Tuesday, December 31, 2013

yaps: lolhs

Last night, I doubled up on hand 3. I didn't quit right then; I play poker largely for entertainment, and quitting after only playing three hands isn't much fun. I ended up giving back all my winnings, and even dipped into the red; a strong finish put me back in the black. Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, I was inspired to come up with yaps (yet another poker statistic). I call this one lolhs. No, it doesn't stand for Laughing Out Loud High School :-) It stands for Last On the Low High Scale. The Low High Scale is what it sounds like - the scale which ranges from your low balance of the session to your high balance of the session. Last on the Low High Scale is where your final balance of the session falls on the scale, in terms of a percentage. If you end on your high, your lolhs will be 100%; if you end on your low, your lolhs will be 0%. Last night, my low balance was $33,722, my high balance was $103,104, and my final balance was $65,939. The lolhs calculation is as follows:

lolhs = (last - low) / (high - low)

So my lolhs value for last night's session was 32217 /  69382, or .464342.

Happy New Year!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 109 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 17 times while in big blind (76%)
 - 12 out of 17 times while in small blind (70%)
 - 43 out of 75 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 68 out of 109 (62%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 20 (40%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $15,939
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,846,779
balance: $7,203,732

Monday, December 30, 2013

My deepest cash dive

From the beginning of my quest to gain a million play dollars, I've measured my progress in milestones of $100,000. That amount works well as a negative milestone also. My deepest tournament dive is over a million play dollars, more than 10 milestones. On Friday night, I set a record for my deepest cash game dive to date - over $600,000, more than 6 milestones. The last time I was in the blue wasn't that long ago - November 13th, to be precise. Of the 35 sessions I've played since then, I've lost a whopping 19. It's high time to right the ship!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 84 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 12 times while in big blind (58%)
 - 4 out of 12 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 35 out of 60 times in other positions (58%)
 - a total of 46 out of 84 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 9 (44%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,830,840
balance: $7,187,793

Friday, December 27, 2013

Got there or not there

When a player is on a draw, and makes it (either on the turn or on the river), the common poker phrase is that he or she "got there". When you get there, you expect to win the vast majority of the time. I can't remember ever folding when I've gotten there. The thing is, folding when you've gotten there is sometimes the correct play, and should be in your arsenal. I realize that it's not in mine yet. I sure could have used that weapon last night :-) On the final hand of the session, I was on a straight draw, and got there on the turn. When an opponent bet $29,000, I raised it up to $39,899, and was all in. As it turned out, she'd gotten there on the turn as well, with a better straight. I was actually drawing dead on the river. Her huge river bet should have alerted me to the fact that though I'd "gotten there", in actuality I wasn't anywhere at all :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 75 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 10 times while in big blind (60%)
 - 7 out of 10 times while in small blind (70%)
 - 30 out of 55 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 43 out of 75 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 6 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,880,840
balance: $7,237,793

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Counterfeit straight

On Christmas Eve, I played well enough to win, but ended up losing. Hey, it happens. I hit the felt on hand 5, when an opponent hit a 3 outer on me. I'd made a king high straight on the turn, but the board made the same straight on the river, counterfeiting mine. My opponent had an ace, and therefore had the nut straight. If I'd won that hand, which I had a 93.18% chance of doing after the turn, I would have come out with a profit on the night, but it just wasn't meant to be. I have to admit that I'm in an extended slump. The good thing about slumps is that they always eventually end :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 95 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 15 times while in big blind (53%)
 - 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
 - 35 out of 66 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 51 out of 95 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 16 (43%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-38,326
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,930,840
balance: $7,287,793

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Not the top three I was looking for

Last night, I had a top three career hand, but I could have done without it. I lost the third most chips I've ever lost on a cash game no limit hold'em hand. It marked the abrupt end of a session that had been successful up to that point. Here are the top ten hands on the unwanted list:

   -102200 Ah Jd pokerstars\logs\2012\0602\hands 121
    -97932 Qd Ad pokerstars\logs\2013\0613\hands  53
    -71323 Kc Td pokerstars\logs\2013\1223\hands 136
    -65982 Ac Ks pokerstars\logs\2013\1126\hands   8
    -65789 Kh Qh pokerstars\logs\2012\0417\hands  21
    -56200 3c 3s pokerstars\logs\2011\1022\hands  85
    -54429 Kc Kd pokerstars\logs\2013\0611\hands  60
    -53470 As Jh pokerstars\logs\2013\0120\hands  49
    -52200 Kd 2h pokerstars\logs\2012\0414\hands  61
    -52000 3h 3c pokerstars\logs\2012\0705\hands 129


It's no surprise that my worst hand, AJo, shows up on this list twice. Thanks to last night's final hand, KTo (king ten offsuit) has rocketed up to number 8 on my worst hands list.

Last night's last hand was another case of the imp of the perverse. I knew I was most probably beaten, but just couldn't stop myself from calling. The longer the session, the more likely it is that the imp will appear. I should have quit before it had the chance. Live and learn!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 136 hands and saw flop:
 - 12 out of 17 times while in big blind (70%)
 - 8 out of 16 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 48 out of 103 times in other positions (46%)
 - a total of 68 out of 136 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 11 (72%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,969,166
balance: $7,326,119

Monday, December 23, 2013

Showdown bonsai

Knowing when to go to showdown is one of the best skills to have in poker. You will never win as much as you'll win at showdown, and you will never lose as much as you'll lose at showdown. It's actually an excellent plan to go to showdown as sparingly as possible. I call this strategy "Showdown bonsai". You must always be asking yourself, "Do I really need to go to showdown on this hand? Or can I simply prune my showdown tree, keeping it small and beautiful?" Last night, I kept my showdown tree small and beautiful. I only went to showdown twice, and won both times.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 49 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 4 out of 6 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 19 out of 37 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 28 out of 49 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $16,014
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,019,166
balance: $7,376,119

Sunday, December 22, 2013

The shocking truth

Sometimes, the truth is really shocking. In researching my type 2 Double Stuf record, I discovered that I've hit the felt way more frequently than I'd thought I had. In 561 sessions for which I have the data, I've hit the felt at least once in 171 of them. That translates to 30%. Ouch! My mental model was that I hit the felt in about 10% of the sessions I play. Of course, not all of the sessions where I hit the felt were losing ones. Here are the Double Stuf stats: of the 561 sessions, there were 81 in which I hit the felt one time, then reupped for the max. Of those 81, 33 were winning sessions. That translates to 40%. Here again, my mental model failed me. I was pretty sure my success rate for this type of session would be over 50%.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 121 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 14 times while in big blind (57%)
 - 8 out of 16 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 46 out of 91 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 62 out of 121 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 14 (28%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $-22,285
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,003,152
balance: $7,360,105

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Double Stuf poker

You may be thinking there's a typo in the title of this post. If so, you'd be wrong. I'm merely stealing a trademarked name and repurposing it. Not to keep you in the dark, "Double Stuf" is a type of Oreo cookie. More specifically, it's an Oreo cookie with double the normal amount of cream filling. What's Double Stuf poker? I'll explain, grasshopper. It's when you're playing with double the normal amount of chips. Sounds like fun, you say? Not always. There are two ways of going about this. One way is to double your starting stack. The other is to lose your whole starting stack and reup for the max. That second, inferior brand of Double Stuf is what I played last night. Fortunately for me, I was able to make it back into the black. At some point, I'll have to see what my record is in type 2 Double Stuf; my poker intuition tells me it's over 50%.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 104 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 14 times while in big blind (78%)
 - 8 out of 13 times while in small blind (61%)
 - 37 out of 77 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 56 out of 104 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 8 (87%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $23,931
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,025,437
balance: $7,382,390

Friday, December 20, 2013

Top 10 somehow

I generally have a pretty good idea whether a session qualifies as unusual in some way. Something just feels special about it. Another way to describe this is that I sense the lack of a recognizable pattern. I can't easily pigeonhole the session. When I get this feeling, I always hope that the session turns out to be the most extreme example of a type I never thought about before. It's always fun to have a #1 session in some category, even if it was a losing session :-) Even hitting the 10 ten in a category is nothing to sneeze at, considering the number of sessions I've played.

Wednesday night's session didn't qualify as a #1 in any category, but it did make the top 10 in at least one. In fact, it made the top 5. What was the category, you ask? It was the losing sessions in which I've had the largest maximum positive deltas. Here are the top 5:

     54894 pokerstars\logs\2013\0611\hands (280)
     52300 pokerstars\logs\2012\0726\hands (22)
     47900 pokerstars\logs\2012\0106\hands (107)
     44700 pokerstars\logs\2013\0516\hands (13)
     43500 pokerstars\logs\2013\1218\hands (55)

The numbers in parentheses are the hand numbers when the maximum positive deltas were achieved.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 110 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 13 times while in big blind (76%)
 - 7 out of 14 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 40 out of 83 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 57 out of 110 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 13 (46%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-64,654
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,001,506
balance: $7,358,459

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The wrong price

Poker players are always looking for the right price. That's shorthand for the right price to call. You have the right price to call when the pot odds are better than the inverse of your odds of having the best hand. There's a flip side to this coin, however. When you're ahead in the hand, it's incumbent on you to give your opponents the wrong price. If you don't, they're liable to come along for the ride, and if they do, they could outdraw you. That's what happened to me on just the second hand of last night's session. Since I lost $49,500 on it, I decided to make it my last hand. Here's how it went down: I was dealt cowboys (a pair of kings). I hit a set on the turn, and bet $10,000 into a pot of $28,000. That meant that an opponent calling my bet would be getting nearly 4-1 pot odds. That's just too juicy for a lot of players to pass up, even when they should know better. As it turned out, I was up against an opponent with an open-ended straight draw. He only had a 1 in 5 chance of winning, but hit the low end to make his straight on the river. I actually did two things wrong on this hand:

1. I didn't give him the wrong price to call on the turn (or, perhaps more accurately, a "wrong enough price")
2. I failed to realize the river card put a straight draw into play

I'm sure I set a personal "best" for losing a starting stack in the minimum number of hands :)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 2 hands and saw flop:
 - 0 out of 0 times while in big blind (0%)
 - 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 2 out of 2 times in other positions (100%)
 - a total of 2 out of 2 (100%)
 Pots won at showdown - 0 of 1 (0%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

 delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,066,160
balance: $7,423,113


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The grinder's merit badge

To be a successful poker player in the long run, you really have to be a grinder. What I mean by that is that you must be dogged in the pursuit of your goals, and not let anything set you back or get you down. You must be willing to accept the fact that you will not get rich quickly. With these characteristics in mind, I wondered if there were some way to prove a player is a grinder - a grinder's merit badge, in other words. I think I've found one. As you may know, one of the data sets I generate for each session is a list of the hand deltas, sorted in descending order by absolute value. Looking at this data from last night's session, which was a winning one, I saw something which I knew must be pretty rare for winning sessions - the top value in the list was a negative delta, i.e., an amount I had lost on a hand. I reasoned that only a grinder can have the top value in such a list be negative.

To see how rare such an occurrence is, I ran the numbers. Of the 557 sessions for which I have the requisite data for generating the lists, 381 were winning ones. Of those 381, only 25 meet the criterion.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 73 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 8 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 2 out of 10 times while in small blind (20%)
 - 34 out of 55 times in other positions (61%)
 - a total of 44 out of 73 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 8 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $11,656
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,116,160
balance: $7,473,113

Monday, December 16, 2013

A patient century

On Saturday night, I hit the felt on hand 23. After reupping, I did some serious grinding. It took a long time, but I finally got into the black on hand 113. That marked the first time I was above water. I call 100 hands a century, appropriating (or more accurately, misappropriating) this term from the British sport of cricket. To wait a century before turning a profit, that takes what I call patience :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 120 hands and saw flop:
 - 12 out of 16 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 6 out of 15 times while in small blind (40%)
 - 47 out of 89 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 65 out of 120 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 18 (44%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $27,493
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,104,504
balance: $7,461,457

Saturday, December 14, 2013

A month in the making

Last night, I managed to do something I hadn't done in over a month - namely, win a third session in a row. That sounds like a ridiculously easy task, but I'm here to tell you there are stretches when it's clearly not. I've been in the poker doldrums for a while, and would dearly love to break out of them. The funny thing is, only by being patient will I be able to break out. The more patient I am, the faster I'll break out. It seems counter-intuitive, but that doesn't make it any the less true.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 24 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 3 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 2 out of 3 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 12 out of 18 times in other positions (66%)
 - a total of 17 out of 24 (70%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 5 (80%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $21,288
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,098,299
balance: $7,455,252


Friday, December 13, 2013

Miniature house, pale flush

Sometimes, the most interesting features of a session are the times you managed to do a whole lot of nothing when you might have done a lot more. I didn't realize it at the time, but looking at the data, I see I had two premium hands last night where I made the bare minimum. On hand 30, I made a full house of aces full of jacks on the river, but only made a profit of $2,559. On hand 54, I flopped an ace high flush, but only made a profit of $4,969. That's what I call a miniature house and a pale flush!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 70 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 10 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 7 out of 9 times while in small blind (77%)
 - 33 out of 51 times in other positions (64%)
 - a total of 50 out of 70 (71%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 12 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $34,962
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,077,011
balance: $7,433,964

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Now I know how Tony G felt

Some years ago, there was a poker show on television called "The Big Game". I never saw it when it was being aired, but have since seen some great clips from it on the PokerStars TV website. Some of the most entertaining clips involved epic clashes, both poker and verbal, between Phil Hellmuth and Tony G. They're both well-known for harsh criticism of their opponents, so when they're sitting at the same table, you can expect real fireworks. On one of the shows, Tony G was relentless in his belittling of Hellmuth. He kept repeating, over and over, "I own you!".

Though I would never say that out loud to anyone, that's basically what I was thinking about one of my opponents last night. He and I went to showdown against each other four times, and I won all four. In fact, he was the only opponent I could beat at showdown :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 64 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 9 times while in big blind (88%)
 - 3 out of 9 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 22 out of 46 times in other positions (47%)
 - a total of 33 out of 64 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 10 (40%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $33,508
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,042,049
balance: $7,399,002

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Pockets four

Last night, I went broke with an "always going broke" hand. It was the second time in the session I hit the felt, and the last hand I played. I don't feel bad about it, since my hand was so strong. If I'd won it, I would have had a really nice profit on the night, despite hitting the felt on hand 11. The last hand had 2 notable features:

1. the pot was one of the biggest I can remember, $214,111
2. all four players who went to showdown had been dealt a pocket pair

I'd been dealt pocket threes, and hit a set on the flop. Unfortunately for me, one of my opponents hit a bigger set on the flop (tens). The other two "pocks" were kings and aces; neither of those players improved. If that hand wasn't a cooler, I don't know what is :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 48 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 5 out of 7 times while in small blind (71%)
 - 22 out of 35 times in other positions (62%)
 - a total of 32 out of 48 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,008,541
balance: $7,365,494

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

The call of action

There was a time when I found it easy to quit after a big early score. Not so much anymore. Why is that, I ask myself. I think I know. It's the call of action. It's a siren call; quite difficult to resist, unless your name happens to be Odysseus. The more action you've seen, the more you want to see. I realize I've just reduced poker to its most basic definition - it's a drug, in effect. That makes me a poker addict. I'm not proud of that, but I'm not ashamed, either. It's just a fact.

On Saturday night, on hand 14, I won a pot worth $93,944 with a queen high straight. $47,347 of that was other people's money. Instead of quitting, I ended up playing another 119 hands. Do I wish I'd quit earlier? Believe it or not, no :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 133 hands and saw flop:
 - 19 out of 25 times while in big blind (76%)
 - 17 out of 26 times while in small blind (65%)
 - 39 out of 82 times in other positions (47%)
 - a total of 75 out of 133 (56%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 21 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 19

delta: $11,020
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,108,541
balance: $7,465,494

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Wrong way on a one-way track

When you really love a song, its most powerful lyrics get stored somewhere where you can always access them; they share that characteristic with poignant lines of well-loved poems. The song lyric, or the line of poetry, will spring to mind when a situation arises which subconsciously you recognize as the same situation as the one in the song or poem.

"Runaway Train", by Soul Asylum, is one of my favorite songs. My favorite lyric from it is what I've chosen to title this post. Last night, I hit the felt on the final hand; I was playing my worst hand, yet again. Just as a reminder, my worst hand is ace jack offsuit, or AJo for short. The history of my AJo hands is a true tale of woe. I'm definitely going the wrong way down a one-way track, and I realize that I'll never get back. I now feel the only logical thing to do is fold every AJo hand I'm dealt from here on in. We'll see if I have the strength to do it!

For the record, I lost $9,000 with AJo on last night's final hand. In my poker career, I've lost a whopping $375,808 with AJo. My next worst hand, ATo, is a mere bagatelle in comparison; I've only lost $158,751 with it.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 159 hands and saw flop:
 - 25 out of 40 times while in big blind (62%)
 - 35 out of 43 times while in small blind (81%)
 - 47 out of 76 times in other positions (61%)
 - a total of 107 out of 159 (67%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 19 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 37

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,097,521
balance: $7,454,474

Friday, December 6, 2013

A session in the balance

The difference between success and failure in poker can sometimes hinge on a single outcome. Last night, I played for over two hours, and 140 hands; however, it was the result of just one hand, which took less than a minute to play, which sealed my fate. Even though I came out a loser on the night, I know I played well enough to win. Here's what happened:

On hand 26, I was dealt Ks Jh. The flop came Kc Ad Kd, and it was checked all around. The turn was 5s; I bet $500, then got into a raising war with another player I had covered, and ended up going all in. He'd been dealt 3h Kh, and hit a full house on the river. I was a 70.45% favorite after the turn, with an additional 22.73% chance of chopping the pot; that means I lost to a 6.82% dog.

Had the odds held up, I would have won a pot worth $67,230; instead, I lost $33,740. C'est la guerre!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 140 hands and saw flop:
 - 17 out of 20 times while in big blind (85%)
 - 13 out of 20 times while in small blind (65%)
 - 59 out of 100 times in other positions (59%)
 - a total of 89 out of 140 (63%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 16 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 21

delta: $-57,386
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,147,521
balance: $7,504,474

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Back-to-back improbabilities

I've certainly seen my share of improbable events at a poker table. In the vast majority of cases, they're separated by a large number of intervening, ho-hum, all-too-probable events. Once in a very great while, however, the improbable events happen back-to-back. It's akin to lightning striking twice. What can you do but shake your head, and simply marvel at what the poker gods can concoct?

Last night, on hand 30, I was dealt 8c 8h, and flopped a full house. The flop was Jh Jd 8s. I started the hand with $15,000, and ended it with nothing. I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt Js Jc, and had flopped quads. I ran the numbers, and it turns out my hand in combination with that flop beats 96.26 of all possible opponent holdings, and chops the pot with another 0.37 percent. I was extremely unlucky to run into one of the 3.37 percent of hands which could beat mine.

After reupping for the max, I immediately recouped all my losses, with interest. I was dealt As 8s, flopped top two pair, and made a full house on the turn. I ended up going all in on the turn, and two opponents went to showdown with me. I raked in a monster pot worth $155,750, and was done for the night.

By my current definition of poker rebound, that was the fourth best rebound of my career, and likely the first ever to occur on the first hand of a reup.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 32 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 4 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 0 out of 4 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 11 out of 24 times in other positions (45%)
 - a total of 15 out of 32 (46%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

 delta: $55,750
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,204,907
balance: $7,561,860


Wednesday, December 4, 2013

A quarter turn to the left

In general, when you run the numbers on heads up situations, the answers you get back have more than two significant digits. That's why I was surprised when I ran the numbers on last night's final hand. After the turn, I was a 25 percent dog up against a 75 percent favorite. That is, a 25.00 percent dog up against a 75.00 percent favorite. Not very surprisingly, considering I went all in on the turn, I hit the felt. Combining the street, my chance of winning, and the final outcome, it all came out to a quarter turn to the left :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 73 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 12 times while in big blind (58%)
 - 7 out of 13 times while in small blind (53%)
 - 31 out of 48 times in other positions (64%)
 - a total of 45 out of 73 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,149,157
balance: $7,506,110

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Personal best

Last night, at the end of the session, I set an interesting personal best. I achieved my biggest hand delta ever for a hand which didn't end up going to showdown. When there's a lot of money in the pot, most often one or more of your opponents will be priced in to call any river bet you make. The poker term for this is "pot committed". I'd been dealt 3d 6h, and the flop came 9d 3s 6c. I checked, then raised a $5,000 bet to $12,000 and got three callers. The turn was 4d; I bet $10,000 and got one caller. The river was Js; I bet $10,000 again and my opponent folded. I won a pot worth $79,000 without a showdown; $56,000 of this was other people's money.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 67 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 9 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 6 out of 9 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 26 out of 49 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 41 out of 67 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 9 (77%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $71,328
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,199,157
balance: $7,556,110

Monday, December 2, 2013

The camouflaged quit signal

Poker is a game of pattern recognition, but the patterns are not always, or even often, obvious. Sometimes they only appear after the fact, when you stare at the data long enough. I've never written about the camouflaged quit signal before, but I've thought about it, off and on, for quite a while. What do I mean by the camouflaged quit signal? For those of you who have ever done any day trading, which I tried my hand at recently, it's the poker equivalent of a particular trend line scenario. Last night's bar chart illustrates it quite well. There's a clear down trend in the first half of the session. That's followed by a period of prosperity above the trend line which lasts about a third of the session. After that, in the final sixth of the session, the trend line is rejoined. The correct play to make, I now believe, is to quit as soon as the trend line is rejoined, since rejoining it bodes continued descent and eventual bankruptcy. The trouble with this advice is that unless you keep a live bar chart up during your session, you're not going to realize when the trend line has been rejoined.

Of course, this theory is somewhat flawed; I came up with it based on a specific scenario whose outcome was already known, so it won't necessarily apply in the general case. I'm sure there are many times when I didn't hit the felt after rejoining a downward trend line. Unfortunately for me, last night wasn't one of them :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 10 times while in big blind (90%)
 - 6 out of 10 times while in small blind (60%)
 - 28 out of 56 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 43 out of 76 (56%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 11 (27%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,127,829
balance: $7,484,782

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Six thumps

As you may know, I often look at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of a session as inspiration for a blog post title. Looking at last night's chart, what springs immediately to mind is "six thumps". Six separate times, my stack took a significant jump upwards. In fact, those six jumps were the top six entries in the sorted list of the absolute values of the hand deltas.

Regular thumps are like regular heartbeats; you're not going to survive without them.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 97 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 13 times while in big blind (84%)
 - 9 out of 14 times while in small blind (64%)
 - 38 out of 70 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 58 out of 97 (59%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 12 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $17,690
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,177,829
balance: $7,534,782