Friday, January 29, 2010

Marathon session

I played for roughly 5 hours tonight; 136 hands in all. I saw the flop 105 times; 77% of the time. I won 13 of 25 pots at showdown, 52% of the time. I also won 5 pots without a showdown. My fortunes went up and down over the course of the session. Poker is like the tide. If I'd been more disciplined, I would have quit the first time I was up by more than a grand. But I was enjoying bantering with my fellow players, and also simply enjoying playing. I didn't panic when the tide went out, since I knew in the natural course of events it would be coming back in before too long.

The more I play, the more I realize the undeniable value of patience. You just have to be willing to fold, fold, and fold again, until the stars align in your favor. That won't always happen, but it has a way better chance of happening if you're being very patient.

You have to concentrate on keeping an even keel. Don't get too up; don't get too down. Just sort of hang around, but recognize your big opportunities when they appear. A big opportunity is three of a kind or better, in my experience. When one comes along, put your money in the middle! That's what I did, my last winning hand of the night. In this case, it wasn't a three of a kind; it wasn't even two pairs. It was just one pair, but a pair of aces, and was worth $5,230. That's an unconscionable amount of money at a $5/$10 table!

delta: $3,292
balance: $277,198

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Back to earth

My winning streak ended tonight. I knew I was in trouble when I finally got a premium hand -- a straight -- and had a split pot with it. I picked up a mere pittance above what I'd invested, and had the gut feeling that I was headed for the felt. Sometimes, you just know. The thing is, in those situations, there's often not a damn thing you can do about it. I was one of the short stacks for much of the night, and the bigger stacks were pricing me out of the market. I had to pay more to see flops than I wanted, but I had to see some flops if I wanted to have any chance of getting back on my feet.

At a certain point, you get into a poker death spiral; at that point, you're completely in the hands of fate. You don't have enough chips to even make any real decisions, good or bad; your only real option is to throw your chips in and pray.

It still floors me how some players join the table with less than the maximum starting amount; they're just courting the poker death spiral, in my opinion.

I'm disappointed by my results tonight, but not devastated, or even discouraged. I knew I was due for some bad luck after the incredible dose of good luck I got last night.

delta: -$2,000
balance: $273,906

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Lady luck

What a dream opening hand! I was dealt 8 4 offsuit, and the flop came 8 4 and some other low card I forget. A hidden two pair right off the bat -- my favorite love/hate hand! There were two other betters, one betting big, and I raised him. The turn card was a 4, giving me a full house. I ended up going all in, and won a huge pot -- $5,600 and change. The only way to do that with a starting stack of $2,000 is to go all in and have more than one other player believe very strongly in his/her hand.

I knew I was going to end my night right there. For luck, I stayed around to see one more flop, then folded after I saw it. I was so excited, I forgot to cut and paste the hand for posterity before leaving the table. But I'll remember it just fine!

delta: $3,610
balance: $275,906

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Streak

Don't look now, but I'm on a hot streak. Counting tonight's session, I've had six plus sessions in a row. I'm gonna keep this ball rolling as long as I can! I'm in the proverbial zone. I'm sure there will be lean times ahead, but right now I'm living off the fat of the land.

What I see myself getting better and better at is folding when it's right to fold. For example, twice tonight I folded pre-flop when it was clear there were multiple players who were going to keep re-raising each other. Each time I donated a mere $10 to the pot. It really makes no sense to me why anyone would keep re-raising pre-flop, to the point where the pot gets to be 100 times the big blind. That's the behavior of hard-core losing gamblers; no one who hopes to come out on top over the long haul could follow such a risky strategy. You should only bet that much when you have much more information than you do pre-flop.

One temptation I wasn't faced with tonight was chasing a flush; that's still a recurring weakness in my game. I can say I've never been tempted to chase a gut-shot straight; that would be insanity, plain and simple. However, I do notice the times when the insanity would have paid off; I would have won an additional decent-sized pot tonight if I were a gut-shot chaser.

My last winning hand of the night (which is now almost invariably the penultimate hand -- I always play one more hand after winning a big hand just for luck), I was dealt ace jack offsuit. The flop was king ace queen. The turn was another king, and the river was a 4. My two pair of aces and kings beat two pair of kings and queens in a side pot, and a pair of kings in the main pot. The total of the side pot and the main pot was $2,615.

delta: $1,055
balance: $272,296

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Confidence

I'm feeling invincible right now. Of course, that's not realistic, but damn, it feels so right. Confidence is a funny thing; if you don't have enough of it, you're screwed. If you have too much of it, you're also screwed. But if you have just the right amount of it, it can take you "to the moon, Alice!", and even beyond.

The way I feel right now, I don't think I'll ever have another losing session. That's truly a wonderful feeling, however misguided!

The lovers of poker form a community, even if most of us never meet each other. I'm proud to be a member of this community. Phil Laak loves poker so much, he taught his girlfriend Jennifer Tilly what he knows, and now she's a world class player in her own right. Phil claims that no one loves poker more than he does, and I absolutely believe him. The reason I believe him is the simple fact that no one loves poker more than I do, either. Unconditional love is a wonderful thing! My love can't trump his, but by the same token, his love can't trump mine.

I'm at the point where it's getting increasingly harder for me to remember my winning hands. I hope this is a good thing! I hope it means I'm automatically making the right decisions, the way we do so much automatically without having to think about it. For example, we don't have to think about breathing -- we just do it. Of course, for my own edification, I do save the history of the hands I win, and also the history of my memorable losses. So I could tell you, not from the evidence of my own synapses, but from the evidence of the files I saved during the course of play, what my winning hands were. However, I'll limit myself to my final winning hand, so as not to try your patience. I had a full house, sevens full of kings, beating a full house, sevens full of eights. That pot was worth $3,440.

delta: $1,400
balance: $271,241

Friday, January 22, 2010

The beauty of caution

Thinking about what to discuss in tonight's post, I thought about how my play has changed of late. It was a little surprising for me to realize that I haven't bet the pot in a hand in quite a long while. I guess I've unconsciously come to the realization that while betting the pot is not the best strategy for maximizing one's profit, it's an admirable strategy for losing large amounts of chips. If you have the best hand and bet the pot, it's likely your opponents will fold, and you won't have extracted any extra chips out of them. If you're only hoping you have the best hand, bet the pot, and get a caller or two, it's more likely than not that you don't actually have the best hand. Holding back from such a large bet helps in both situations. In the first one, you might actually extract more chips from your opponents. In the second one, you end up losing less chips than you would have if you'd bet the pot.

So I'm adding another rule of thumb to my growing list -- bet the pot rarely, if ever. I'm coining this strategy "the beauty of caution". You saw it here first :-)

Tonight I settled for less than double my starting stake again. As I said last time, as long as I'm avoiding losing sessions I'm happy.

I discovered today that one reason my Site Meter stats were all zeroes was that there was a little piece of HTML initialization I had to do to get them going. I've done that, so now the numbers will be telling me the awful truth.

Final winning hand of the night: trip jacks, to the tune of $1,260.

delta: $950
balance: $269,841

Thursday, January 21, 2010

New philosophy

Thanks to yesterday's result, I have a new philosophy -- I'll now consider ending my sessions without doubling my initial stake, if I've played well enough. Of course, playing well enough usually entails coming out on the plus side of the ledger.

I felt I had good instincts tonight, and that I maximized the value of the pots I won by not betting too much. My best hand was a set of queens; that pot was worth $1,140, not too shabby at a $5/$10 table.

It's clearly better to steadily win small amounts than to be on the seesaw I started on about ten sessions ago. If your trend looks like a seesaw, that's not a good long-term strategy. I'm in this for the long haul! I've made various estimates of how long it will take me to earn one play million; my most conservative estimates have me making $100K a year. So I should be able to reach my goal in 7.3 more years, before the turn of the next decade.

I took the step of signing up with the free blog statistics site called Site Meter today, to see if anyone's actually reading this blog. I've only told four people about it so far -- my wife, one of my sisters-in-law, my father, and my oldest friend. The initial stats are deafeningly silent -- zeroes across the board. I hope to change that!

delta: $670
balance: $268,891

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Nut flush shocker

My first hand of the night, I was dealt an ace of spades ("the prettiest card in the deck", as I've heard Norman Chad call it), and a ten of spades. Two of the flop cards were spades. I ignored my own advice, and chased the flush. It hit on the river! So I'm airtight with the nut flush, right? Wrong! I got beat by a straight flush. The odds against this happening are astronomical. That hand cut my stack in half. If I'd won that hand, I would have ended my night right there, since the pot was worth $4,975.

When I won a pot with a two pair several hands after that, and another pot with pocket rockets a couple of hands after that, I decided to call it a night, since I was up a respectable amount. Anything on the plus side of the ledger after that first heartbreaking hand was fine with me!

I was actually lucky that the player with the straight flush had less money than I did before the hand started. I'm sure I would have gone all in with my ace high flush. Sometimes the long shots come home; you just have to accept that. I know I have.

delta: $630
balance: $268,221

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Two premium hands

I only played for half an hour tonight. By now you know that means one of two things -- either I busted out, or I doubled (at least) my starting stake. I'm pleased to say it was the latter. My very first hand, I flopped a straight. I slow-played it, and built the pot up steadily. When I raked it in, it was worth $1,675. My second to last hand of the night was a full house, fours full of jacks. It was nicely hidden, as I'd been dealt pocket fours. I was up against someone who kept re-raising me, so I kept re-raising him back until he was all in. He ended up having trip jacks. That pot was worth $2,908. I played one more hand for fun, and folded it after the flop.

Nights when I win, poker seems absurdly simple. Nights when I lose, it seems damnably complex. The truth, of course, is somewhere between those extremes. I have been collecting some good rules of thumb, though, over the fifteen or so months I've been playing. Here are some, which I'll impart to you for the low low price of free:

- burn your rags. i.e., fold your marginal hands at the appropriate juncture.
- chase flushes at your peril. If the price is too steep, just don't do it.
- don't fall in love with two pairs. They can eat huge chunks out of your stack.
- be patient. This is the very simplest rule to state, and one of the very hardest to follow, believe it or not.

delta: $2,879
balance: $267,591

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Humble pie

I took my lumps tonight. Even though I only saw the flop about 58% of the time, and even though I didn't go to that many showdowns, I couldn't buy a pot. The first time my stack was crippled, I got lucky, and was saved by a two pair (my love/hate hand, as you know) to go back to just above $1,000.

My big mistake of the night was to chase a flush, after I'd had the Lazarus resurrection I just mentioned. I was dealt an ace of clubs and a forgettable card, and the flop was all clubs. I called every bet in a vain attempt to see the flush come out; the problem was, people were betting heavily at this point. I remember one of my calls was for $400, which was one fifth of my starting stake. Warning claxons and flashing lights should have been firing all along my synapses at that point, but unfortunately they weren't. The flush didn't come out, and once again my stack was crippled. I knew in my heart there wouldn't be another Lazarus moment.

To add a little bit of insult to injury, there were two hands tonight that I got extra cute on. I folded before the flop two separate times when I would have had a killer hand if I'd just had the balls to hang in. To preserve those moments for posterity, I used the Windows key combination Alt-Shift-PrintScreen to do screen captures which show what would have been my monster hands, but with me already out of the running. On the first one, I was dealt a six and a three, and the flop was six six three. I flopped an *expletive deleted* full house, only I didn't, since I folded before the flop. On the second one, I was dealt a six and a nine, and the flop was seven eight five. I "flopped" an *expletive deleted* straight on that one. When you miss those types of hands by folding early, you know you won't see many (if any) more like that, no matter how long you hang in. You've basically ****ed your poker karma for the night.

If I'd been really honest with myself about the way my night was going, I would have ended my night after the Lazarus moment. Much better to go down by $850 than by the full $2,000. Live and learn!

This game sure is humbling. Every time I think I've got a good handle on it, I get bopped "up side the head". I keep coming back for more, though. The way I look at it, I'm just getting "seasoned"!

delta: -$2,000
balance: $264,712

Friday, January 15, 2010

Stop gain

Tonight, I doubled my initial stake on my very first hand. Not only that, it was a two pair! I can't give them up, no matter what I say, even though I know they're not good for me. I was all in on the hand, and would have had to end my night if I'd lost it (which would have set a new record for futility).

Seeing that I'd doubled up, you're now asking yourself whether I ended my night right there. I couldn't pull the trigger. I felt I was playing with house money, and even if I went on a cold streak, I could still quit later while I was still ahead (or so I rationalized; there's a lot of rationalizing in poker).

As it turned out, I needn't have worried. I was on a hot streak. I only had three showdowns tonight, and won them all. The second one was a split pot, on another two pair. On the final one I had trip nines; that pot was worth $5,460.

At this point, I implemented my "stop gain" strategy, and ended my night. I knew I'd be pressing my luck to continue to play. Tonight's winnings cover over half of my slump losses.

It's amazing how confident I feel right now, poker-wise.

delta: $4,815
balance: $266,712

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Solidly mired in my second slump

I played for about 2 hours tonight, and stayed on an even keel for more than the first hour. Then I hit a bad patch, and couldn't recover from it. I think I need to add another self-imposed rule -- if I've played for over an hour, and have more money than when I started (even if it's only $100), it's time to quit.

I had some heartbreaking hands toward the end of my session. One of them, my two pair of aces and kings lost out to three kings. I really have to stop believing in two pairs; I'm sure that's the hand I've lost the most money on in my career. My last hand, I was dealt two queens and flopped a set. At that time, I was severely short-stacked, so I was all in pretty quickly. I lost out to a spade flush; four of the five community cards were spades, including the river card. Sometimes you just can't win for losing!

delta: -$2,000
balance: $261,897

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Bullied

I've never mentioned them before, but here are my three rules of thumb for picking a table to join:

1. it should currently have 6 players
2. the majority of the players should have stacks above the table maximum
3. the chip leader shouldn't have 3 or more times the amount of chips of the nearest competitor

To be honest, I only formulated rule 3 tonight. Here's the rationale behind the 3 rules:

1. with less than 6 other players, there aren't enough chips in play to make it worth my while
2. without most of the players being above the table maximum, there aren't enough chips in play to make it worth my while
3. if the chip leader has significantly more chips than the rest of the table, he/she can bully the whole table. This is a losing proposition.

Here's how the bullying works -- the bully can force the lesser chip stacks to go all in if they want to stay in the hand. The bully doesn't have to have premium hands to do this. As long as any of the underlings bet anything, that plays right into the bully's hands -- he/she just bets the pot when it comes to his/her turn. Even if no underling bets, the bully can still bet the pot; it just gets bigger faster if underlings are also betting.

When I joined the table, three of the players had roughly 2K, and the chip leader had 7K. I should have stayed away! The bully's stack kept growing, topping out at 16K the last I remember. The bully actually did have premium hands most of the time an underling dared to call. I fairly quickly got to a point where I was just north of crippled. My last hand of the night, I was dealt pocket rockets and ending up going all in. I lost to a straight (not the bully's).

Please understand that I'm not being pejorative calling this player a bully; that's exactly the right way to play having an "overstack". I've never really been in that position, since I tend to end my night when I've doubled my initial stake.

Last Friday night, after my two losing sessions, I watched "Poker After Dark" on TV. Gabe Kaplan, of "Welcome Back, Kotter" fame, won $120,000. It was a winner take all format. Great going, Gabe!

delta: -$2,000
balance: $263,897

Friday, January 8, 2010

Bludgeoned

What can I tell you, I was bludgeoned, battered, and beaten to a bloody pulp in my second session of the night. Why couldn't I follow my own simple rules? The only bright spot was that the first table I joined was playing so aggressively I got sick of it and left while I was up $570. Since the max starting amount at the $5/$10 tables is $2,000, that meant the max I could lose in my second session was $2,000 - $570, or $1,430.

I've been collecting a series of poker phrases. Here are some from tonight:

"What defense is there against deep-pocketed stooges?" (mostly rhetorical)

"Crippled!" (I use this when I've lost a big hand, and my chip stack is on life support)

"Up on Cripple Creek" (a variant on the previous phrase, with acknowledgements to The Band)

"Bludgeoned, battered, and beaten!" (I use this one when I don't have a pair and one card of the flop beats one of my cards, and one of the other flop cards beats my other card; there's really no need to stay in such a hand unless you're truly a glutton for punishment)

"I'm sensing that I'm beaten" (I had this good sense a couple of times tonight, but clearly not enough times)

Despite my losses, I love this game more than ever! I'm infatuated with it.

delta: -$1,430
balance: $265,897

Three full houses at showdown

I wasn't able to play poker the last two nights due to having to work extra time at my job, at night from home. So I was in poker withdrawal and raring to go tonight! Wouldn't you know it, I happened to pick another table where there was possible collusion. Some of the players started chatting, and it turned out two were from the same place and owned a business together (and were likely significant others). They didn't bother keeping this a secret. Not only that, they were separated by several seats, and both had the biggest stacks at the table. I left immediately, without leaving a comment.

At my next table, I fell in love with a suited big slick (ace and king of spades), and bet it too big. I lost a bundle on that hand ($520). My final hand of the session, I was short stacked ($475), but flopped trip 9s. The turn gave me a full house, nines full of tens. The problem was, I was drawing dead at that point; two other players had a better full house, tens full of nines. I thought they were bluffing, felt I was pot committed, and went all in. C'est la guerre.

Since it's Friday night, and I'm feeling sharp (albeit snake-bitten), I'm gonna go another round. What are rules, self-imposed or otherwise, if you can't break them sometimes? :-)

delta: -$2,000
balance: $267,327

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Short and sweet

I lucked out tonight; I only played about 10 or 12 hands but had two super ones -- a flush and four queens. On the four queen hand, I was only dealt one queen. I bet the pot on the river, and someone actually called me.

Watching poker on ESPN is where I first learned about value bets. A value bet is betting the maximum you think an opponent might call, and not a single dollar more. The theory is that if you bet more than the value bet amount, players with marginal hands will simply fold, whereas they'll be tempted to call the value bet. I later learned that sometimes players bluff by betting a value bet amount when they actually have nothing. Closely related to the value bet bluff is the bet the pot bluff. The player who called my four queens obviously thought I was bluffing. So reverse psychology, double reverse psychology and endless further layers of reverse psychology can and are used in poker.

delta: $2,020
balance: $269,327

Monday, January 4, 2010

Nibbling

You can't have a monster hand every night. Some nights, you just have to be content to nibble. If you nibble enough, you'll end up with a decent gain. On "nibble nights", you should take pride in folding the hands you should fold. Your showdown percentage will benefit from this strategy, but much more importantly, you'll hang around longer. Half the battle is just hanging around! The longer you can hang around, the better the chances that you'll hit that monster hand.

My best pot of the night was worth $1,870; nothing to write home about, but nothing to sneeze at, either. It was a full house, kings full of queens.

delta: $570
balance: $267,307

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Righting the ship

All is right with my poker world again, at least for now. I had another double my stake night. I'm getting to the point where I fold rags without compunction. I think my earlier estimate of the percentage of hands on which you should see the flop was quite a bit too high.

I saw some possibly really ugly behavior tonight. The first table I joined may have had some collusion going on. I have a habit of checking where the other players hail from sometime over the course of play. Of course, some people enter fictional places, or real places which aren't actually where they hail from. I discovered that two of the players at the table were purportedly from the same place; I'd seen that a couple of other times in the past and it always makes my "spider sense" tingle. These players could be colluding, telling each other what their hands are, and acting as a net more powerful player; they might not care how they do in the individual, as long as they do well in the aggregate. I left a comment that I'd noticed they were from the same place, and left the table. What makes this behavior ugly to me is that I only play at play money tables; for people to cheat for play money seems nonsensical to me, and in some ways worse than cheating for real money!

My big hand of the night (and session ender) was a pair of aces; that pot was worth $3,935.

delta: $2,415
balance: $266,737