Friday, March 31, 2017

Terminated with extreme prejudice

It's never a whole lot of fun to hit the rail in a tournament. However, some exits are more palatable than others. When you get terminated with extreme prejudice, it's actually easier to take than when you lose to a two outer :-) What I mean by being terminated with extreme prejudice is when your losing hand is several hand types inferior to the winning hand. That's what happened to me in the final tournament I played last night. My losing hand was a two pair, and the winning hand was a full house - fully four hand types better than mine. Whatcha gonna do? :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    84     158   42    46        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    17     411   96     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     7      61   18     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    75     433  114    59    47700


delta: $-92,300
MTT NLHE balance: $2,583,148
2017 balance: $505,125
balance: $11,922,955

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Ever less ofer

It's always a foolish thing to draw attention to a hot streak; invariably, that causes it to end, and stat :-) Even though I know it's foolish, I can't always refrain from doing it, as witness my last post. I'm not surprised that the result was an ofer. Not only an ofer, but an ever less one at that. Ouch!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    61     147   36    40        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    47     440  114   183        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    11      80   21     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     8     253   72     -        0


delta: $-140,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,675,448
2017 balance: $597,425
balance: $12,015,255

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Top of the world

Until last night, I'd only had one first place finish in an MTT. Now I have two :-) This was my first in NLHE; the other was in 8-game. As you might imagine, it felt great! I took no less than fifteen poker "selfies" on my way to the victory. The huge first place prize of $721,000 enabled me to have my second best session ever, delta-wise. I feel like I'm running hot :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   224     142   36     1   721000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    72     413   96    98        0


delta: $651,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,815,448
2017 balance: $737,425
balance: $12,155,255

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Double the fun

If it's fun to make the money in an MTT (and it is), it's double the fun to make the money in two MTTs at the same time :-) That's what I achieved last night. I really thought I'd get under the lights in the first MTT, but I missed it by three spots. With the two good results, my 2017 balance returned to the black.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   142     177   48     9   207000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    78     457  114    78    39100


delta: $176,100
MTT NLHE balance: $2,164,448
2017 balance: $86,425
balance: $11,504,255

Monday, March 27, 2017

Evermore session

I had an evermore session last night, as I lasted longer in each succeeding tournament than I had in the prior one. It wasn't an ever better session, though, as I failed to make it out of the late registration period in the first two tournaments. When that happens, you can't have an official place, since not all the entrants have registered yet. The only way to have an ever better session is to have official places in every tournament you play, so you can compare them.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    29     120   30     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    46      90   21     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   130     130   36    16   111000


delta: $-39,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,988,348
2017 balance: $-89,675
balance: $11,328,155

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Many hands make light work

One of the adages I remember from my childhood is "Many hands make light work". I learned it from my mother; she sometimes said it when she wanted us kids to help out with some household chore. It's certainly a true statement. Perhaps the most famous cinematic illustration of this is the wonderful scene in "The Big Chill" when all the reunited college friends are cleaning up after a big meal, and dancing while doing so :-)

In poker, this adage still holds. The more hands you play in a tournament, the lighter your work load becomes; at the end, it's all play, and all gravy - you've made the money, and you're just waiting to see how big your payout will be.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    91     122   30    25    82000 


delta: $32,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,027,348
2017 balance: $-50,675
balance: $11,367,155

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Stone soup

When I was a kid, I remember listening to a wonderful record of stories read by Danny Kaye, the great actor and comedian. One of the stories was "Stone Soup". The protagonist of the story, a poor itinerant beggar, convinces the townspeople of one of the towns he's passing through to feed him a meal for free, though they don't realize that this is what they're doing. The townspeople supply all the ingredients for the meal - but one. That one is the stone which will magically make the soup :-)

Playing an MTT is a lot like trying to make stone soup; you need a lot of imagination, a lot of belief, a lot of pluck, and not a small amount of luck. Last night, I made stone soup for the second tournament in row. It felt like a magic trick :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   136     536  132    19    82500


delta: $62,500
MTT NLHE balance: $1,995,348
2017 balance: $-82,675
balance: $11,335,155

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Apockalypse Now

Last night, in the last tournament I played, I finally made it back under the lights again. That's always a wonderful feeling! Three hands stand out in my memory. In two of them, I was dealt pocket sevens; in the third, I was dealt pocket eights. In each case, the hand held up, and my stack received a much needed chip infusion. Since pocket pairs are colloquially called pocks, I'm going to nickname that particular tournament "Apockalypse Now" :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    46     154   42    86        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    38     473  114   287        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    31      58   15     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   169     390   96     4   262700


delta: $122,700
MTT NLHE balance: $1,932,848
2017 balance: $-145,175
balance: $11,272,655

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Phantom bubble

As I've had occasion to mention before, memory is a funny thing. Things you could swear happened to you at the poker table must survive the cold hard light of truth - in other words, the hand histories. Last night, after playing my final tournament of the night, I was convinced I'd just been the bubble boy, missing the money by a single place. I thought I'd had to make a really tough decision on my last hand - whether to call all in for a small amount, or fold. Clearly, I called; if I'd folded, it wouldn't have been my last hand :-) Instead of being a single place out of the money, I was actually eleven places out. Miles away.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    50     511  132   130    27700
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    52     177   48    44    71000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    39     494  132   251        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    41     111   30    41        0


delta: $-41,300
MTT NLHE balance: $1,810,148
2017 balance: $-267,875
balance: $11,149,955

Monday, March 20, 2017

Pan fail

With last night's loss, I think I've achieved another personal first. I'm currently in the red for the year in every style and flavor combination I've played. Call it a pan fail :-) I'm reasonably sure this has never happened to me before, at least not if I filter to three combinations or more played, and 5,000 hands or more played.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    34     156   42    81        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    62     111   30     -        0
MTT   NLHE    44000  6000       9    16     217   45   105        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,851,448
2017 balance: $-226,575
balance: $11,191,255

Sunday, March 19, 2017

Onefer

Clearly, an ofer is a bad thing and an allfer is a good thing. What about the fers in between, though? It all depends on how many tournaments you play. Last night, I had a onefer. I made the money in the first tournament I played. If I'd quit at that point, I would have made a tidy little profit. However, I decided to play a second. I failed to make the money in that one. If I'd quit at that point, I would have had a small loss on the night. However, I decided to play a third. Even though I didn't make the money in that one either, I'm glad I played it, since I set a personal best of sorts. I played the most hands I've ever played in a tournament where I hit the rail before the late registration period ended - 56. A dubious distinction, but still a distinction :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    60     154   42    27    97000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    12     105   30     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    56     107   30     -        0


delta: $-53,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,001,448
2017 balance: $-76,575
balance: $11,341,255

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Allfer

The very best antidote to an ofer is an allfer. An allfer, as you might guess, is a session where you make the money in every tournament you enter. Last night, I had an allfer. Granted, I only played two tournaments, but still :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    64     513  132    67    46600
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    84     522  132    50    52900


delta: $59,500
MTT NLHE balance: $2,054,448
2017 balance: $-23,575
balance: $11,394,255

Friday, March 17, 2017

Ofer

Last night, I struck out. I came up to bat four times and whiffed each time; that's known as an ofer. This got me curious to see how many times I've had an ofer in MTT NLHE. The answer is 54, out of 223 sessions. Not great, but somewhat to be expected. If I cull the ofers where I only played one MTT NLHE in the session, the number is a more respectable 39.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    35     135   36    44        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    48     479  114   195        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    39     115   30    52        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    16     385   96   162        0


delta: $-140,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,994,948
2017 balance: $-83,075
balance: $11,334,755

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Approaching the target average percentile

I decided quite a while ago that the proper way to deal with percentiles is to average them. The question then becomes, what should your target average percentile be? The answer is simple - at a minimum, it should be the average percentile of the first place which is in the money. I decided to see how I'm doing in that regard. The answer is, quite well :-) Of the 417 MTT NLHEs for which I have the requisite data, the average percentile of the first place which is in the money is the 75th. My average percentile for these same 417 tournaments is the 74th. I'm within spitting distance :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    25     524  132   275        0
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    65      77   21    27        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    78     148   36    27    93000


delta: $-77,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,134,948
2017 balance: $56,925
balance: $11,474,755

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Return of the reclusive massive

As you may know, my favorite poker style is MTT, my favorite poker flavor is NLHE, and my favorite size of MTT NLHE is massive :-) My original definition of massive was a tournament where the buy in plus the entry fee was $1,000. In 2015 and 2016, PokerStars ran these tournaments regularly, and they regularly attracted massive fields - often exceeding 1,000 entrants. In September of 2016, these tournaments disappeared from the landscape for some reason. Last night, I played in a tournament with a huge number of entrants, but it had a much larger buy in plus entry fee - $20,000. I've decided to update my definition of massive to be a tournament where the number of entrants is greater than or equal to 1,000. By this new definition, last night I played in my first massive since September 28th of last year. I just ran the numbers, and it turns out I make the money in massives at a really decent clip - 44% of the time. Too bad they don't appear more regularly!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   122    1374  336    37    91300
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    64     429  114    77    36700


delta: $88,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,211,948
2017 balance: $133,925
balance: $11,551,755

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Extrapolated profit

Over the years, I've done a lot of number crunching on my poker data. Strangely enough, however, I've never thought to extrapolate what my profit (or loss) at the end of the year will be, based on my current profit (or loss) and how many days have elapsed so far. Until now, that is :-) It's a simple formula:

extrapolated_year_end_profit = current_profit * (number_of_days_in_the_year / number_of_days_elapsed_so_far)

Plugging in the current values, I get

$45,925 * (365 / 72) = $232,814

Note that although today is the 73rd day of the year, I haven't played poker yet (but will) :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    80     545  132    84    43800
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    40     458  114   135        0


delta: $3,800
MTT NLHE balance: $2,123,948
2017 balance: $45,925
balance: $11,463,755

Monday, March 13, 2017

Back in the black

With last night's winning session, my 2017 balance returned to the black. For only the second time in my career, I entered an MTT with a $100,000 BI+EF. I did this since there were no $20,000 or $50,000 tournaments on offer at the time. I just might try another $100,000 tournament tonight :-) I'm going to skip playing chess again, too.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    32      59   15     -        0
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    88      83   21    11   231000


delta: $81,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,120,148
2017 balance: $42,125
balance: $11,459,955

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Yet another reason to prefer poker to chess

I don't drink any alcohol during the work week; I only drink on Saturdays. Quite often I don't play either chess or poker on Saturday nights; last night, I did both. I got crushed in chess, but made the money in the poker tournament I played. This data provides yet another reason to prefer poker to chess - alcohol, in the amounts I drink it, has no effect on my poker game, but disastrous effects on my chess game. Chess is unforgiving! Maybe I'll skip it tonight and go straight to poker :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    91     126   30    14   136000


delta: $86,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,039,148
2017 balance: $-38,875
balance: $11,378,955

Saturday, March 11, 2017

A simple plan

I'm stealing the title of a 1998 movie for this blog post. As "A Simple Plan" made abundantly clear, nothing is as simple as it seems. It's hard to believe it's been almost 20 years since that movie came out. Here's my "simple plan" for making a profit at MTT NLHE:

Play at least 50 hands per tournament.

I've now played 486 MTT NLHE tournaments. Of those 486, 180 lasted 50 hands or more. Of those 180, I've made the money 162 times (90% of the time). Nothing succeeds like excess :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    51     403   96    48    52800


delta: $32,800
MTT NLHE balance: $1,953,148
2017 balance: $-124,875
balance: $11,292,955

Friday, March 10, 2017

High and dry

I decided to take a look at my 2017 6 max results in isolation, aggregated by poker session date. Three things about the bar chart stood out:

1. early in the year my profit was over $700,000
2. I've fallen significantly from that height, but still have a profit
3. I haven't been underwater in aggregated 6 max yet

It's always a nice feeling to be high and dry, even if you have to ignore some data in order to get there :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    61     387   96    51    44600
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    47     335   84    91        0


delta: $4,600
MTT NLHE balance: $1,920,348
2017 balance: $-157,675
balance: $11,260,155

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Aces out

Last night, for the ninth time in my MTT NLHE career, I hit the rail on a hand where I'd been dealt pocket rockets. I call this situation "aces out". On five of those occasions, including last night, I went all in before the flop. I was up against an opponent with pocket nines, which made me an 80% favorite; however, he flopped a set, and they held up. The good news is, I did nothing wrong, and played well throughout the session. Additional good news: I was able to restrain myself from playing any 9 max :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    35     408   96   199        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    71     355   84    68    37200


delta: $-2,800
MTT NLHE balance: $1,915,748
2017 balance: $-162,275
balance: $11,255,555

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Renewal of a poker vow

If you play poker long enough, you find yourself making poker vows, then breaking them, then making them again, in a seemingly endless cycle. Once again, it's time for me to renew my vow not to play any more 9 max :-) A peek at my career numbers brought this on:

max_players       profit  tourneys     average

          6   $1,566,812       267   $5,868.20
          9     $351,736       214   $1,643.63


I have to stop getting seduced by the huge money up top in the 9 maxes, and just stick to the better profit potential of 6 max. We'll see how long I keep the vow this time :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    38     617  126   218        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    78     354   84    76    30900


delta: $-9,100
MTT NLHE balance: $1,918,548
2017 balance: $-159,475
balance: $11,258,355

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Doppeltourney

Last night, the second MTT I played was virtually a doppeltourney of the first. I made the money both times, and hit nearly the same percentile - 87th in the second MTT, as opposed to 85th in the first. Since both tournaments were 9 maxes, where most of the money is skewed to the final table, I made peanuts, but at least I came out in the black for the session. That halted a streak of eight straight losing sessions. I stopped the bitch :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    65     535  108    80    22900
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    69     418   90    53    24100


delta: $7,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,927,648
2017 balance: $-150,375
balance: $11,267,455

Monday, March 6, 2017

Safety in numbers

I've come to the realization that the best MTTs to play are the ones with the biggest fields. This has several consequences. The first and most obvious one is that the buy in can't be the primary reason for selecting an MTT. Another is that the poker flavor can't be the primary reason, either. In practice, you can make both the buy in and the poker flavor primary selection criteria, as long as you choose the smallest buy in on offer and as long as you choose no limit hold'em. That's similar to Ford's choice of model T colors - you could pick any color you liked as long as it was black :-)

A less obvious consequence of playing the MTTs with the biggest fields is that you should join them as soon as you possibly can. The reason why will become clear once I explain why it's so important to pick the biggest fields. Here's why: the bigger the fields, the more fish (bad players) there are in the pool. If you're not a fish, you're generally going to win chips from those who are. The earlier you join an MTT with a big field, the more chances you give yourself to play against fish; that enables you to build up your stack for later in the tournament, when the fish are all gone.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    31     147   36    52        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    88     551  117    22    41800


delta: $-28,200
MTT NLHE balance: $1,920,648
2017 balance: $-157,375
balance: $11,260,455

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Down with Power Up

I've decided to relegate Power Up to the scap heap of failed poker variants; in other words, I won't be playing it any more. Not only did I never receive any response to the feedback I provided as an alpha tester, PokerStars never fixed the crashes (which proved to be more and more irksome as time went on). Also, I realized there's no profit to be made from any poker variant which only has three players; that just leaves too much room for luck, and not enough for skill. It was fun while it lasted, but as I predicted, it didn't last long.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     2        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    23     148   36     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    15      92   24     -        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    49     437  114   157        0


delta: $-122,500
MTT NLHE balance: $1,948,848
2017 balance: $-129,175
balance: $11,288,655

Friday, March 3, 2017

Loss portfolio

This is at least the third time I've used this blog post title. One of the best reasons to keep good poker records is so that you can build up a really impressive loss portfolio. It may seem odd, but there's a really good reason to have such a portfolio - it can cheer you up when you need it most :-) In the last twenty sessions, I've lost $802,475. That's a sizeable loss. Compared to other stretches of my career, however, how big is it really? I ran the numbers, and this loss was only my 61st worst. That's bound to make anyone feel better :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     2        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     9     339   84     -        0
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    42     129   27    19    56000


delta: $-16,500
MTT NLHE balance: $2,068,848
2017 balance: $-6,675
balance: $11,411,155

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Power down

Last night, no one joined the Power Up table I joined in a reasonable amount of time, so I unregistered and joined an MTT. I'm thinking that perhaps the bloom is off the Power Up rose for a bunch of the other alpha testers. That isn't the case for me yet, but that won't matter if I can't find anyone to play it with me.

In other news, my 2017 balance is precariously near the red. I fully expect to go into the red shortly, but also fully expect to leap out of it with a big cash, one of these days :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    52     265   72    76        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    50     421   90    44    27700


delta: $-12,300
MTT NLHE balance: $2,082,848
2017 balance: $9,825
balance: $11,427,655

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Grasping for positives

Some sessions are harder to write about than others. The really tough ones are the ones where nothing really good happens, and nothing really bad happens either. It's hard not to come up with some variation on "I didn't suck" :-) Last night, I didn't suck, but the only remotely positive thing I can come up with about my play is that I lost less than half the money per hand than I had the session before. Lame, huh?

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

POW   NLHE     2125   375       3     ?       3    1     1     6375
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     7      21    7     -        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    44     568  117   117    18700
MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9    22     108   27     -        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    16     500  108   178        0


delta: $-117,425
MTT NLHE balance: $2,095,148
2017 balance: $22,125
balance: $11,439,955