Permission to splurge

It's the final night of 2021. I'm about to play my last session of the year. If you can't go a little nuts on New Year's Eve, when can you? Accordingly, I'm giving myself permission to splurge tonight. I'm going to play at least one Orient Express, and possibly two or three. That means I could lose up to 3 million play dollars tonight. Even if I do, I will still have made a profit of more than 13 million on the year. I'm playing with house money :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      91   24    10   122000
MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6      54   15    11   164000

delta: $136,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,449,268
2021 balance: $16,627,500
blue distance: $568,200
balance: $94,292,953

Another when

One of the poker questions for which I will never have a permanent answer is the question of when is the best time to join an MTT. Sometimes, I'm convinced that the answer is before the tournament has officially started. At other times, I'm convinced that the answer is as late in the late registration period as you possibly can. At still other times, I'm convinced the answer is that it doesn't matter at all when you join. I can make plausible cases for each of these viewpoints.

This is an excerpt from last Thursday's post. I realize I left out an important when - namely, as near to when half of the late registration period has elapsed as you possibly can. That would have come in mighty handily last night. There are two problems with joining before a tournament has started:

1. there's no dead money in the prize pool

2. you have less of a chance of outlasting the late registration period

There are also two problems with joining as late in the late registration period as you possibly can:

1. the antes and blinds will be bigger, but your starting stack size won't be

2. there will be more big stacks, and every big stack at your table has the potential to bully you off your hands

Last night, I joined before the tournament had started. It would have been more prudent for me to wait a while before joining. The thing is, I don't like having to wait to play, so I typically don't :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      47   12     -        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,313,268
2021 balance: $16,491,500
blue distance: $704,200
balance: $94,156,953

Jilted by an old girlfriend

The hand I have the most intense love/hate relationship with is the stealth two pair. That's when you're dealt a non-pair and then pair both your hole cards on the flop. It's hard not to fall in love with a hand like that, but your heart can easily get broken. When you have a stealth two pair and lose, it feels like being jilted by an old girlfriend. On the final hand of last night's tournament, I got jilted once again. I was dealt Q6o (queen six offsuit), and the flop had a queen and a six; I don't remember what the third card was, only that it was less than a queen and wasn't a six. All my chips went into the middle. When my opponent turned over KQo (king queen offsuit), I knew I was a healthy favorite.  As fate would have it, though, the turn and river were both kings, giving my opponent a boat, and me the boot.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      75   21    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,513,268
2021 balance: $16,691,500
blue distance: $504,200
balance: $94,356,953

New Year's Eve blue

New Year's Eve is three days away. I have four more poker sessions to play this year, including tonight's. I want to end the year in the blue. In the ten New Year's Eves preceding this one on which I played online poker, I was able to achieve New Year's Eve blue in two of them, 2015 and 2017. I didn't play on New Year's Eve in 2010 and 2012. I plan on playing this New Year's Eve.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE     9000   1000       6     259   72   136        0

delta: $-10,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,713,268
2021 balance: $16,891,500
blue distance: $304,200
balance: $94,556,953

A good bad finish

It goes without saying that if you fail to win a single hand in a tournament, you're virtually guaranteed not to make the money. Not winning a single hand certainly qualifies as a bad finish. It can never be considered a good one. However, can it ever be considered a good bad finish? In other words, can you ever finish high enough to consider that you've beaten the odds, even though you failed? I believe the answer to this is yes. Last night, in the first tournament I entered, I didn't win a single hand. Nevertheless, not only did I outlast the late registration period, I ended up in the 44th percentile.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      68   18    38        0
MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      73   21    24        0

delta: $-250,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,723,268
2021 balance: $16,901,500
blue distance: $294,200
balance: $94,566,953

A perfect double-up

I'm always on the lookout for rare events in my poker data. I found another one looking at last night's numbers. For only the fourth time in 1,505 MTT NLHEs, I made a profit exactly equal to the buy in plus the entry free - in other words, a perfect double-up.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6      66   18    10   200000

delta: $100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,973,268
2021 balance: $17,151,500
blue distance: $44,200
balance: $94,816,953

The land of the eights

On Thursday night, I achieved a percentile of 88.888888... In other words, the land of the eights. Fittingly, I finished the tournament in eighth place. I feel confident that's the first time that's ever happened to me :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      72   18     8   563000

delta: $363,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,873,268
2021 balance: $17,051,500
blue distance: $144,200
balance: $94,716,953

An old debate revisited

If I've learned anything about poker, it's that there will always be more to learn. You must be prepared to be a perpetual student. A corollary of this axiom is that you will continually discover that what you thought was true is actually a half-truth at best, and is sometimes downright false. Another corollary is that your poker theories will go in and out of fashion in your own mind. There will be debates you have with yourself that you can never truly resolve. There will be poker questions for which you will never have a permanent answer. Strangely enough, I think this is actually a good thing.

One of the poker questions for which I will never have a permanent answer is the question of when is the best time to join an MTT. Sometimes, I'm convinced that the answer is before the tournament has officially started. At other times, I'm convinced that the answer is as late in the late registration period as you possibly can. At still other times, I'm convinced the answer is that it doesn't matter at all when you join. I can make plausible cases for each of these viewpoints.

Last night, I joined a tournament late in its late registration period. This practically guaranteed that I'd outlast the late registration period, but it didn't guarantee that I'd make the money. However, since the only way to make the money in a tournament is to outlast the late registration period to begin with, it can't be all that bad to increase your chances of doing just that :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6      73   21    20   139000

delta: $39,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,510,268
2021 balance: $16,688,500
blue distance: $507,200
balance: $94,353,953

Flight patterns

I have several metaphors I employ to bring poker tournament play to life. They have one thing in common - they all involve travel. My favorite metaphor is a train ride. In this post, however, I've chosen to return to the metaphor of a hot air balloon ride. Imagine being at the summit of a mountain, in the middle of a vast field. At one edge of the field, the mountain drops precipitously away. Colorful hot air balloons are in the process of being inflated throughout the field. A strong breeze is blowing which will push each balloon over the cliff edge as soon as the balloon becomes airborne. Each balloon will describe a different flight pattern. Some will steadily descend, until they land in the valley far below. Others will oscillate between rising and falling, enabling them to travel further before eventually landing. Others will rise high above the rest, enabling them to travel further still. One balloon will never come down at all.

Last night, my balloon took an early rise, then steadily descended toward the valley. I realized well before landing that there was nothing I could do to stop the descent. When I landed, there were three minutes left in the late registration period. C'est la vie.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6      41   10     -        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,471,268
2021 balance: $16,649,500
blue distance: $546,200
balance: $94,314,953

The land of the 78s

I always enjoy it when one of the poker statistics I calculate ends in a recurring decimal. This usually gives rise to a blog post with a title of the form "The land of the ___s", where the blank is filled in with the recurring decimal. The very first such blog post, appropriately, was titled "The land of the ones".

This is an excerpt from my April 5, 2019 post.  Last night, I made the money with a percentile of 78.787878... In other words, the land of the 78s :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      66   18    14   344000

delta: $144,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,571,268
2021 balance: $16,749,500
blue distance: $446,200
balance: $94,414,953

McMansioned

Last night I played pretty well for the most part, but not quite well enough. One good thing did come out of the session, though; after being burned twice in the same way, I was inspired to come up with a poker neologism describing how. "McMansioned" is born (or perhaps I should say repurposed)! That's what has been done to you when your full house has lost to a better one.

This is an excerpt from my February 18, 2011 post. Last night, I lost about two thirds of my stack on a hand where I got McMansioned. I was dealt pocket sixes, and hit a set on the flop. The river put two kings on the board, giving me a full house, sixes full of kings. Unfortunately, it gave my opponent a better full house, kings full of tens. That's what you call a cold deck.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      61   18     -        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,427,268
2021 balance: $16,605,500
blue distance: $590,200
balance: $94,270,953

Polarized

On Saturday night, I hit the felt when I called a polarizing bet an opponent made on the river. A polarizing bet is one which indicates that the bettor either has nothing, or has the nuts. There's nothing in between. In such cases, you have to rely primarily on your gut to tell you whether to fold or call.

This is an excerpt from my June 9, 2014 post. That was in my cash game days, but the concept applies equally well to MTTs. Last night, on my final hand of the tournament, I got polarized. I'd been dealt A8o (ace eight offsuit), and paired my ace on the flop. An opponent bet big enough to put me all in if I called. My read was that he had a more ragged ace than mine, so I called. As I discovered to my chagrin, he had the least ragged ace you can have - pocket rockets. I hit the rail with 20 minutes left in the late registration period. Ouch!

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000  13000       6      44   12     -        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,477,268
2021 balance: $16,655,500
blue distance: $540,200
balance: $94,320,953

Doppelplace

It's time for another neo neo. A doppelplace is what I call it when you finish in the same place in two consecutive tournaments in the same session. It's quite a rare occurrence. Counting last night's, I've only had five doppelplaces in my MTT NLHE career.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      97   24    45        0
MTT   NLHE     9000   1000       6     245   60    45    19800

delta: $-40,200
MTT NLHE balance: $42,577,268
2021 balance: $16,755,500
blue distance: $440,200
balance: $94,420,953

Sometimes, 2.125 < 2

As a reminder, here are my definitions of the important stations on the poker tournament train line:

Station 1: when you've outlasted the late registration period

Station 2: when you've outlasted at least 50% of the field

Station 2.125: when you've registered an official place which is less than double the number of paid places

Station 2.25:  when you've outlasted at least 60% of the field

Station 2.5:  when you've outlasted at least 70% of the field

Station 3: when you've made the money

Station 4: when you've made the final table

Station 5: when you've won the tournament

Last night, I made it to station 2.125, but didn't make it to station 2. How could that be? It was due to a quirk of the numbers. My official place (40) was less than double the number of paid places (21), but I outlasted less than 50% of the field. This type of occurrence is rare enough that I don't feel the need to change my station definitions.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      74   21    40        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,617,468
2021 balance: $16,795,700
blue distance: $400,000
balance: $94,461,153

Giving to get

The first game I ever loved was chess. I still love it. One of the hardest lessons to learn in chess, and one which I still haven't fully learned, is that many times, you must give in order to get. Indeed, "give to get" is a common chess puzzle hint. Over the last nine years, I've learned that in poker, too, you must give to get. In a poker context, giving to get means that you must have a willingness to take temporary losses when your goal is to achieve long-term gains. This willingness must be unconditional. You must be fully prepared to take these losses, and you must not regret them when they happen.

This is an excerpt from my June 3. 2017 post. Last night, I registered another 0th place in a midnight train. It was the 286th time I've missed the money playing a midnight train. That translates to $57,200,000 in losses. That's the giving end of things. As for the getting end, in the 232 midnight trains where I made the money, my aggregate profit was $92,015,000. Therefore, I've made a net profit of $34,815,000. The lesson? It simply doesn't matter how much you lose, as long as you're getting more than you're giving :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      49   15     -        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,817,468
2021 balance: $16,995,700
blue distance: $200,000
balance: $94,661,153

Gaffer in luck again, and yet no Gaffer

'Gaffer's boat, Gaffer in luck again, and yet no Gaffer!' So spake Riderhood, staring disconsolate.

Charles Dickens: Our Mutual Friend
BOOK THE FIRST: THE CUP AND THE LIP
Chapter 14: The Bird of Prey Brought Down

"Our Mutual Friend" is my favorite Dickens novel. Gaffer Hexam is a character who makes his living by finding things lost in the river Thames. Riderhood is his much less successful rival, and is completely bankrupt morally, the antithesis of Gaffer. Gaffer in luck again means that Gaffer has once again found something that was lost in the river. However, Gaffer is lost himself at this juncture of the novel.

Last night, at the end of the session, I was like Gaffer. I was in luck again, since I made a deep run in the tournament. It was deep enough that it should have put me at the final table, aka under the lights, but it did not. So, again like Gaffer, I was missing. What had happened? It's easy enough to explain. When there were only seven players left, of which I was one, there were two active tables remaining, one with four players and the other with three. I hit the rail at my table at the same time one of the players at the other table hit the rail. So I never got under the lights; the final table started with just five players instead of six. Luckily for me, for some reason I finished in sixth, ahead of that other player; I still don't know what criteria PokerStars uses to determine the order in cases like that. Essentially by a fluke, I made an additional $94,000 in profit. Ka-ching :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      60   15     6   699000

delta: $499,000
MTT NLHE balance: $43,017,468
2021 balance: $17,195,700
blue distance: $0
balance: $94,861,153

Cruel and unusual treatment

Over the years, I've picked up a lot of great phrases from people I admire. One such is "cruel and unusual treatment", which I picked up from my father. Last night, the poker gods subjected me to cruel and unusual treatment on hand 35.

This is an excerpt from my September 23, 2015 post. Last night, the poker gods subjected me to cruel and unusual treatment on my final hand. I was short-stacked, so when I looked down and saw pocket tens looking back up at me, I knew all my chips were going into the middle. I was up against an opponent who'd been dealt A2o (ace deuce offsuit). He paired his ace on the flop, hit trips on the turn, and rivered a full house, aces full of deuces. Complete overkill! I was garroted on the flop, shot on the turn, and given cement overshoes and dropped overboard on the river. Cruel and unusual treatment, indeed.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      71   18    25        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,518,468
2021 balance: $16,696,700
blue distance: $250,000
balance: $94,362,153

Ninth player out

I may have set a high water mark for futility last night. I was the ninth player to hit the rail, and there were fourteen minutes left in the late registration period when this occurred. I'm not sure if I've ever fared worse in an MTT NLHE. The silver lining? It was a toy train :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      29    8     -        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,718,468
2021 balance: $16,896,700
blue distance: $50,000
balance: $94,562,153

Two-outed

As is often the case, the hand I remember most strongly from last night's session was the final one. I'd made the money, and was looking to ladder up. I don't remember exactly what hand I had, but do remember the hand that beat me - trip sevens. I had a big pair, and was a heavy favorite to win the hand after the turn. Only a seven could beat me, and there were only two left in the deck. However, one of them materialized on the river, and I was out in a New York minute.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      74   21    19   283000

delta: $83,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,768,468
2021 balance: $16,946,700
blue distance: $0
balance: $94,612,153

Three usual suspects

Last night, I noticed early on that there were two usual suspects playing in the tournament I'd joined. That made three of us, since I'm always a usual suspect :-) I kept track of them all night, hoping to last longer than both. It was amusing to see how often we traded positions. I often think of a poker tournament as a big old washing machine equipped with an agitator, bringing different players temporarily up to the top, then shoving them back down towards the bottom of the pile again. You have to be prepared for the turbulence. It's nothing to take personally; the constant reshuffling of the players is the nature of the tournament beast.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      62   18    10   377000

delta: $177,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,685,468
2021 balance: $16,863,700
blue distance: $0
balance: $94,529,153

Black and blue

When you make the money in a tournament, you generally finish your session in the black. When you not only do that, but take your overall balance to a new all-time high, you finish your session in the blue. All blue sessions are by definition black, but not all black sessions are blue. Last night, on the strength of  a fourth place finish, I had a black and blue session.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      68   18     4   993000

delta: $793,000
MTT NLHE balance: $42,508,468
2021 balance: $16,686,700
blue distance: $0
balance: $94,352,153

Autonomic poker

I've played poker long enough for it to have become second nature; I can make poker decisions without consciously thinking about what I need to do. This comes in handy when I get a phone call in the middle of a session, as I did last night. I got a conference call from two friends who'd watched me play online chess earlier in the night, and wanted to chide me for settling for a draw in my final game, which they thought I should easily have won. I talked to them and played poker at the same time. I didn't make the money, but that wasn't due to divided attention. Autonomic poker is actually quite a lot of fun.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE     9000   1000       6     226   60    86        0

delta: $-10,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,715,468
2021 balance: $15,893,700
blue distance: $445,800
balance: $93,559,153

All your chips are belong to me

In a normal MTT, there are no bounties, so there's no direct financial benefit to knocking an opponent out of the tournament. There is a psychological benefit, however; it feels really good to knock someone out :-) I knocked an opponent out fairly early on in last night's tournament, and it set me up in good shape to make the money. I barely got there, but I got there.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      60   15    14   313000

delta: $113,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,725,468
2021 balance: $15,903,700
blue distance: $435,800
balance: $93,569,153

A nice clip

This year, I'm averaging over $61,000 in profit per session. Using that as a yardstick, 2021 is the second best year of my career. The top year was 2017, when I averaged over $112,000 in profit per session. Of course, that was also the year I first discovered MTT-R NLHEs.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE     9000   1000       6     238   60    46    19200

delta: $9,200
MTT NLHE balance: $41,612,468
2021 balance: $15,790,700
blue distance: $548,800
balance: $93,456,153

Good news and bad news

I have good news and bad news to report about last night's session. The bad news: I failed to register an official place. The good news: I only lost $50,000. Actually, the good news is only good in the context of the bad news having happened, so it's not really good news per se. To be strictly truthful, I should have titled this post "Bad news and slightly-less-bad news" :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000   5000       6      85   21     -        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,603,268
2021 balance: $15,781,500
blue distance: $558,000
balance: $93,446,953

The lesser of two evils

When you're short-stacked in a tournament, your options are limited. You can't fold every hand, or else you'll be blinded off. However, if you pay to see the flop, and whiff, you only have two realistic options, and neither one is very palatable.

Option 1: go all in.

Option 2: fold. 

Downside of option 1: you put your tournament life at risk.

Upside of option 1: if you win the hand, you double up.

Downside of option 2: your stack shrinks, putting your future tournament life at risk.

Upside of option 2: you live to play at least one more hand.

You must choose which is the lesser of two evils. Which option you choose will be influenced by factors like the precise size of your stack and how near the money bubble is to bursting. Last night, on my final hand of the tournament, I chose option 1.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      66   18    31        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,653,268
2021 balance: $15,831,500
blue distance: $508,000
balance: $93,496,953

The imp strikes again

Last Sunday, I played an MTT-B NLHE tournament despite the fact that it's my worst poker variant. I attributed my unwise decision to play this tournament to the imp of the perverse. Last night, the imp struck again. When I hit the rail, there were 20 minutes left in the late registration period. When will I ever learn?

style flavor buy_in entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9     106   27     -        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $-4,483,820
2021 balance: $16,031,500
blue distance: $308,000
balance: $93,696,953

Disappearing into the year

The deeper you play into a poker year, the more the accumulated data of the year outweighs whatever your current results are. In effect, you disappear into the year, and it takes a search party to find you. 

This is an excerpt from my November 2, 2019 post; I've reused it twice before this. If the shoe fits, wear it. I actually quite like disappearing into a year, when I've already made a decent profit on it. If I'm in the red near the end of a year, however, I try very hard to emerge from hiding :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      54   15    10   328000

delta: $128,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,853,268
2021 balance: $16,131,500
blue distance: $208,000
balance: $93,796,953

The streak is dead. Long live the streak!

When I first heard the phase "The king is dead. Long live the king!" it made no sense to me. How can the king live a single day, let alone a long time, when he's dead? Of course, the answer is that the phrase refers to two different kings. So you'll understand that when I say "The streak is dead. Long live the streak!" I'm referring to two different streaks.

This is an excerpt from my March 31, 2012 post. The streak that died last night was of MTT NLHE tournaments where I registered an official place; it ended at 17. When I hit the rail, fully 18 minutes remained in the late registration period. To add insult to injury, my holding on the last hand was a premium one - AKs (ace king suited). Ouch!

 style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      40   10     -        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,725,268
2021 balance: $16,003,500
blue distance: $336,000
balance: $93,668,953

Two quad night

The title of this post should actually be "Two quads night", but I wanted it to sound more like "Three Dog Night", the name of a rock band from the 70s, so I de-pluralized it :-)

This is an excerpt from my March 21, 2018 post. Last night, I got quads twice again. Getting quads at all is a rare enough event in itself; getting them twice in one tournament is an embarrassment of riches. The first was quad kings, when I had one king in my hand; the second was quad fives, when I had pocket fives. I got paid off on the river both times.

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      66   18     7   597000

delta: $397,000
MTT NLHE balance: $41,925,268
2021 balance: $16,203,500
blue distance: $136,000
balance: $93,868,953