The hateful eight

This is the third time I've used this blog post title. As was the case the second time, the hateful eight are my last eight sessions. They clock in as the second worst eight session stretch of my career. I've lost an aggregate of $2,767,300. Hateful enough for ya? :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    19     237   54    81        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    12      85   21     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    20      60   12    40        0
MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    27      90   18    34        0
MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    43     231   54   100        0

delta: $-550,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,585,000
2019 balance: $16,181,850
balance: $62,766,110

The easiest streak

Poker is a game of streaks, at every magnification level. To be successful in the long run, poker players must be able to weather their losing streaks. Like death and taxes, losing streaks cannot be avoided. I'm currently mired in a losing streak, but actually playing well, so I'm not worried. I'm also in the middle of a positive streak - the easiest streak to maintain there is by far. That's the consecutive days played streak :-) Right now, I've played for 47 consecutive days, and tonight will make it 48. My personal best is 79, set on August 10, 2015.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    13     219   45    56        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    29      59   12    24        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    48      64   18    22        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,220,668
2019 balance: $16,731,850
balance: $63,316,110

Smooth odds

Quite often after hitting the rail in a tournament, I'll run my odds calculators on the final hand to see what my odds of winning it were at three different points: before the flop, after the flop, and after the turn. It's common to see the odds fluctuate quite a bit, even flipping which player is the favorite. It's not common when the odds hardly fluctuate at all, but that was the case with my last hand of the night. Here are the numbers:

before the flop: 70.46%
after the flop:  68.59%
after the turn:  70.45%

Now that's what I call smooth odds :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       9   114     123   36    10   132000
MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    50     203   45    49        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    34      45    9    34        0

delta: $-118,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,420,668
2019 balance: $17,131,850
balance: $63,716,110

A stretch goal

As I've mentioned before, I periodically look at various extrapolations, the chief among them being extrapolated profit for the year. One of the others I keep an eye on is extrapolated winnings for the year. That can be a pretty silly one, since you can artificially build it up by throwing caution to the wind, not caring what that does to your profit. However, if you play seriously, as I do, winnings for the year has some meaning. Right now, my extrapolated winnings for the year is $96,900,398. I'm going to try to break the $100,000,000 barrier by December 31.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    34     240   54    55        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   109      72   18    16   313000

delta: $13,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,338,668
2019 balance: $17,249,850
balance: $63,834,110

yatt

Last night, I posted yatt - yet another top ten. It was a personal worst kind of top ten, but still :-) I had the tenth worst 9 bagger, loss-wise, of my career. Here are the top ten:

$-2,950,000   2018-02-22  2018-03-03  (0)
$-2,643,000   2018-02-25  2018-03-06  (1)
$-2,543,000   2018-02-24  2018-03-05  (1)
$-2,543,000   2018-02-23  2018-03-04  (1)
$-2,525,000   2018-09-21  2018-10-01  (1)
$-2,525,000   2018-09-20  2018-09-30  (1)
$-2,490,000   2018-09-16  2018-09-25  (1)
$-2,393,000   2018-09-22  2018-10-02  (1)
$-2,369,000   2018-07-27  2018-08-04  (1)
$-2,358,300   2019-08-18  2019-08-26  (2)

The numbers in parentheses are the winning sessions in those stretches. Time to right the ship.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9     5     166   36    68        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    36     213   45    57        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    66      72   15    14   397000
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    44     138   36    48        0

delta: $-153,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,885,000
2019 balance: $17,236,850
balance: $63,821,110

Bulletfest

Last night, for the first time in over four months, I fired at least ten bullets in a single MTT-R NLHE. Here are my holdings the five times I hit the felt:

9c 9h
Th 9h
Ad Jd
4c 4s
8d 8s

Needless to say, that was far too many bullets. My blue distance has now ballooned to over 2 million. That's a mere bagatelle, though, considering that last year it ballooned to over 11 :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    42     233   54    57        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    34      61   15    33        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      43    9    18        0

delta: $-800,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,588,000
2019 balance: $17,389,850
balance: $63,974,110

A $50,000 savings

When you lose $485,000 in a single session, it doesn't qualify as a good night by any stretch of the imagination. However, when you think you've lost $535,000 and discover that you've really only lost $485,000, you feel a little bit better :-) That's what happened when I did my balance reconciliation tonight. One of the four tournaments I played last night was an MTT-R NLHE, and I almost invariably do an immediate rebuy as soon as I join a tournament of that type. Last night, I forgot to do the immediate rebuy, saving myself $50,000. I fired too many bullets in that tournament, but at least I didn't fire too many + 1 :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    44000  6000       9     7     143   36    72        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    20      87   21     -        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    75     160   36    18   235000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    35      52   12    32        0

delta: $-485,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $495,580
2019 balance: $18,189,850
balance: $64,774,110

Yet another personal borscht

There were a lot of similarities between last night's session and the one before it; let me enumerate them:

1. I double-tabled for most of the session
2. I played 4 tournaments
3. I failed to make it out of the late registration period in one of them
4. I missed the money in the first three, but made the money in the final one

There was one major difference: the money I won in the final tournament didn't cover the sum of the buy ins. In fact, that money didn't even cover the buy in for that tournament. What made that tournament qualify as another personal borscht? The fact that the winnings covered a smaller percentage of the buy in than ever before - just 51.4%.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    88000 12000       9    22     265   47   118        0
MTT-B NLHE    44000  6000       9    10     166   36    90        0
MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    31     194   45     -        0
MTT-B NLHE    44000  6000       9    27     117   27    24    25700

delta: $-274,300
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $495,580
2019 balance: $18,674,850
balance: $65,259,110

Pocket queens to the rescue

Lately, I've noticed the following trends in my play:

1. I've been double-tabling
2. I've been avoiding rebuys

The jury's still out, but my gut feeling is that both of these trends are positive.

Last night, I only won one tournament of the four I played, but still managed to realize a small profit. This was largely due to the good luck of being dealt pocket queens three times in 123 hands, which is more than 5 times their expected frequency. As luck would further have it, I won all three of those hands.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    20     222   45   101        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    25      51   12     -        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    31     146   36    57        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   123      66   18     6   689000

delta: $89,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,575,668
2019 balance: $18,949,150
balance: $65,533,410

Funny funny money

The first time I used this blog post title was on March 19, 2015. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

Since I play poker for play money, that accounts for the second funny in the title of this post. What accounts for the first? The fact that due to some quirk in the algorithm PokerStars uses to determine tournament payouts, sometimes you can "make the money" in a multi-table tournament and still end up losing money.

I wrote that before I ever played a bounty tournament. As it turns out, funny funny money finishes are more likely in bounty tournaments than non-bounty ones since you generally have to win at least one bounty, in addition to making the money, in order to realize a profit.

In the bounty I played last night, the lowest payout was $175,000, but the buy in was $200,000. I made the money, but didn't win any bounties, resulting in funny funny money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    31      84   21    27        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    65     131   27    24   175000

delta: $-225,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $495,580
2019 balance: $18,860,150
balance: $65,444,410

yapf

Last night, I achieved yapf - yet another personal first. Even though personal firsts are rarer than personal bests or personal worsts, they're like prime numbers - you never run out of them :-) That makes them eligible for the "yet another" categorization. My latest personal first is that I finished an MTT-R NLHE in seventh place and failed to make the money. As you might expect, I was the Bubble Boy.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    11      80   18     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      27    6     7        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $50,638,000
2019 balance: $19,085,150
balance: $65,669,410

3 bounty hand

I've only played 30 MTT-B NLHE tournaments so far in my career, but aim to play a lot more of them in the future. They're both profitable and fun, an unbeatable combination :-) Last night, I had another 7 bounty tournament, but this one featured a 3 bounty hand. It's a big deal to win a single bounty on a hand, let alone multiple bounties. It's always a good feeling when the bounties you've won have covered your buy in; then you're playing with house money :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    30      57   15     0        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    90     143   36    16   490000

delta: $90,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $495,580
2019 balance: $19,485,150
balance: $66,069,410

If you can't raise, you can't win

There are a lot of poker axioms, and they generally have interesting corollaries. The title of this post is my latest poker axiom, illustrated by my results in last night's session. I wasn't able to raise a single time, and missed the money by a country mile. Here's the corollary:

You can't win by raising for no good reason.

Since I had no good reason to raise last night, I didn't. Since I didn't raise, I didn't make the money. Conclusion: I played as well as the cards would allow me to.

Just for fun, I scraped my poker data for other MTT NLHE tournaments where I was unable to raise a single time. Here are the numbers:

125 total number of no raise tournaments
 18 total number of no raise tournaments where I made the money

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    65      75   21    38        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,486,668
2019 balance: $19,395,150
balance: $65,979,410

House falls on man

In poker, there are no good times for a house to fall on you; there are only less bad times :-) Last night, I hit the rail when a house fell on me, beating my flush. It wasn't as bad as it could have been, though, since I'd already made the money :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    96      88   21    18   382000

delta: $182,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,686,668
2019 balance: $19,595,150
balance: $66,179,410

Streak to the peak

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, two things stand out:

1. late in the tournament, I had a six hand winning streak
2. this streak took me to my peak chip count

I'm pretty sure this is the best streak to the peak of my MTT NLHE career. It helped me take a big chunk off my blue distance.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   147      69   18     9   480000

delta: $280,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,504,668
2019 balance: $19,413,150
balance: $65,997,410

Personal first

I first used this blog post title on February 13, 2017. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

Personal worsts are relatively rare. The same is true for personal bests. The really rare beast, however, is the personal first. That's when something happens to you which has never happened to you before. By definition, a personal first can happen only once.

Last night, I had another one. For the first time ever in an NLHE tournament, I only lasted a single hand. Considering I've played in 1,659 NLHE tournaments, you can see how rare an event it was. It should never have happened at all; the problem was that I succumbed to the imp of the perverse. In a poker context, that's when you call a bet you know you shouldn't be calling; you just can't help yourself. I'd been dealt KQo (king queen offsuit), and the flop came 4s Kd 9s, giving me top pair with a decent kicker. An opponent shoved, and I called all in. Our hole cards went face up, and I saw the bad news - my opponent had been dealt 94o (nine four offsuit), and was a 73.03% favorite. His two pair held up, and I made personal poker history.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6     1      17    6     -        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    29      88   18     -        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,224,668
2019 balance: $19,133,150
balance: $65,717,410

7 bounties

Last night, the law of averages finally caught up to me in my new favorite poker variant, 6max MTT NLHE. I only lasted 13 hands, not making it out of the late registration period. My final holding was cowboys. I jumped right into a bounty tournament, not wanting to wait for the next 6max MTT NLHE or for the next MTT-R NLHE. Lady Luck was on my side this time :-) I won 7 bounties, which more than covered my buy in, and made the money to boot. Bounty tournaments are a lot of fun; I might try another tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    13      27    8     -        0
MTT-B NLHE   174000 26000       9    63     143   36    20   442000

delta: $42,000
MTT with bounties NLHE balance: $405,580
2019 balance: $19,533,150
balance: $66,117,410 

Surprising 2019 poker year factoid

When it comes to poker style and flavor combos, MTT-R NLHE is the 900 pound gorilla. I thought nothing could ever touch it in ppt (profit per tournament). However, this is not true for every observation window. My career ppt in MTT-R NLHE is a whopping $53,234, and my ppt in it for the 2019 poker year is even better - $69,774. Remarkably, however, the poker style and flavor combo I have the best ppt in for 2019 is MTT NLHE, which is clocking in at a stratospheric $133,563. I won't be going back to rebuys any time soon :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   121      58   15    10   353000

delta: $153,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,624,668
2019 balance: $19,491,150
balance: $66,075,410

A long time between 6streaks

One of the consequences of playing rebuy tournaments is that they kill off any chance of a prolonged session winning streak. The pattern which emerges is multiple small losses sprinkled here and there with huge gains. Since I haven't been playing rebuy tournaments of late, I've started a nice session winning streak. Counting last night, I've had six winning sessions in a row. Let's call that a 6streak. The last time I achieved a 6streak before last night was way back on March 14, 2017. I aim to extend it to a 7streak tonight. Making the money in 6max no-rebuy tournaments is starting to feel like taking candy from a baby :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    68      71   18     9   494000

delta: $294,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,471,668
2019 balance: $19,338,150
balance: $65,922,410

In praise of 6max

I don't think I mentioned it, but the MTT NLHE tournaments I've been playing lately are 6max; that is, each table seats at most 6 players. I learned poker at 9max tables, and 6max kind of threw me off when I first played it, but I really love it now. It almost feels like cheating :-) More accurately, it reduces the ability of players to succeed when they adopt the strategy of throwing caution to the wind. 6max has less variance than 9max, so it rewards skill more consistently. Sign me up :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    88      58   15    14   302000

delta: $102,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,177,668
2019 balance: $19,044,150
balance: $65,628,410

In the sweetness

Right now, I'm in the sweetness playing MTT NLHE. I've made the money in three straight tournaments, including last night's. I'm actually undefeated at that BI+EF ($200,000). Granted, I've only played those three tournaments at that level, but still. I'm going to ride this streak as long as it lasts :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   112      90   21    10   501000

delta: $301,000
MTT NLHE balance: $4,075,668
2019 balance: $18,942,150
balance: $65,526,410

A respite from rebuys

I'm always on the lookout for the perfect poker experience. For me, that means the poker style and flavor combination that best meets as many of the following criteria as possible:

1. it's fun to play
2. it's profitable to play
3a. it rewards skill
3b. it does not reward excessive risk-taking
4. it never gets boring

As of late, MTT NLHE is leading the pack. MTT-R NLHE meets every criterion except for 3b, but that one exception is a pretty big deal. When players can just donk off all their chips every hand, and keep rebuying, that definitely diminishes my poker enjoyment. I've been loving the lovely respite from the rebuy donkeys I've been getting by playing MTT NLHE :-) That's not particularly gracious of me, given the massive sums of play money those donkeys have provided me over the last 2 plus years, but there you have it.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6    81      85   21    16   369000

delta: $169,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $50,838,000
2019 balance: $18,641,150
balance: $65,225,410

Oops!... I did it again

Last night, I recorded my second Full Monty in a row. My record is three in a row; I'll try to equal that tonight :-) Also noteworthy was the fact that it was my first Full Monty ever in a non-rebuy tournament. I didn't want to wait for a rebuy to start, so I jumped into a $200,000 buy in 6-max MTT. I ended up as Lord High Everything Else.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-B NLHE    87000 13000       9    15     201   45    69        0
MTT   NLHE   174000 26000       6   190      66   18     2  1412000

delta: $1,112,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $50,838,000
2019 balance: $18,472,150
balance: $65,056,410

A blizzard of snowmen

One of the memorable features of last night's session was the blizzard of snowmen (pocket eights) I received. I was dealt snowmen 3 times in 82 hands, which is 8.09 times their expected frequency. Two other features tied for most memorable:

1. I recorded the 51st Full Monty of my career
2. my overall balance returned to the blue

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      52   12     4  1326000

delta: $1,126,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $50,838,000
2019 balance: $17,360,150
balance: $63,944,410

Cowboys losing streak

The hand with the largest absolute value delta last night was one I lost with pocket kings, aka cowboys. I lost 3,678 chips and hit the felt. I'm not doing well with cowboys lately; I've lost the last four times I've had them. My longest career winning streak with them is 10, and my longest losing streak is 5. As it turned out, the only premium hand I had last night was the cowboy hand, so it's not surprising that I didn't make the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      53   12    28        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,712,000
2019 balance: $16,234,150
balance: $62,818,410

yautlfftpc

Last night, I achieved yautlfftpc - yet another under the lights, freefall from the peak, century. I came within a rounding error of getting my overall balance back into the blue. The hand which propelled me to the peak was pocket rockets, and it came during the final table. That feels like it must be a first.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   129      54   12     7   528000

delta: $428,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,912,000
2019 balance: $16,434,150
balance: $63,018,410

Poxit

Last night's final hand inspired my latest neo neo - poxit. A poxit is what has befallen you when you were dealt a pocket pair, went all in with it, and hit the rail. Quite often a poxit will be due to running into a bigger pocket pair. That's what happened to me last night; I was dealt pocket nines, and lost to pocket jacks. Just for fun, I ran the numbers, and discovered that of the 946 times I've hit the rail in my MTT-R NLHE career, fully 180 were poxits. That's 19.03%, and is somewhat surprising.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    23      60   12    24        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,484,000
2019 balance: $16,006,150
balance: $62,590,410

An allowable add on

Last night, I found myself in the strange position of breaking a rule I thought I'd never break. I'd sworn I'd never add on again, and yet I did. Why? The best way to explain it is that when I made the rule, I hadn't bothered to run through all the possible scenarios which might be exceptions to it. Last night, just such a scenario arose in actual play. From long experience, I know that to have a decent chance of making the money, you need to have at least two bullets worth of chips at the end of the late registration period. At the buy in I play, that translates to 3,000 chips. You may have at most 1,500 chips in order to rebuy. Near the end of the late registration period last night, I had 1,600 chips, so rebuying was not an option. However, adding on is always a one-time option. I added on for 2,000 more chips, bringing my total to 3,600. Even though I didn't make the money, I feel adding on was the right thing to do in this situation, and I'll do it again if the situation arises again.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    36      60   12    27        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,584,000
2019 balance: $16,106,150
balance: $62,690,410

A set of sevens

Turnabout is fair play. One session after quad sevens got me under the lights, an opponent's set of sevens effectively made it lights out for me, even though it was early on. I was only dealt one premium hand all night - pocket queens - and it was on that hand (hand 7) that the set of sevens struck. My stack was crippled, and I hit the felt one hand later. I did a double rebuy, and though the second pair of bullets lasted much longer than the first, I missed the money by three country miles.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      39    8    25        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,734,000
2019 balance: $16,256,150
balance: $62,840,410

Five sevens

It's nice to hit quads. It's even nicer to hit them on the flop. Nicest of all is when you hit them on the flop, and people start betting into you :-) That's what happened to me on hand 23 last night. I didn't have to do any betting or raising; I just kept calling, until I was all in. I tripled up, and zoomed up near the top of the leader board. When I briefly made it to chip leader a couple of hands later, I couldn't help taking a poker selfie :-) As you may have guessed from the title of this post, I hit quad sevens. What's the fifth seven? The place where I finished, under the lights again.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    62      51   12     7   486000

delta: $386,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,934,000
2019 balance: $16,456,150
balance: $63,040,410

yanot

Last night, I suffered yanot - yet another no oxygen tournament. That is, another tournament where I wasn't dealt a single premium hand. The acronym doubles as a slang answer to the question, "Did you make the money?", i.e. "Yeah - not!" :-) So far I've played 105 yanot tournaments in my MTT-R NLHE career, and have only made the money in 3 of them. This is all by way of saying I'm not overly surprised or disappointed I didn't make the money last night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    29      55   12    29        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $49,548,000
2019 balance: $16,070,150
balance: $62,654,410