Back to the 80s

After playing just seven "Hot 50K, 10M Chips GTD" tournaments, I realize I never want to play another. They're a losing proposition, plain and simple. The percentile required to make the money is exorbitant. I can stomach 72. I can even stomach 76. There's no way in hell I can stomach 80 and above.

This is an excerpt from my April 6 post. Just 24 days later, I'm forced to eat my words. Last night, I played another Hot 50K, and made the money. I have to remain true to my poker identity - I'm a tournament player, not a cash game player. Are my favorite tournaments still available on PokerStars? No. Do I still get enjoyment playing tournaments, even the ones which aren't my favorites? Yes. Can I still make a profit playing these suboptimal tournaments? I hope so :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       8     451   79    54    91700 

delta: $41,700
MTT NLHE balance: $43,920,668
2022 balance: $-1,851,870
blue distance: $3,953,860
balance: $92,992,083

Too much volatility

I've decided there's just too much volatility in cash games for my liking. Last night, I lost a full buy-in, taking a one million play dollar hit. There's nothing for it but to return to playing tournaments, even though my favorites are long gone. The closest I can get to what I like are the "Hot 50K, 10M Chips Gtd" tournaments, which are 8max, when my preferred table size is 6max. However, beggars can't be choosy.

delta: $-1,000,000
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,123,047
2022 balance: $-1,893,570
blue distance: $3,995,560
balance: $92,950,383

Not wrong is not long

"Long is wrong" is an old poker adage. It means that the longer you take to make a decision, the likelier it is that you'll make a bad one. This adage applies equally well to another poker scenario - the longer you play a cash game, the likelier you are to sustain a large loss. The corollary of "Long is wrong" is "Not wrong is not long". Last night, I had my second not wrong cash game in a row, and it wasn't long, lasting a mere 10 hands.

delta: $226,210
Cash game NLHE balance: $5,123,047
2022 balance: $-893,570
blue distance: $2,995,560
balance: $93,950,383

100K a hand

Last night's session was very short, and very sweet. I only played 6 hands, and averaged a profit of over 100K a hand. On my final hand, I was dealt Q4o (queen four offsuit), and paired both my hole cards on the flop. I was up against a loose player, and shoved. He called, my stealth two pair held up, and I got out of Dodge.

delta: $672,560
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,896,837
2022 balance: $-1,119,780
blue distance: $3,221,770
balance: $93,724,173

Stopping the bitch

Last night, I stopped the bitch, putting an end to my very expensive two session losing streak. I didn't do it in emphatic fashion, but at least I did it. I was forced to play a 6max cash game since all the 9max cash games were full. I keep going back and forth on which table size is better for cash games. 6max tournaments are way more profitable for me than 9max tournaments are, but I seem to play 6max cash and 9max cash equally well.

delta: $105,670
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,224,277
2022 balance: $-1,792,340
blue distance: $3,894,330
balance: $93,051,613

Back to the drawing board

The most I've ever lost in a single cash game is 2 million play dollars. I've only done that twice, but it was the last two cash games in a row. The 4 million play dollars I lost represented a little more than 4% of my overall balance. That's caught my attention. I need to go back to the drawing board. I'm going to stick with the $5,000/$10,000 tables, and with the maximum $1,000,000 buy in. However, I'm going to be religious about calling it a night if I hit the felt, from here on in.

delta: $-2,000,000
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,118,607
2022 balance: $-1,898,010
blue distance: $4,000,000
balance: $92,945,943

A slew of insalubrious slicks

It's a fact of poker life that quality holdings don't always beat inferior holdings. Last night, I was dealt a big slick at least four times; I don't remember winning a single one. I hit the felt twice, and lost the largest sum I've ever lost in a cash game - a cool two million play dollars. This is the second time in recent history that I've bought in again after hitting the felt, and it's a bonehead play. I'll try not to do it again.

delta: $-2,000,000
Cash game NLHE balance: $6,118,607
2022 balance: $101,990
blue distance: $2,000,000
balance: $94,945,943

Leviathan

On Saturday night, I won the biggest pot of my 3 year poker career. It weighed in at $193,950. That's a big pot. It's a whale of a pot. In fact, it's a leviathan.

This is an excerpt from my November 7, 2011 post. Last night, I won the biggest pot of my cash game poker career. It weighed in at $1,715,310. That makes my earlier whale look like a minnow :-)

delta: $715,310
Cash game NLHE balance: $8,118,607
2022 balance: $2,101,990
blue distance: $0
balance: $96,945,943

The catbird seat

In poker, there's nothing like being in the catbird seat. That's when you have a very strong hand, and opponents start betting into you. That's the position I found myself in on my final hand of the session. I was dealt the queen of spades and a smaller spade, flopped a flush draw, and turned a flush. I never even had to bet, even on the river. All I had to do was call. Three of us went to showdown; I more than doubled up, then got out of Dodge.

delta: $214,250
Cash game NLHE balance: $7,403,297
2022 balance: $1,386,680
blue distance: $272,650
balance: $96,230,633

To the nines

Sometimes, good luck seems to beget more good luck. In last night's cash game, I'd lost about half my starting stack when a hand came along which I probably should have backed away from, but didn't. I had an inkling I was going to make a straight, so I hung around. After the turn, I had a gutshot draw and called a decent-sized bet to see the river. Mirabile dictu, I filled it; that brought my stack almost all the way back. Not long after, I was dealt a pair of nines, flopped a set, and rivered quads. Exit, stage left :-)

delta: $431,900
Cash game NLHE balance: $7,189,047
2022 balance: $1,172,430
blue distance: $486,900
balance: $96,016,383

My favorite holding

I have a love/hate relationship with pocket rockets. To paraphrase Longfellow: when rockets are good, they're very good indeed, but when they're bad, they're horrid. Since I hate rockets as much as I love them, they can never be my favorite holding. That spot is reserved for the big slick. Last night, my stack vaulted into reverse tithing territory thanks to my favorite holding.

delta: $301,600
Cash game NLHE balance: $6,757,147
2022 balance: $740,530
blue distance: $918,800
balance: $95,584,483

Expected cash game outcomes

I've only played 12 cash games since I ended my lengthy hiatus from them, but I can already tell the relative frequencies of the outcomes I can expect, and like what I see. Here they are:

1. I make a small profit 80% of the time

2. I take a large loss 15% of the time

3. I make a large profit 5% of the time

I predict that small losses will be vanishingly rare. Last night, I took a large loss. I hit the felt when my flopped straight lost to a rivered full house. I should have called it a night right there, but bought in again and lost another $220,400 before coming to my senses and leaving the table.

delta: $-1,220,400
Cash game NLHE balance: $6,455,547
2022 balance: $438,930
blue distance: $1,220,400
balance: $95,282,88

Betting like you have it

Sometimes, the best way to win a pot is by leading the betting after the flop, after the turn, and after the river, doubling the size of your bet each time. In other words, by betting like you have it. You tell a consistent, believable story this way. There are several important things to remember:

1. you should have a hand which has a decent amount of potential

2. you should start betting before you know if your hand will achieve its potential

3. as long as you have the betting lead, you should continue betting, even if your hand never improves

I used this strategy on my final hand of last night's session, and it pushed my stack into reverse tithing territory.

delta: $124,380
Cash game NLHE balance: $7,675,947
2022 balance: $1,659,330
blue distance: $0
balance: $96,503,283

My biggest cash game pot ever

Last night, my overall balance returned to the blue in emphatic fashion, on the strength of my biggest cash game pot ever. On my final hand, I was dealt a big slick, and an opponent made a preflop bet that would put me all in if I called. I thought for a while, and came to the conclusion that if you're not willing to go all in preflop with a premium hand, why are you even playing poker? I made the call, as did another player behind me. My big slick held up against both opponents, and I raked in a pot worth $2,553,280.

delta: $1,553,280
Cash game NLHE balance: $7,551,567
2022 balance: $1,534,950
blue distance: $0
balance: $96,378,903

Rocket man

When you get dealt a particular hand at a much higher frequency than the norm, it's a little freaky (or perhaps I should say freq-y :-)) When that hand happens to be the best hold'em holding of them all, it's even freq-ier. Last night, in 204 sit and go no limit hold'em hands, I got dealt rockets 5, count 'em 5, times. That's more than 5 times as frequently as I should have been dealt them.

This is an excerpt from my February 23, 2016 post. I didn't record the number of hands I played last night, but I'm sure it was less than 150. I got dealt rockets twice. That means I was receiving them at least 2.9 times as frequently as I should have been. I won both times. The first brought my stack nearly back to its initial size, and the second gave me enough profit on the night to exit stage left :-)

delta: $120,110
Cash game NLHE balance: $5,998,287
2022 balance: $-18,330
blue distance: $275,030
balance: $94,825,623

The stone cold nuts

It's always good to have the nuts, but there's nothing like having the stone cold nuts.

This is an excerpt from my August 14, 2013 post. Last night, on my final hand of the session, I had the stone cold nuts - an ace high flush where I had the ace and the board hadn't paired. Every street, someone else had bet and I was content just to call, not wanting to scare anyone off the hand. I didn't bet on the river, putting a check raise in play. Unfortunately, neither opponent who was still in the hand bet at that point, but regardless of that, I raked in a huge pot and vaulted into the black. Needless to say, my feeling of invincibility hasn't gone away :-)

delta: $359,410
Cash game NLHE balance: $5,878,177
2022 balance: $-138,440
blue distance: $395,140
balance: $94,705,513

Feeling flush

The story arc of many a successful cash game session goes something like this:

1. slowly lose about a quarter of your starting stack before you win your first pot

2. regain about half what you've lost when you win your first pot

3. porpoise for a while, winning small pots here and there while waiting for a monster hand

4. catch a monster, bet it big, and vault into the black

5. get out of Dodge

My monster hand last night was a flush, and it left me feeling flush :-)

delta: $561,720
Cash game NLHE balance: $5,518,767
2022 balance: $-497,850
blue distance: $754,550
balance: $94,346,103

Give my regards to Broadway

Last night, I registered my fourth reverse tithing session in a row. I'm feeling invincible, which is always a bad sign :-) On my final hand, I had a gutshot draw after the turn, and filled it with a river queen. Give my regards to Broadway!

delta: $100,410
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,957,047
2022 balance: $-1,059,570
blue distance: $1,316,270
balance: $93,784,383

Waiting on a friend

"Waiting on a Friend" is one of my favorite Rolling Stones songs. I find it applicable to poker, one of my favorite games. A good hand is the friend all poker players wait on. Last night, my waiting was not in vain ...

This is an excerpt from my January 27, 2021 post. It applies equally well to last night's session. On my final hand, I hit a full house on the river, pushing my profit above the $100,000 mark for the first time. I got out of Dodge pronto :-)

delta: $146,330
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,856,637
2022 balance: $-1,159,980
blue distance: $1,416,680
balance: $93,683,973

Reverse tithing

The most profitable year of my online poker career to date was 2017, when I made just north of 34 million. I think I've figured out a way to make at least 30 million every year, virtually risk-free. I'm calling it reverse tithing. Here's the plan:

1. play at least 300 sessions a year

2. play only cash games

3. play only the cash games which have $5,000/$10,000 blinds

4. always join for the maximum buy in ($1,000,000)

5. end each session as soon as you've made a profit of at least $100,000

Last night's session was my second reverse tithing in a row. I'm going for three tonight.

delta: $100,910
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,710,307
2022 balance: $-1,306,310
blue distance: $1,563,010
balance: $93,537,643

All the time in the world

I'm finding it a bit strange that now, after essentially being forced to play cash games again (after having sworn off them "for life"), I'm rediscovering that they have some fantastic features I downplayed before. Let me enumerate:

1. no antes

2. no escalating blinds

3. no freeze-outs

Taken together, these yield a fourth:

4. all the time in the world

Time is your enemy in tournament poker, but in cash game poker, time can be your friend, if you're patient enough. In cash game poker, luck comes in and out like the tide. Although that's true in tournament poker as well, often you won't have the time to wait for the tide to come back in. In cash game poker, you always have the time. If you're willing to take small profits, you're virtually guaranteed to make a killing in the long run :-)

delta: $136,080
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,609,397
2022 balance: $-1,407,220
blue distance: $1,663,920
balance: $93,436,733

Your aces are no good here

I played patiently last night, folding early and often. My stack got a big boost when an opponent with a bigger stack tried to buy a pot; I thought for about seven seconds, then made the call. I didn't go to another showdown until my final hand of the session. I was dealt rockets, hit a set on the flop, and shoved. I got two callers. One of them hit Broadway on the turn, and I was drawing super thin. The river was a brick, and I hit the felt. The poker gods were telling me "Your aces are no good here".

delta: $-400,000
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,473,317
2022 balance: $-1,543,300
blue distance: $1,800,000
balance: $93,300,653

New personal worst

The longer you've played poker, the harder it gets to set either a new personal best or a new personal worst. I've mentioned before that I get almost as much of a thrill from setting a personal worst as I do from setting a personal best. That may seem strange, but it's the truth. I love setting records of any kind :-)

This is an excerpt from my April 9, 2015 post. My new personal worst: last night, I lost the most play money I've ever lost in a single cash game - a whopping $800,000. My previous worst was less than half that - $350,000. The reason I lost so much? That table had much higher blinds than the cash game tables I'd normally played before. Back in the day, my sweet spot was tables where the blinds were $500/$1,000, and the minimum initial stake was $40,000. At last night's table, the blinds were $5,000/$10,000, and the minimum initial stake was $400,000. This is not deterring me from playing more cash games, but I'll change my table selection criteria slightly; instead of picking 6max, I'll pick 9max. 6max is ideal for tournaments, but not so much for cash games.

delta: $-800,000
Cash game NLHE balance: $4,873,317
2022 balance: $-1,143,300
blue distance: $1,400,000
balance: $93,700,653

Back to cash games

For the first four years of my online poker career, I played cash games exclusively. I swore off them when I became a specialist at tournaments. I found many things I liked about tournament poker, and quite a few things I disliked about cash games. I thought I'd never go back to cash games, but now I find I must. I love poker too much ever to give it up, but I have certain requirements which must be met for me to play. First and foremost, I require 6max. As I've mentioned before, PokerStars recently reduced its 6max tournament offerings drastically. My next requirement is that I refuse to play against superdonks. That means that rebuy/re-entry tournaments are out. Lately, PokerStars has only offered tournaments which allow unlimited re-entries during the late registration period. The practical upshot of these changes is that unless and until PokerStars brings back 6max no-re-entry tournaments, I can't play tournaments on PokerStars. That leaves sit and gos and cash games. I long ago swore off sit and gos since the increased entry fees made them unprofitable for me. So the only thing left is cash games. I'm actually kind of looking forward to them :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000  12000       9     182   54    87        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT NLHE balance: $43,878,968
2022 balance: $-343,300
blue distance: $600,000
balance: $94,500,653

A losing proposition

After playing just seven "Hot 50K, 10M Chips GTD" tournaments, I realize I never want to play another. They're a losing proposition, plain and simple. The percentile required to make the money is exorbitant. I can stomach 72. I can even stomach 76. There's no way in hell I can stomach 80 and above. I'd be a fool to continue playing them, and I won't. The Bankroll Builder tournaments aren't ideal, but at least they require a lower percentile to make the money. Bankroll Builders, here I come :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       8     470   79   117        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $44,178,968
2022 balance: $-43,300
blue distance: $300,000
balance: $94,800,653

Another personal borscht

Whenever I fail to have a winning session, any or all of the following being true is bound to cheer me up:

1. I played well
2. I got my money in good
3. I achieved a personal borscht of some sort

Check, check, and check.

This is an excerpt from my September 9, 2019 post. Last night, I checked all three boxes as well. On my final hand, I was dealt ATo (ace ten offsuit), paired my ace on the flop, and got all my chips into the middle. I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt A3o (ace three offsuit) and paired both his hole cards on the flop. Whatcha gonna do? The personal borscht was that I registered my highest percentile (82) ever in an MTT NLHE where I failed to make the money.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       8     411   71    74        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $44,228,968
2022 balance: $6,700
blue distance: $250,000
balance: $94,850,653

Baby cowboys into the sunset

"Baby cowboys" is my nickname for pocket jacks. Last night, my baby cowboys rode off into the sunset. Although that makes for a good movie ending, it's not what you're hoping for when playing poker. I lost to a rivered magic flush. As a reminder, a magic flush is when the board has four cards to a flush, and a player with one card of the magic flush suit wins the hand. It always hurts to get magic flushed. It hurts even more when you get magic flushed straight out of a tournament. Having failed to make the money in 4 of the 5 "Hot 50K, 10M Chips Gtd" tournaments I've played, I'm going to play a Bankroll Builder tonight for a change of pace.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       8     463   79   122        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $44,278,968
2022 balance: $56,700
blue distance: $200,000
balance: $94,900,653

Enumerating my unhappiness

There are several reasons why I dislike the tournaments I'm now essentially being forced to play, if I want to play tournament poker on PokerStars at all. Let me enumerate them:

1. the buy ins are too low, which translates to the bottom rungs of the pay ladder not being juicy enough

2. the maximum table size is 8, whereas 6 is what I prefer

3. unlimited re-entries are available during the late registration period, which means superdonks will eventually get wind of this and will then pollute these tournaments with their asinine play (this hasn't happened yet, but I'm sure it will)

4. these tournaments require a higher percentile to make the money; all four of the ones I've played so far have required a percentile above 80, whereas the midnight trains I loved so much (and fear are gone forever) typically required percentiles ranging from 72 to 75

I'll probably have to give Bankroll Builder tournaments another try at some point, but I'm not ready to do that yet.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       8     552   95   111        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $44,328,968
2022 balance: $106,700
blue distance: $150,000
balance: $94,950,653

Cowboys into the sunset

As is so often the case, the most memorable hand of last night's session was the final one. I'd been dealt cowboys (pocket kings) and got all my chips into the middle. I got one caller, who turned over A3o (ace three offsuit). That made me a 70.59% favorite before the flop. Unfortunately, my opponent paired his ace on the flop, and his aces held up. I had nothing to complain about, however, since on the way to that final hand I'd hit a magic flush when I was a decided underdog.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       8     529   87   104        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $44,378,968
2022 balance: $156,700
blue distance: $100,000
balance: $95,000,653

Sleepybye

Last night, my session ended with a sleepybye. That's what I call it when I fall asleep near the end of a tournament, and don't wake up until it's over. In such a situation, the PokerStars software automatically sits me out, and the blinds and antes eventually eat up the remainder of my stack.

This is an excerpt from my June 4, 2018 post. Last night, I registered another sleepybye.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000   6000       8     423   71   102        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $44,428,968
2022 balance: $206,700
blue distance: $50,000
balance: $95,050,653