Friday, July 31, 2015

What gets you there

To do well in 8-game tournaments, you need to be good at all the flavors, and excellent at some. You need to be good at all of them so that you don't have weaknesses which can easily be exploited by your opponents. You need to be excellent at some to give you the edge over other players who are good at all the flavors, but not excellent at as many as you are.

To be good at all the flavors, you need to be able to examine the truth lying there in your hand histories. You can kid yourself all you want about how good you are; that's exactly why you need to look at the actual data to find out how full of shit you are, or might be. Numbers don't lie. You need to identify the flavors where you're weak, so you can try to get stronger at them.

One nice side effect of looking for your weaknesses is that you can't help but find your strengths also. Your strengths are what power you into the money; they're "what gets you there" :-) Here are the flavor aggregates from the second sit and go 8-game I entered last night:

       550       1925      -1375     12 Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit
      -675        325      -1000     17 Hold'em Limit
      1205       2630      -1425     18 Omaha Hi/Lo Limit
       740       2310      -1570     29 Razz Limit
      4996       5671       -675     18 7 Card Stud Limit
       235        420       -185      5 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit
       509        529        -20      7 Hold'em No Limit
       -60          0        -60      5 Omaha Pot Limit


It was a nice surprise to see how well I did in Omaha Hi/Lo Limit. I've tended in the past to lump Omaha Hi/Lo Limit and Omaha Pot Limit into the same mental category (namely, "poker flavors I hate, which I should never spend any money on"). I'm going to have to adjust my thinking.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   8-Game   9000  1000       6    56     6        0
SNG   8-Game   9000  1000       6   111     1    35100


delta: $15,100
Sit and go 8-game $9,000 buy in balance: $86,000
balance: $8,949,673

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Doubly sweet

I'm constantly on the lookout for poker sweet spots. Periodically, I find them, but none thus far have proven to be permanent. So, poker nomad that I am, I move on :-) There are many axes of sweetness; two of the most obvious are poker flavor and buy in. If you can hit the sweet spot on multiple axes at the same time, you're doing very well.

Although I've only played a tiny sample of sit and go 8-game tournaments at the $9,000 buy in level, this combination has the makings of a doubly sweet spot. Here are my place counts so far:

place    count(*)
1    3
2    4
3    1
5    2
6    1
count(*)
11


This translates to a profit of $70,900. I'm going to run the sample up to 100 tournaments (for a start) and see where I am when I get there. If I can keep up my current pace, my profit will be just shy of $645,000 at that point.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   8-Game   9000  1000       6   130     1    35100


delta: $25,100
Sit and go 8-game $9,000 buy in balance: $70,900
balance: $8,934,573

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Memorable cooler

If a memorable hand is defined to be one where you remember both the winning and the losing holdings, then by far the majority of memorable hands for me are the ones I lose in a cooler situation. That's what happened in the middle tournament of the three I played last night. I'd been dealt king small of diamonds, and hit a flush on the turn. I got into a raising war with one other player, and eventually went all in on the turn. At showdown, my opponent turned over ace small of diamonds, and I was gone. I lost a whopping $11,491. I say whopping since I was playing a massive field MTT again. I know I said I'd try to stay away from them since they don't have profit potential, but they're so fun to play I have to play one every now and then :-)

My "percent at turn" utility tells me that my king small holding beat 98% of all the possible holdings my opponent could have at that point. Of course, he had one of the 2% of holdings that beat me. Going all in was the right thing to do, even though it didn't pan out.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    76    31        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    24   462        0
SNG   8-Game   9000  1000       6   187     2    18900


delta: $2,900
MTT 8-game balance: $170,320
balance: $8,909,473

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Anatomy of an MTT 8-game loss

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the first MTT I entered last night (an MTT 8-game), one hand sticks out like a sore thumb. It's hand 21. Let me check the archives ...

Ah, yes. That was the limit hold'em hand where the river put the fourth spade to a flush on the board, and I had no choice but to fold. I lost $800. I had a pair of aces, which probably would have won the hand in other circumstances. Here are my delta aggregates by flavor for that MTT:

       -80          0        -80      2 Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit
      -960          0       -960      4 Hold'em Limit
      -180          0       -180      3 Omaha Hi/Lo Limit
      -150        424       -574      7 Razz Limit
       -40          0        -40      2 7 Card Stud Limit
       300        370        -70      3 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit
      -330          0       -330      3 Hold'em No Limit
       -60          0        -60      3 Omaha Pot Limit


I couldn't stick to my resolution; I entered an MTT HORSE immediately after losing the 8-game. I lasted a bit longer in that one, actually.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    27    49        0
MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    49    50        0


delta: $-10,000
MTT 8-game balance: $175,320
balance: $8,906,573

Monday, July 27, 2015

Another min cash

Last night, I made the money in an MTT 8-game again. Six players received the lowest payout, and I was the sixth one. In other words, I min cashed, bubbling the next higher payout. Just for fun, I calculated my hourly rate on the night. Since I won $300, and played for just over an hour, my rate was just a squeak under 5 dollars an hour.

I've now played 75 MTT 8-games, and have made the money in 33 of them. Friends and neighbors, that means I'm making the money at a 44% clip. I may never go back to cash games again :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6   102    19     5300


delta: $300
MTT 8-game balance: $180,320
balance: $8,916,573

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Three great reasons to just say no to HORSE

One great reason should be enough to say no to practically anything. Three great reasons is a slam dunk. Here are three great reasons to just say no to HORSE:

1. there's no no limit hold'em
2. there's no deuce
3. it's 8-max, not 6-max

I have to admit, the only reason I play HORSE at all any more is for something to while away the time as I wait for an 8-game to start. That's a bad reason to play it, and I'll try to be more patient the next time that situation arises.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    20    52        0
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    63    32        0


delta: $-10,000
MTT 8-game balance: $180,020
balance: $8,916,273

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Under the lights

I've been kidding you, and I've been kidding myself. Let me try to determine which is easier, and which is more difficult, to do. As a given, the easiest thing in the world to do is to kid yourself; therefore, perforce is must be more difficult to kid you. How have I been kidding you (and, by extension, myself?) I'll tell you how. I've been pretending that it doesn't matter to me whether or not I make a profit when I play poker. Such utter bullshit! In fact, it means a great deal to me always to be able to make a profit when I play poker. Stated another way, it means a great deal to have the ability to make a profit at will. I need to be able to believe, and with good reason, that I'm always and ever the captain of my own poker fate.

So let me tell you what I've come to realize. It means nothing to challenge myself if the odds aren't right. It's precisely the wrong thing to do to challenge myself when the odds are wrong. I recognize now that playing massive field MTTs is the wrong way to challenge myself. The profit potential just isn't there, and there must always be a profit potential. Otherwise, what's the point?

One very nice feature of making the final table of an MTT on PokerStars is that the software makes you feel very good about it. They actually add spotlights to the interface to make you feel super special!

Last night, I got back to the blue in a poker flavor. Specifically, my MTT 8-game balance hit an all-time high. It would be foolish for me to play any other flavor than MTT 8-game at this juncture.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    91    79     3402

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6   205     4    26390

delta: $23,792
MTT 8-game balance: $185,020
balance: $8,926,273

Friday, July 24, 2015

Double the chips

Chips are the lifeblood of poker. Without them, you must relinquish your seat at the table. It's always a good thing to have more of them! That includes having more of them to start play with. In a tournament, everyone starts with the same amount of chips. I've been getting very used to a starting amount of 1,500. Last night, in the final MTT I entered, I got a pleasant surprise; everyone's initial stack was 3,000. Double the chips! Of course, double the chips wouldn't have meant much if the antes and blinds had also been doubled, but thankfully they weren't. I contend that the bigger everyone's starting stack is, the greater the advantage skilled players have over those less skilled. I ended up making the money in that double chip tournament. Tonight, I'll be on the lookout for more of them :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

   900   100       9     7   464        0
   900   100       6     3   416        0
   900   100       9    63   204     1666


delta: $-1,334
MTT NLHE balance: $-23,174
balance: $8,902,481

Thursday, July 23, 2015

First massive field MTT cash

Last night, I played three massive field MTTs, and achieved my first massive field MTT cash. I won $2,220 for coming in 135th of 881 players. It's hard for me to explain how fun I find these tournaments, or why I'm so content to play them when it very likely means that my bankroll will stagnate. The best way I can find to explain it is that these tournaments are a colossal challenge, the biggest I've encountered in my poker career to date, and the only way to feel completely fulfilled as a poker player is by taking on the biggest challenges you can.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    62   135     2220
MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    19   287        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       6    17   339        0


delta: $-780
MTT NLHE balance: $-21,840
balance: $8,903,815

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Futile decade

With last night's losing session, I've now set a new personal worst for losing sessions in a row; it's currently 10, and counting. That's what I call a futile decade :-) My next worst losing session streak is 7 in a row. The thing is, I'm not playing badly. I'm discovering that you can play a lot of huge field MTTs and fail to make the money. They're really fun, and cheap to play, so I'm not giving up on them.

My final hand of the night was a brutal one. I'd been dealt pocket rockets, and went all in after the flop. I was a 77.88% favorite after the flop, and a 79.55% favorite after the turn, but it wasn't meant to be. My opponent hit a flush on the river, and that was all she wrote.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   NLHE      900   100       6    39   349        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       9     3   280        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       6    44   318        0


delta: $-3,000
MTT NLHE balance: $-21,060
balance: $8,904,595

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Guaranteed action

Poker players love action, since action is the engine which builds (and sometimes destroys) your stack. In huge field MTTs, I'm finding that you get action in spades. It's a bit too much of a good thing, actually. Last night, I played four huge field MTTs, and didn't make the money in any of them. I consider that I got my money in good on every hand where I hit the felt, however. Let's take a look:

MTT 1: I was dealt pocket eights, went all in preflop, and got one caller, who'd been dealt ATo (ace ten offsuit). I was a 55.25% favorite to win the hand, but lost to trip aces.

MTT 2: I was dealt Ah Kh, went all in preflop, and got one caller, who'd been dealt Ac Ad. I was an 11.51% underdog, and lost to his pair of aces. Still, I consider that I got my money in good. This was what I call a retroactive bad beat :-)

MTT 3: I was dealt Ad Kd, went all in preflop, and got two callers. One had been dealt J9o (jack nine offsuit) and the other had been dealt a pair of fours. I had a 41.23% chance of winning, the J9o had a 28.54% chance, the pair of fours had a 29.83% chance, and there was a .4% chance there'd be a three way chop. The pair of fours won with a full house, fours full of threes.

MTT 4: I was dealt pocket jacks, went all in preflop, and got one caller, who'd been dealt Q7s (queen seven suited). I was a 68.75% favorite to win the hand, but lost to two pair, queens and sevens.

The largest field was in the second MTT, which had a colossal 993 entries. That MTT paid an incredible 240 places. The closest I came to making the money was in the first MTT, which had 783 entries and paid 189 places; I came in 214th.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    43   214        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       6    27   341        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       9     8   423        0
MTT   NLHE      900   100       6    28   443        0


delta: $-4,000
MTT NLHE balance: $-18,060
balance: $8,907,595

Monday, July 20, 2015

226 balloons

MTTs with huge fields put me in mind of hot air balloon races. They're really colorful and exciting. They have the strange combination of making me feel like I'm on my own and yet also an integral participant in some bizarre form of performance art. You don't know where the wind will take your balloon; you just hope it takes it higher and farther than the others :-)

Last night, I played in my largest field yet - 226 players. Of course, it was no limit hold'em. No other poker flavor would be able to attract that large a field. I made the money. I've now played 100 MTTs, and have made the money in 40 of them.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   NLHE     9000  1000       9    12    49        0
MTT   NLHE     4500   500       9    39    31     4740


delta: $-10,260
MTT NLHE balance: $-14,060
balance: $8,911,595

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Plenty of fish

Last night, after playing an MTT 8-game, I tried finding an MTT deuce. I ended up registering for an MTT no limit hold'em by mistake. That turned out to be fortuitous, since I made the money :-) I can say unequivocally that it was the largest field I've ever been in - a whopping 204 players. Fully 48 places made the the money. I think this may be my new favorite MTT type. One major reason I think I can do well in this type of tournament is that to my knowledge there are more players with an inflated sense of their abilities in no limit hold'em than in any other poker flavor. Plenty of fish, in other words :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    43    53        0
MTT   NLHE     4500   500       6    50    38     9600


delta: $-400
MTT NLHE balance: $-3,800
balance: $8,921,855

Saturday, July 18, 2015

The trouble with Omaha

If you've played enough Omaha, you realize that the title of this post is an inside joke. The joke, of course, is that there could ever be only one trouble with Omaha :-) Omaha is every poker trouble you can possibly imagine, and all those you can't imagine in addition. If I were forced at gunpoint to choose a single trouble associated with Omaha, I'd have to pick Omaha itself. To use the immortal words of Walter White from "Breaking Bad" in a poker context: Omaha is the danger.

Unfortunately, there's no way to avoid Omaha when you play mixed games. If I were smart, I'd fold every Omaha hand at the earliest possible opportunity, and only ever be out the antes and blinds. Of course, I'm not that smart :-) Last night, I hit the felt when I missed the forest for the trees on an Omaha hand. When playing Omaha, I'm always so concerned about losing to a higher hand type that I sometimes fail to account for hands of the same type as mine which can beat me. That's what happened in this case. I flopped a wheel (a five high straight), bet it big, and kept betting in subsequent betting rounds when the community cards failed to support a flush or a full house. Of course, I was beaten by a better straight. God, how I hate Omaha :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    61    21     4310
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    78    33        0


delta: $-5,690
MTT 8-game balance: $168,630
balance: $8,922,255

Friday, July 17, 2015

Saved by deuce

Last night, in the one MTT 8-game I played, I was saved by deuce. I was short stacked when the game switched to deuce, but won four big pots in a row to really get back in the running. Had that been an MTT HORSE tournament, I would have been dead in the water. As a reminder, neither deuce nor no limit hold'em are poker flavors in HORSE. I might try my hand at an MTT deuce tournament tonight, if there is such a thing :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    34    38        0
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6   130    12     6480

delta: $-3,520
MTT 8-game balance: $174,320
balance: $8,927,945

Thursday, July 16, 2015

A bad century

The last time my cash game no limit hold'em balance was in the blue was way back on July 4th of last year. Since then, I've played exactly 100 cash game no limit hold'em sessions, and have lost $648,451 in them. That's what I call a bad century! I really feel like I need a break from this poker flavor. It's just not any fun right now.

Last night, I started my moratorium. I played two MTTs, one an 8-game and the other a HORSE. I didn't cash in either one, but did have fun :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    71    21        0
MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    31    29        0


delta: $-10,000
MTT 8-game balance: $172,840
balance: $8,931,465

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Telerailing

Last night, the November Nine in this year's WSOP Main Event were determined. Everyone in the poker world, myself included, was pulling hard for Daniel Negreanu to make it into the November Nine. Even though I was 2,389 miles away from the action, I was able to be one of Daniel's railbirds through the magic of PokerNews, PokerStars, and Twitter. I call that "telerailing" :-) Kudos to Remko Rinkema for his timely and informative tweets; they made me feel as if I were there. I finally went to bed at about 2 A.M. eastern time, when there were just 11 players remaining, including Daniel. This morning, I discovered that he busted in 11th place. That matched his best previous main event finish, in 2001. I'm sure that repeating in that fashion puts him in some pretty rare company; the only other player I know of who's ever had the same place finish in two Main Events is Mark Newhouse, who came in 9th in both 2013 and 2014.

While I was telerailing, I was also playing poker. The most notable thing about last night's session was the huge amount of chips in play at the table; at one point, it was $2,718,748. This total dwarfed the previous high water mark, which was $1,814,762 and occurred during the session I played on December 5th, 2014. One player alone had a stack of about 1.8 million play dollars! I'm sure that's the first time I've seen a player's stack top the 1 million mark.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 63 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 8 times while in big blind (50%)
 - 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 20 out of 47 times in other positions (42%)
 - a total of 28 out of 63 (44%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,363,476
balance: $8,941,465

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Some explaining to do

I can't for the life of me tell you
What all this is really about
So I'm leaving you with a burden of proof
And a strong case of reasonable doubt

Honey, it looks like you got some explaining to do
Honey, it looks like you got some explaining to do

...

Evan Dando, "It Looks Like You"

I can't swear to it, but I like to think that the chorus of this song was inspired by the classic sitcom "I Love Lucy". A recurring line of Ricky's in the show was: "Lucy! You've got some 'splainin' to do!"

Why did I pick this for a blog post title? For the simple reason that PokerStars has some 'splainin' to do :-) Actually, I don't know that for a fact; the quant in me just strongly suspects it. I've mentioned before that I don't make a long term profit on the cash game no limit hold'em hands where I don't go all in. In fact, I've made a hefty long term loss on those hands. Thankfully, I've made an even heftier long term profit on the hands where I do go all in, so everything's fine. I never bothered to look at the bar chart of the running total of my non all in hands until this morning. What I saw shocked me; it certainly wasn't what I expected. Instead of a nice steady decline, I saw an up and down early history followed by a dramatic, and apparently irreversible, decline. The bar chart of the running total of my all in hands didn't show anything unusual, just a nice steady increase. What could explain the dramatic decline in the running total of my non all in hands? I came up with a theory this morning, and want to state it here before I test it out. My theory is that the dramatic decline started when PokerStars instituted a rake in its play money games. And now to test it out ...

The results are inconclusive. The first cash game no limit hold'em session I played where PokerStars instituted a non-zero rake was on July 1st, 2012. My non all in running total didn't dip into the red for good until November 26th, 2013. Although it's true that the decline comes after the institution of the non-zero rake, it doesn't come soon enough after it for my liking. I need to come up with another theory. It looks like I'm the one with some explaining to do :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 153 hands and saw flop:
 - 15 out of 21 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 10 out of 22 times while in small blind (45%)
 - 43 out of 110 times in other positions (39%)
 - a total of 68 out of 153 (44%)
 Pots won at showdown - 11 of 23 (47%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-85,726
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,413,476
balance: $8,991,465

Monday, July 13, 2015

Retroactive bad beats

There are some hands you lose which feel exactly like bad beats, even though they're not. The reason they're not is that the turn and river cards had nothing to do with why you lost. The reason they feel exactly like bad beats is that you had every reasonable expectation of winning the hand. What you discover at showdown, to your chagrin, is that your opponent had you beat from the very beginning.  I hereby dub such hands retroactive bad beats :-)

I had a retroactive bad beat at the very end of my session last night. I was dealt Qh 4h, the flop came Qd Jc 8d, the turn was 5s, and the river was 9c. I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt pocket rockets. For the record, it was the 332nd time in my cash game no limit hold'em career that I've hit the felt.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 74 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 9 times while in big blind (44%)
 - 4 out of 9 times while in small blind (44%)
 - 21 out of 56 times in other positions (37%)
 - a total of 29 out of 74 (39%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 12 (41%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,499,202
balance: $9,077,191

Sunday, July 12, 2015

A fifty fifty night

Last night, I had a winning session which wasn't outstanding in any category, but was decent in all of them. I'm calling it a fifty fifty night since my seeing the flop percentage and my pots won at showdown percentage were both very close to 50. I've now won four sessions in a row. If I can extend the streak to nine sessions, I will have returned to the golden ratio.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 120 hands and saw flop:
 - 14 out of 16 times while in big blind (87%)
 - 10 out of 16 times while in small blind (62%)
 - 37 out of 88 times in other positions (42%)
 - a total of 61 out of 120 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 17 (52%)
 Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $25,171
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,549,202
balance: $9,127,191

Saturday, July 11, 2015

Top 5 three bagger

Last night, I had my third winning cash game no limit hold'em session in a row. The last time I accomplished such a streak was way back on December 11th. This latest 3 bagger made it to the fifth spot on my career list; here are the top 10:

$421,212 2014-07-02 2014-07-04 (2)
$391,169 2014-06-30 2014-07-02 (3)
$339,837 2014-02-03 2014-02-05 (3)
$327,342 2012-06-29 2012-07-01 (3)
$280,422 2015-07-08 2015-07-10 (3)
$279,076 2014-02-04 2014-04-10 (2)
$278,809 2012-06-27 2012-06-30 (3)
$273,260 2014-07-01 2014-07-03 (2)
$268,902 2014-02-05 2014-04-11 (2)
$237,025 2011-05-06 2011-05-10 (3)


During current Hold'em session you were dealt 111 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 15 times while in big blind (73%)
 - 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
 - 27 out of 82 times in other positions (32%)
 - a total of 46 out of 111 (41%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 11 (45%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $62,663
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,524,031
balance: $9,102,020

Friday, July 10, 2015

Best big slick ever

Here's the awesome thing about poker: if you play long enough, wonderful things will happen to you :-) You might feel you don't deserve them, but actually, you do. The main reason they're happening is because you were patient enough to stay playing through the downswings and the bad beats. You loved the game enough to accept it unconditionally on its own terms. If you do that long enough, eventually you'll be richly rewarded.

Last night, I had the best big slick of my nearly seven year old poker career. On hand 2, I won a monster pot of $162,527 with just a pair of aces. Fully 70% of that was o.p.m. (other people's money). Winning $113,027 in 92 seconds, as I did, averages out to a profit of $1,228.55 per second. Not too shabby!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 3 hands and saw flop:
 - 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 1 out of 1 times in other positions (100%)
 - a total of 3 out of 3 (100%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $112,027
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,461,368
balance: $9,039,357

Thursday, July 9, 2015

The four poker work horses

There are ten different kinds of poker hands. Perhaps not too surprisingly, the middle four are the real work horses. The first three don't have enough oomph, and the last three are too rare. Due to the fact that I've saved the full hand histories of my cash game no limit hold'em hands for a number of years now, I have incontrovertible proof that the four poker work horses are three of a kind, straight, flush, and full house. Here are my current aggregates:

$-8,954,668    $1,108,378  $-10,063,046   high card
$-8,463,490   $12,264,016  $-20,727,506   one pair
 $2,794,850   $14,362,059  $-11,567,209   two pair
 $5,324,280    $8,116,392   $-2,792,112   three of a kind
 $5,263,986    $7,066,610   $-1,802,624   straight
 $5,393,742    $7,088,330   $-1,694,588   flush
 $6,006,333    $6,967,055     $-960,722   full house
   $584,101      $584,801         $-700   four of a kind
    $85,736       $85,736            $0   straight flush
    $55,688       $55,688            $0   royal flush


Last night, I achieved a cash game no limit hold'em session delta of over $100,000 for the 29th time, on the strength of a queen high flush on hand 28.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 29 hands and saw flop:
 - 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 0 out of 4 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 7 out of 23 times in other positions (30%)
 - a total of 9 out of 29 (31%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 4 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $105,732
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,349,341
balance: $8,927,330

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

AJo ofer

I've mentioned many times before that AJo (ace jack offsuit) is my worst hand by far. Last night, I was dealt AJo six times, and lost with it every time. Just for the record, the frequency was an outlier; I was getting dealt the hand nearly five times as frequently as I should have been. That's cruel and unusual treatment, considering how poorly I play it :-) The harshest blow was the first time I got it, on hand 8. The flop came Js Ah Qd. I ended up going all in, and lost to an opponent who had me covered, who'd been dealt pocket jacks. I lost $49,637 on the hand, and hit the felt. The total amount of money I've lost playing AJo in cash game no limit hold'em is now at an all time high of $628,796. With my next worst hand, ATo, I've only lost $280,296. A pittance, in comparison :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 142 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 19 times while in big blind (68%)
 - 12 out of 19 times while in small blind (63%)
 - 44 out of 104 times in other positions (42%)
 - a total of 69 out of 142 (48%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 14 (57%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-63,752
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,243,609
balance: $8,821,598

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

The rake factor

I made a successful return to cash games last night. It would have been more successful had I not failed to take into account the rake factor. There was an unusually long stretch of heads up play in the latter half of the session. I thought I was holding my own just fine, but after the session had ended, in looking over the data I discovered I'd lost a whopping $17,000 in that stretch. As it turned out, my opponent had only made a profit of about $6,000; the other $11,000 which I'd lost had gone to the rake. The rake factor gets bigger the fewer players there are at the table. I really need to keep that in mind going forward. Two players who play each other dead even will eventually both go bust, due to both of them having to pay the rake. To make a profit when heads up in a cash game, not only do you have to do better than your opponent, you have to do better enough than your opponent to offset the rake you have to pay. What an infernal contraption the rake is!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 274 hands and saw flop:
 - 93 out of 99 times while in big blind (93%)
 - 87 out of 98 times while in small blind (88%)
 - 40 out of 77 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 220 out of 274 (80%)
 Pots won at showdown - 39 of 66 (59%)
 Pots won without showdown - 68


delta: $20,488
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,307,361
balance: $8,885,350

Monday, July 6, 2015

The predictable result of my hubris

Last night, I had a top ten result, though not the one I wanted. I lost the eighth most chips I've ever lost in a single session. This was the predictable result of my hubris. I'd told myself that I was better than everybody else, and everybody else proved me wrong :-) I set a new personal worst as well - my balance is now the furthest from the blue it's ever been - $1,640,517, to be precise. I refuse to let the shortfall reach 2 million, but to help guard against that, I need to turn my attention once again to cash games.

High buy-in sit and gos definitely have a get-rich-quick allure, but I need to lash myself to the deck of my ship and ignore their siren call. There really are no short cuts to making a sustainable profit at poker, and I've proven that I require to be reminded of this fact, in dramatic fashion, time and time again :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    15     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    18     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    35     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    53     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    11     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    24     4        0

delta: $-300,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,401,300
balance: $8,864,862

Sunday, July 5, 2015

I can't stay away

Last night, I realized something about my poker self. Actually, to be precise, I realized something about myself, period :-) It happens to apply to my poker self as well, but it's in my general character. What I realized is that, well-founded or not, I have a ton of self-confidence. I actually believe I'm better at a variety of things than other people are, including my ability to play poker. The quickest way I've ever found to increase my stack is to play sit and go no limit hold'em. That's the reason I can never stay away from it for very long, no matter how hard I try. I'm actually finding it physically impossible to stop playing it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    33    50        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    79     2    94500


delta: $39,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $1,401,300
balance: $9,164,862

Saturday, July 4, 2015

43

For many years, my favorite number has been the number 43. I recognize that it's a lucky number. This is not to say that I understand why it's lucky; it's simply an acknowledgement of its specialness. Long ago, I told my oldest friend about my predilection for this number. Initially, he thought my notion was laughable. However, after seeing the number come up numerous times in auspicious circumstances, I think eventually he was won over to my way of thinking :-)

My favorite number and my favorite poker flavor are currently linked. I've now made the money in 29 of the 66 MTT 8-game tournaments I've played. Friends and neighors, that translates to a 43.94 percentage :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    66    18     5790
SNG   8-Game  45000  5000       6    33     6        0
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6   125     5    24270


delta: $-29,940
MTT 8-game balance: $182,840
balance: $9,125,362

Friday, July 3, 2015

Aces out

Last night, in the first MTT I played, I was dealt rockets on my final hand. I was an 80.81% favorite after the flop. I was an 81.82% favorite after the turn. However, I hit the rail when the river card made a straight on the board, and an opponent had a card which gave him a higher straight. That'a a brutal way to exit a tournament. I'm dubbing it "aces out" :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    50    30        0
MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    25    42        0
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    89    15     4680


delta: $-10,320
MTT 8-game balance: $162,780
balance: $9,155,302

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Worst MTT first hand ever

Last night, I set a new personal worst; I lost the most money I've ever lost on the first hand of an MTT. It was a total outlier, more that 1.5 times as big as the second worst first hand on the list. At $800, it was more than half of my starting stack of $1,500. What happened? It's simple really; my opponent had a polarizing betting pattern, and I just didn't believe he had the goods. In other words, I went with my read, but my read was wrong. Hey, it happens :-) I'd rather be true to my read and lose than wimp out before reaching showdown.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    13    59        0


delta: $-5,000
MTT HORSE balance: $-34,160
balance: $9,165,622

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

The green light

Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us.

― F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby


I believe in a green light too, albeit a different one from Gatsby's :-) My green light is the freedom to play without restraint which comes from having made the money in an MTT. The only way to win an MTT is by betting; you can fold your way into the money, but it's impossible to fold your way into a victory. Last night, after making the money in an 8-game, I chased a flush. It didn't pan out, and I lost a huge percentage of my chip stack. However, I don't regret chasing a bit; had I won that hand, I would almost certainly have made the final table.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    89    15     5140
MTT   HORSE    4500   500       8    38    23        0


delta: $-4,860
MTT 8-game balance: $168,100
balance: $9,170,622