Sunday, August 31, 2014

At the top of my game

With a blog post title like this one, you probably think I had a winning session last night. Actually, I didn't. However, I was still playing at the top of my game. There are two reasons why I know this:

1. my pots won at showdown percentage was over well over 50 (it was 63.16, to be precise)
2. my biggest loss came courtesy of a bad beat on a hand where I'd been a 77.27% favorite after the turn; absent that loss, I would have had a winning session

I think I'm rounding into hold'em form, and have a hunch I'll have a winning session tonight.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 162 hands and saw flop:
 - 17 out of 23 times while in big blind (73%)
 - 10 out of 24 times while in small blind (41%)
 - 54 out of 115 times in other positions (46%)
 - a total of 81 out of 162 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 12 of 19 (63%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $-13,587
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,931,227
balance: $10,064,126

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Another top 10 in a losing cause

Although I had a losing session last night, I was much more comfortable playing hold'em than I had been playing 7 card stud. The great advantage hold'em has over practically ever other poker flavor out there is the flop. The flop gives you an incredible amount of information early on; you only need to make it through one betting round to get it. Not only that, once you've seen the flop, you know more about your opponents' holdings at that stage of the hand than you would in practically any other poker flavor. The reason why is simple - your opponents have to use the flop just as you do. If you hit the flop really hard, it stands to reason that that reduces their chances of having hit it hard. If you whiff on the flop, that makes it more likely that one or more of your opponents hit it.

I won my biggest pot of the night, $106,044, after I'd already hit the felt twice. The hand delta of $55,522 is the fourth largest positive hand delta I've ever had in a losing cause. That's my consolation prize for losing :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 146 hands and saw flop:
 - 17 out of 23 times while in big blind (73%)
 - 12 out of 24 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 64 out of 99 times in other positions (64%)
 - a total of 93 out of 146 (63%)
 Pots won at showdown - 15 of 28 (53%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $-67,113
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,944,814
balance: $10,077,713

Friday, August 29, 2014

Skyfallen and homesick

Last night, I had another disastrous $120,000 skyfall. At my current rate, it will take me nearly two and a half years to win a million play dollars playing 7 card stud. I just don't have the stomach for that. I'm homesick for hold'em, and will return to it tonight. It's my bread and butter, and I can never leave it for long, even when I intend to. 7 card stud, though a skill game, just isn't much fun to play. Hold'em is also a skill game, and is super fun to play. What more could you ask for?

During current Stud session you were dealt 103 hands and:
- saw fourth street 74 times (71%)
- saw fifth street 59 times (57%)
- saw sixth street 48 times (46%)
- reached showdown 27 times (26%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 27 (29%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-120,000
cash game 7 card stud balance: $59,092
balance: $10,144,826

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Skyfall

I've never seen the Bond movie "Skyfall", but that doesn't mean I don't recognize the power of its title. In a poker context, skyfall is the distance your stack falls from being in the blue on the first occasion when it does so. In other words, if you lose multiple sessions in a row after getting into the blue, your skyfall is just the amount your stack fell in the first of those losing sessions. On August 19th, I had the third largest skyfall of my cash game career, a whopping $120,000. I'm happy to say I was able to return my stack to the blue in last night's session. What made it even more memorable was the fact that it was the first stud session ever where I was above water the whole night. Sweet!

During current Stud session you were dealt 61 hands and:
- saw fourth street 40 times (65%)
- saw fifth street 38 times (62%)
- saw sixth street 31 times (50%)
- reached showdown 11 times (18%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 11 (72%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $52,550
cash game 7 card stud balance: $179,092
balance: $10,264,826

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Running the table

Last night, the other players at the first table I joined eventually all quit. Unfortunately for me, this was after I'd hit the felt, reupped, and recouped almost a quarter of my losses. Actually, it was probably more fortunate for me than not that everybody quit. I went on a major tear at the second table I joined; I won 7 of 12 hands, and made a profit of $42,620. I knew I'd seen the best of my luck, and got out of Dodge.

During current Stud session you were dealt 81 hands and:
- saw fourth street 66 times (81%)
- saw fifth street 60 times (74%)
- saw sixth street 48 times (59%)
- reached showdown 23 times (28%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 23 (43%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $11,340
cash game 7 card stud balance: $126,542
balance: $10,212,276

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

The land of the sixes

Last night, I won 10 of 15 showdowns, for a winning rate of .666666..., aka the land of the sixes. The land of the sixes is a very good place to be, stud showdowns-wise. In fact, it's a very good place to be, showdowns-wise, regardless of poker flavor. My career hold'em showdown winning rate is a shade over 50%, which is respectable. My career stud showdown winning rate is only 45% at the moment. I know one sure way to raise it - not going to showdown as often as I do :-) That only works up to a point, however; avoid going to showdown too much, and you're bound to be leaving money on the table.

During current Stud session you were dealt 65 hands and:
- saw fourth street 56 times (86%)
- saw fifth street 48 times (73%)
- saw sixth street 35 times (53%)
- reached showdown 15 times (23%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 15 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $6,780
cash game 7 card stud balance: $115,202
balance: $10,200,936

Monday, August 25, 2014

Ending with a bang

On Friday night, I ended my session with a bang. On the final hand, I had a hand delta of $15,400, good enough for the second largest of the night. That inspired me to come up with a new poker stat. Here's the definition: if your final positive hand delta is a high chaparral delta, you've officially ended the session with a bang. I thought that would be a fairly rare occurrence, but it's actually a common one. Of the 39 stud sessions for which I have the hand histories, fully 27 of them have ended with a bang.

During current Stud session you were dealt 133 hands and:
- saw fourth street 109 times (81%)
- saw fifth street 98 times (73%)
- saw sixth street 81 times (60%)
- reached showdown 38 times (28%)
 Pots won at showdown - 16 of 38 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $8,170
cash game 7 card stud balance: $108,422
balance: $10,194,156

Friday, August 22, 2014

The land of the thirty-twos

Last night, I won 32 hands out of 99 for a winning rate of .323232..., aka the land of the thirty-twos. I was only underwater for one of them. One of the most important lessons I'm learning in stud is that you really don't want to bet or raise very much; checking and calling are much smarter options in general. Where you make money in stud is by not losing more money in spots where other players might. It's a minimalistic philosophy, but I like it.

During current Stud session you were dealt 99 hands and:
- saw fourth street 73 times (73%)
- saw fifth street 63 times (63%)
- saw sixth street 52 times (52%)
- reached showdown 27 times (27%)
 Pots won at showdown - 13 of 27 (48%)
 Pots won without showdown - 19

delta: $50,520
cash game 7 card stud balance: $100,252
balance: $10,185,986

Thursday, August 21, 2014

The walrus by a whisker

Last night, the walrus got me by a whisker again. That is to say, I would have had a profitable session except for a bad beat. On hand 37, I hit a flush on sixth street, but got beaten by a full house which an opponent hit on seventh street. I'd been a 92.63% favorite after sixth street, but it wasn't meant to be. Had I won that hand, I would have made a profit of $24,850 on the night. I'm not discouraged, though; I played much better last night than the night before. Looking at the statistics of the two sessions, I realize I was wrong about what I'd been doing wrong on Tuesday night. It wasn't that I was going to showdown too often; it was that I was going to showdown too often without premium hands.

During current Stud session you were dealt 128 hands and:
- saw fourth street 95 times (74%)
- saw fifth street 82 times (64%)
- saw sixth street 65 times (50%)
- reached showdown 38 times (29%)
 Pots won at showdown - 20 of 38 (52%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-3,350
cash game 7 card stud balance: $49,732
balance: $10,135,466

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Top ten session aggregate loss

It's not surprising that when I win, I generally prefer to win big. What may be surprising is that when I lose, sometimes I actually prefer to lose big! If I can lose big enough to make it into the top ten of some category, I feel my session wasn't a total waste :-) That was the case last night. Defining session aggregate loss as the sum of the hand deltas of the losing hands of the session, last night's session aggregate loss clocked in at number eight on my all time cash game list. Here are the top ten:

    -86582     416440    -503022 2013-06-11
   -100000     240287    -340287 2013-06-12
   -230261      93779    -324040 2013-06-13
    -79538     202705    -282243 2014-06-18
    -79355     167287    -246642 2014-01-29
      4445     244836    -240391 2011-11-26
   -143125      90647    -233772 2013-11-28
   -120000     106020    -226020 2014-08-19
      3823     223781    -219958 2014-01-23
   -100000     118520    -218520 2014-06-06


The first column is the session delta, the second column is the session aggregate win, and the third column is the session aggregate loss. Any time your session aggregate loss approaches a quarter of a million play dollars, you definitely know you're doing something wrong :-) In my case, what I'm doing wrong is going to too many showdowns. I'll try to correct that tonight.

During current Stud session you were dealt 143 hands and:
- saw fourth street 97 times (67%)
- saw fifth street 77 times (53%)
- saw sixth street 58 times (40%)
- reached showdown 28 times (19%)
 Pots won at showdown - 12 of 28 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $-120,000
cash game 7 card stud balance: $53,082
balance: $10,138,816

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

An action opponent

Action is the engine of poker. Without action, no one could make a profit. When I encounter an action opponent, part of me grumbles, but most of me rejoices. The part that grumbles says "This guy always bets or raises; I'll never know what he has". The part of me that rejoices says, "This guy always bets or raises; it doesn't even matter what he has. Nine times out of ten, if I wait for a good hand, my hand will beat his".

To help me gauge just how much action "Action Jackson" was giving me, I came up with yaps (yet another poker statistic). I call my new stat action_pct (short for action percentage). It's the percentage of decisions made by a player which were either bets or raises. Last night, in 60 hands, my action_pct was a modest 17.42  - 31 action decisions out of a total of 178 decisions. The action_pct of "Action Jackson" was an absurd 74.15 - 241 action decisions out of a total of 325 decisions.

I hit the felt after 44 hands, but wasn't discouraged; with all the action being provided, I knew I could make it back into the black in a hurry. "Action Jackson" spotted me two huge pots after I reupped, and I quit with a nice profit.

During current Stud session you were dealt 60 hands and:
- saw fourth street 22 times (36%)
- saw fifth street 20 times (33%)
- saw sixth street 19 times (31%)
- reached showdown 11 times (18%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 11 (54%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $41,800
cash game 7 card stud balance: $173,082
balance: $10,258,816

Monday, August 18, 2014

43.7 million cash game play dollars lost

There are many differences between cash game poker and tournament poker. Though I've flirted with tournament poker, and done reasonably well at it, I feel I'm a cash game player at heart. It's really hard to be excellent at both. They require vastly different mindsets. One of the quirky things about tournament poker is that you never know how well you've done until your tournament life is over. When you lose a hand, you don't know if you've actually lost any money yet. The chips in a tournament don't represent actual money. In stark contrast, the chips in a cash game do represent actual money. When you lose a hand in a cash game, your bankroll has just lost the dollar amount that the chips represented. You can calculate the amount of money you've lost over time playing cash game poker simply by summing your negative hand deltas. I've just been through this exercise, and the result is a gargantuan $-43,697,335. -43.7 million, for all practical purposes. The good news is, the amount I've won over time playing cash game poker is an even more gargantuan $50,122,262.

During current Stud session you were dealt 60 hands and:
- saw fourth street 50 times (83%)
- saw fifth street 43 times (71%)
- saw sixth street 35 times (58%)
- reached showdown 11 times (18%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 11 (63%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $25,260
cash game 7 card stud balance: $131,282
balance: $10,217,016

Friday, August 15, 2014

Best stud Laz hand

Several posts ago, I wrote about my best stud Lazarus session. Last night, I had my best stud Lazarus hand. The session itself was a bust. By definition, a prerequisite for a Lazarus hand is that you're severely short-stacked and are forced to put all your chips in the middle. What made the hand truly remarkable was not that I had a miraculous runner runner at the end to come from behind. What made it truly remarkable was that I was dealt 5s 7h 5c, never improved the hand, and yet somehow my pair of fives held up against not one but two opponents at showdown. You just can't make this stuff up!

During current Stud session you were dealt 101 hands and:
- saw fourth street 84 times (83%)
- saw fifth street 74 times (73%)
- saw sixth street 61 times (60%)
- reached showdown 28 times (27%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 28 (35%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $-38,685
cash game 7 card stud balance: $106,022
balance: $10,191,756

Thursday, August 14, 2014

High chaparral streak

In general, I shy away from mentioning streaks while they're in progress; there's no sense in jinxing myself. However, I'm going to make an exception in this post. I have an awesome streak going, and it's not showing any signs of being in danger of coming to an end. Since I started playing stud again, I've never had a high chaparral number of 0. That's 32 straight sessions where my largest positive hand delta has been larger than the absolute value of my largest negative hand delta. For comparison purposes, my longest similar streak playing no limit hold'em was 19 sessions. As far as I'm aware, this non-zero high chaparral streak is the longest non-trivial streak of any kind in my career. I want to see if I can push it up to a century. In other good news, I'm back in the blue :-)

During current Stud session you were dealt 36 hands and:
- saw fourth street 31 times (86%)
- saw fifth street 28 times (77%)
- saw sixth street 26 times (72%)
- reached showdown 15 times (41%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 15 (46%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $13,563
cash game 7 card stud balance: $144,707
balance: $10,230,441

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Microwin

Last night, I set a new personal best for smallest session delta for a winning session. After 103 hands, I walked away with a minuscule $2, or 1/400th of a double bet. I was underwater for 94 of the hands. I call this a microwin. There are at least two positives I take away from last night's session:

1. I demonstrated a lot of perseverance
2. I kept my winning streak going

If I ever get the opportunity to end a session with a session delta of $1, I'll take it, presuming I'm fast enough on the draw :-)

During current Stud session you were dealt 103 hands and:
- saw fourth street 81 times (78%)
- saw fifth street 72 times (69%)
- saw sixth street 54 times (52%)
- reached showdown 25 times (24%)
 Pots won at showdown - 11 of 25 (44%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $2
cash game 7 card stud balance: $131,144
balance: $10,216,878

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Snorkeling

Playing no limit hold'em, it's not terribly hard to get deeply underwater. The deeper the dive, the more difficult it is to get back to the surface. You need scuba gear, good nerves, some skill, and plain old good luck. In contrast, the underwater dives in limit stud are not nearly as deep; for some of them, all you really need is a snorkel. That was the case for me last night. The deepest underwater I got was $-4,320. Stud is much safer than hold'em, but I find myself missing the thrills.

During current Stud session you were dealt 30 hands and:
- saw fourth street 23 times (76%)
- saw fifth street 18 times (60%)
- saw sixth street 16 times (53%)
- reached showdown 10 times (33%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 10 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $12,206
cash game 7 card stud balance: $131,142
balance: $10,216,876

Monday, August 11, 2014

Best stud Laz ever

On Friday night, I had my best stud Laz ever. It was most probably the best cash game Laz of my poker career. As a reminder, Laz is short for a Lazarus session, i.e. a session where you come within a hair's breadth of hitting the felt, but somehow not only manage not to hit it, but also have a strong rebound. I started the session with my normal starting stack amount of $40,000. At the end of hand 58, I was down to a mere $1,217. I got a little mad at myself, and stubbornly determined to turn things around without having to reup. 64 hands later, I finally got back into the black, and quit the very next hand.

During current Stud session you were dealt 123 hands and:
- saw fourth street 90 times (73%)
- saw fifth street 72 times (58%)
- saw sixth street 61 times (49%)
- reached showdown 31 times (25%)
 Pots won at showdown - 12 of 31 (38%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $950
cash game 7 card stud balance: $118,936
balance: $10,204,670

Friday, August 8, 2014

Second stud miniature

Last night, I had a short winning session; short enough, in fact, to qualify it as the second stud miniature of my career. Miniatures are much rarer in stud than in hold'em, since it generally takes longer than 10 hands to gain traction and generate a significant amount of profit. By definition, all stud miniatures are winning sessions, since it's virtually impossible to lose your starting stack in just 10 hands. Hold'em miniatures are not guaranteed to be winning sessions; in hold'em, you can lose your starting stack in a New York minute :-)

During current Stud session you were dealt 10 hands and:
- saw fourth street 7 times (70%)
- saw fifth street 7 times (70%)
- saw sixth street 6 times (60%)
- reached showdown 2 times (20%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $12,840
cash game 7 card stud balance: $117,986
balance: $10,203,720


Thursday, August 7, 2014

Statistical oddity

Last night, my session was a statistical oddity. Although I had a high underwater percentage, I also had a high high chaparral number. In fact, my high chaparral number of 11 was a personal best for stud, and tied for my highest high chaparral number of any poker flavor. I'm getting used to sessions with a high underwater percentage; I think they're just a fact of life for stud.

During current Stud session you were dealt 105 hands and:
- saw fourth street 91 times (86%)
- saw fifth street 72 times (68%)
- saw sixth street 55 times (52%)
- reached showdown 29 times (27%)
 Pots won at showdown - 13 of 29 (44%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $4,349
cash game 7 card stud balance: $105,146
balance: $10,190,880

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Second largest stud hand delta

Even though my favorite type of hand is a flush, it rarely brings in a truly monster pot. That honor belongs to the full house, aka the fatty (in neo parlance). It's easy to see why this should be so. Only hands which are so strong that they beat almost every other strong hand out there have the chance to really bring home the bacon. It's not enough just to have a fatty, either; in order for the pot to really grow other players must have strong hands themselves, just not as strong :-) Last night, on hand 29, I won a pot worth $42,320 with a fatty, jacks full of queens. Three of us went to showdown. The other two hands were a ten high straight and a king high flush. The hand delta of $32,080 was the second largest of my stud career.

During current Stud session you were dealt 89 hands and:
- saw fourth street 70 times (78%)
- saw fifth street 57 times (64%)
- saw sixth street 46 times (51%)
- reached showdown 27 times (30%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 27 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $16,659
cash game 7 card stud balance: $100,797
balance: $10,186,531

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Shot from guns

There's almost nothing in poker I like better than starting off a session by winning a big pot. I call that being shot from guns. That's what happened last night. On the very first hand, I made a straight on seventh street; I won a pot worth $13,320 with it, $9,680 of which was o.p.m. (other people's money).

Every so often I like to I take a look at my percentage of winning the first hand of a session, and like the children of Lake Wobegon, it's always been above average :-) Since I started playing stud again last month, I've won the first hand in 6 of the 25 sessions. That's 24 percent, almost double the expected 12.5 percent.

The great thing about being shot from guns is that it immediately gives you chips to play with. It doesn't matter if your stack comes back to its starting amount, or even if it dips under it; what matters is that you've been gifted with a greater number of hands to play. The more hands you can play, the better; the sooner your next monster pot :-)

During current Stud session you were dealt 68 hands and:
- saw fourth street 55 times (80%)
- saw fifth street 45 times (66%)
- saw sixth street 32 times (47%)
- reached showdown 12 times (17%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 12 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $14,813
cash game 7 card stud balance: $84,138
balance: $10,169,872

Monday, August 4, 2014

Going like sixty

Given that stud tables seat eight players, you should expect to win 1 out of every 8 hands, all things being equal. Of course, things are never equal :-) 1 out of 8 is 12.5 percent. If you can average 2 out of 10, you're doing really well. On Saturday night, I won a whopping 12 of the last 20 hands I played. Friends and neighbors, that's 60 percent. You can't expect to go like sixty all the time, but it sure feels good when you do :-)

During current Stud session you were dealt 46 hands and:
- saw fourth street 39 times (84%)
- saw fifth street 33 times (71%)
- saw sixth street 29 times (63%)
- reached showdown 13 times (28%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 13 (61%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $12,227
cash game 7 card stud balance: $69,325
balance: $10,155,059

Saturday, August 2, 2014

Stairs to the elevator

Last night, I was underwater for over 95% of the session, yet still managed to eke out a small profit. I did this by taking the stairs to the elevator. That is to say, my losses were all fairly small, and at the end of the session I won multiple big pots in short succession.

During current Stud session you were dealt 73 hands and:
- saw fourth street 54 times (73%)
- saw fifth street 45 times (61%)
- saw sixth street 34 times (46%)
- reached showdown 13 times (17%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 13 (46%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $2,800
cash game 7 card stud balance: $57,098
balance: $10,142,832

Friday, August 1, 2014

30 spot

Last night, I had a memorable dry spell. In the middle of the session, I lost 30 hands in a row. I shed $36,080 in this stretch, during which time I hit the felt and reupped. The way things were going, it was a good thing I reupped for the minimum amount, $16,000, instead of my normal amount of $40,000. Even so, I managed to cut my lifetime stud profit in half :-(

During current Stud session you were dealt 109 hands and:
- saw fourth street 82 times (75%)
- saw fifth street 66 times (60%)
- saw sixth street 55 times (50%)
- reached showdown 27 times (24%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 27 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-56,000
cash game 7 card stud balance: $54,298
balance: $10,140,032