Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Historic drubbing

Last night, something highly unusual happened - I hit the felt five times. That's never happened to me before. In part that's because I'm a good player and in part that's because when I'm playing badly, I usually have the good sense to quit when I hit the felt for a third time. Why didn't I quit this time? There are several reasons:

1. the maximum starting stake at the table was small ($2K)

2. since I'm new to deuce, I decided to treat hitting the felt as a necessary learning experience

3. I'd made the original mistake of joining a table which had some really big stacks, who were playing the bully effectively

4. I compounded this mistake by reupping at the same table every time, instead of joining a different table with players with smaller stacks

My theory that deuce is a back-loaded betting game is officially debunked. Tonight, I need to be much more choosy about which hands I decide to play. I think a good rule of thumb for playing deuce to the seven is to treat it as if "deuce to the eight" is your minimum requirement - that is, avoid going to showdown with hands where your high card is higher than an eight.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 44 hands
Pots won if drawing - 6 of 30 (20%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 16 (31%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-10,000
balance: $2,010,147

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Stairs

The bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session resembles stairs climbing to the right. I won three big pots, evenly spaced; on the other hands, I either won or lost negligible amounts. I've never had a bar chart quite like that before. It bodes well for my deuce career; it indicates that deuce betting is back-loaded, which benefits players like me who are better "after the flop". Of course, there's no flop in deuce, but the concept still applies; "after the flop" players are those who play better the more information they have, whatever the delivery mechanism of that information is.

After winning the third big pot, I got a bonus from the poker gods - an unmistakable signal to end my night, in the form of an unplayable hand. I was dealt Kh Jc Qc Jh 6c, which is a very decent 5 card draw hand but a horrible deuce hand.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 17 hands
Pots won if drawing - 5 of 8 (62%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 5 (80%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $5,650
balance: $2,020,147

Monday, August 29, 2011

Deuce had me at hello

On Saturday night, I played my first session of deuce, and it had me at hello. I won the second hand I played. The game just felt very familiar for some reason. The only blemish was a rookie mistake I made on hand 11, which took me to the felt. I saw that my high card was an eight, saw that I had no pairs, and went all in, believing I had a very strong hand. What I failed to notice was that what I had was an eight high straight, which is death (of course) in a lowball poker variant. To add insult to injury, I only used my first draw, standing pat on the second and third. Hitting the felt didn't faze me a bit, though; I just mentally chuckled at my stupidity, reupped in place for another $2K, and kept playing. I did very well from then on, and made a nice profit on the night.

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 76 hands
Pots won if drawing - 15 of 29 (51%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 12 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $865
balance: $2,014,497

Saturday, August 27, 2011

The root of all poker

Last night, I fully intended to play my first session of deuce to the seven triple draw. The thing was, I'd been checking out various flavors of poker on the PokerStars site during the day, and forgot that the last one I'd looked at was 5 card draw. Like all good software, the PokerStars client returns you to where you were before when you reload it; consequently, I was in the 5 card draw section of the site instead of the deuce to the seven triple draw section. Being so eager to begin playing, I failed to notice this, and blithely joined a table and started playing. I soon realized my mistake, but decided to go with it. Possessing no actual facts to back me up on this, it's my contention that five card draw is the granddaddy of them all - the original version of poker from which all the variants spring. The root of all poker, if you will. One could do a lot worse than brush up one's skills in the root of all poker; it's experience that certainly won't go to waste.

I'd joined a limit table. As I've mentioned before, in limit poker, the maximum starting stack size is not terribly important; a big stack can't bully smaller stacks in the same way it can in pot limit or no limit. For this reason, the PokerStars software sets an arbitrarily high maximum starting stack size for limit games. At the table I'd joined, the maximum starting stack size was a cool million play dollars. I set my initial stack size to a reasonable size for a $5/$10 table - 200 times the big blind, or $2,000.

I rediscovered what I'd found out before - in limit games, it's hard to win a lot of money and also hard to lose a lot of money (provided you play with a modicum of skill). Over the course of a very long session, my stack hit a maximum of $2,270 about a sixth of the way through, almost equaled that again about halfway through, then went on a slow and steady decline down to $1,500. I called it a night at that point. I found it very relaxing to play 5 card draw - since the maximum number of players at a table is six, the pace of play is much faster than at 9 max tables. Limit 5 card draw is a grinder's delight; however, you'd have to grind an incredibly long time to amass a million play dollars. One thing I realize about myself after playing poker almost 3 years is that I'm not a limit player; I'm a pot limit player and a no limit player. Limit poker has limited thrills; pot limit and no limit have unlimited thrills. I'm a thrill seeker at heart.

During current 5-Card Draw session you were dealt 200 hands
Pots won if drawing - 29 of 136 (21%)
Pots won at showdown - 25 of 57 (43%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-500
balance: $2,013,632

Friday, August 26, 2011

Say it with rockets

Last night, I hit the $2 million play money milestone - and did it with rockets. Interestingly, I didn't win the main pot on the hand, but did win two very lucrative side pots. It was very fortunate for me that the opponent who won the main pot was short stacked at the start of the hand, and that two other opponents were willing to gamble in a big way.

The title of this post is a snowclone; the original phrase, of course, is "say it with flowers". There's a wonderful publishing house named "Hard Case Crime" which publishes new noir crime novels and republishes old ones which have been long out of print; at some point, I intend to read the Hard Case Crime title "Say It With Bullets", which was out of print for 50 years.

I hit the $1 million milestone on August 24th, 2010, almost exactly a year ago. My next goal is to hit the $3 million milestone within the next calendar year. As I mentioned before, I'm now going to try my hand at deuce to the seven triple draw. Poker players live and die by hunches, and I've got a hunch I'm going to be very good at deuce.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 19 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 3 times while in big blind (100%)
- 2 out of 3 times while in small blind (66%)
- 6 out of 13 times in other positions (46%)
- a total of 11 out of 19 (57%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $45,000
balance: $2,014,132

Thursday, August 25, 2011

The lastmin ratio

Tuesday night, I hit the felt quickly at the first table I joined, after only 16 hands. The table had shown a lot of willingness to gamble, so I decided to reup in place for the max. My newly replenished stack tumbled quickly to $20K, then kept falling, albeit at a slower pace, to $2K. This was obviously well below the Lazarus line, but I got the strangest feeling at that point. I felt that if I could just avoid hitting the felt, my fortunes would turn around, and I'd end up winning some big hands and come out on top for the night. Of course, your options are severely limited when your stack is only $2K; I needed some luck to avoid the felt. I got it on hand 59, when I was dealt a big slick, ended up going all in, and won a pot worth $9,900 with two pair, sevens and deuces. That gave me just the breathing room I needed. The rest of the session saw my stack trend upwards, culminating in a hand where I won a monster pot worth $141,800 with two pair, aces and tens. Afterwards, I checked the records and found it was the second biggest won pot of my poker career.

The lowest my stack descended after I reupped was to $1,900. When I quit the table, my stack was at $153,600. The bar chart of my stack size makes a remarkable picture. It inspired me to come up with a new poker statistic - what I call the lastmin ratio. The lastmin ratio is the ratio of the amount of your stack when you quit (or last, for short) to the amount of your stack at its lowest point (i.e. minimum, or min). My lastmin ratio last night was an astonishing 80.84! For comparison's sake, the highest lastmin ratio I'd achieved prior to last night was 28.68. Last night's recovery was truly Lazarus-like.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 130 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 15 times while in big blind (33%)
- 7 out of 17 times while in small blind (41%)
- 51 out of 98 times in other positions (52%)
- a total of 63 out of 130 (48%)
Pots won at showdown - 9 of 12 (75%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $73,600
balance: $1,969,132

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Kings beat donks

Last Friday night's session was short and sweet. On the fifth hand, I was dealt a pair of kings, and a donk with an ace two offsuit went all in. I called, then another donk who had a king six suited called. My two pair of kings and threes won a pot worth $130,600. Of course, if I'd lost, I would have been the donk :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 6 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
- 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
- 2 out of 4 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 4 out of 6 (66%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $91,900
balance: $1,895,532

Friday, August 19, 2011

Lucrative calling

Last night, I only played 20 hands. I only won three pots, but that's all I needed to hit my goal of winning half my starting stack. The biggest pot I won was the last of the three, where my ace high flush won $39,000. Interestingly, I never bet that hand; I only called it down. I'd made my flush on the turn, and had decided to make a big move on the river. However, the river card put a full house possibility on the board, and I didn't want to bet and risk my opponent going all in (my opponent had position on me). I checked, he bet $4,600, and I just called. That hand proves that calling can be a lucrative option!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 20 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
- 2 out of 2 times while in small blind (100%)
- 11 out of 16 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 15 out of 20 (75%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $19,700
balance: $1,803,632

Thursday, August 18, 2011

No limit archetype

Friends and neighbors, I've found the archetype for how to play a no limit session. Actually, to be more accurate, the archetype found me; my last four sessions are alike enough to be quadruplets, and I officially endorse the style of play I employed in them. Here are the particulars:

- fold early and often.

- never bet on a draw; either check (if no one has bet), call (if the odds are right), or fold.

- never call if calling will put you all in. Following this dictum will keep you out of a world of trouble and hurt.

- never go all in unless you're severely short-stacked and pot-committed.

- quit the instant you've won 50% or more of your starting stack.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 64 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 14 times while in big blind (85%)
- 11 out of 14 times while in small blind (78%)
- 28 out of 36 times in other positions (77%)
- a total of 51 out of 64 (79%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 17 (76%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $19,650
balance: $1,783,932

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Maoiee wowie

Last night, I met a player I'll call Maoiee. Strictly speaking, a more accurate moniker would be M.A.O.I.E.E. - short for the Most Aggressive Opponent I've Ever Encountered. All I can say is, wowie! I saw Maoiee play 9 hands. On the first hand, he missed going all in by a mere $1,400. On four of the others, he went all in. Here are the chip amounts of his stack at the start of each hand:

$82,000
$42,000
$54,700
$79,700
$142,400
$240,300
$220,300
$218,300
$137,400

He hit the felt on the ninth hand and left the table. I've never seen such reckless play before. Maoiee lost almost a quarter of a million play dollars in a mere four hands. Unbelievable! I'm sure the loss he took on his last hand is the biggest one hand loss I've ever seen a player take.

Needless to say, I folded early and often during his brief reign. Everyone collectively breathed a sigh of relief when he flamed out; betting returned to more normal levels right away. Playing in such a reckless style as Maoiee's is foolhardy. You're guaranteed to hit the felt; it's not a question of if but when. I for one don't enjoy playing with such players, and I bet most poker players feel the same.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 22 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 3 times while in big blind (66%)
- 2 out of 3 times while in small blind (66%)
- 5 out of 16 times in other positions (31%)
- a total of 9 out of 22 (40%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 5 (40%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $19,300
balance: $1,764,282

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Checked river showdowns

Last night's session was almost a doppelsession of Sunday's. My showdown percentage wasn't as good, though. In the interest of padding my stats, I find myself inspired to create a category of showdown which can be ignored :-) I think checked river showdowns - that is, showdowns which are reached when every player who's still in a hand checks on the river - shouldn't be included in one's showdown percentage. Here's my reasoning: since it costs you no additional chips to reach a checked river showdown, it would be foolish to fold, since there's always a chance your hand will win or split the pot. There are really only two reasons to fold in such a situation:

1. you have a high degree of certainty that your hand will be beaten, and you don't want to let your opponents know what your hole cards were

2. you have a high degree of certainty that your hand will be beaten, and you don't want to mess up your showdown percentage

Creating the category of checked river showdowns, and not counting them in your showdown percentage, eliminates the second reason.

I lost 3 showdowns last night, but 2 of them were checked river showdowns, so I really only lost 1 :-) That bumps up my showdown percentage from a so-so 66% to a scintillating 86%!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 36 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 5 times while in big blind (100%)
- 4 out of 6 times while in small blind (66%)
- 21 out of 25 times in other positions (84%)
- a total of 30 out of 36 (83%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 9 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $23,450
balance: $1,744,982

Monday, August 15, 2011

The zen of going to showdown

Going to showdown in poker is a many-faceted, complicated thing. On the one hand, you can't win any money at all without being willing to go to showdown. On the other, the vast majority of the money you'll ever lose will be lost because you decided to go to showdown, and got beaten. So you should definitely go to showdown, and you should also definitely not go to showdown!

One thing that's become crystal clear to me playing both pot limit hold'em and no limit hold'em is that you should go to showdown much more rarely in no limit than in pot limit. One really good way to make sure you don't go to showdown is to avoid paying to see the flop :-) So a corollary to the rule I just stated is that you should pay to see the flop much more rarely in no limit than in pot limit.

A good way to increase your chances of winning showdowns is to avoid going to showdown without a very strong hand. That means you should be folding often. You should be folding pre-flop, on the flop, on the turn, and on the river. You should virtually be a folding machine! If you can just have the patience to fold all your suboptimal hands, you're liable to win a lot of money from the players who don't have such patience.

The gold standard of a well-played session is to have a showdown percentage of 100. I've achieved this several times over the course of my career, and did again last night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 40 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
- 1 out of 5 times while in small blind (20%)
- 17 out of 30 times in other positions (56%)
- a total of 22 out of 40 (55%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $19,720
balance: $1,721,532


Sunday, August 14, 2011

Outkicked

Last night, as promised, I switched to no limit. I allowed myself to see far fewer flops than in pot limit, in respect for the difference in betting format. My stack went up to about $53K early in the session, then steadily descended to about $10K. I had a nice double up at that point, but disaster struck shortly afterward. I was dealt a king jack offsuit, and hit trip kings on the flop. I held out until the river to bet them, then went all in. I lost to a player who'd been dealt king queen offsuit; my jack kicker was outkicked by his queen kicker. I don't feel bad about it, though; I'm sure I made the correct play. A jack is an excellent kicker. If you start worrying about jacks getting outkicked you'll never get anywhere. I really enjoyed the refreshing feeling of no limit after an extended period of playing pot limit, and will keep playing no limit until further notice :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 69 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 8 times while in big blind (37%)
- 3 out of 8 times while in small blind (37%)
- 26 out of 53 times in other positions (49%)
- a total of 32 out of 69 (46%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 7 (28%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-40,000
balance: $1,701,812


Saturday, August 13, 2011

Three pivotal hands

Last night's session included three pivotal hands. If two of them had gone my way, the session would have been salvaged. As it happened though, none of them went my way, and I was out after the third strike.

Pivotal hand #1: I was dealt ace king suited, got into a short raising war preflop with one other player, and ended up calling his second reraise for an expenditure of $11,100 preflop. This left the opponent with only $900 in chips, he went all in on the flop, and I called. My ace high lost to his pair of kings (which were his hole cards). Loss on the hand: $12,000.

Pivotal hand #2: I was dealt pocket rockets, and got into a raising war with one other player at the turn, when the board was Kc Th Tc Ts. The other player ended up going all in, and I called. My full house of tens full of aces lost to his four of a kind, tens. Loss on the hand: $8,200.

Pivotal hand #3: this was my final hand of the night. I was dealt a pair of queens, got into a short raising war preflop with one other player, and ended up going all in calling his second reraise for a total expenditure of $8,642. My two pair of queens and eights lost to the ace high flush which he made on the river.

To try to get a jump-start out of my slump, I'm going to play no limit hold'em tonight.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 116 hands and saw flop:
- 18 out of 18 times while in big blind (100%)
- 17 out of 20 times while in small blind (85%)
- 64 out of 78 times in other positions (82%)
- a total of 99 out of 116 (85%)
Pots won at showdown - 12 of 24 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-40,000
balance: $1,741,812

Friday, August 12, 2011

Stubbornness

Stubbornness in poker is a double-edged sword. If you don't have enough, opponents will scare you off hands too easily. If you have too much, you'll end up losing massive amounts of chips. Last night, I had too much. The thing was, all the times I stubbornly stayed in the hands, I knew in my heart I was beaten. I'm not sure what the name for such behavior is. Masochism comes to mind :-)

I hit the felt at the first table I joined after 45 hands. I reupped for the max at the same table, and went up almost $10K in 25 hands before quitting in disgust at the extremely slow play of one of my opponents. I joined another table for the max, and hit the felt again after 27 more hands. Not a good showing by a long shot. I'm definitely in a slump right now, but know that I'll break out of it eventually.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 97 hands and saw flop:
- 22 out of 23 times while in big blind (95%)
- 23 out of 25 times while in small blind (92%)
- 37 out of 49 times in other positions (75%)
- a total of 82 out of 97 (84%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 30 (43%)
Pots won without showdown - 15

delta: $-70,375
balance: $1,781,812

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Donk detection

One of the great things about poker is the wealth of poker lingo that exists. It can be colorful, humorous, politically incorrect, or pejorative. Sometimes, it can be all of these at once. One of the terms on the pejorative side is donkey, or donk for short. A donk is someone who plays idiotically, typically by betting in an indiscriminate manner. Players who aren't donks in general can be donks at times, such as by going on tilt or heeding the imp of the perverse. I'm not a donk, but have played like one now and then.

Last night, one of my opponents was either a donk or playing like one. He kept betting the pot hand after hand; statistically, it's highly improbable that he had a strong hand more than half of the time. He'd repeat a pattern of hitting the felt, reupping for the minimum starting amount ($12K), hitting the felt again, reupping, etc. Lather, rinse, repeat. For a while I folded like a good boy, but I heeded a double hunch when he bet the pot one time too many; I had a good feeling about my 9 6 offsuit, and felt sure he was bluffing. Sure enough, my two pair of nines and sixes bet his pair of nines for a pot worth $41,600. I lived off that for the remainder of the session.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 85 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 12 times while in big blind (100%)
- 8 out of 10 times while in small blind (80%)
- 41 out of 63 times in other positions (65%)
- a total of 61 out of 85 (71%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 11 (63%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $21,800
balance: $1,852,187

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Nined

Last night, I got nined. That is, I was a 91% favorite to win a hand after the turn, and lost to the 9% underdog. Ironically, my losing hand was 3 of a kind, nines :-) The winning hand was a straight (made on the river, of course). This was on hand 10, and foreshadowed the kind of session I was in for.

The one bright spot of the night was that I was able to obey my recent stricture and quit before I hit the felt. I certainly flirted with it, however; on my penultimate hand, I won a pot where fully 82% was o.p.m. (other people's money). That's a crazily high number which basically means the pot is up for grabs; it's very dangerous to stay in hands like that (but easy to do when you're severely short-stacked, as I was).

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 12 times while in big blind (75%)
- 9 out of 13 times while in small blind (69%)
- 40 out of 61 times in other positions (65%)
- a total of 58 out of 86 (67%)
Pots won at showdown - 7 of 18 (38%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-36,300
balance: $1,830,387

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Exit cue

More often than not, when I have a losing session, I lose my full starting stack amount. This is an area of my game I really need to work on; it's much better to quit before hitting the felt, since the loss will be smaller. Sometimes, the poker gods make this easier to do than others; this was true last night. The poker gods have a funny way of showing you their mercy; they do it by sending you a hand at the end of a long session which should surely win, but doesn't. I consider a bad beat late in a session to be an unequivocal exit cue. Of course, on a really bad beat, you might end up hitting the felt anyway; if you do have chips left over, however, my advice is to get out of Dodge fast. The poker gods are telling you it just aint your night.

On hand 127, I made a straight on the turn, but lost to a full house which was made on the river. I was one of three players to go to showdown. I was a 62% favorite after the turn. I called it a night on the next hand.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 128 hands and saw flop:
- 16 out of 20 times while in big blind (80%)
- 13 out of 20 times while in small blind (65%)
- 58 out of 88 times in other positions (65%)
- a total of 87 out of 128 (67%)
Pots won at showdown - 9 of 28 (32%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $-26,196
balance: $1,866,687



Monday, August 8, 2011

Sucker punch

On Saturday night, I lost $20,917 on a "sucker punch" hand. The most salient feature of a sucker punch is that you can't see it coming, so you're defenseless against it. On the hand in question, my ace high flush got clobbered by four of a kind, sixes. The player with the quads had been dealt two sixes, and flopped two more. He held off betting anything until the river. Only the fact that I started the hand with more chips than him prevented me from hitting the felt, as he ended up going all in and I called. My read on his river betting was that he also had a good flush, maybe king or queen high. He disguised his hand excellently.

What all good poker players have the ability to do is to take a sucker punch and roll with it. They don't go on tilt, as many lesser players would. They chalk up the hit to the poker gods, keep believing in themselves, keep making good poker decisions, and do everything they can to grind their way back to the top. I'm happy to be able to say I did all those things. The sucker punch came on hand 29, and took my stack from $34,100 all the way down to $13,183. My stack hit a low of $5,783 on hand 47. With some luck and some skill, I hung in there, eventually got my stack back up to its starting amount, and finally went significantly into the black on hand 142. In a bit of poetic justice, the amount I won on hand 142 was a squeak more than what I'd lost on hand 29.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 143 hands and saw flop:
- 15 out of 18 times while in big blind (83%)
- 10 out of 20 times while in small blind (50%)
- 68 out of 105 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 93 out of 143 (65%)
Pots won at showdown - 17 of 23 (73%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $28,548
balance: $1,892,883

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Patience: a gossamer thread?

Last night, I played with commendable patience for over two and a half hours. My stack reached a peak of nearly $60K, but then slowly descended back towards its starting level of $40K. On hand 78, for some reason I lost patience, and went all in on a pair of kings. I'd been dealt a big slick, and the board never paired. I lost to a jack high flush. Felt city.

This occurrence makes me wonder whether patience is illusory. Maybe patience is a gossamer thread, waiting for just that extra little bit of annoyance to snap it in twain. I hope I'm wrong about that. I do know that you need to have guts to succeed in poker, but you also need not to be stupid. Last night, on the final hand, I evinced both guts and stupidity. Back to the drawing board!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 78 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
- 10 out of 12 times while in small blind (83%)
- 42 out of 56 times in other positions (75%)
- a total of 60 out of 78 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 14 (57%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-40,000
balance: $1,864,335

Friday, August 5, 2011

Foundation hands

Last night, the success of my session was largely due to two hands. One came at about the midway point, and the other at the end. They each caused my stack to take a big jump up. You could call these types of hands foundation hands, since they form the foundation on which the success of the whole session rests. To have a winning session, you really don't need a lot of foundation hands; often enough, a single one will do. However, it's not sufficient to have the foundation hands; you must also make some good laydowns. That's a skill I'm getting better at (I think!).

On the first foundation hand, I won a pot worth $30,600 ($16,200 of it other people's money) with a queen high flush; on the second, I won a pot worth $17,400 ($12,000 of it other people's money) with three of a kind, aces.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 59 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 7 times while in big blind (71%)
- 5 out of 7 times while in small blind (71%)
- 28 out of 45 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 38 out of 59 (64%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $26,800
balance: $1,904,335

Thursday, August 4, 2011

The streak is over

At last, now that it's over, I can finally talk about the awesome winning streak I've been on for the past three weeks. I subscribe to the superstition that it's bad luck to talk about a streak while it's in progress; foolishly, I did that once on this blog (and promptly lost). The streak ended at 15, a new personal best. The longest streak I'd had prior to that was 10. I know from experience how difficult a feat this is.

Of course, it's ironic that the streak ended on a Wednesday, the one day in the week I could have expected it to continue!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 100 hands and saw flop:
- 10 out of 15 times while in big blind (66%)
- 10 out of 14 times while in small blind (71%)
- 47 out of 71 times in other positions (66%)
- a total of 67 out of 100 (67%)
Pots won at showdown - 9 of 20 (45%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $-40,000
balance: $1,877,535

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Pot bunches

Often, won pots come in bunches, preceded and followed by long dry spells. For this reason, it's a viable strategy to quit playing when you feel you've gotten the best of your current bunch. Of course, you should never quit immediately after winning a pot; you should wait until you either lose a pot or fold. That's why you'll often hear me talking about the penultimate hand of my previous session; the final hand, unless I hit the felt with it, is almost invariably a hand I folded before showdown.

Last night, I had a stretch where I won four hands out of six; I figured I'd gotten the best of this bunch and called it a night on the next hand, which I ended up folding on the river.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 17 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 3 times while in big blind (100%)
- 2 out of 3 times while in small blind (66%)
- 11 out of 11 times in other positions (100%)
- a total of 16 out of 17 (94%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 5 (80%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $10,700
balance: $1,917,535

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Other people's money

As impressive as winning a huge pot is, what's more impressive is winning a pot which has a huge amount of other people's money in it. The minimum amount of other people's money in a won pot is half the pot. The maximum amount of other people's money in a won pot can theoretically be as high as 88.88% of the pot; that is, 8 / 9, in the scenario where all players at a nine player table go to showdown, and there are no uncovered bets. Clearly, that never happens.

I just wrote some tools to come up with a sorted list of the amounts of other people's money I've won per pot playing pot limit hold'em. Why did I do this? Because I had a hunch that my biggest pot from last night's session would turn out to contain the largest amount of other people's money I've ever won in a single pot limit hold'em pot. I was almost right :-) My two pair of aces and deuces won a monster pot worth $106,400, of which $71,600 (67%) was other people's money; this made it to #3 on my all time list.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 103 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 10 times while in big blind (50%)
- 9 out of 14 times while in small blind (64%)
- 59 out of 79 times in other positions (74%)
- a total of 73 out of 103 (70%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 16 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $68,304
balance: $1,906,835

Monday, August 1, 2011

Another magic poker number

I've mentioned before that I invariably join a table which already has six active players, making it a table of seven. If luck and skill is evenly distributed, each player at such a table can expect to win once every seven hands, or 14% of the time. In practice, neither luck nor skill is evenly distributed. I've discovered that a good goal to shoot for is 50% above the average, or 21%. A player with more skill than most of the other players at the table can reasonably expect to achieve this.

Last Friday night, I hit this magic number in a short but sweet session. On the penultimate hand of the night, my 9 high straight won a pot worth $31,400.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 14 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
- 2 out of 2 times while in small blind (100%)
- 9 out of 10 times in other positions (90%)
- a total of 13 out of 14 (92%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 5 (40%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $21,200
balance: $1,838,531