Sunday, September 30, 2018

lud

With the realization that my 2018 balance will almost certainly go underwater in the near future, that got me wondering how late in the year my yearly balance has ever been underwater. I've coined a neo neo for that - lud, which stands for last underwater date. Here are my luds to date:

2009 April 16
2010 January 14
2011 January 7
2012 February 28
2015 November 15
2016 December 8
2017 March 26
2018 March 7


Note that I don't have luds for 2013 and 2014 for the simple reason that my yearly balance never went underwater in those years :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      84   18    30        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    96      58   12     8   426000


delta: $-174,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,519,500
2018 balance: $138,000
balance: $45,651,260

Friday, September 28, 2018

15 bullet night

Last night, I fired way too many bullets - 15, to be precise. The culprit was the first tournament I entered, during which I fired 9 bullets. I started the tournament with an immediate rebuy, hit the felt three times in the late registration period, reupping with a double rebuy each time, and added on when the late registration period ended. My 2018 balance is now officially on life support; I don't see how I can keep it from falling into the red. That doesn't mean I don't believe I'll end the year in the black, but it's clear I'm going to have to dip into the red between now and then.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      72   15    38        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      56   12    33        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    81      62   15    14   244000


delta: $-506,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,693,500
2018 balance: $312,000
balance: $45,825,260

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Stopping the bitch

Last night, I finally stopped the bitch - I ended my MTT-R NLHE losing streak. At 11 straight tournaments, it was a beast. I now have two rules I hope to follow:

1. never late register for a tournament
2. never add on

Obeying rule 1 means I'll have to do more waiting than I'm used to, but patience is a virtue :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    25     104   27    73        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   109      61   15    10   405000


delta: $205,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,199,500
2018 balance: $818,000
balance: $46,331,260

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

11th hour late regging considered harmful

Last night, I played 3 MTT-R NLHEs. I late regged the first two very close to the end of their late registration periods. I registered for the third before it began. Although I failed to make the money in any of them, I came closest in the third. Coincidence? I don't think so. There are several problems with 11th hour late regging, some of which I've covered before:

- you have less resources to enable you to get airborne
- you have less runway to get airborne
- you will almost certainly be forced to add on
- you will almost certainly be bullied by the bigger stacks

The late registration period for the tournaments I play is 29 minutes. From now on, I'm going to try to avoid entering tournaments which have less than 20 minutes left in their late registration periods; we'll see if I can stick to this.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      58   12    20        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    19      56   12    24        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    98      52   12    14        0


delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,994,500
2018 balance: $613,000
balance: $46,126,260

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Ace on the river

Last night, I hit the rail in a particularly painful way. I was a 95.45% favorite after the turn, but my opponent hit a two outer to a full house. To add insult to injury, his holding was rockets, and it was an ace on the river which did me in. That got me to wondering how many times I've seen an ace on the river in my MTT-R NLHE career, and whether I have an aggregate profit or loss in this situation. Looking into the archives ... It turns out I've seen an ace on the river 2,140 times, and have an aggregate profit of 288,455 chips for those hands.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      42    9    12        0


delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,394,500
2018 balance: $1,013,000
balance: $46,526,260

Monday, September 24, 2018

Apockalypse now

I first used this blog post title on May 13, 2016. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

There are certain situations which arise at a poker table when everyone who stays in the hand more than willingly puts all their chips into the middle ... I was dealt Qs Qd, an opponent was dealt Qh Qc, and a second opponent was dealt Jc Js. In other words, it was pocks vs. pocks vs. pocks. Apockalypse now!

A similar circumstance arose on Saturday night. I was dealt 8c 8d, an opponent was dealt Qc Qh, and a second opponent was dealt As Ad. The queens went all in preflop, and the rockets and I called. The rockets went all in on the river, with a board of 7h Kc Kh 9d 2s. I called. The only reason all my chips didn't go into the middle is that I had both of my opponents covered. I lost 8,983 chips on the hand, which severely crippled my stack. I hit the rail ten hands later. My blue distance is now in shouting distance of 8 million dollars, and my 2018 balance is approaching life support territory. Am I worried? Not yet!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      94   27    35        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,744,500
2018 balance: $1,363,000
balance: $46,876,260

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Ever less and ever worse

Last night, I had an ever less and ever worse session; each succeeding tournament, I lasted fewer hands than the previous one, and also had a lower percentile. My blue distance ratio increased to 13.9%, which is the highest it's ever been since I started playing MTT-R NLHEs. If it ever reaches 20%, I'll start to worry, but not until then :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    68      94   27    33        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    40      76   18    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    39      83   18    61        0


delta: $-450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,844,500
2018 balance: $1,463,000
balance: $46,976,260

Friday, September 21, 2018

Double guttered

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the one which took me to the rail in the first tournament I entered. Funnily enough, I don't remember my holding, but do remember two key things:

1. I was a big favorite after the turn
2. my opponent hit a double gutter

Let me check the archives for the details ... Here they are:

my holding: As 7d
my opponent's holding: 3d 5h
the flop: Kc 4s Ad
the turn: 7s
after the turn, I was an 81.82% favorite to win
the river: 2s

Terminology: "double gutter" is shorthand for double gutshot straight draw. A gutshot straight draw is four cards to a straight which are not all in a row. My opponent had 8 outs on the turn - four deuces, to hit the A 3 4 5 gutshot gutter, and four sixes, to hit the 3 4 5 7 gutter.

In related news, my blue distance has hit a new all-time high, breaking through the 7 million dollar barrier.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    31      60   12    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      67   15    20        0


delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,294,500
2018 balance: $1,913,000
balance: $47,426,260

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Min win

Last night, I halted my losing session streak at four. However, it wasn't an emphatic winning session by any means; I only made a profit of $10,000. That tied for the least profit of any tournament in my MTT-R NLHE career. I was extremely lucky to make the money. I survived a fall in on hand 89; four hands later, I hit the rail at the same time as a player at another table, and placed ahead of that player simply because I had more chips at the start of the hand (note that on the bubble, hands are dealt out in lockstep at all remaining tables). I'm due for a big win one of these days.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    93      67   15    15   260000


delta: $10,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,544,500
2018 balance: $2,163,000
balance: $47,676,260

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Bulletfest

Last night, for just the fourteenth time in my career, I fired at least nine bullets during a single MTT-R NLHE. Such bulletfests rarely turn out well, and last night's was no exception. I finished just four spots out of the money, but would have needed more than a min cash to make a profit anyway. Here are my holdings the first three times I hit the felt:

4h 4c
9c 9h
Kd As

Not exactly chopped liver. My blue distance seems destined to top 7 million, but as long as my 2018 balance stays in the black, I don't care.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    84      62   15    19        0


delta: $-450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,534,500
2018 balance: $2,153,000
balance: $47,666,260

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Cowboys into the sunset

For what I believe is the first time ever, I'm using the same title for two blog posts in a row. The reason is simple - it fits both sessions perfectly. Once again, I hit the rail when my pocket kings were cracked. This time, I was up against two opponents; one had pocket queens and the other had ace king offsuit. Before the flop, I was a 55.77% favorite, the queens were an 18.97% dog, and the offsuit was a 24.64% dog. As fate would have it, the queens hit a set on the flop, and it held up. That result pushed my blue distance to a new personal worst of $6,418,000. The only positive I can come up with is that my 2018 balance is still in the black, although it won't be for much longer if I can't break out of this slump. I'm not worried, though. Peeved, sure, but not worried :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    27      55   12    34        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $35,984,500
2018 balance: $2,603,000
balance: $48,116,260

Monday, September 17, 2018

Cowboys into the sunset

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the one that took me to the rail in the first tournament I played. I was dealt cowboys (pocket kings) and rode them into the sunset. I was up against an opponent with pocket rockets. I've now ridden cowboys into the sunset 10 times in my MTT-R NLHE career; this was the second time they lost to pocket rockets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    17      72   15    41        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    16      52   12    40        0


In other news, my blue distance has once again topped 6 million.

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,084,500
2018 balance: $2,703,000
balance: $48,216,260

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Wager Day

Wikipedia defines Tax Freedom Day as follows:

Tax Freedom Day is the first day of the year in which a nation as a whole has theoretically earned enough income to pay its taxes.

I'd like to appropriate this idea for poker purposes. Here's my definition of Wager Day:

Wager Day is the first day of the year when the total amount of money you've wagered on poker exceeds the amount you wagered the previous year.

Last year, I wagered $64,650,000. So far this year, I've wagered $63,200,000. If I average $250,000 per session for the next six sessions, Wager Day will arrive on September 21.

Last night, I bubbled the only tournament I played. There was such a low turnout, I made the final table but failed to make the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   102      33    7     8        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,484,500
2018 balance: $3,103,000
balance: $48,616,260


Saturday, September 15, 2018

House money

It's always nice to play with house money :-) That's the situation I was in after the first tournament I played last night. I made enough profit to cover firing four bullets in the second tournament; as it turned out, I only fired two. In a way, you could say this whole year I've been playing with house money, since I made such a killing last year.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    76      80   18    14   395000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    31      89   18    37        0


delta: $145,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,684,500
2018 balance: $3,303,000
balance: $48,816,260

Friday, September 14, 2018

One outed

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the final hand of the first MTT-R NLHE I played, when I got one outed. In other words, I lost to an opponent who hit the one and only card in the deck which could beat my hand. I was a 97.73% favorite to win after the turn, but it wasn't meant to be. One outers really hurt. They leave you stunned and stupefied. You experience difficulty processing what just happened, but the PokerStars software experiences no difficulty whatsoever in escorting you to the rail :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      71   15    30        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    81      48   12     9   324000


delta: $-26,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,539,500
2018 balance: $3,158,000
balance: $48,671,260

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Another half splash

Last night, I had another half splash. That's a neo neo for a session where I lose at least half a million play dollars.  A full splash is a session where I lose at least one million play dollars. I've now had 33 half splashes in my career, and 2 full ones. Another way to categorize last night's session: evermore in vain. That's a session where I last longer in each succeeding tournament, but fail to make the money in any of them.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      90   18    30        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      63   15    27        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      59   12    24        0


delta: $-500,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,565,500
2018 balance: $3,184,000
balance: $48,697,260

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

A nice little run

Last night, I had my fourth straight winning session. It's been a nice little run; I've made over a million in profit in that time. The last time I had four straight winning sessions was around the ides of March. It's harder to have winning tournament sessions than it is to have winning cash game sessions, but what makes it worth it is the outliers; the tournament outliers dwarf the cash game outliers. The last time I played a cash game was on October 18 of last year, and I have no intention of ever playing another :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      74   15    44        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    98      58   12     9   394000


delta: $144,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,065,500
2018 balance: $3,684,000
balance: $49,197,260

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

You were never shovelier

I'm reusing one of my favorite blog post titles again tonight. In the earlier posts, I focused on holdings which are good enough to shove (go all in) with. Tonight I want to focus on holdings which aren't good enough to shove with on their own merits, but are plenty good enough to shove with given the specific circumstances in which they arise. Such a situation occurred in last night's session. On hand 66 of the only MTT-R NLHE I played, I found myself short stacked (2,410 chips) and in the big blind. After the forced bests of ante (150) and big blind (1600), I was down to my last 660 chips. I was dealt 7h Th, and the flop came 9s 7d Kc. Even though I'd only flopped bottom pair, I shoved. Why? For the simple reason that doing so gave me my best chance of making the money. Sometimes your best chance isn't great, but you must take it anyway. If I'd folded here, I would have been forced all in on the next hand by the ante and the small blind (which I call falling in). Bottom pair now is worth way more than who knows what next hand. Also, I was what's known as being "priced in"; most of my chips were already in the middle, and it would be sheer folly to desert them. Luckily for me, my bottom pair held up, and against not one but two opponents. This enabled me to limp to the finish line, making the final pay spot by a whisker. Don't look now, but I'm up to three winning sessions in a row :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      67   15    15   310000


delta: $160,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,921,500
2018 balance: $3,540,000
balance: $49,053,260

Monday, September 10, 2018

The blue distance ratio

My blue distance has recently been setting new all-time highs. I got curious to know if I was also setting new all-time highs in a related poker statistic which I'll call the blue distance ratio. This is the ratio of your blue distance to the all-time high of your overall balance. I was glad to learn I'm not setting new all-time highs in the blue distance ratio. For the record, my current blue distance ratio is .1034 (5,641,000 / 54,534,260).

In other news, I've now had two winning sessions in a row. That's been a rarity lately :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    80      67   15    12   426000


delta: $326,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,761,500
2018 balance: $3,380,000
balance: $48,893,260

Sunday, September 9, 2018

The price of vanity

Taking poker selfies is a form of vanity, and comes with a price. The price for me, last night, was lost profit. On my penultimate hand of the session, I was taking a poker selfie when it was my turn to act, and got sat out by the PokerStars software. My holding at the time was AJo (ace jack offsuit), and it would have won the hand had I been present at the table. That would have given me a great shot at laddering up. There's no telling where I might have finished. I figure I lost out on at least one spot, which would have made me an extra $265,000 in profit. If I never take another poker selfie again, it'll be too soon :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      64   15    26        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   110      48   12     5   739000


delta: $389,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,435,500
2018 balance: $3,054,000
balance: $48,567,260

Saturday, September 8, 2018

Going like sixty

The more blog posts you write, the easier it becomes to quote yourself. Here's what I had to say on June 20, 2016, in a post with the same title as this one:

To make the money in an MTT, you need to outlast roughly 75% of your competitors. Outlasting less than 50% of them would clearly be a failure. However, is there some percentage you could outlast, and still be able to consider it a success of sorts, even though you failed to make the money? I think there is, and I'm pegging it at 60. By this criterion, the first of the two MTT NLHEs I played last night was a success, since I outlasted 61.68% of my opponents :-)

I went like sixty for the duration of last night's session, though I failed to make the money. I have to believe better outcomes are coming my way.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      85   18    29        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      64   15    24        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    68      68   15    18        0


delta: $-450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,046,500
2018 balance: $2,665,000
balance: $48,178,260

Friday, September 7, 2018

1/4 billion wagered

In my October 12, 2015 post, titled "50 million play dollars wagered", here's what I had to say:

If you're old enough (as I am), you'll remember that for many years, McDonald's proudly boasted of how many burgers they'd served in their history. They included the number on their neon signs, and regularly updated it. I forget how big it had gotten by the time they stopped this practice, but it was somewhere in the billions.

This is all by way of trying to extenuate the braggadocio of this post's title :-)  Let's face it, any way you slice it, 50 million is a lot of play dollars to have wagered playing sit and gos, and I'm proud of achieving this milestone.


As of this moment, I've now wagered $228,152,280 playing online poker tournaments, including sit and gos. Friends and neighbors, that's just shy of 1/4 of a billion play dollars. As  you might expect, when I'm reduced to bragging in this shameless way, it means I can't brag about recent results :-)

In other news, my blue distance reached a new all-time high of $5,906,000.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      69   15    40        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,496,500
2018 balance: $3,115,000
balance: $48,628,260

Thursday, September 6, 2018

One hell of a dead cat bounce

When I experimented with day trading five years ago, I came across some interesting terms; one was "dead cat bounce". Here's Investopedia's definition:

A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the downtrend. A dead cat bounce is a small, short-lived recovery in the price of a declining security, such as a stock. Frequently, downtrends are interrupted by brief periods of recovery — or small rallies — where prices temporarily rise. The name "dead cat bounce" is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough.

Last night, my stack took one hell of a dead cat bounce just before I hit the rail in the first tournament I played. On hand 72, I gained 7,206 chips. On hand 73, I lost 6,550 chips. On hand 74, I lost my last 2,858 chips. In happier news, I ended my streak of nine straight profitless tournaments by turning a profit in the second tournament I played.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    18      75   15    41        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      74   15    14   350000

delta: $-50,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,646,500
2018 balance: $3,265,000
balance: $48,778,260

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Dead ducks

"Ducks" is a nickname for a holding of pocket deuces. Last night, I was cruising towards the money, but missed it due to dead ducks. On my final hand of the one tournament I entered, I was dealt ducks, hit a set on the flop, and got all my chips into the middle. I was a 74.44% favorite after the flop, and an 81.82% favorite after the turn; however, my opponent was on a flush draw, and hit it on the river. Ouch! I'm happy with the way I played the hand, just not with the outcome :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    56      65   15    23        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,696,500
2018 balance: $3,315,000
balance: $48,828,260

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

When I'm 64

My average percentile for MTT-R NLHEs is currently 64.09. It's hovered there for a long time. It's a good place to be. On Saturday night, my percentile was 69.23. That wasn't good enough to make the money, but it was good enough for me to know I was playing well.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      65   15    20        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $36,846,500
2018 balance: $3,465,000
balance: $48,978,260