positions (33%)
- a total of 26 out of 67 (38%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $11,700
balance: $2,024,760

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Wavelength

The title of this post comes from a classic song by Van Morrison which I like a lot. It's a song about how a man is turned on when his lover gets him on her wavelength. I never thought about it before, but I think it's pretty important who's the sender and who's the receiver. You notice it's not the man who gets the woman on his wavelength, but the woman who gets the man on hers.

I think there's a nice parallel here with Lady Luck. When I play my best poker, I'm not sending at all; I'm merely a receiver. That might not sound like a lot, but it's actually a very hard thing to do. It's the easiest thing in the world to tell yourself that you're a good player, but when you do so, you're sending (if only to yourself). Poker is all about receiving; you must receive as much information as you can, and only act when the information warrants it. You have to be patient, and wait for Lady Luck to get you on her wavelength!

On Saturday night, it took me 121 hands to get into the black; when I finally did, I won a pot worth $17,200 without a showdown. I had pocket rockets, and no one called my final bet.

Work has been busy lately, and I haven't had a chance to play; I've really been missing it and am psyched I'm going to play tonight!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 122 hands and saw flop:
- 19 out of 23 times while in big blind (82%)
- 20 out of 24 times while in small blind (83%)
- 56 out of 75 times in other positions (74%)
- a total of 95 out of 122 (77%)
Pots won at showdown - 14 of 25 (56%)
Pots won without showdown - 19

delta: $9,600
balance: $2,013,060

Saturday, October 8, 2011

The land of the ones

Years ago (truth be told, decades ago), when I was in college, I occasionally played Risk with my friends. I'd never played it before college, and haven't played it since, but had fun playing it then. In case you don't know, it's a board game where the object is to conquer the world, played with dice and pieces representing army troops. The world is divided into countries, and you try to control as many countries as you can. Each country can only have armies of one of the players occupying it. To conquer a country, you have to use troops of yours from neighboring countries which you already control, and face them off against the occupying army. The battle is decided by dice rolls; if you roll a higher number than your opponent, you get to remove some of his troops from the board; if he rolls a higher number than you, he gets to remove some of your troops from the board. You conquer a country when you've removed the last of the enemy troops from it; at that point, you move troops of your own onto it from the neighboring country you attacked it from. You now control it. What often happens when a player starts conquering countries is that he'll extend himself too much, moving the bulk of his troops into the conquered country, leaving only a token force behind for defense in the country he attacked from. The smallest number of troops you're allowed to leave is one. What this strategy often creates is what one of my college friends dubbed "the land of the ones". This is when a player for the most part has only one troop in each of the countries he owns. If this player doesn't succeed in conquering the world, he's left himself open to devastating attacks from the other players; they can march through his countries like a knife through warm butter.

I like the phrase "the land of the ones". I like it so much that I'm going to use it in a new context, with a new meaning. In hold'em, at least as it is played on the PokerStars site, the maximum number of players at a table is nine. That means that, all things being equal, you should expect to win 1 out of 9 hands, or 11.11111111... percent of the time. Hence, the land of the ones. The trouble with the land of the ones is that this is a very low percentage, and it's easy to get used to the better odds when there are less than nine players at the table and then not sufficiently account for the worsened odds when the table fills up again.

As I've mentioned a couple of times before, I invariably join a table which has exactly 6 players; I become the seventh. Therefore, my poker radio is tuned to the frequency of winning 1 out of 7 times, on the average, or 14.28 percent of the time. If two more players join the table after me, I keep playing as if I still have 1 in 7 odds, and therein lies the trouble.

As you might expect from this long preamble, for most of last night's lengthy session, the table had the full complement of nine players. I played pretty well, but eventually hit the felt on the 94th hand. I then reupped for the max, but continued my descent. When I managed to bring my stack back up to $20K after falling all the way to $9K, I figured I'd seen the best of my luck and called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 135 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 17 times while in big blind (47%)
- 9 out of 19 times while in small blind (47%)
- 50 out of 99 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 67 out of 135 (49%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-60,000
balance: $2,003,460

Friday, October 7, 2011

Home sweet home

Last night, I made a triumphant return to hold'em. I immediately felt at home, and didn't detect any rust in my game. It certainly didn't hurt that I got dealt some awesome hands! In one hold'em session, I made more play money than I had in thirty deuce sessions. I should really just stick to the game I know and love the best. Three million play dollars, here I come!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 60 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 14 times while in big blind (57%)
- 9 out of 12 times while in small blind (75%)
- 22 out of 34 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 39 out of 60 (65%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 15 (46%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $40,487
balance: $2,063,460

Thursday, October 6, 2011

A moratorium on deuce

Last night, I lost my fourth deuce session in a row to fall back to the golden ratio in deuce (20 winning sessions, 10 losing sessions). I'm going to take a moratorium on deuce for a while; I'm tired of losing. I really miss hold'em, so that's what I'm going to go back to playing. Deuce was a fun experiment, but I find the luck ratio in the game is just too high for my taste. This is essentially a repeat of my experience with Omaha, with the exception that I'm sure I won't go back to Omaha, but may give deuce another try sometime.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 45 hands
Pots won if drawing - 3 of 23 (13%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 7 (14%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-8,000
balance: $2,022,973

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Frisky early's evil twin

Last night, I was frisky early again, and it cost me. The problem was that I was frisky early in two different ways, and one of them is an evil twin. It's okay to be frisky early in a session; however, it's very bad to be frisky early in a betting round. Why? The reason's simple - because you don't know how many people acting behind you might get frisky too. While there are many hands which you wouldn't feel bad about going heads up with, there aren't too many you'd feel good about going up against two or more opponents with. The odds of you winning drop dramatically with every additional opponent. This leads to my very latest deuce rule: never call a big bet or raise when you're not the last person to act unless you have a super strong hand (i.e., a #1, #2, or #3).

I hit the felt on my very first hand of the session, acting frisky early in both the good and the bad sense. Actually, I doubly misplayed this hand; not only were there people to act after me, but someone who acted before me had already called the big bet of the player who opened the betting. Not only was I guaranteed to be going up against two opponents, there was a chance I'd be going up against more than two. As it turned out, four of us went to showdown; clearly, horrendous odds. I hope I've learned my lesson!

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 45 hands
Pots won if drawing - 12 of 33 (36%)
Pots won at showdown - 9 of 21 (42%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $-2,085
balance: $2,030,973

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Deuce fool's gold

Last night, I played great except for one hand. On that hand, I fell victim to deuce fool's gold. I was dealt 7 5 2 Q T, and a player with more than twice my chips raised to just over $2K before the first draw. I couldn't stop myself from calling; my eyes had gotten "as big as saucers" when I saw that I had three cards to a #1. My opponent stood pat on every draw; he'd been dealt a 9 low. The best I could come up with was a pair of sevens. Felt city. I lost $4,620 on the hand.

My new rule is that I won't call big raises before the first draw unless I have four cards to a 7 low (or better). On a positive note, I managed to obey my recent all-in percentage rule; I went all in on just 3 of 83 hands, for 3.6%, well below my cutoff of 7%.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 83 hands
Pots won if drawing - 20 of 58 (34%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 19 (52%)
Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $-2,224
balance: $2,033,058

Monday, October 3, 2011

Two deadly hands

On Saturday night, I played 89 hands. I lost massive amounts of chips on two of them. If those two hands had somehow never occurred, I would have lost a mere $170 on the night. Since they did occur, however, I lost a hefty $8,000. Looking back over the hand histories of those two deadly hands, I see that I got frisky on the first one, but played the second one soundly.

What I did wrong on the first deadly hand was to make a big bet after the third draw, when I'd stood pat. I had an 8 6 5 4 3, which is certainly a reasonable hand, but not a hand to bet heavily on. I lost to a 7 low. If I'd had the sense to check, and the 7 low had bet heavily, I might have had the additional sense to lay down the hand. As it actually played out, however, my big bet essentially had me pot-committed when the 7 low raised to put me all in.

On the second deadly hand, I was subjected to some cruel and unusual treatment (that's a favorite phrase of my father's, by the way). My 7 6 5 3 2 low lost to a 7 6 4 3 2. To rub salt in the wound, the winning hand was made on a 3 discard draw. The odds of that happening are minuscule.

It feels like I've entered the poker doldrums, when one's winning percentage tends towards what I call the lead ratio - one winning session per losing session. Don't get me wrong, though; I'm not discouraged. I know I'll break out of the doldrums sometime.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 89 hands
Pots won if drawing - 14 of 63 (22%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 19 (52%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-8,000
balance: $2,035,282

Saturday, October 1, 2011

All-in percentage

Last night, I had a nice rebound from the disaster of the session before it. I didn't hit the felt once, and almost quadrupled my starting stack amount. The contrast between the two sessions inspired me to come up with a new (at least to me) poker statistic - all-in percentage. In the disaster session, I went all in on 20 of the 117 hands, for a whopping 17%. In last night's session, I only went all in on 2 of the 31 hands, which is a mere 6.5%.

My latest deuce rule of thumb - keep your all-in percentage at or below 7%.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 31 hands
Pots won if drawing - 7 of 31 (22%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $7,285
balance: $2,043,282

Friday, September 30, 2011

No lapis for neo

Now that it's over, I can talk about my latest streak, and the ratio I just missed achieving. You know about the golden ratio - twice as many winning sessions as losing ones. You know about the platinum ratio - three times as many winning sessions as losing ones. The ratio you don't know about, which I only recently dreamed up, is what I call the lapis ratio - four times as many winning sessions as losing ones. Lapis, of course, is shorthand for lapis lazuli. I picked lapis as the name for this ratio since for me it has the aura of something extraordinary, something magical, and something mystical.

Had I won last night's session, I would have achieved lapis in deuce. Needless to say, I didn't win. Not only didn't I win, I lost repeatedly. In fact, I set a personal record for the most times I've ever hit the felt in a single session - 7. If this had occurred at a $100/$200 table, I would have lost $280,000! Since it was only a $5/$10 table, though, I only lost $14,000 - a cheap lesson.

Ironically, one of the players I was an ATM for was "Aggresso", who'd been my ATM the previous session. This player is no fun to play with, and drags down the level of play of the whole table. I'll be on the lookout for him in the future and avoid joining tables where he's playing. One of the other players kept up a running criticism of "Aggresso's" idiotic playing style all night, but it had no effect. This critic eventually left in disgust. Would that I'd done the same at the same time! I would have saved myself about $8K.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 117 hands
Pots won if drawing - 21 of 63 (33%)
Pots won at showdown - 14 of 33 (42%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-14,000
balance: $2,035,997

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Personal ATMs

I'm not sure why this should be so, but I've found that when two players at a poker table go head to head often enough, one tends to dominate the other, using him like his own personal ATM. The second time I hit the felt five times in succession at a deuce table, I was somebody else's ATM; last night, someone else was mine. I knew from observing how this particular player played that he went all in way too often; all I had to do was wait for strong hands to come my way, then stick with them when "Aggresso" went all in. Luckily for me, no one else at the table really wanted any of his action, so I was able to go heads up against him for the most part.

The first bad news of the session was that I didn't have the discipline to quit when I got up over $7K. The next bit of bad news was that I hit the felt three times. The good news was that my personal ATM allowed me to recoup all my losses and end the night with a small profit.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 104 hands
Pots won if drawing - 25 of 80 (31%)
Pots won at showdown - 18 of 29 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $430
balance: $2,049,997

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Jumping

As you play deuce, the size of your stack jumps up and down. Of course, that's true in all poker variants, to a greater or lesser extent. I think the volatility of the jumping is much greater in deuce than in Hold'em, though. The reason is that deuce forces you to make many more "hopeful bets" than Hold'em does. You almost never know the real strength of your hand in deuce until after the third draw, whereas you can have a very good idea of the strength of your hand in Hold'em right when you see the flop. You have to undergo three betting rounds to know the strength of your hand in deuce, whereas you only have to undergo one betting round to acquire the same amount of information in Hold'em.

Once you get accustomed to the jumping around, you stop worrying about it. What you're doing is playing a timing game; you're waiting for the right moments to go all in. You're always trying to hear the rhythm of the cards, and step to that beat! You also need to be able to hear it when the cards tell you "Enough! Take your winnings and go home."

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 67 hands
Pots won if drawing - 16 of 52 (30%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 20 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $2,278
balance: $2,049,567