Thursday, September 28, 2017

Mr. 65th percentile

I just took a look at the bar chart of my running average percentile in MTT-R NLHEs, and it's quite consistent, hovering around the 65th. Clearly, running average percentiles are bound to be smoother than other running averages, since the numbers which are averaged are already well-bounded. Of course, if my progress were really as smooth as the running average indicates, I would have lost money hand over fist, since the typical percentile for making the money is around the 75th, and can go as high as the 80th.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      48   12    21        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,422,500
2017 balance: $18,354,150
balance: $29,771,980

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

The perils of flopping a monster

It's always nice to flop a monster. However, doing so has attendant perils. Strangely enough, one of them is improving your hand on the river. Why should that be? For the simple reason that the river card may have improved an opponent's hand as well. That is precisely what happened to me when I hit the felt for the first time in the only tournament I played last night. I flopped a straight, but my hand improved to a flush on the river. Unfortunately, that gave one of the two opponents I went to showdown with a better flush. Ouch! Here are the numbers:

- preflop, I was a 31.5% dog
- after the flop, I was an 83.39% favorite
- after the turn, I was 76.19% favorite

83 and 76 are great percentages when you're heads up; when you're up against two opponents, they're gigantic. What can I say? I got my money in good, and that's what really matters.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      49   12    24        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,572,500
2017 balance: $18,504,150
balance: $29,921,980

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Another quarter million in profit

It's always nice to make a quarter million in profit in a single session :-) Last night, I achieved this for the 61st time in my career. Of those 61, 31 have occurred this year, which I'm calling neostreet's year of the rebuy :-) Rebuy tournaments have been very, very, very good to me.

In other news, I declined to add on in either of the tournaments I played last night, bringing my added on percentage to a new career low of 65.06. Without those declinings, I wouldn't have made the quarter million.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    70      80   18    18   456000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    66      64   15    27        0


delta: $256,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,772,500
2017 balance: $18,704,150
balance: $30,121,980

Monday, September 25, 2017

Less than one bullet

In poker, there are many different ways to lose the same amount of money. Some of them prove you were playing poorly; others don't provide enough data to indicate how well you were playing. Funnily enough, still others actually prove you were playing well :-) Last night, the way I lost the amount which I lost proved that I was playing well. I wagered 8 bullets, which is $400,000, and lost $44,000, which is less than one bullet. I'll take it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    46      84   18    60        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   116      72   15    14   356000


delta: $-44,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,516,500
2017 balance: $18,448,150
balance: $29,865,980

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Poker oxygen

Last night, I made the money in an MTT-R NLHE again. This time, I joined the tournament before any cards had been dealt. That helped a lot, and I'll try to do that again tonight. Why did it help? It gave me more poker oxygen. There are two types of poker oxygen, and both have the ability to keep you alive. They are:

1. oxygen in chips
2. oxygen in time

In last night's case, it was oxygen in time.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   103      84   18    16   432000


delta: $182,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,560,500
2017 balance: $18,492,150
balance: $29,909,980

Friday, September 22, 2017

Tournament ofer

On Wednesday night, I had a tournament ofer - that is, a tournament where I didn't win a single pot. Fortunately, tournament ofers don't happen to me very often; this was just my third MTT-R NLHE ofer in 161 tournaments. Once again, I joined a tournament late in its registration period, which is a pretty dumb thing to do. The reason this time? I'd been playing chess online prior to poker, and it was late enough at night that I couldn't afford to be too choosy.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    23      69   15    39        0


delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,378,500
2017 balance: $18,310,150
balance: $29,727,980

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Over two million in the hole

With last night's loss, my blue distance has once again surpassed the two million play dollar mark. I think of that as being over two million in the hole, even though I have a huge profit this year, since I always want to keep growing my overall balance. The deepest I've ever been in the hole was $3,543,654, almost exactly one year ago on September 22, 2016. By that yardstick, two million isn't so bad.

One pattern I've noticed recently, that I need to address, is that as luck would have it I've been joining MTT-R NLHEs deep into their late registration periods. I need to just say no to joining if there are less than twenty minutes left in the late registration period; we'll see if I can stick to that resolution :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      60   12    40        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,628,500
2017 balance: $18,560,150
balance: $29,977,980

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Shove fest

The one tournament I played last night had a lot of bingo players - i.e., players willing to go all in with practically any two cards. Of the 28 hands I played, at least one player went all in in all but four of them. It was a real shove fest. I consider it a mild achievement that I survived the late registration period without hitting the felt, and even managed to win one pot. Unfortunately for me, I'd joined the tournament a little too late, given the style of play, to be able to last much longer than that.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    28      44    9    23        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,828,500
2017 balance: $18,760,150
balance: $30,177,980

Monday, September 18, 2017

Career low added on percentage

The first 32 rebuy tournaments I played, I added on every single time. In my most recent 32 rebuy tournaments, I've only added on 18 times. My current added on percentage, 65.82, is a career low. There are two big benefits to not adding on:

1. if you don't make the money, you'll have lost one less bullet than you otherwise would have
2. if you do make the money, you'll have made one more bullet in profit than you otherwise would have

To justify adding on, you must have both of the following beliefs:

1. you believe you won't make the money without the additional chips
2. you believe you will make the money with the additional chips

The times when you'll truthfully hold both of these beliefs simultaneously are few and far between; I expect my added on percentage to continue to fall.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   107      60   12    11   382000


delta: $182,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,978,500
2017 balance: $18,910,150
balance: $30,327,980

Friday, September 15, 2017

Big slick goodbye

Last night, in the only MTT-R NLHE I played, I hit the rail with a big slick. That made me curious to find out how often that's happened; the answer is seven times. Big slick goodbyes aren't as brutal as aces outs, but they're not far behind.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      70   15    41        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    58     364   96    72    36300


delta: $-183,700
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,796,500
2017 balance: $18,728,150
balance: $30,145,980

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Longest "never above water" MTT-R NLHE

Back in my cash game days, I often used to look at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the previous night's session when trying to come up with a topic for my blog post. Being stumped for what to write about tonight, I reverted to that device. What jumped out at me immediately was that I was never about water in last night's tournament. That got me to wondering how many times that's happened to me in MTT-R NLHEs, and where last night's tournament stacked up in the futility stakes. Here are the answers:

1. I've had 18 "never above water" MTT-R NLHEs so far
2. last night's tournament wins the futility stakes, since it lasted the longest of the 18

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      76   18    30        0


delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,996,500
2017 balance: $18,911,850
balance: $30,329,680

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

The four bagger barrier

I'm going to break a cardinal poker rule, and talk about a streak while it's still in progress. This foolish behavior will generally stop a streak dead in its tracks, but I'm willing to take that risk. Last night, I made the money in my third MTT-R NLHE tournament in a row. I just ran the numbers, and that ties for my longest MTT-R NLHE money streak; I achieved it twice before, and fell short of extending it both times. I have a feeling the third time's the charm :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    96      64   15    13   353000


delta: $153,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,246,500
2017 balance: $19,161,850
balance: $30,579,680

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

7 bullets

Last night, in the only tournament I played, I fired 7 bullets. Normally, that's a recipe for disaster. However, I felt fully justified in both my double rebuys after hitting the felt. The reason? I was playing well, and had gotten my money in good both times. As luck and skill would have it, I ended up making the final table, guaranteeing myself a hefty payday.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   142      66   15     8   584000


delta: $234,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,093,500
2017 balance: $19,008,850
balance: $30,426,680

Monday, September 11, 2017

Aces out century

Last night, I had my first ever aces out century in an MTT-R NLHE. That is, it was the first MTT-R NLHE where I lasted at least 100 hands but hit the rail with pocket rockets. Aces out is always a brutal way to exit a tournament, and it's even more brutal when you're close to making the final table, as I was. The good news is that I made a healthy profit on the night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    92     124   30    39        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   120      62   15    11   393000


delta: $243,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,859,500
2017 balance: $18,774,850
balance: $30,192,680

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Whiff percentage

In baseball, when you swing at the ball and miss, it's called a whiff. Applying this concept to poker, when you fail to make the money in a tournament, or hit the rail in a cash game, that's a poker whiff. That got me to wondering what my poker whiff percentage is. Drumroll, please ...

In 4,421 whiff opportunities, I've whiffed 2,254 times, for a whiff percentage of 53.25%. The good news I derive from this is that you can whiff over half of the time in poker and still make a killing :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   108     141   36    18   120000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    86      41    9    15        0


delta: $-30,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,566,500
2017 balance: $18,531,850
balance: $29,949,680

Friday, September 8, 2017

The ol' one street delay tactic

On Wednesday night, I fell victim to the ol' one street delay tactic. That's when an opponent makes a very strong hand on the flop or the turn, but doesn't bet it until the turn or the river, respectively. I've used this tactic successfully many times myself, so I can't complain too much when others use it against me. In this case, my opponent made trip nines on the turn, and put me all in on the river. I had two pairs with a good kicker, and felt that was good enough to call with. If my opponent had bet on the turn, I may have sniffed out his trips.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      62   15    40        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,666,500
2017 balance: $18,561,850
balance: $29,979,680

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

My kingdom for an orbit

I'm going to crib from myself again. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say the first time I wrote a post with this title:

Sometimes, you know you're going to make the money in an MTT. Other times, you know you're going to just miss making the money. The closer you get, the more it hurts not to make it. It really hurts to know that it you could just drag your sorry poker carcass around for one more orbit of the table, you'd make it, but there's no way in hell to do it, since you don't have enough money for the blinds. ... My kingdom for an orbit :-)

This happened to me again last night, in two straight tournaments. The second was virtually a carbon copy of the first.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      58   12    19        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      48   12    15        0


delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,766,500
2017 balance: $18,661,850
balance: $30,079,680

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

40 million wagered

Very recently, I surpassed 40 million play dollars wagered this calendar year. I just ran the numbers; if I keep up this pace, I will have wagered over 60 million by year's end. That's a bit ironic, since that was the target I set myself to wager last year, albeit in SNG NLHEs. I fell woefully short of that goal, but don't think I'll fall short of this new one.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17000  3000       9    50      45    7    12        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   123      83   18    13   388000
MTT   NLHE    17000  3000       9    14      45    7    34        0
MTT   NLHE    42500  7500       9    10      18    4    15        0
MTT   NLHE    17000  3000       9    31      18    4     4    30600


delta: $8,600
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,016,500
2017 balance: $18,911,850
balance: $30,329,680

Monday, September 4, 2017

Bubble boy

Last night, I played just one tournament, and was the bubble boy. I've bubbled 8 of the 147 MTT-R NLHEs I've played, which is 5.44% of the time. It's no fun to bubble, but it still signifies that you're playing well. Maybe my ship will come in tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    86      59   12    13        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $17,928,500
2017 balance: $18,903,250
balance: $30,321,080

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Observation windows

It's never a good idea to judge success or failure based on a single observation. However, that's also a very human thing to do. We tend to focus on the most recent data point; however, to get a better picture, you need to incorporate more data points. I've gravitated to looking at the moving sum of 20 consecutive sessions. In my 20 most recent sessions, I've lost $1,489,225. That's pretty bad, but it's still not my worst 20 session stretch. That honor goes to the 20 sessions from April 29, 2016 to May 21, 2016, when I lost $1,597,958.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    12      62   12     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   122     128   36    18   109000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      69   15    41        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    37      32    9     -        0


delta: $-291,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,078,500
2017 balance: $19,053,250
balance: $30,471,080

Friday, September 1, 2017

My old friend 6 max

Last night, for just the third time in the month of August, I played a 6 max tournament. That was after I'd missed the money in two straight MTT-R NLHEs. I'd almost forgotten how much fun 6 maxes are to play! As far as I know, there's no such thing as a 6 max MTT-R on PokerStars. I've been playing a steady diet of MTT-R NLHEs for months, so it's refreshing to change things up now and then. The really rewarding thing about 6 maxes is not the money you can make, but the sense of satisfaction you can get by outlasting a ton of players; the field sizes are much bigger in 6 max than in MTT-Rs. For fun, I'll make sure to play at least one 6 max tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      67   15    28        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    35      56   12    42        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   117     376   96     9   131600


delta: $-388,400
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,278,500
2017 balance: $19,344,250
balance: $30,762,080