I've only played 12 cash games since I ended my lengthy hiatus from them, but I can already tell the relative frequencies of the outcomes I can expect, and like what I see. Here they are:
1. I make a small profit 80% of the time
2. I take a large loss 15% of the time
3. I make a large profit 5% of the time
I predict that small losses will be vanishingly rare. Last night, I took a large loss. I hit the felt when my flopped straight lost to a rivered full house. I should have called it a night right there, but bought in again and lost another $220,400 before coming to my senses and leaving the table.
delta: $-1,220,400
Cash game NLHE balance: $6,455,547
2022 balance: $438,930
blue distance: $1,220,400
balance: $95,282,88
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