The optimal number of bullets

I decided to take a look at my MTT-R NLHE data in terms of bullets fired. The results are eye-opening:

bullets   sum(delta)  count        avg

      2  $25,630,500     65   $394,315
      4   $8,864,000     37   $239,567
      3   $2,057,000     75    $27,426
      5     $173,000     30     $5,766
      1     $-50,000      1   $-50,000
      6    $-686,000      6  $-114,333
      7  $-3,186,000     14  $-227,571
      9  $-1,054,000      4  $-263,500
      8    $-800,000      2  $-400,000
     10    $-500,000      1  $-500,000

The conclusions seem clear - never add on, and never rebuy more than three times.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   117      74   15     6   714000

delta: $614,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,448,500
2017 balance: $30,811,055
balance: $42,228,885

$250,000 rebound

Last night, on the strength of a fifth place finish, I made a $250,000 rebound. That clocks in as the 13th best I've ever had. My best so far was for $650,000, back on June 24th of this year. It would be pretty cool to have a $1,000,000 rebound some day. The bad part about that is, you have to lose at least a million first :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   118      46   12     5   621000

delta: $421,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $29,834,500
2017 balance: $30,197,055
balance: $41,614,885

Almost another futile century

On Monday night, I failed to make the money, but still played well. I lost only half as much money as I had the session before, since I fired only half the bullets. Funny how that works :-) I just missed achieving a second MTT-R NLHE futile century. I'm glad I did, since I want 100 hands to be as good a guarantee of making the money as there can be.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    98      52   12    16        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $29,413,500
2017 balance: $29,776,055
balance: $41,193,885

10 bullets

Last night, I fired 10 bullets in the only tournament I entered. That's a ridiculous number, the most I've ever fired in a single tournament. I lost a cool half million play dollars. The reason I fired so many is that there were several players at my table who were routinely going all in. I waited for premium hands, but even premium hands don't do so well when you're all in against more than one opponent. I really wish some of the usual suspects didn't habitually play in such a brain-dead way.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      59   12    33        0

delta: $-500,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $29,663,500
2017 balance: $30,026,055
balance: $41,443,885

.593

The title of this post is my current lifetime adding on percentage in MTT-R NLHE; as I've come to believe, you want to keep this number as low as possible. I started out my MTT-R NLHE career by adding on every single time. On Friday night, I didn't add on and just missed the money; however, I don't think adding on would have substantially increased my chances of turning a profit. When I get my adding on percentage below .500, I'll do a little dance to celebrate :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    85      58   12    13        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,163,500
2017 balance: $30,526,055
balance: $41,943,885

.373

The title of this post is my current lifetime batting average in MTT-R NLHE; that is, the rate at which I make the money. One of my long-term goals, as I've mentioned before, is to have a lifetime batting average over .400 in MTT-R NLHE. It's a stretch, but not impossible. I helped the cause last night by going 1 for 1 :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   100      56   12     9   327000

delta: $177,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,263,500
2017 balance: $30,626,055
balance: $42,043,885

Bubbling the bubble

Last night, I came in 14th in a tournament where 12 places were paid. So you could say I bubbled the bubble :-) Any time you bubble, or bubble the bubble, you're playing well. Playing well bodes well for your long term prospects, whether or not you make the money in the short term. This is all a long-winded way of saying I played well; I'll shut up now :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      58   12    14        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,086,500
2017 balance: $30,449,055
balance: $41,866,885

Crybaby

I first used this blog post title on February 12, 2016. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

There are certain universal truths:

1. no one wants to see your vacation pictures
2. no one wants to read your blog
3. no one wants to listen to your bad beat sob stories

In general, I've been very good about not running counter to these truths. Although I'd like people to read my blog, I don't beg them to, and I write it for myself anyway. I very rarely tell bad beat sob stories. I think people who do are just crybabies. I'm going to step out of character briefly, and inhabit the role of crybaby.

Here are my bad beat sob stories from last night's tournament:

sob story 1: on hand 24, I was dealt pocket kings, and went all in preflop against two opponents. After the turn, I was a 66.67% favorite, but hit the felt when one of my opponents spiked a straight on the river.

sob story 2: on hand 30, I was dealt ATo (ace ten offsuit), and went all in preflop against two opponents. After the flop, I was an 85.94% favorite, but hit the felt when one of my opponents spiked a straight on the turn.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      41    9    20        0

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,236,500
2017 balance: $30,599,055
balance: $42,016,885

Blue counts by year

Nothing too interesting happened in last night's session, so I decided I'd write about a poker statistic instead. The one I picked is blue count. Within any particular window of observation, the blue count is the number of sessions where one's overall balance reaches a new all-time high. Here are my blue counts by year:

2009: 14 of 128 (0.109375)
2010: 29 of 208 (0.139423)
2011: 79 of 253 (0.312253)
2012: 67 of 298 (0.224832)
2013: 25 of 311 (0.080386)
2014: 31 of 280 (0.110714)
2015:  5 of 275 (0.018182)
2016: 19 of 303 (0.062706)
2017: 34 of 266 (0.127820)

Anything over 10% is pretty darn good.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000  6000       9    44     168   36    17   106600
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      51   12    20        0

delta: $-143,400
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,586,500
2017 balance: $30,949,055
balance: $42,366,885

5 new personal bests

Last night, I set at least 5 new personal bests, which is a good haul. Here they are:

- best 3 bagger: $6,959,000
- longest MTT-R NLHE streak making the money: 4 tournaments (and counting)
- longest MTT-R NLHE streak getting under the lights: 4 tournaments (and counting)
- largest profit in a calendar year: $31,092,455
- largest overall balance: $42,510,285

Once again, I'm speechless.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    64      59   12    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   169      54   12     4  1330000

delta: $1,080,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $30,786,500
2017 balance: $31,092,455
balance: $42,510,285

Best two bagger ever

On Friday night, I picked up where I'd left off the night before. Once again, I made it super deep in an MTT-R NLHE. I came within an ace of coming in first again. When I got to heads up, I had just over a quarter of the chips in play. 57 hands later, I'd fought back to where I had just over half the chips in play. I felt certain I was going to win, but it wasn't meant to be. On my final hand, I was an 86.36% favorite to win the hand after the turn, but my pocket eights got counterfeited on the river, and that was all she wrote. My back to back deep runs gave me my best two bagger ever; I won an aggregate $5,879,000.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   196      59   12     2  2559000

delta: $2,459,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $29,656,500
2017 balance: $30,012,455
balance: $41,430,285

Lord High Everything Else

Last night, I was Lord High Everything Else. For the third time in my career, I came in first in an MTT-R NLHE. It's a lot of fun being the lord, even though it has little to do with you. It mostly has to do with being annointed by the poker gods. They taketh away, but they also giveth. Last night, they gaveth until it hurt :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    22      27    5     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   130      50   12     1  3570000

delta: $3,420,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $27,197,500
2017 balance: $27,553,455
balance: $38,971,285

Revisiting an old friend

I revisited an old friend last night. For the first time in nearly half a year, I played an MTT 8-game tournament. Although I didn't make the money, I came within shouting distance of it. I had a lot of fun playing poker flavors other than hold'em. You can't make a lot of money playing 8-game, but you sure can have fun. I'll keep that in mind :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9     5     128   27    39        0
MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    16     221   45   111        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    88      62   12    18        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT 8-game balance: $-317,830
2017 balance: $24,133,455
balance: $35,551,285

Second best one session rebound ever

This is the second time I've used this blog post title; the first was on November 26, 2011. Back then, I thought a rebound of $70,500 was big news. It turns out that's puppy food :-) My $550,000 rebound last night brought my overall balance back into the blue once again. All's right in my poker world.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    99      59   12     6   758000

delta: $658,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $23,727,500
2017 balance: $24,333,455
balance: $35,751,285

Too frisky by half

For the first time in a long time, I played friskily last night. I was too frisky by half :-) I know why - the huge cash infusion of the night before made me feel like the world was my oyster. That's always a dangerous feeling. I lost a whopping $550,000, which made it my ninth worst session ever, worse than 99.61% of all the sessions I've played. Tonight, I aim to play a lot tighter.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    29      59   12    29        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      53   12    32        0

delta: $-550,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $23,069,500
2017 balance: $23,675,455
balance: $35,093,285

Ridiculous ladder up

I got back into the blue last night in a big way, and in rather a ridiculous fashion. When the final table of nine players began, I was in seventh place, with just 6.29% of the chips in play. When it came down to six handed play, I was in sixth place, with just 2.63% of the chips in play. When it came down to five handed play, I was in fifth place, with just .16% of the chips in play. When it came down to four handed play, I was in fourth place, with just .58% of the chips in play. Finally, when it came down to three handed play, I was in third place, with just .36% of the chips in play. That's as far as I got. Now that's what I call laddering up :-) There's no way I could have done this without the active participation of my opponents. I should have ended up in sixth place at best; all they had to do was silently collude to make constant small bets which wouldn't affect their stacks materially, but which would force me to go all in to stay in a hand. My 2.63% of the chips would not have been long for the world, and they would all have guaranteed themselves a slightly bigger payday. However, they failed to do this. Even worse, some of them committed the cardinal sin no big stack should ever commit in this situation - they went all in against a bigger stack. Not just one opponent did this, and hit the rail. Not just two. Fully three opponents did. By virtue of this foolish behavior, I made $1,458,000 more in profit than I had any reason to expect. I understand why they did it, however. They were playing to win it all, not to ladder up. That's completely honorable, if somewhat misguided. I had no illusion that I could ever win it all, so I was more than happy to ladder up :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   116      59   12     3  2332000

delta: $2,232,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $23,619,500
2017 balance: $24,225,455
balance: $35,643,285

A turn for the worse

I never like hitting the rail in a tournament, but I really dislike hitting it when I was a favorite after the flop. That's what happened to me last night. I was a 66.26% favorite to win after the flop, but was a 22.73% dog when the turn gave my opponent a straight. I ended up two places shy of the money. In other words, I bubbled the bubble :-) Thankfully, I'd only fired two bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      66   15    17        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $21,387,500
2017 balance: $21,993,455
balance: $33,411,285

A stampede of cowboys

Baby cowboys (aka pocket jacks) are very nice, but cowboys (pocket kings) are much nicer. It stands to reason that a stampede of baby cowboys can't hold a candle to a stampede of cowboys. Last night, I had a stampede of cowboys in the final tournament I played, receiving them three times in 109 hands, for a freq factor of 6.08. They essentially ensured that I was going to make the money. My blue distance is now just $345,375 - a mere bagatelle :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    22      67   15    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   109      66   15    11   473000

delta: $223,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $21,487,500
2017 balance: $22,093,455
balance: $33,511,285

Milestone

Last night I achieved a milestone - I made the final table of an MTT-R NLHE for the 40th time in my career. I started the final table in sixth place, and finished in fifth. It's always a good feeling to ladder up at the final table, even if it's only one spot :-) I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but have a feeling that I've finished higher than where I started at the final table more often than the reverse. If I'm as successful tonight as I was last night, I'll be back in the blue again.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid  place winnings

SNG   NLHE    42500  7500       6    17       6    2      3        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    65      77   18     34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   123      43    9      5   913000

delta: $663,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $21,264,500
2017 balance: $21,870,455
balance: $33,288,285

A stampede of baby cowboys

I first used this blog post title on May 4th of this year. As you know, I'm never shy about reusing titles. Last night, I got baby cowboys (pocket jacks) twice in 67 hands, for a whopping frequency factor of 6.597 (topping the May 4th frequency factor of 4.093). They helped me make the money almost on their lonesome, since I won big both times :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    67      71   15     9   398000

delta: $198,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $20,551,500
2017 balance: $21,207,455
balance: $32,625,285

A rare occurrence

As I've said before, I get used to seeing the usual suspects when I play MTT-R NLHEs. It's always a pleasure to last longer in a tournament than many of them, even if I don't make the money. The night before last, one of the usual suspects bubbled the final tournament I played, while I finished in the final money spot. Last night, I finished one spot ahead of this same usual suspect in the only MTT-R NLHE I played, though neither of us made the money. Finishing one spot ahead of the same opponent in two tournaments in a row (where each tournament has a healthy number of entries) is quite a rarity. In this particular case, there was a 1 in 3,294 chance of it happening. That's rarer than being dealt the same hand twice in a row (1 in 1,326). It's also rarer than being dealt the same hand twice in a row, where the cards have been dealt in the same order (1 in 2,652). It's not quite as rare as getting dealt four of a kind in five card draw (1 in 4,165), but you get the idea :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      62   15    19        0
KO    NLHE    42500  7500       9    14       9    3     4        0
KO    NLHE    42500  7500       9     5       9    3     7        0
KO    NLHE    42500  7500       9    14       9    3     4        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $20,353,500
2017 balance: $21,009,455
balance: $32,427,285

"Never going broke" hands

On September 10, 2013, I had this to say about "always going broke" hands:

Certain hands are good enough in the context in which they arise that they're known as "always going broke" hands. This doesn't mean that you'll always go broke with them; not by a long shot! It simply means you'll always be willing to go broke with them, since the odds against that happening are heavily in your favor. When you go broke with an "always going broke" hand, you'll have run into a cooler.

The flip side of "always going broke" hands are "never going broke" hands. There's more than one kind of "never going broke" hand. In all cases, however, the reason you never go broke is because you fold the hand before the flop. The most obvious "never going broke" hand is deuce seven offsuit, affectionately known as a hammer. The least obvious one is pocket aces. Last night, in the one tournament I played, I would have saved myself $100,000 if I'd only recognized that my best play was to fold my aces pre-flop the only time I was dealt them. Why in the world would anyone ever do that? Five people acting before me had gone all in, that's why :-) My chances of winning the pot were just slightly better than 50%, which are not the correct odds.

Actually, come to think of it, I made the correct play after all. The odds were actually super juicy; I was laboring in the fog of innumeracy for a while, but I'm all better now :-) The reason the play is correct is that if I did the same play twice, and won once and lost once, the aggregate result would have been highly profitable. The conclusion is that you should never fold pocket aces pre-flop, ever, no matter the number of opponents you're up against.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings
 
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9     8      18    4    14        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   100      55   12    12   448000

delta: $228,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $20,503,500
2017 balance: $21,309,455
balance: $32,727,285

52 million wagered

Last night, I topped 52 million wagered for 2017. This is over 10 million more than the amount I wagered last year, which was the former record-holder. If I keep up this pace, I will have wagered over 61.5 million by the end of the year. If I keep ramping up the volume, one year I may be able to wager a cool 100 million :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    19      52   12    36        0
KO    NLHE    42500  7500       9    33       9    3     4        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   107      48   12    11   286000

delta: $-114,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $20,255,500
2017 balance: $21,081,455
balance: $32,499,285

Twelfth worst seven bagger

In my last seven sessions, I've lost $1,243,375. That clocks in as the twelfth worst seven bagger of my career. All but six of the top twenty occurred in 2017. Although I failed to make the money in both tournaments I played on Friday night, I played well. Once again, I feel I'm due for a big payday. Time will tell :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    65      75   15    36        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      51   12    16        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $20,319,500
2017 balance: $21,195,455
balance: $32,613,285

Flushed away

I've mentioned how much I hate magic flushes. I hate uberflushes almost as much. Last night, on the final hand of the last tournament I played, I ran into an uberflush, and was flushed away. My queen high flush lost to a king high. Ouch! The good news about bad luck like this is, I'm banking up some future good luck :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

KO    NLHE    42500  7500       9    22       9    3     3    38250
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    18      83   18    62        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      75   15    31        0

delta: $-461,750
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $20,569,500
2017 balance: $21,445,455
balance: $32,863,285

Identical twins

My original title for this post was "A silly statistic". When I saw that my percentile for the MTT-R NLHE I played last night was exactly 50, I knew that was a rarity, so I decided to look into how many times that's happened. It turns out the answer is just five times, in 205 tournaments. It's silly to look for percentiles of exactly 50, since that immediately cuts out all the tournaments with an odd number of entrants. When you look at stat lines of the five tournaments, it's pretty clear why I changed the title:

percentile entries place paid hands     date

    0.5000      80    40   18   67  2017-06-02b
    0.5000      68    34   15   26  2017-07-11a
    0.5000      60    30   12   61  2017-08-29d
    0.5000      62    31   15   57  2017-10-17a
    0.5000      62    31   15   56  2017-11-01b

The last two on the list are close enough to each other statistically to qualify as identical twins :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

KO    NLHE    42500  7500       9    21       9    3     3    38250
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    56      62   15    31        0

delta: $-211,750
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $21,019,500
2017 balance: $21,907,205
balance: $33,325,035

The magic flush

There's a hand I've been meaning to write about for some time, and now's the time. I call this hand the magic flush, and I really hate it. I hate it so much I don't even want to be on the winning end of it. Here's how a magic flush typically goes down:

- player A (the hero) has a premium holding
- player B (the villain) has a mediocre holding
- neither player's holding is suited, and player B has a least one suit that player A does not; let's call this suit the magic flush suit
- four of the five community cards dealt are of the magic flush suit, giving player B a flush, which beats player A's hand

Last night, in the one MTT-R NLHE I played, I hit the felt when I ran into a magic flush. Luckily for me, I still ended up making the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   105      29    6     6   392000

delta: $192,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $21,219,500
2017 balance: $22,118,955
balance: $33,536,785