Station 3.5

In my poker train analogy, I've decided to add another station. Since it comes after station 3 and before station 4, I've decided to name it station 3.5 :-) This station is hit after you've made the money and have outlasted at least 80% of the field, but you missed making the final table.

This is an excerpt from my December 13, 2020 post. On Wednesday night, I made it to Station 3.5 again. In the 1,534 MTT NLHEs I've played to date, I've made it to at least Station 3.5 495 times, which is at a 32% clip. Not too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6     109   30    15   117000

delta: $67,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,247,268
2022 balance: $-2,975,000
blue distance: $2,992,200
balance: $91,868,953

Short-term goal

When you're deep in the hole deep into the month, it behooves you to reset your expectations. Last night's losing session returned my losses for this month to more than 3 million. Counting tonight's, there are six sessions left for me to play in January. It's not realistic to think I can get back into the black in that short a time. I need to aim for something more achievable. Accordingly, my short-term goal is to reduce my losses for the month to two million. We'll see how I do :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      90   21    31        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,180,268
2022 balance: $-3,042,000
blue distance: $3,059,200
balance: $91,801,953

A WTF hand

The most memorable hand of last night's session was one that I lost due to a glitch in the PokerStars software; that's the only way I can explain it. I was dealt Q9o (queen nine offsuit), and paired both my hole cards on the flop. I made medium-sized bets all the way to showdown. I was dumbfounded when my hand lost to two players who split the pot when each of them showed a pair of aces. Last I checked, two pair beats one pair. I looked back in the chat box, which in addition to player comments is also used by the software to display the hands on every player who went to showdown, and to announce who won. PokerStars claimed that all I had was a pair of nines; somehow my queens had gone missing. Disheartening, to say the least! I've never seen this happen before, and I hope never to see it again.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      77   21    14   375000

delta: $175,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,380,268
2022 balance: $-2,842,000
blue distance: $2,859,200
balance: $92,001,953

New personal worst

The longer you've played poker, the harder it gets to set either a new personal best or a new personal worst. I've mentioned before that I get almost as much of a thrill from setting a personal worst as I do from setting a personal best. That may seem strange, but it's the truth. I love setting records of any kind :-)

This is an excerpt from my April 9, 2015 post. My new personal worst: the latest date in a poker year when my aggregate balance for the year got into the black for the first time. The previous worst was January 11, which was in 2011; it's already January 24, and I still haven't gotten into the black yet this year. When I eventually do, that will be the new worst.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      79   21    18   343000

delta: $143,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,205,268
2022 balance: $-3,017,000
blue distance: $3,034,200
balance: $91,826,953

Station 2.5 (almost)

On Saturday night, I almost made it to Station 2.5. I hit the 68th percentile, just a bit shy of what I needed. Had I finished two places higher, I would have made it to the magic number. It's pretty silly to make distinctions between stations before Station 3, which is the first one where you make the money, but it's a way to make yourself feel better about a losing session :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      92   24    29        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,062,268
2022 balance: $-3,160,000
blue distance: $3,177,200
balance: $91,683,953

Looking on the bright side

By deciding to play 9max tournaments very sparingly for the rest of the year, I'll be maximizing my chances of coming out in the black, something I've done every year of my career. I've extolled the virtues of 6max over 9max many times before, so I won't enumerate them all again. However, I will call attention to one virtue that I may not have emphasized as much as the others - namely, that 6max tournaments never pay out funny funny money. In other words, the lowest rung of a 6max payout ladder will always cover the buy in plus the entry fee. That's something to celebrate :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6     120   30    29    81000

delta: $31,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,262,268
2022 balance: $-2,960,000
blue distance: $2,977,200
balance: $91,883,953

Station 1 and done

At the end of the advertisement, the most interesting man, usually shown sitting in a night club or other social setting surrounded by several beautiful young women, says, "I don't always drink beer. But when I do, I prefer Dos Equis."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Most_Interesting_Man_in_the_World

Co-opting that slogan for poker purposes: "I don't always make it to station 1, but when I do, I usually make it to later stations." Last night, for the first time this year, I recorded a station 1 and done; that is, I made it to station 1 but no further. It's better than a 0th place, but only just barely :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      78   21    48        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,231,268
2022 balance: $-2,991,000
blue distance: $3,008,200
balance: $91,852,953

Back to 6max

My early 2022 numbers tell a story I can't ignore:

    balance  tourneys  style   flavor             max

    $44,000         8  MTT     No Limit Hold'em   6max
$-1,426,000         6  MTT     No Limit Hold'em   9max
$-1,559,000         6  MTT-B   No Limit Hold'em   9max

6max is my bread and butter. 9max is my tale of woe. I've known this for a long time, but keep hoping things will change. I've sworn off 9max many times before, and I'm doing it again. I'll play a 9max occasionally, for the sheer fun of it, but I'll keep those occasions rare.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      76   21    19   290000

delta: $90,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,281,268
2022 balance: $-2,941,000
blue distance: $2,958,200
balance: $91,902,953

yapb

Last night, I achieved yapb - yet another personal borscht. I tied for the best negative ROI for a tournament where I lost money. Here are the top ten:

neg roi  delta  buy in     date        poker style

-0.0100  -1000  100000  2022-01-18  MTT with bounties
-0.0100  -2000  200000  2019-09-03  MTT with bounties
-0.0100    -50    5000  2016-09-26  MTT with bounties
-0.0200  -1000   50000  2018-07-11  MTT
-0.0200  -1000   50000  2017-05-07  MTT
-0.0280   -140    5000  2016-06-14  MTT
-0.0300  -3000  100000  2019-10-05  MTT with bounties
-0.0420   -210    5000  2015-03-18  MTT
-0.0420   -210    5000  2015-01-07  MTT
-0.0440 -11000  250000  2022-01-01  MTT with bounties

Recording a negative ROI of less than 100% for a tournament where you've lost money can only be achieved in tournaments where the lowest rungs of the payout ladder fail to cover the buy in. Of course, no one would willingly choose such a tournament, but there's no way to know what the pay table will end up being at the time you join, more's the pity.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9     199   45    26    99000

delta: $-1,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-5,705,820
2022 balance: $-3,031,000
blue distance: $3,048,200
balance: $91,812,953

I should have known better

It's never a good idea to say you'll eat your hat if something happens, or something else doesn't happen. You're essentially daring the universe to prove you wrong, and the universe will happily take up that challenge. From personal experience, I'd say that the universe has about a 50 50 shot :-) Last night, I failed to outlast the late registration period in the first tournament I joined, so the universe won again. I played a bounty after that, and made the money; the only problem was, it was funny funny money, so it wasn't very funny after all.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       9      79   18     -        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000  26000       9     153   36    36   153000

delta: $-97,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,191,268
2022 balance: $-3,030,000
blue distance: $3,047,200
balance: $91,813,953

Failure to launch

There are many ways to register a 0th place in a tournament, and some are more shameful than others. Last night, I registered a 0th place in one of the more shameful ways. The tournament had a 49 minute late registration period, and I joined with six minutes left. It should have been duck soup to last such a short period of time, but I hit the rail just four minutes after I joined. I'll eat my hat if I don't outlast the late registration period tonight.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       9     127   27     -        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,241,268
2022 balance: $-2,933,000
blue distance: $2,950,200
balance: $91,910,953

The 9max fun quotient

Last year, I only played five 9max tournaments the whole year. This year, in half a month, I've already played seven. Although I'm substantially in the red in 9max, I'm having too much fun playing it to give it up. I just need to stay away from the big buy in tournaments.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       9     166   45     7   224000

delta: $174,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,291,268
2022 balance: $-2,883,000
blue distance: $2,900,200
balance: $91,960,953

"That's the good stuff"

I love to listen to the chess commentary of Antonio Radić, aka agadmator. He has an extremely popular chess channel on YouTube. He's very personable, beginning each video with an enthusiastic "Hello, everyone!", and clearly loves chess; his passion for it is infectious. He uses certain pet phrases in every video. Contrary to what you might think, this repetition isn't boring; in fact, I find myself looking forward to hearing him say each of these phrases. In a way, they're akin to a chess doxology. When agadmator praises an especially good chess move, he says "That's the good stuff". On Friday night, for the first time in a long time, I had a hand where I made a straight flush. That's the good stuff, too :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      89   21    21   340000

delta: $140,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,117,268
2022 balance: $-3,057,000
blue distance: $3,074,200
balance: $91,786,953

In the right ballpark

Even though I didn't make the money last night, I was in the right ballpark. I finished in the 72nd percentile. In each of my last five tournaments, I've finished above the 60th percentile. This tells me I'm doing a lot of things right, and just need to continue doing them.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6     100   24    28        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $40,977,268
2022 balance: $-3,197,000
blue distance: $3,214,200
balance: $91,646,953

Two years plus in the data wilderness

In the good old days, I had a version of the PokerStars client which saved the hand histories for both real money poker and play money poker. I didn't have to rely on my memory of a session to find something interesting to write about; I could just look through the hand histories. Those days came to an end in November 2019, when my old laptop died and I had to get a new one. When I installed the play money PokerStars client on the new laptop, it didn't include the feature to save the hand histories. That means I've been living for over two years in a data wilderness; all I can record is a high level view of my sessions, without any details. I really miss the details. All this is a roundabout way of saying I don't remember much about last night's session. I played fairly well, but missed the money.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6     107   27    37        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,027,268
2022 balance: $-3,147,000
blue distance: $3,164,200
balance: $91,696,953

The nuts, thrice

I had three memorable hands last night. I don't remember the order they came in, only that I had the nuts in all of them. One was a full house and the other two were flushes. Both of the flushes were ace highs; one came on the flop, and the other on the turn. When you have three premium hands like that, you expect to make the money, and I did :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      70   18    15   365000

delta: $165,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,077,268
2022 balance: $-3,097,000
blue distance: $3,114,200
balance: $91,746,953

An amusing extrapolation factoid

Last night, I started a new losing streak. Here's hoping it'll be of short duration. Although I lost $200,000 playing last night's tournament, my extrapolated profit for the year actually rose a tiny bit. Amusingly, if I lost $200,000 a night for the rest of the year, each night my extrapolated profit would rise a tiny bit more. My career balance wouldn't even be fully depleted! If that's not a silver lining to my horrendous start this year, nothing is :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      67   18    26        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $40,912,268
2022 balance: $-3,262,000
blue distance: $3,279,200
balance: $91,581,953

Second worst month ever (so far)

Last night, I finally stopped the bitch, ending a seven session losing streak. It was a toy train, so I didn't make much profit, but I'll take it. Only eight sessions into the new year, I've having my second worst month ever. Here are the top 10:

$-3,977,000  2018-09
$-3,062,000  2022-01
$-3,036,000  2019-10
$-2,363,000  2019-09
$-1,720,000  2018-07
$-1,713,296  2016-05
$-1,662,000  2018-08
$-1,556,769  2015-08
$-1,521,000  2018-10
$-1,399,000  2018-02

Amusingly, my extrapolated profit for the year is a huge red number, $-124,181,111, significantly larger than my career balance. It's silly to look at this number so early in the year, but I find it mildly entertaining :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      88   21    17    99000

delta: $49,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,112,268
2022 balance: $-3,062,000
blue distance: $3,079,200
balance: $91,781,953

The mysterious disappearing tournament

I've written before about the mysterious disappearing opponent. In this post, I want to discuss a related phenomenon - the mysterious disappearing tournament. My habitual procedure when a tournament is over (over for me, that is) is to take a screenshot of the tournament lobby. At this point, the lobby will be displaying all of the data that I keep track of in my poker database, including poker style, poker flavor, buy in, entry fee, number of entries, number of paid places, my finishing place, and my winnings (if any). I rely on these screenshots. On Friday night, after the tournament was over for me, I closed the main window of the PokerStars client by mistake. That closed all of its child windows, including the tournament lobby window. No problem, I thought; I'll just start up the PokerStars client again, find the tournament in the list of tournaments in the main window, bring up its lobby, and take my screenshot. The trouble was, I couldn't find the tournament; it had somehow disappeared. I remember that it was an MTT NLHE with a $100,000 buy in, and that I didn't make the money, but don't remember the other data. Be that as it may, I've now had seven losing sessions to start this poker year. That's a serious losing streak. I need to stop the bitch :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6       ?    ?     ?        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,063,268
2022 balance: $-3,111,000
blue distance: $3,128,200
balance: $91,732,953

Worst start of a poker year

I've never started a poker year with six straight losing sessions. Never, that is, until this year. Not only that, I've lost more money in the first six sessions of this year than I've lost in the first six sessions of all four of the years I previously lost money in the first six sessions, combined. Here are the numbers:

     10568 2009-03-24 2009-04-02 (3)
     -2425 2010-01-02 2010-01-14 (3)
     29192 2011-01-05 2011-01-13 (3)
    -33015 2012-01-03 2012-01-09 (2)
     94225 2013-01-01 2013-01-07 (5)
    222906 2014-01-02 2014-01-09 (6)
    -10010 2015-01-01 2015-01-07 (1)
    613930 2016-01-01 2016-01-07 (5)
    225400 2017-01-01 2017-01-11 (4)
   -508000 2018-01-01 2018-01-08 (2)
    884000 2019-01-01 2019-01-08 (2)
   1021000 2020-01-02 2020-01-07 (4)
    300000 2021-01-01 2021-01-06 (2)
  -3011000 2022-01-01 2022-01-06 (0)

I need to make some adjustments. Here are my intentions:

1. just say no to bounties

2. just say no to tournaments with a buy in >= $500,000.

We'll see how I do :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   220000  30000       9     409   71   183        0
MTT   NLHE   500000      0       9     157   27    55        0

delta: $-750,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,163,268
2022 balance: $-3,011,000
blue distance: $3,028,200
balance: $91,832,953

An improved understanding of guarantees

Last night's tournament gave me the information I needed to improve my understanding of guarantees. It turns out some of my previous assertions about them were just plain wrong. Here's what I now understand:

1. I have joined guarantees before

2. Guarantees, like all tournaments, have an entry fee

3. PokerStars doesn't advertise what the entry fees are for guarantees; they simply advertise what they call the buy in; however, this amount is really the sum of the actual buy in and the hidden entry fee

4. PokerStars provides you with the information you need to calculate what the entry fee for the tournament was, as long as enough players joined the tournament to cover the guarantee; in this case, you can use the following formulas:

actual_buy_in = prize_pool / num_entries

entry_fee = stated_buy_in - actual_buy_in

5.There's no foolproof way to calculate the entry fee if not enough players joined the tournament to cover the guarantee. However, that's a rare event, and the easiest thing to do in this case is simply to declare that the actual buy in is the same as the stated buy in, which makes the entry fee zero.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   880000 120000       9     300   55    91        0

delta: $-1,000,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-5,407,820
2022 balance: $-2,261,000
blue distance: $2,278,200
balance: $92,582,953

The whites of its eyes

“Don’t fire till you see the whites of their eyes!” is one of the most famous quotations to come out of the Revolutionary War. According to hallowed American tradition, the provincial commander at the Battle of Bunker Hill bellowed those words to his soldiers, warning them to preserve their gunpowder until their muskets could do the most damage to the British regulars.

https://allthingsliberty.com/2020/06/who-said-dont-fire-till-you-see-the-whites-of-their-eyes/

Last night, I played another guarantee (my shorthand for a tournament with a guaranteed prize pool). I didn't fire at it until I saw the whites of its eyes :-) I joined when there was only one minute left in the late registration period. I lasted long enough to have an excellent shot at making the money, but my stack went on life support on a hand where I was ahead after the turn but lost to a rivered flush. I hit the rail shortly after, four spots away from the money. Even though enough players joined to cover the $75,000,000 guarantee, there was no entry fee. I still don't have proof that entry fees come into play in guarantees in certain circumstances, but can't believe they wouldn't. I'll keep my eyes open. What I do know for sure is that they're a lot of fun to play :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   500000     0       9     152   27    31        0

delta: $-500,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,663,268
2022 balance: $-1,261,000
blue distance: $1,278,200
balance: $93,582,953

No entry fee - whee!

Last night I joined a tournament with a guaranteed prize pool, which I'd never done before. Why am I so sure of this? For the simple reason that I didn't have to pay an entry fee, and I've had to pay an entry fee in every other tournament I've ever played. The buy in was $500,000, and the guaranteed prize pool was $75,000,000. That meant the tournament had to attract 150 players in order to break even; any less, and PokerStars would actually lose money. You gotta love that :-) As it happened, last night's tournament only attracted 149 players, so PokerStars was on the hook for the missing $500,000.

What I'm not clear on is if (and how) PokerStars would calculate an entry fee if more than 150 players joined. It wouldn't make financial sense for them not to; if they didn't, they'd never make any money at all from tournaments with a guaranteed prize pool. I can find out easily enough simply by playing more guarantees. I'm sure last night's tournament was an anomaly; I'm willing to bet that PokerStars breaks even on guarantees north of 90% of the time.

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   500000     0       9     149   26    47        0

delta: $-500,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,163,268
2022 balance: $-761,000
blue distance: $778,200
balance: $94,082,953

Not enough patience

On Sunday night, I played another 9max bounty. Regrettably, I still didn't have enough patience to wait until the end of the late registration period to join; I really need to work on that. I made it to station 1.125, but that's worth about as much as a bucket of warm spit :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   220000  30000       9     420   71   135        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-4,407,820
2022 balance: $-261,000
blue distance: $278,200
balance: $94,582,953

Shot from guns

On the strength of making the money in a 9max bounty tournament on New Year's Eve, I decided to play another last night. I made the money, but it was funny funny money - I actually ended up taking a small loss, since the payouts on the lower rungs of the pay ladder didn't cover the buy in plus the entry fee. I've decided to play 9max bounties frequently, for a change of pace, even though I swore I wouldn't play them again. They're actually quite fun to play, and really reward patience. I've decided to make it a habit to wait to join such a tournament until its late registration period is almost up, to take advantage of the fact that the longer I wait, the more dead money there will be in the prize pool.

On the very first hand of last night's tournament, I got a premium holding, shoved, knocked out an opponent, received a bounty, and doubled up. I'd been dealt a big slick, and was happy to go all in with it. One of the really refreshing things about playing 9max is that the blinds come around less frequently; I could get used to that :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   220000  30000       9     471  89     78   239000

delta: $-11,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-4,157,820
2022 balance: $-11,000
blue distance: $28,200
balance: $94,832,953

My 2021 poker year in review

Tournaments played: 294

Money finishes: 134

ITM percentage: 45.58

Wagered: $52,061,000

Won: $69,239,500

Profit: $17,178,500

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      68   18    11   414000
MTT-B NLHE   880000 120000       9     278   53    14  1337000

delta: $551,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,663,268
2021 balance: $17,178,500
blue distance: $17,200
balance: $94,843,953