Equity avalanche

It's amazing, the devastation that can be wrought by the turn of a single card. Your equity in the hand can take a sudden, fatal downturn. That's what happened to me on the final hand of the second MTT NLHE I entered last night. I was dealt pocket nines, went all in preflop with them, and got one caller. When he turned over A7o (ace seven offsuit), I knew I was in great shape. The flop came 6s Qh 7d, and my equity increased from 70.43% to 79.80%. Then the avalanche struck. The turn card was the ace of diamonds, and the bottom dropped out of my equity. At this point I only had a 4.55% chance of winning the hand. You know the rest :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      56   12    19        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     9      64   18     0        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    54      73   21    37        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT NLHE balance: $3,708,668
2019 balance: $15,279,850
balance: $61,814,110

Backwards down the number line

This is the second time I've used this blog post title. The first was almost exactly nine years ago, on October 1, 2010. This time, I'm referring to the downward direction of my overall balance. I've lost an aggregate of 1.5 million play dollars in the last five sessions, and my blue distance is now within whispering distance of 4 million. It's still a far cry from my personal worst blue distance of $11,578,000, set last December 21, but it's not insignificant. I need a load of apples coming in :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    45      80   21     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      45    9    18        0

delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $47,743,000
2019 balance: $15,679,850
balance: $62,214,110

Double slickout

I played two tournaments last night, and both of them ended in a slickout. I'm not sure, but I think that may be a personal first. Both tournaments also featured lengthy tailfall counts - 26 and 15, respectively. I'm definitely mired in the poker doldrums. On the plus side, 2019 is still the second best year of my career, by far.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    60     112   30    60        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    36      46   12    39        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $47,993,000
2019 balance: $16,029,850
balance: $62,564,110

Premium shortage

Last night, in the MTT NLHE tournament I entered, I faced a severe shortage of premium hands. I wasn't dealt a single one. If I'd been receiving them at their normal pace, I would have been dealt at least two. What could I do? I worked with what I had, and didn't miss the money by much. In other news, I hit the rail in the MTT-R NLHE tournament I entered, with a holding of pocket jacks. As fate would have it, that was the only premium hand I received in the entire session.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    22      42    9    37        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    57      95   24    28        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $48,343,000
2019 balance: $16,429,850
balance: $62,964,110

yadcb

Last night, in the only MTT-R NLHE I entered, I suffered yadcb - yet another dead cat bounce. On hand 33, I gained 5,100 chips. On hand 34, I lost 125 chips. On hand 35, I lost my last 6,775 chips to hit the rail. Not surprisingly, it was a big goodbye. My blue distance has now topped the 3 million dollar mark. Time to get on my horse :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    35      45    9    16        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     5      99   24     -        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    21      44   12     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    40      84   21    33        0

delta: $-450,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,214,668
2019 balance: $16,579,850
balance: $63,114,110

The Judas card

Have I mentioned before that poker can be a cruel game? Sometimes, even the cruelest? That was borne out again for me last night, on my final hand. I was short-stacked, and shoved preflop with A3s (ace trey suited). I made a backdoor flush on the river, but the very card which gave me the flush gave my opponent a full house. Rail city. I just ran my percent at river utility on that hand. The verdict? My holding, in combination with the community cards, beat 97.17% of all possible opponent holdings. Cry me a river :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      56   12    22        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    14      89   21    52        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $48,593,000
2019 balance: $17,029,850
balance: $63,564,110

Immediate service

I first used this blog post title on September 20, 2015. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

One of my favorite poker commentators is Nick Wealthall. He provides commentary for online tournaments on PokerStars. One  phrase I really like which he uses quite often is "immediate service"; it refers to hitting a straight or flush draw as soon as possible, in other words on the turn.

Last night, I received immediate service on a straight draw, on hand 37 of the MTT NLHE tournament I entered. I had no real business being in the hand at that point, since it was a gutshot straight draw. However, I was being stubborn, and it paid off in this case.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    25      60   12    46        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   123      99   24     3   378000

delta: $228,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,564,668
2019 balance: $17,179,850
balance: $63,714,110

Fortuitous fall in

Last night, I had to survive a fall in to have a chance of making the money in the rebuy tournament I entered. Luck was on my side, and I survived it. Not only did I make the money, I made the first pay jump on the money ladder. That enabled me to have a nice profit on the session. I dare say I'll play another rebuy tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      67   15    12   408000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    34     128   36    42        0

delta: $258,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $48,793,000
2019 balance: $16,951,850
balance: $63,486,110

Slickout

I only played one tournament on Friday night, and it was a bust. I was only above water five hands, only received premium hands twice, and lost both times. My final holding was a big slick, so I suffered a slickout. On top of that, I suffered a freefall from the peak. My blue distance is approaching 3 million, and seems destined to surpass it. Am I worried, though? No :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    44      66   18    29        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,286,668
2019 balance: $16,693,850
balance: $63,228,110

Flowbig

Last night's session ended with a flowbig, my latest neo neo. It's shorthand for a "Flow My Tears, the Policeman Said" tournament which in addition ends with a big goodbye. In other words, a tournament which satisfies all of the following criteria:

1. I was never above water
2. I had a high chaparral count of 0
3. I lost over 90% of the hands
4. my largest absolute value delta was from a loss I suffered on the final hand

It should be no surprise that this was a rebuy tournament. Flowbigs are much more likely to happen in rebuy tournaments, due to the behavior of the superdonks.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    52      57   12    30        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    15      40   10     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    34      47   12    25        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $48,485,000
2019 balance: $16,793,850
balance: $63,328,110

Two false memories

Two memories stand out from last night's session, and both of them are false :-)

false memory #1: I couldn't resist playing another rebuy tournament (actually, I could)
false memory #2: I missed the money in the 8-game tournament I played (actually, I didn't)

I ground out two min cashes.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6   128      66   12    10    74000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    78     104   30    26    70000

delta: $44,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,436,668
2019 balance: $17,093,850
balance: $63,628,110

Flow My Tears, the Policeman Said

I couldn't resist; last night, I played another bounty tournament. It was nearly an official "Flow My Tears" tournament, since it came close to meeting all of the following criteria:

1. I was never above water
2. I had a high chaparral count of 0
3. I lost over 90% of the hands

The criterion it narrowly missed was the third one; in this case, I "only" lost 88% of the hands :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    17      49   12    31        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    41      51   12    16        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $48,685,000
2019 balance: $17,049,850
balance: $63,584,110

I hope I shall arrive soon

The longest sojourn of my career between blue sessions is 381 sessions. My current one is 28 and counting. The longer I'm out of the blue, the less I like it. I hope I shall arrive soon at my next blue session :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    13      32    9     -        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    27      59   12    37        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,416,668
2019 balance: $17,199,850
balance: $63,734,110

Bad beat little big goodbye

Last night, while double-tabling, I hit the rail in the first tournament I entered when an opponent hit a four outer on the river. I lost more on that hand than on any other in that tournament, so the outcome can be summarized as a bad beat little big goodbye. I lasted longer in the second tournament, but fared no better. I hate to say it, but I hear the siren call of the rebuy tournaments. We'll see how long I can withstand temptation :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    36      69   18    26        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    77      61   12    27        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,616,668
2019 balance: $17,449,850
balance: $63,984,110

Simultaneous centuries

Playing MTTs, I've achieved centuries many times. I've even achieved more than one in a single session. What I've never achieved is simultaneous centuries. Never, that is, until Friday night :-) For one thing, you need to be multi-tabling to achieve it, and I don't always multi-table. For another, it's mighty hard to do. Let me qualify that - although the numbers prove it's hard to do, when you're actually doing it, it feels like the easiest thing in the world. Poker's like that, and that's a big part of its appeal. Feeling like you can do no wrong never gets old :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6   113      71   18     7   103000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   123     128   36     4   380000

delta: $383,000
MTT 8-game balance: $1,552,170
2019 balance: $17,699,850
balance: $64,234,110

Mini blue

The best balance ever to have in the blue is your overall balance. The next best is your balance for the current year. A close third is your balance in a particular poker variant. Let's call that a mini blue :-) Since I've recently been playing MTT 8-Game more frequently, I decided to find out my blue distance in it. Mirabile dictu, it's 0. In other words, it's a mini blue :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    11     110   30    72        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    57      67   18    35        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    95      56   12     8    94000

delta: $-206,000
MTT 8-game balance: $1,499,170
2019 balance: $17,316,850
balance: $63,851,110

Partial Monty

I figured it was about time I came up with a neo neo, so I offer the Partial Monty for your consideration. As opposed to a Full Monty, which is a session where you make a profit of at least a million dollars, a Partial Monty is a session where you win at least a million dollars. In poker, winnings always exceed profit, since there is always a buy in and an entry fee. All Full Montys are Partial Montys, but not vice versa. Last night, I achieved the 72nd Partial Monty of my career. It was the 18th one which failed to qualify as a Full Monty.

In other news, I hit another #1 hand playing deuce, again on the third draw. That never gets old :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    86     101   24     9   632000
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    53      45    9    31        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6   200      60   12     3   378000

delta: $660,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,736,668
2019 balance: $17,522,850
balance: $64,057,110

Two memories

Two memories of last night's session really stand out. As it turns out, only one of them is true :-) The false memory was that my resolve not to play any more rebuy tournaments for the time being had failed me. I was feeling some shame, wondering how I'd explain this reversal on the blog. I'm relieved to know there's nothing to explain :-) The true memory was that I hit a #1 hand when I was playing deuce, on the third draw. Sweet!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    34     149   36    87        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    37      58   12    34        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    44      47    9    24        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    72     120   30    47        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,404,668
2019 balance: $16,862,850
balance: $63,397,110

Personal first

Last night, for the first time ever, I bubbled two consecutive tournaments. That takes both talent and luck :-) I should have called it a night right there, but played one more tournament. It would have been truly amazing if I'd bubbled that one as well, but that didn't happen.

In other news, the $50,000 that was mysteriously added to my PokerStars balance near the end of September 2016 was just as mysteriously removed last night. My balances will reflect this going forward, but it would be too much work to fix them retroactively.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    45      90   21    22        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    82      41    9    10        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    55      64   15    28        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-260,720
2019 balance: $17,062,850
balance: $63,597,110

Another personal borscht

Whenever I fail to have a winning session, any or all of the following being true is bound to cheer me up:

1. I played well
2. I got my money in good
3. I achieved a personal borscht of some sort

Check, check, and check. Granted, the first one is somewhat subjective. The other two can be determined objectively, however. On the last hand of the final tournament I entered, I went to showdown against two opponents. One was drawing dead, and the other only had 4 outs; I had 38. That made me a 90.48% favorite. That certainly qualifies as getting it in good. The personal borscht? I played the most hands ever (65) in an MTT NLHE where I failed to last until the end of the late registration period.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    44      62   18    29        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6    17      63   12    24        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    65      53   15     -        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $48,785,000
2019 balance: $17,362,850
balance: $63,947,110

Just say no to superdonks

Rebuy tournaments are no fun for me to play right now. My dissatisfaction is due to the superdonks. These are the players who go all in virtually every hand. There's no skill at all in this style of play, and it really ruins the experience for the skilled players. I've decided not to play rebuy tournaments for the time being, even though they're so lucrative. I'd rather make my play money in more enjoyable ways, even if that means I make less of it.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    56     148   36    44        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      71   15    32        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    36      38   10     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    38      70   18     -        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6   117      63   12     9   106000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      67   15    23        0

delta: $-644,000
MTT NLHE balance: $5,054,668
2019 balance: $17,662,850
balance: $64,247,110

Heeding the data

I save all my poker data, and regularly query it looking for strengths and weaknesses. One of my recurring conclusions is that the most important poker decision a player can make is what poker variant to play to begin with. Before you've even been dealt a single hand, this decision can already have helped or hurt your chances for success. There are three main characteristics of a poker variant:

- style (examples: cash game, sit and go, MTT (multi-table tournament))
- flavor (examples: NLHE (no limit hold'em), PLO (pot limit Omaha), 8-game, deuce)
- maximum table size (examples: 6-max, 9-max)

Here's what my poker data tells me I should never play:

- sit and gos
- pot limit Omaha
- 9-max MTT NLHE

I've been well aware of the first two no-nos for a long time, but am only now becoming aware of the third. It's a hard one to realize, since I do very well in closely related variants. For example, I do fabulously well in 9-max MTT-R NLHE, and very well in 6-max MTT NLHE. I'm going to heed the data, and stay away from 9-max MTT NLHE from now on.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    61      94   24    30        0
MTT   8-Game  45000  5000       6   158      63   12     4   269000
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   170      76   21     6   766000

delta: $585,000
MTT NLHE balance: $5,298,668
2019 balance: $18,306,850
balance: $64,891,110

Lord High Everything Else

I achieved another Full Monty last night, on the strength of coming in second in the second tournament I entered. Second places and Full Montys never get old :-) I was triple tabling for a good part of the session; what I like most about that is you almost don't have enough time to make a bad decision :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    47     187   45    73        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   119      66   18     2  1412000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       9    48      97   27    46        0

delta: $1,062,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,932,668
2019 balance: $17,721,850
balance: $64,306,110

Fall-in poxit

As I've said before, when you haven't made the money in a tournament, you really want to avoid falling in. If you do fall in, it's a crap shoot what kind of a hand you'll get. Sometimes you'll get lucky and receive a premium hand, but the odds are against it. Last night, on the final hand of the session, I fell in, and was dealt baby cowboys (pocket jacks). Unfortunately for me, an opponent had been dealt pocket queens, and I hit the rail. That was the first fall-in poxit of my MTT-B NLHE career, but I know it won't be the last.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    11     186   45    75        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     9      97   24    44        0
MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    62     186   45    35   101000

delta: $-249,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-160,720
2019 balance: $16,659,850
balance: $63,244,110

Evermore and ever better, all in vain

When you can't even last until the end of the late registration period in the first tournament you enter, you have almost nowhere to go but up. That's what happened to me last night. I ended up having an evermore and ever better session, but it was all in vain. Although I made the money in the last tournament I entered, and even scored one bounty in it, that wasn't enough to give me a profit on that one tournament, let alone the session. Even though I'm in a slump, I'm having a lot of fun playing the bounty tournaments. The rebuy tournaments? Not so much :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    14      41   10     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       9    32     125   36    82        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    67     118   27    24   158000

delta: $-252,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $38,280
2019 balance: $16,908,850
balance: $63,493,110

Freaky frequencies

Frequencies can be freaky. An obvious way is when they're a magnitude larger than normal. A sneaky way is when they're exactly normal. Last night I had a freaky pocks frequency of the latter variety. In 68 hands, I received pocks 4 times, which is exactly their expected frequency. I have to say, I prefer the other kind of freaky :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    68     181   45    23   110000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      49   12    33        0

delta: $-290,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $40,280
2019 balance: $17,160,850
balance: $63,745,110

yafm

On Saturday night, I achieved yafm - yet another Full Monty. That makes 53 in my career so far, and 17 this calendar year. It's the first one I've ever achieved in an MTT-B NLHE, but won't be the last. I took a big chunk off my blue distance, and hope to do the same tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9   141     171   36     5  1329000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    49      49   12    27        0

delta: $1,269,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $495,580
2019 balance: $17,450,850
balance: $64,035,110