Friday, July 29, 2011

Autopilot

Last night, I played quite well, but missed all my exit cues. I was basically on autopilot, fully engaged with making good poker decisions, but not stepping back and assessing when might be a good time to leave the table. One contributing factor may have been that the hands were being played at a rapid clip, so I got into the flow and just kept going.

If I'd heeded the first exit cue, I would have made about $26K in profit. If I'd heeded the next one, I'd have made about $39K. If I'd heeded the third and final one, I'd have made about $38K. After that last cue, my stack made a slow and steady descent back down towards its starting amount; you could almost say it was a stately descent :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 139 hands and saw flop:
- 33 out of 33 times while in big blind (100%)
- 32 out of 34 times while in small blind (94%)
- 66 out of 72 times in other positions (91%)
- a total of 131 out of 139 (94%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 24 (54%)
Pots won without showdown - 18

delta: $2,500
balance: $1,817,331

Thursday, July 28, 2011

This Wednesday thing

Last night was a Wednesday night. Last night I had an awesome session. Coincidence? I used to think so, but the numbers make a compelling case that there may be more to it than that. Here are my current delta totals, aggregated by weekday:

Sun: 43,067
Mon: 262,909
Tue: -10,877
Wed: 1,074,137
Thu: 28,736
Fri: 403,936
Sat: -75,819

Wednesday more than doubles its nearest competitor. Wednesday isn't that far from doubling all the other days of the week combined. In short, Wednesday obliterates the field. I've been trying to figure out why this might be. The best reason I can come up with is that mentally, I'm in more of a comfort zone on Wednesdays than on any other day of the week. A mind in its comfort zone operates more efficiently, is less distracted, and perhaps most importantly, is more optimistic. Poker requires optimism, albeit intelligent optimism.

On the penultimate hand of the session, I more than doubled up. On the turn, I faced a huge bet from an opponent who almost assuredly had a straight. I had a set; I knew I was some sort of an underdog, but had a hunch the river card would pair one of the other board cards, giving me a full house and the monster pot. Accordingly, I called. My hunch paid off; my tens full of sevens won the $103,400 pot. I called it a night the very next hand, of course. I then used my homegrown poker odds calculator to find out how big a dog I'd been; it was pretty bad. My chances of winning had been a mere 21%. What can I say? I heard the call of the luck!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 90 hands and saw flop:
- 15 out of 18 times while in big blind (83%)
- 18 out of 21 times while in small blind (85%)
- 35 out of 51 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 68 out of 90 (75%)
Pots won at showdown - 15 of 24 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $69,900
balance: $1,814,831

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Saved by a flush

Last night, my stack took a precipitous drop in the middle third of the session. If I hadn't been lucky enough to flop a flush and double up at just the right time, I would likely have hit the felt. I wouldn't have been able to double up on the hand if my opponent hadn't flopped a really decent hand also - a set of jacks. As you know, flushes are my favorite type of hand; it felt great to be saved by one!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 104 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 14 times while in big blind (85%)
- 12 out of 13 times while in small blind (92%)
- 56 out of 77 times in other positions (72%)
- a total of 80 out of 104 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 14 (57%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $6,880
balance: $1,744,931

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Milestone

Tonight marks my 365th post. I can remember boasting when I hit 50 posts that I was probably already in the top 50% of bloggers when measured solely by number of posts. What I didn't realize then was how therapeutic, and therefore addictive in a good way, blogging is. Knowing this now, I retract my braggadocio. I have no idea where I stand in the universe of bloggers, but it doesn't matter. Blogging was, is, and will always be its own justification, needing no outside recognition or stamp of approval. It's a conversation you carry on with yourself over time, with the benefit that others can listen in if and when they want.

Why choose the 365th post as a milestone? Of course, it's because 365 is the number of days in a year. If I'd managed to post every single day since I started, this post would have been written on November 24th, 2010. Loving statistics the way I do, I calculated that I've been posting at nearly a 60% clip - roughly 6 posts every 10 days. Of course, given the subject matter of my blog, that also means I've been playing poker at the same clip.

Last night, I had the canonical "poker diet" session. I'd take 10 of them in a row any time!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 38 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 5 times while in big blind (40%)
- 2 out of 5 times while in small blind (40%)
- 20 out of 28 times in other positions (71%)
- a total of 24 out of 38 (63%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $5,898
balance: $1,738,051

Monday, July 25, 2011

14 singles and a home run

Poker seems to lend itself particularly well to analogies with other sports. In a previous post, I compared a poker player investing too heavily (and wishfully) in a hand with a batter swinging for the fences in baseball. It's almost guaranteed that you'll lose a ton of chips in such a situation. Last Thursday night, I never swung for the fences; every hit was a single except for one. However, the exception actually was a home run, even though it wasn't caused by a mighty swing on my part. It was a gift given by an opponent who made a poor river bet; I'd hit a flush on the river and he made a big bluff at the pot. That was on hand 17, which turned out to be less than a third of the way through the session; I managed to preserve a good chunk of the profit from that one hand for the rest of the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 61 hands and saw flop:
- 13 out of 13 times while in big blind (100%)
- 12 out of 13 times while in small blind (92%)
- 30 out of 35 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 55 out of 61 (90%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 17 (64%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $20,400
balance: $1,732,153

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Grinding

Last night I had to wait a long time to get into the black - 71 hands. I called it a night on the very next hand. That's a textbook example of grinding - hanging in and hanging on, fighting to bring your stack back up to its starting level. You know you won't be able to win much, but you want to be able to win something. Grinding is definitely good for you; it keeps you humble, and keeps you from making foolish plays. Pot limit hold'em is much more amenable to a grinding style than no limit is; that's one of the reasons I switched back to pot limit when I went into no limit freefall. My aim is to grind my way back to the golden ratio, and see where that takes my balance.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 72 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 10 times while in big blind (90%)
- 9 out of 12 times while in small blind (75%)
- 37 out of 50 times in other positions (74%)
- a total of 55 out of 72 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 10 (60%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $6,100
balance: $1,711,753

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

In the sweetness

Since I started keeping track of the number of hands played per session, I've played over 10,000 hands. Extrapolating that over the total number of sessions I've played so far, my career total comes out to around 25,000 hands. When you've played that many hands, you're very aware of the capriciousness of Lady Luck. You also know that in the long run, luck evens out. You'll go through awful patches, and also awesome ones. The awfulness and awesomeness can be on any scale. When I switched to no limit hold'em in early April, I went on a tear that lasted over a month; I knew how great it was, and wrote a post about it ("These are the good old days").

At the end of last night's session, I won three hands in a row. This was a mini awesome patch; a good description of such times is that you're "in the sweetness". When you're in the sweetness, stay right where you are until the ride is over; don't think of calling it a night a second before!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 36 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
- 6 out of 7 times while in small blind (85%)
- 16 out of 23 times in other positions (69%)
- a total of 27 out of 36 (75%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $23,564
balance: $1,705,653

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Horrendous river bet

You might think, given the title of this post, that I hit the felt last night. Actually, I had a great session. I was the beneficiary of a horrendous river bet made by one of my opponents. The opponent in question had flopped a stealth two pair, and decided to go all in with them on the river; trouble was, the board at that point showed four non-contiguous cards to a straight, and I had the fifth card. The board hadn't paired, so there was no possibility of a full house. There's no reason on earth why anyone with only two pairs should ever bet the river that way. It guarantees that you'll maximize what you can lose, and minimize what you can win. I won the $63,400 pot, and knew I wouldn't be playing too much longer.

On the penultimate hand of the night, I hit a stealth two pair on the turn, bet the pot, and won without a showdown. Stealth two pairs can be bet heavily on the flop or the turn, but should never be bet heavily on the river. That's my newest poker rule!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 24 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
- 3 out of 5 times while in small blind (60%)
- 12 out of 14 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 19 out of 24 (79%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 9 (44%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $40,500
balance: $1,682,089

Monday, July 18, 2011

Waiting game

Last Friday night, I played a waiting game for over a hundred and twenty hands, never straying very far from my starting stack amount of $40K. I knew a really big pot was coming down the pike; I just didn't know who'd be winning it. When it came, I was convinced I'd be the one. The thing is, my confidence was misplaced, even though I did end up winning it. I'd been dealt a pair of tens, and caught a ten on the flop; however, an opponent had flopped a straight. I was a 36% underdog at that point, though I didn't know it; the only way I could win was if the board paired. As it turned out, the board did pair, and I won a huge pot worth $85,800 with tens full of aces.

It's humbling to realize you sucked out when you thought you were ahead. I'll take the gift, and the humble pie also.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 128 hands and saw flop:
- 28 out of 29 times while in big blind (96%)
- 28 out of 29 times while in small blind (96%)
- 53 out of 70 times in other positions (75%)
- a total of 109 out of 128 (85%)
Pots won at showdown - 17 of 39 (43%)
Pots won without showdown - 14

delta: $45,700
balance: $1,641,589

Friday, July 15, 2011

Right-sided uberflush

Last night, I wasn't able to stick to my poker diet. I'd gotten a really nice early lift from being on the winning end of an uberflush; on the third hand, my ace high flush beat a king high flush for a pot worth $22,800. That gave me opportunity chips to extend my play beyond the canonical 35 hands. I don't recall ever being on the right side of an uberflush before, but maybe that's because of opponents mucking their hands instead of showing them.

I played essentially even for the remainder of the session. I'll take a $10,000 profit any day. I aim to achieve another odd crossing tonight.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 71 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 12 times while in big blind (100%)
- 6 out of 12 times while in small blind (50%)
- 36 out of 47 times in other positions (76%)
- a total of 54 out of 71 (76%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 16 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $10,000
balance: $1,595,889

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Blueprint session

Last night, I was able to follow my recent blueprint for a successful session. Cautious play? Check. Early lift? Check. Reasonable profit? Check. No more than 35 hands? Check. Of course, only two of these four goals can be achieved every session - the first and the last. The middle two are up to the poker gods.

As a by-product of changing my focus to winning, no matter how small, from trying to get to two million play dollars as fast as possible, I'm hoping I'll eventually be able to re-achieve the golden ratio. Time will tell!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 34 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 7 times while in big blind (71%)
- 3 out of 7 times while in small blind (42%)
- 19 out of 20 times in other positions (95%)
- a total of 27 out of 34 (79%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $13,100
balance: $1,585,889

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Reverse swoosh

Last night, I halted my losing streak at three sessions. I had to go a little bit off my "poker diet" to do it, however :-) After 35 hands, I was down $5,800; instead of calling it a night right then, I decided to play a little longer to see if I could end up in the black.

The bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session vaguely resembles a mirror image of the Nike logo - that is, a reverse swoosh. It starts out on a long, slow decline, then ends by rising sharply. I won four of my last seven hands - four of my last six if you don't count the "Sayonara" hand.

My goal for the immediate future is to play very cautiously, and try to build up a streak of winning sessions. I won't care how little I win, as long as I'm winning.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 53 hands and saw flop:
- 10 out of 12 times while in big blind (83%)
- 7 out of 11 times while in small blind (63%)
- 21 out of 30 times in other positions (70%)
- a total of 38 out of 53 (71%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $2,320
balance: $1,572,789

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Poker diet

Last Friday night, I hit the felt again, after 130 hands. I realize I need to go on a poker diet. By this I don't mean that I want to play less sessions; I mean that I want to play less hands each session. Somehow lately, I've fallen into a sit 'n go mindset; that is, I've decided to take on the whole table, and play until either I hit the felt or am the sole remaining player. There are at least three strange things about this mentality:

1. I've never played a sit 'n go before
2. the cast of characters at the table constantly changes, unlike a real sit 'n go
3. one against seven is terrible odds

From past experience, I know that 35 is a good number of hands to shoot for. Fewer than that, and you don't give yourself enough of a chance to catch a monster hand; more than that, and you risk losing back anything you've gained. So my goal is to play no more than 35 hands a session for the foreseeable future, starting tonight.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 130 hands and saw flop:
- 16 out of 19 times while in big blind (84%)
- 16 out of 21 times while in small blind (76%)
- 57 out of 90 times in other positions (63%)
- a total of 89 out of 130 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 20 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-40,000
balance: $1,570,469

Friday, July 8, 2011

The Lazarus Line

I hit the felt last night on my 78th hand. Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, the downward trend is very conspicuous. I wasn't playing well, but I wasn't playing that poorly, either; I just couldn't get anything going. In hindsight, I should have realized at some point that my night was not going to turn around, and quit before I hit the felt.

I've written before about poker death spirals. I want to crystallize that thinking with a neo neo. Thus "The Lazarus Line". The Lazarus Line is the percentage of your starting stack amount below which your chip stack must not fall. If at any point your stack does fall below it, your best bet is to quit playing right then, since only a Lazarus-like (i.e., highly unlikely) chip rebound can save you at that point.

This concept borrows from baseball's "Mendoza Line", defined by Wikipedia as follows:

"The Mendoza Line takes its name from the shortstop Mario Mendoza's lifetime batting average of .215. It is baseball slang for the threshold of incompetent hitting."

My current feeling is that the Lazarus Line is around .22, quite close to the Mendoza Line.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 78 hands and saw flop:
- 7 out of 10 times while in big blind (70%)
- 11 out of 12 times while in small blind (91%)
- 41 out of 56 times in other positions (73%)
- a total of 59 out of 78 (75%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 8 (25%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-40,000
balance: $1,610,469

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Top pair blindness

I played quite well last night, with the notable exception of two hands. In each one, I fell victim to top pair blindness. By this I mean I overvalued my top pairs to the extent of not bothering to check whether the betting patterns of my opponents indicated that my hands might well be beaten. On the first hand, a straight draw popped up on the turn, but I didn't notice it because my queens were still the top pair on the board. Unfortunately for me, another queen hit on the river, and I bet my trips heavily; they lost to a straight (which had been made on the turn). I lost $20,500 on that hand. On the second hand, I went all in on the turn with my top pair of jacks; I lost to pocket kings. I lost $10,500 on that hand, which took me to the felt. I reupped for the max at the same table, and played 78 more hands basically dead even before finally calling it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 107 hands and saw flop:
- 6 out of 12 times while in big blind (50%)
- 13 out of 15 times while in small blind (86%)
- 48 out of 80 times in other positions (60%)
- a total of 67 out of 107 (62%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 17 (35%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-40,400
balance: $1,650,469

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Opportunity chips

Rightly considered, poker chips are a means to an end, not an end in and of themselves. When I win a decent amount of chips at the start of a session, I consider them "opportunity chips" - in other words, chips that should be spent in pursuit of even greater fortune in the future. With opportunity chips, you can afford to pay to see more flops than you otherwise would be willing to. Note that you shouldn't spend opportunity chips foolishly; when you pay a little extra to see a flop, and the flop misses your hand completely, get out of Dodge right away.

If poker chips aren't an end, to what end are they the means? That's simple - poker glory. It's even easier to understand when the chips represent play dollars instead of real dollars. From the very beginning, I knew that the challenge of winning a million play dollars was a true test of poker skill, despite the fact the the money wasn't real. I coveted achieving the goal so that I could prove to myself I'm actually very good at this great game.

Last night, I got a nice early lift which supplied me with $10K of opportunity chips. They slowly dwindled down for the remainder of the session, until my stack fell a bit below its starting amount of $40K. However, I could hear the sound of distant thunder approaching, and knew the thunder was mine! I won a pot worth $52,700 with a set of fours, and called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 73 hands and saw flop:
- 7 out of 8 times while in big blind (87%)
- 6 out of 10 times while in small blind (60%)
- 34 out of 55 times in other positions (61%)
- a total of 47 out of 73 (64%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $24,800
balance: $1,690,869

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Wednesday milestone

As you know, every so often I check up on some oddball, statistically insignificant stats. I just discovered I've achieved another play million milestone - I've won more than a million play dollars in sessions played on a Wednesday.

Last Saturday night, I had a very successful session; so successful, in fact, that it made my top ten all time (based on delta). This was largely due to the fact that I had not one but two very lucrative full houses. Poker life is good again!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 87 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 6 out of 11 times while in small blind (54%)
- 50 out of 64 times in other positions (78%)
- a total of 64 out of 87 (73%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 13 (76%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $95,150
balance: $1,666,069

Saturday, July 2, 2011

Microsession

Last night, I won a decent pot straight out of the gate, and decided it was big enough to call it a night right there. I'm definitely back in my comfort zone, playing pot limit hold'em. This is the poker variant which gives me my best chance to re-achieve the golden ratio. As of the current moment I'm 22 winning sessions in arrears of the golden ratio; since my number of sessions is reasonably large, my winning percentage is quite close to the golden ratio. Right now my winning percentage is 65%, just a tad shy of the golden ratio percentage of 66.66666...%.

Clearly, I'm not going to hit 2 million play dollars by the end of the summer. If I'd continued to run as hot as I was running, I'd have hit it by now, but it just wasn't meant to be. My revised plan is to hit the two million play dollars plateau by Christmas, and to give a totally new poker variant a try at that time. The current frontrunner is deuce to the seven triple draw. I can't wait!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 2 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
- 0 out of 1 times while in small blind (0%)
- 0 out of 0 times in other positions (0%)
- a total of 1 out of 2 (50%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $27,900
balance: $1,570,919

Friday, July 1, 2011

House crushes table

Last night, my session ended in the best possible way. I was the sole survivor, with all the chips. The table had dwindled down to me and two other players, and I had the big stack. Both opponents went all in on the final hand, and lost to the full house which I made on the river. As it turned out, I hadn't need to hit this "fatty" in order to win; my two pair of jacks and nines would have been good enough.

I'm loving it that I'm not having to deal with pre flop all inners any more!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 70 hands and saw flop:
- 17 out of 18 times while in big blind (94%)
- 12 out of 17 times while in small blind (70%)
- 30 out of 35 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 59 out of 70 (84%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 13 (61%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $35,309
balance: $1,543,019