Saturday, July 31, 2010

Card dead

Last night, I just didn't get any hands worth speaking of. My stack took a slow and steady trip south. I hit the felt on one of my best hands of the night -- a big slick which was still only an ace high when all the community cards had been dealt, and lost to a lowly pair of nines.

I don't feel badly about losing my whole starting stack last night; if you don't get cards to work with, you can't do much, no matter how good you are. I was disciplined enough not to go on tilt, and by folding as early and as often as I did, I hung around longer than I otherwise would have and gave myself a better chance of turning things around. However, it just wasn't meant to be. You have to expect such nights to happen every now and then, if you play enough.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 56 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 7 times while in big blind (42%)
- 6 out of 8 times while in small blind (75%)
- 23 out of 41 times in other positions (56%)
- a total of 32 out of 56 (57%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 5 (20%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-40,000
balance: $852,350

Friday, July 30, 2010

A new tool

I've added a new tool to my bag of tricks -- checking on the river. I think of it as the poker equivalent of the adage "Nothing is often a smart thing to do, and always the right thing to say". Here are some good reasons to check on the river:

1. if you have a monster hand, you'll be in position to check-raise very strongly if anyone dares to bet. People who've already put down additional chips on the river have a harder time laying down their hands, so you can end up with more chips.

2. if you have a marginal hand, you have the option of simply folding if anyone bets. Betting on the river with a marginal hand doesn't have any upside.

3. if you have a strong hand, but think there's an outside chance you're beaten, you can minimize your risk by checking.

My most memorable play last night was when I laid down a flush; three of a kind was showing on the board, and I was pretty sure my remaining opponent had a full house. He did; I know this because he showed his cards at the end.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 67 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 10 times while in big blind (80%)
- 8 out of 10 times while in small blind (80%)
- 33 out of 47 times in other positions (70%)
- a total of 49 out of 67 (73%)
Pots won at showdown - 9 of 18 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $20,686
balance: $892,350

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Out of neutral

Last night I finally got some traction, and had an excellent session. There were some aggressive players at the table, and I was able to use their aggression against them, eventually. The hand that really made my night, I was dealt an ace and king of spades (aka big slick), hit a pair of kings on the flop, and won a pot of $81,800 with them. I called it a night after another couple of won pots.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 23 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 3 times while in big blind (66%)
- 3 out of 3 times while in small blind (100%)
- 11 out of 17 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 16 out of 23 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $75,700
balance: $871,664

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Due diligence

Last night was another wash.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
- 12 out of 14 times while in big blind (85%)
- 11 out of 14 times while in small blind (78%)
- 39 out of 48 times in other positions (81%)
- a total of 62 out of 76 (81%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 16 (25%)
Pots won without showdown - 11

The fact that I broke even with such a lousy showdown percentage shows that even though I wasn't playing well, I was actually playing pretty well. One of those conundrums :-)

Even though poker is a game, it doesn't pay to play it lazily. One hand I lost made me realize I was playing a little lazily. I flopped trip 4s and slow-played the hand, "knowing" I'd won it. I didn't bother to check on the river whether there were straight or flush draws on the board and lost to a straight. Luckily for me, the winner didn't have a lot of chips at the start of the hand, so it didn't hurt me too much when I forced him to go all in.

delta: $265
balance: $795,964

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Im Westen nichts Neues

Last Friday night's session, nothing much happened; hence, the title of this post. It's the title of a book by Erich Maria Remarque; you may be more familiar with the title of the English translation, "All Quiet on the Western Front".

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 81 hands and saw flop:
- 11 out of 11 times while in big blind (100%)
- 11 out of 12 times while in small blind (91%)
- 42 out of 58 times in other positions (72%)
- a total of 64 out of 81 (79%)
Pots won at showdown - 9 of 24 (37%)
Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $1,129
balance: $795,699

Friday, July 23, 2010

The experience paradox

The more experience I gain playing poker, the better I play against experienced players. However, I may actually play somewhat worse against inexperienced players than I did when I had less experience. Inexperienced players are tough to play against; they don't know what they don't know, and therefore can make really bold moves with impunity, not knowing how bold they're actually being!

In last night's session, I folded several hands early on that I would have won had I stayed in the hand. However, I folded based on the hands which my opponents appeared to be representing by their betting patterns, whether or not they were actually doing so purposely. I consoled myself with the knowledge that it's much better to fold and be wrong than not to fold and be wrong.

My patience was eventually rewarded, and I ended the night on the plus side of the ledger. My last hand, I was dealt two kings and two more showed up on the board. I won a modest pot of $12,800 with them.

delta: $22,438
balance: $794,570

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Down escalator

Last night, after a brief rise, my stack took a slow, steady, and inexorable ride down to the bare felt. I honestly don't feel I played that badly. My one failing was going after too many flush and straight draws. I didn't have any precipitous drops, but I didn't have near enough rises.

delta: $-40,000
balance: $772,132

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Better never than late

For the most part I played well last night; however, I made a disastrous series of decisions on one hand which put me into a big hole I couldn't climb out of. The first bad decision was playing it at all! I was dealt A 8 offsuit. Obviously, an 8 is a weak kicker. I should have been disciplined enough to fold the hand before the flop; I wasn't. The flop came Td Ac 2s. My second bad decision was staying in the hand when it seemed clear that someone else also had an ace, and very likely had a better kicker. The turn was a 5, and the river was an 8. I certainly would have folded the hand if I hadn't hit for two pair on the river, but somehow I thought I'd actually caught up at the end. I lost to a better two pair; my opponent had been dealt A 10 offsuit. My stack took a huge hit; I dropped from $41k to $13K in one fell swoop. I didn't go on tilt, but my attempts to build my stack back up were hampered by not enough opponents remaining at the table, and by one of the remaining opponents playing notoriously slowly.

The poker lesson I learned tonight stands a popular aphorism on its head, and can be simply stated as "Better never than late". By this I mean it's better never to have backed a weak hand at all, than to have it improved on the river. Weak hands improved on the river lose more often than not.

delta: $-18,900
balance: $812,132

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Dream freeroll

Last night, similar to Saturday night, I was basically back where I'd started after 70+ hands. Unlike Saturday night, I finally caught a monster hand. It became a dream freeroll on the turn, as I'd made an ace high straight, and there were no pairs or flush draws on the board. I didn't go all in right away; I just kept reraising until I was all in. The pot I won was worth $86,592.

I also hit another milestone, as I'm now over $800K for the first time.

delta: $46,592
balance: $831,032

Monday, July 19, 2010

Hot and cold running hunches

My win streak came to an end on Saturday night. I didn't take too bad a hit, however. My stats were decent, but not spectacular. I would almost have broken even except for two things:

1. I had a minor case of what I'll call "streak tilt". When I'd already played over 60 hands and was only down about $2k, I should have just called it a night; however, I wanted to preserve my winning streak, so I kept playing.

2. For sentimental reasons, I bet too much pre-flop on a marginal hand, since it had been so good to me very recently. I was dealt a pair of fours, which had been one of my "Magnificent Seven" hands; I'd had a correct hunch in the "Magnificent" session that it would hit for trips, and tried to tell myself I was having the same hunch again. This time around, it didn't hit.

delta: $-9,500
balance: $784,440

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Flamboyant Cuttlefish

Last night, contrary to my expectation of not being able to sustain the big gains I've been enjoying recently, I did just that. The hand that made my night was a set of kings; I won a huge pot of $103,800 with them. I was up head to head with the big stack at the table, and neither of us backed down. I ended up happily going all in. It was clear his mistake was a failure of imagination; I've made such mistakes often enough myself to know.

A couple of weeks ago I watched a really entertaining nature program on public television; it was focused on cuttlefish, and how the vast majority of the species of cuttlefish in the world use their ability to change color for purposes of camouflage. However, there is one species of cuttlefish which uses its ability to change color brazenly, as it broadcasts its presence to the world; appropriately, this species is called the flamboyant cuttlefish. The show highlighted the efforts of a marine biologist from Australia to try to explain this bizarre behavior; his hypothesis was that flamboyant cuttlefish are poisonous, and use color as a way to warn predators not to eat them. He was able to prove his hypothesis to be correct.

I didn't make the connection between flamboyant cuttlefish and big raises in poker right away, but since I did, I've become convinced of its aptness. A big raise is a way to tell your opponents, "Back off -- my hand is poison to you". Luckily for me, last night my flamboyance was mistaken for a bluff, and I extracted the maximum value I could from the hand.

delta: $63,600
balance: $793,940

Friday, July 16, 2010

Seeing the finish line

Last night session's was another winning one; not spectacular like Wednesday night's, but solid nonetheless. In the last four sessions, I've won nearly as much play money as the amount I currently have left to reach my goal of one million play dollars. If I could keep up this blistering pace, I'd hit the million mark in five more sessions, just over a week from now.

I'm not kidding myself that I can realistically keep up such a pace; it's most probable that I can't. However, I fully expect to hit my goal before the summer is over.

The natural question that arises when a finish line comes into sight is what to do once it's crossed. You needn't fret that I'll stop posting entries to this blog, though; I have another poker-based goal all lined up!

delta: $36,176
balance: $730,340

Thursday, July 15, 2010

The Magnificent Seven

I had the best session of my poker career last night. It was only seven hands long, but I'm already calling them "The Magnificent Seven"! If you play poker long enough, you're likely to have a night like this eventually. Needless to say, it feels absolutely awesome!

hand 1: my two pair of aces and jacks won a pot of $5,800 without a showdown
hand 2: I folded a pair of sevens on a flop of Qs Jd 8c
hand 3: I folded 7s 3s on a turn of Td after a flop of 2c Ks 3c
hand 4: my two pair of aces and queens won a pot of $99,300
hand 5: my full house of fours full of sevens won a pot of $82,700
hand 6: my ace high straight won a pot of $18,500
hand 7: I folded my pair of tens before the flop

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 7 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
- 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
- 4 out of 5 times in other positions (80%)
- a total of 6 out of 7 (85%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $115,800
balance: $694,164

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

First at-bat home run

Last night, my very first hand was one of those lucky ones literally anyone in the world could play successfully. I flopped a straight, and no flush draw or pair appeared on the board. A real high roller stayed in the hand to the bitter end, even when I bet $10K on the river. I ended up winning a pot worth $61,800. If all I cared about was my ultimate goal, I'd have ended my night right there, but I also play for enjoyment. My stack gently descended back down to earth, but I still ended the session with a nice gain.

delta: $10,700
balance: $578,364

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Rebound

On Saturday night, I had a nice rebound from Friday night's disaster. I played tighter, folded early and often, and made absolutely sure I didn't go on tilt. The end result was that I had my fifth most successful session ever.

My biggest hand of the night, I won a pot worth $74,800 with an eight high straight.

delta: $64,050
balance: $567,664

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Epic tilt

Last night's session was the worst of my poker career. After hitting the felt at the first table I joined, I completely lost perspective and made some incredibly stupid decisions. It took me more than an hour to hit the felt at the first table. It only took a single hand at the second table! And at the third table, it only took about three hands. Technically, I didn't actually hit the felt at the third table; however, my crazed betting of the final hand left me so severely crippled that I just called it a night (approximately 5 hands too late!).

Thinking back over the debacle, I can sort of understand how things could have gone so horribly wrong. I was "card dead" for most of the night, and therefore I backed the few good hands I finally did get much too strongly. In other words, my patience was completely worn out. I tried to make things up in a hurry, which is a very bad idea. Baseball players strike out much more often when they're trying to hit a home run than they do when they're just trying to get a base hit. Similarly, poker players take the biggest hits to their stacks when they're trying too aggressively to win a huge pot.

In a nutshell, I was classically on tilt. The most basic poker thought processes don't even occur when you're on tilt. The one hand I played at the second table was a perfect example of this. I was dealt ace queen offsuit. The flop came 2 4 3 rainbow, the turn was a 5, and the river was a 3. So I'd made a 5 high straight on the turn, but in my addled, incapacitated state, I couldn't formulate the realization I would have made if I'd had even a single functioning poker brain cell left in my head at the time -- namely, that I had the lowest straight, and anyone continuing to bet almost certainly had a higher one. That was indeed the case. A $40,000 lesson! As Benjamin Franklin said, "Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other".

delta: $-117,184
balance: $503,614

Friday, July 9, 2010

Imagining

Poker is a game of imagining. You have to be able to imagine what your hand might become, and you also have to be able to imagine what hands your opponents might have. Of course, poker is also a game of probabilities, but imagination and probability have a symbiotic relationship. The less likely something is to happen, the harder it is too imagine, and vice versa.

The hardest hand for me to imagine an opponent having is pocket rockets. I never give that possibility enough credence. That's obviously a failing, since I've been dealt that hand my share of the time. Last night, I took a big hit early on in the session when my pair of kings lost to those selfsame aces. I took an even bigger, crippling hit later on due to another failure of imagination; my straight lost to a flush. I hit the felt shortly afterwards.

However, I have no difficulty imagining I'll do better tonight!

delta: $-35,993
balance: $620,798

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Three big hands

Last night I didn't have a double-up hand, but did have three big hands which together enabled me to double my starting stack. Unaided, I can only remember two of the hands -- a straight and trips. Let me consult the archives...

big hand #1: I won a pot of $30,800 with an ace high flush
big hand #2: I won a pot of $28,200 with a ten high straight
big hand #3: I won a pot of $22,800 with three of a kind, sixes

I realize it's not important that I remember specific hands; what's important is that I make the right decisions. The decisions should become so second nature that it becomes quite a simple matter to forget the hands themselves!

delta: $43,079
balance: $656,791

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Doubling up

When I'm done playing for the night, I often use an Excel bar chart to get a pictorial representation of the size of my chip stack over the course of the session. Of course, since I don't save the history for every hand, it's not as accurate a picture as it could be, but it still gives me an excellent outline of the night's play.

Looking at the bar chart from last Thursday's session, I can summarize it as follows: mini-porpoise, double up, mini-porpoise. This shows the importance of being patient. If you can only be patient enough, opportunities to double up will eventually come your way. Of course, patience is best evaluated with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight; if for some reason you lose a hand that you thought you should have doubled up on, then hindsight accuses you of having been impatient. Since it's been nearly a week and I forget, let me review the hand where I doubled up and see whether or not I was actually patient ...

Ah, yes, now I remember. Another stealth two pair! My love it/hate it hand. It can be one of the most dangerous hands to play, but also one of the most profitable, when it wins. I'll give myself the benefit of the doubt, and declare myself to have been patient :-)

delta: $41,200
balance: $613,712

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Down 1/5th

Last night I again lost my full starting stack of $40,000 at the first table I joined, as I had the two previous nights. I didn't recoup any chips at the second table, but didn't lose another full starting stack either. I'm sure those three sessions are my worst three in a row ever. Let me check...

Yes, indeed. Total lost in those three sessions: $139,667. That represents a percentage loss of 19.6% of my balance. 20%, for all intents and purposes. 1/5th! Hence the title of this post. However, when I was looking over the numbers, I realized that I'd had an even larger percentage loss just over a year ago, even though it was smaller in the absolute. On May 21, 22, and 26 of last year, I lost a combined total of $99,300, for a whopping percentage loss of 29%!

It's no coincidence that I switched from the $100/$200 tables to the $5/$10 tables soon after that 29% loss. I got scared off by the volatility. That won't happen this time, though. I'm not scared anymore. I'm getting used to the big swings!

delta: $-48,000
balance: $572,512