Saturday, December 31, 2016

Preemptive immediate service

The most memorable hand of last night's session, as is generally the case for memorable hands, was one that I lost :-) I was dealt pocket rockets (a pair of aces). An opponent acting before me bet big enough to put me all in if I called, and I did. When he turned over AJo (ace jack offsuit), I was very happy; I knew he was a big underdog. Running the numbers, he had only a 6.75% chance of winning. However, unfortunately for me, he received preemptive immediate service from the poker gods. What do I mean by that? First, here's the definition of immediate service (from my blog post of September 20, 2015):

One of my favorite poker commentators is Nick Wealthall. He provides commentary for online tournaments on PokerStars. One  phrase I really like which he uses quite often is "immediate service"; it refers to hitting a straight or flush draw as soon as possible, in other words on the turn.

With that in mind, preemptive immediate service is immediate service which comes on an even earlier street, i.e. on the flop. The flop in this case came Qh Kh Tc, giving my opponent a straight, and reducing my winning chances to a meager 5.35%. After the turn of 7d, I was officially drawing dead. Not a fun way to hit the rail, to be sure. I played one more tournament after that, to get the bad taste out of my mouth.

By the way, my prediction that last night's session would be my final one of 2016 was wrong; I'm about to play some poker right now, at 1:52pm on the last day of the year :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    44     139   36    36    75000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     8     486  114     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    18     136   36    46        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    27     535  132   177        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    75     436  114    56    48000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    27     109   30    36        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    50     365   96    93    26100


delta: $-80,900
MTT NLHE balance: $2,166,548
2016 balance: $966,866
balance: $11,667,230

Friday, December 30, 2016

Table selection fail

There are many ways to fail at poker, but one of the most shameful is to select the wrong table in the first place. Just two posts ago, I claimed that I never wanted to play another 9 max tournament in my life. What did I do last night, but play two 9 maxes out of 6 tournaments. Why? I attribute these bad decisions to two things:

1. impatience
2. greed

The 9 max tournaments always skew the pay tables to the top positions, so the up top money is gigantic. It's hard not to say to myself, "I can win some of those big bucks, while I wait for a 6 max" :-)

In the good news department, thanks to last night's overall good result, I've now topped one million play dollars in profit for the year. Tonight will likely be my last session in 2016, so I'll do my best to make it a memorable one.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    46     748  153    59    33300
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    38     129   36    30    81000
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9     4     578  117     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    25     136   36    49        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   135     447  114     7   195500
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    44     108   30    37        0


delta: $99,800
MTT NLHE balance: $2,247,448
2016 balance: $1,047,766
balance: $11,748,130

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Futile perfection

I've talked about futile perfection before, in the context of cash games. It can be achieved in MTTs, too. I know, because I did so last night :-) In 22 hands, I failed to win a single pot. A little over halfway through the session, I had the gut feeling I wasn't going to win one. There was an undercurrent of inevitability. The good thing about undercurrents of inevitability is that they work in both directions; most of the time I get the feeling I'm going to make it under the lights, I do.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    22      76   21     0        0


delta: $-50,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,147,648
2016 balance: $947,966
balance: $11,648,330

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Golden

I've now achieved the golden ratio in the only poker style and flavor I currently care about - MTT NLHE 6 max. I've now played 162 of these tournaments, and have made the money in 84 of them, for a winning ratio of 51.85%, just over the golden ratio percentage of 50. The list of styles and flavors I never want to play again is growing; here it is:

- cash game, any flavor
- Omaha, any style
- sit and go, any flavor
- KO
- spin and go
- 9 max, any style or flavor

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    67     521  132    81    41900
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    15     436  114   230        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    76     124   30    15   133000


delta: $84,900
MTT NLHE balance: $2,197,648
2016 balance: $997,966
balance: $11,698,330

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

apb: apb

This post's title is my latest neologism. It stands for "All-points bulletin: another personal best". As I've mentioned before, the longer your career, the harder it gets to achieve personal bests (with the exception of overall balance :-)) On Sunday night, on the strength of two strong money finishes, I had the best yearly style flavor subtotal of my career; here are the top ten:

year      amount   hands count  style      flavor

2016  $2,108,696  12,523   257  MTT        No Limit Hold'em
2011  $2,011,642   9,978   130  Cash game  No Limit Hold'em
2012  $1,918,252  14,612   197  Cash game  No Limit Hold'em
2014  $1,800,019  12,925   166  Cash game  No Limit Hold'em
2015  $1,467,900  20,343   421  Sit & Go   No Limit Hold'em
2012  $1,2201,50  17,458   365  Sit & Go   No Limit Hold'em
2013    $868,418  23,506   308  Cash game  No Limit Hold'em
2010    $606,842   2,041   188  Cash game  Pot Limit Hold'em
2014    $416,700   3,869    33  Sit & Go   8-Game
2011    $389,725   4,242    62  Cash game  Pot Limit Hold'em


Of course, the year isn't done yet, so this is a provisional personal best as yet :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    13     131   36     -        0
MTT   NLHE    44000  6000       9    47     195   45    26   164100
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    93     119   30     8   187000


delta: $201,100
MTT NLHE balance: $2,112,748
2016 balance: $913,066
balance: $11,613,430

Sunday, December 25, 2016

You were never shovelier

This is the fourth time I've used this blog post title. In one of the earlier posts, I asserted that calling all in doesn't count as shoving, but I want to relax that orthodoxy now in order to be able to reuse a title that tickles my fancy :-) In the second MTT I played last night, I was dealt a big slick (ace king) on the third hand. A player acting before me bet enough to put me all in if I called, and I did. My opponent turned over a pair of jacks, and we were off to the races. The board ran out without pairing my ace or my king, and I hit the rail. Running the numbers, I was a 43% dog to win the hand, which wasn't great, but wasn't that bad either, all things considered. Over time, you can't go wrong by backing your big slicks heavily; they're my second best MTT NLHE hand delta-wise, second only to pocket rockets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    44000  6000       9    18     167   36    48        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9     3     445   90     -        0


delta: $-70,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,911,648
2016 balance: $711,966
balance: $11,412,330

Saturday, December 24, 2016

The 10 minute rule

For the longest time, I was undecided on the optimal moment to join an MTT. MTTs almost always have late registration periods, so there's a wide range of times to join. I'm undecided no longer; I think the best time to join an MTT is when there are 10 minutes or less remaining in the late registration period. This gives ample opportunity for others to hit the rail before you put your first chip at risk; their buy ins are now community property :-) It's good to play with a sense of urgency, and that's certainly the case when you join an MTT late; your stack, by definition, will be one of the shorter ones. I'm doing so well lately playing MTTs I wish I'd played only MTTs all year long. That's what I'll try to do next year.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    45     111   30    38        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    77      90   21    13   113000


delta: $13,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,981,648
2016 balance: $781,966
balance: $11,482,330

Friday, December 23, 2016

Tenliness is next to quadliness

This is probably the fourth or fifth time I've used this blog post title; I never miss a chance :-) I had two memorable hands last night, which anyone would have been able to play in their sleep. On the first one, I was dealt a pair of tens, and flopped quads (hence, the title of the post). On the second one, I was dealt two diamonds, and flopped a flush. Thanks to those lucky hands, and to some skill as well, I got under the lights again. That never gets old!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   128     114   30     6   261000


delta: $211,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,968,648
2016 balance: $768,966
balance: $11,469,330

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Under the wire

Last night, I didn't start playing poker until quite late, since I was busy playing chess :-) When I switched pastimes, there were no available $50,000 BI+EF MTT NLHEs currently running, but there was a $20,000 BI+EF MTT NLHE which had a minute left in its late registration period. I got in just under the wire, and ended up making the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    58     352   84    66    36900


delta: $16,900
MTT NLHE balance: $1,757,648
2016 balance: $557,966
balance: $11,258,330

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Under the lights

Last night, I got under the lights (i.e., made the final table) again. I've now made the final table in 7 MTT NLHEs, and all of them happened this year. It was my third second place finish. I've never had a first place, but came awfully close this time; the heads up battle lasted a marathon 90 hands. When heads up started, I had just 28% of the chips in play. At one point, I took the chip lead, but it was short-lived. On the strength of this great result, my overall balance topped 11 play million again.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   295     116   30     2   511000


delta: $461,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,740,748
2016 balance: $541,066
balance: $11,241,430

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

40 hands in the wilderness

You know you've joined a tournament much too early when you can play 40 hands, hit the rail, and not achieve an official place (since the late registration period still hasn't ended). That's what happened to me in the second MTT I entered on Friday night. The next time I'm in the position of needing to wait a while before I join, I'll just play some chess in the interim :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    36     127   36    44        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    40      69   18     -        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,279,748
2016 balance: $80,066
balance: $10,780,430

Friday, December 16, 2016

The fingerfehler that wasn't

I've had my share of poker fingerfehlers over the years. Last night, I had my first faux fingerfehler :-) Let me explain. Every tournament on PokerStars has an associated tournament lobby; each lobby lists the current stacks of all the remaining players in the tournament, in descending order, followed by the names of all the players who are out of the tournament, along with their places and any prize money they were awarded at the time of their exit. Each lobby also includes a lot of other important information, such as the total prize pool, the total number of players who have entered the tournament, the buy in, the entry fee, the payouts, the average stack size, etc. I like to keep a pretty close eye on the lobby as I play; it's important to know when the money bubble is about to burst, in order to be able to adjust one's play appropriately.

For some reason, when I entered the first tournament of the session last night, I inadvertently brought up the lobby of a different tournament entirely - without realizing, of course. I was shocked and chagrined when I saw that the total amount of play money each player had put on the line was a full million. I thought I'd put a million on the line by mistake. When I brought up my current balance, it didn't reflect such a hit, and I was quite relieved. I soon realized that the mistake I'd made was that I hadn't brought up the correct lobby, and rectified that right away.

The thing is, a small part of me was disappointed that I hadn't made the mistake of putting a million on the line! A small part of me wants to gamble really big; I've got to keep an eye on that :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    59     109   30    26    73000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   103      90   21    11   129000


delta: $102,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,379,748
2016 balance: $180,066
balance: $10,880,430

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Bubble boy

Perhaps nothing dramatizes the contrast between sit and gos and MTTs as much as the difference between how easy (or difficult) it is to bubble them. As a refresher, bubbling a tournament is when you come in one place out of the money. So far in my career, I've played 1,710 sit and gos, and have bubbled 352 of them. That's over 20%. Of the 550 MTTs I've played, I've only bubbled 3 of them; that's a little over one half of one percent. Of course, I wouldn't be talking about bubbling if it wasn't topical :-) I bubbled the second MTT I entered last night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   103     108   30    30    72000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    76      84   21    22        0


delta: $-28,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,277,748
2016 balance: $78,066
balance: $10,778,430

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Lord High Everything Else

I haven't played poker since last Friday, and am really missing it. There were good reasons for this - weekend activities, the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football, and an annual get-together with ex-colleagues last night. Tonight, nothing's going to stop me from playing :-) I had my 10th best session ever on Friday, bringing my 2016 balance back into the black. I was Lord High Everything Else in the third and final tournament I entered, ending up in 2nd place. It was the sixth MTT NLHE final table of my career, and third MTT NLHE 6 max final table.

Following the lead of Ted Williams in his 1941 season, when he batted .406, I'm not going to sit out the rest of the year to protect my profit. I'm going to play out the string! Not only that, I'm going to do it at the $50,000 BI+EF stakes. I'm dancing with the one who brung me :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    34     123   30     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    96     110   30    29    74000
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   187     111   30     2   489000


delta: $413,000
MTT NLHE balance: $1,305,748
2016 balance: $106,066
balance: $10,806,430

Friday, December 9, 2016

9 max considered harmful

I took a brief hiatus from playing poker in the middle of the week, in order to indulge my chess jones :-) I'm currently playing online chess on the lichess site, and the experience is far superior to the experience on the chess.com site. To sum it up: better graphics, better interface, better responsiveness, and no ads.

Although I've compared 6 max to 9 max before, I didn't take to heart just how glaring the profit differential is for me. Here's the side by side comparison for MTT NLHE, with the huge outlier removed from the 9 max result set:

           count     average 

 $450,212    143   $3,148.34     6 max
$-413,064    162  $-2,549.78     9 max


I need to "just say no" to 9 max. Here's my revised list of table selection criteria:

1. only MTT NLHE
2. only tournaments without inflated money up top
3. only 6 max
4. only tournaments with a BI+EF >= $50,000

I threw the fourth criterion in there to increase my chances of getting my 2016 balance back into the black.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    38     406   96   143        0
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    26     239   63    84        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   124     354   84    18    83600


delta: $23,600
MTT NLHE balance: $892,748
2016 balance: $-306,934
balance: $10,393,430

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

10,000 hands

Recently, I hit another milestone -  10,000 MTT NLHE hands played this calendar year. I'll try to double or triple that total next year. That shouldn't be too hard to do, considering that MTT NLHE is my flavor poker style and flavor to play :-) Almost half of the 10,000 hands were played in massives, but massives seem to have gone the way of the dodo bird. That's just as well, since they didn't have enough money up top. I wouldn't mind seeing some $10,000 BI+EF MTT NLHEs, but those seem to have gone the way of the dodo bird as well.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    50     283   72    94        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6   107     408   96    41    59900


delta: $19,900
MTT NLHE balance: $869,148
2016 balance: $-330,534
balance: $10,369,830

Monday, December 5, 2016

The gift flush

Of the many bad beats that are out there, one of the most infuriating is what I call the gift flush.  That's when the board runs out to a four flush, and one of your opponent's hole cards happens to match that suit. It certainly feels like the poker gods are out to get you when that happens. It happened to me in the final hand I played last night. To add insult to injury, one of the cards to the four flush was a queen, giving me trips. I know not to complain too strenuously, however; I've been on the good side of gift flushes plenty of times myself :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    57     272   72    63    36000
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    29     236   63    98        0


delta: $-4,000
MTT NLHE balance: $849,248
2016 balance: $-350,434
balance: $10,349,930

Sunday, December 4, 2016

40 million wagered

The session before last, I surpassed the 40 million mark in play dollars wagered playing tournaments this calendar year. The most I'd ever wagered in a previous year was 24,447,000 last year. Here's how the numbers break down by style and flavor:

             count  style       flavor

$32,105,000    576  Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em
 $2,614,000    231  MTT         No Limit Hold'em
 $2,204,200    101  KO poker    No Limit Hold'em
 $1,625,000    118  MTT         8-Game
 $1,293,000     38  Sit & Go    8-Game
   $230,000     23  Spin & Go   No Limit Hold'em
    $15,000      3  MTT         Limit Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball
     $5,000      1  MTT         HORSE

$40,091,200


I wish I'd skipped sit and gos, KOs, and spin and gos completely. That's what I'll try to do next year.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    53     239   63    29    45000


delta: $25,000
MTT NLHE balance: $853,248
2016 balance: $-346,434
balance: $10,353,930

Saturday, December 3, 2016

The money up top

When I was playing massives (my nickname for MTT NLHEs with a buy in plus entry fee of a mere 1,000 play dollars, nicknamed such because of the massive fields they attract), the money "up top" (i.e., the payout for coming in first) wasn't massive at all. For instance, the largest field of any massive I ever played in was 1,464 players, but the money up top was a paltry $79,238. Puppy food! When I started playing higher BI+EF (buy in plus entry fee) MTT NLHEs, my eyes grew "as big as saucers" (as the saying goes) when I saw how big the money up top could grow to be. For example, the largest field of any $20,000 BI+EF MTT NLHE I've ever played in was 893 players, and the money up top was a whopping $2,470,600. I wanted some of that action! The trouble is, the bigger the percentage of the total prize pool the money up top represents, the worse the scenario is for a steady and skillful player like me. Why? For the simple reason that, to inflate the money up top, money must be stolen from the lower places in the payout structure. That's how you can get situations where players can actually lose money by "making the money". I decided to take a good hard look at my results in the $20,000 BI+EF MTT NLHEs, and the upshot couldn't be clearer - I must stay away from the big up top money tournaments at all costs. Since I make the money at better than a 40% clip, I want every money finish to actually earn me some money. For whatever reason, the tournaments on PokerStars with a buy in of $16,500 and an entry fee of $3,500 have huge money up top, and the lowest "paying" places actually lose players money. The tournaments on PokerStars with a buy in of $18,000 and an entry fee of $2,000 have much more modest money up top, and every money place actually earns players money. Those are the tournaments I'll focus on from here on in.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    58     651  135    52    31100
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    95     315   81    10    85000
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    30     556  117     -        0
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    56     274   72    65    32000


delta: $68,100
MTT NLHE balance: $828,248
2016 balance: $-371,434
balance: $10,328,930

Friday, December 2, 2016

Waiting for my rocket to come

The song "Curbside Prophet", by Jason Mraz, begins with these words:

I’m just a curbside prophet
with my hand in my pocket
and I’m waiting for my rocket to come


I know just how that feels; when I play MTT NLHEs, I'm waiting for my rocket to come, too. By rocket, I mean a really big cash. The biggest cash I ever had in an MTT NLHE was for $865,600, on September 29th. All I need is one more rocket like that in order to ensure myself of a profit in 2016. I'm waiting :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    11     382   81     0        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6     7     198   48     0        0
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    31     232   63   116        0
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    51     508  108    99    18400
MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    65     426   90    51    24600


delta: $-57,000
MTT NLHE balance: $760,148
2016 balance: $-439,534
balance: $10,260,830

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Deadline

Today is December 1st. Counting today, I have a maximum of 31 sessions left in the year. Within that time, I'm going to do everything in my power to get my 2016 balance back into the black. To that end, I'm going to include my 2016 balance in the coda of every post, to keep it in the forefront of my mind. I've never had a calendar year where I didn't make a profit, and I don't intend to start now :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    16500  3500       9    40     631  135    50    30100
MTT   NLHE    18000  2000       9    92     270   72    14    68000
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    85     340   84    67    35700


delta: $73,800
MTT NLHE balance: $817,148
2016 balance: $-382,534
balance: $10,317,830