Tuesday, October 30, 2018

The land of the fives

Last night, in the only tournament I entered, I finished 28th of 63. That means I hit the 55th percentile. To be precise, the percentile was 55.55... . In other words, the land of the fives :-) That statistical oddity was the only bright spot of the session. I exited the tournament in a painful way, getting 5 outed on the river. My blue distance is fast approaching $11,000,000. I'm still putting even money on finishing 2018 in the black, however.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      63   15    28        0


delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $31,498,500
2018 balance: $-1,883,000
balance: $43,630,260

Monday, October 29, 2018

Double seventy-five

Last night, I played about as well as you can play without making a profit. In the one tournament I entered, I played 75 hands, and did better than 76.19% of the entrants. There were two cruel features of the session:

1. I missed the money by a narrow margin
2. on the final hand of the night, I was a 68.18% favorite after the turn, but it wasn't meant to be

The good news is that I'm playing well.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    75      84   18    20        0


delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $31,798,500
2018 balance: $-1,583,000
balance: $43,930,260

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Double double sixty

When you're in a poker slump, as I now am, it helps to know that you've actually been playing well. I have various ways of determining this. One of the most reliable is looking at the percentile I reached in a tournament; whenever I finish at or above the 60th percentile, I know I was playing well. Another good indicator is lasting for a long time. Of course, that begs the question: what's a good definition of long time? :-) I'm picking 60 again. Any time I last 60 or more hands, I feel I must have been doing something right.

Last night, I achieved both of these goals in both tournaments I entered. You could call that a double double sixty :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      60   12    22        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      57   12    15        0


delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,148,500
2018 balance: $-1,233,000
balance: $44,280,260

Friday, October 26, 2018

Loss portfolio

Lately, I've been padding my loss portfolio. That isn't as bad as it sounds :-) As I've remarked before, weathering downswings makes you a more resilient player. I've now lost 7 sessions in a row, which is a far cry from my personal worst of 12, but is still nothing to sneeze at. In that interval, I've lost an aggregate of $1,619,000, good for 27th place on my career list of losingest 7 session stretches. My blue distance is within whispering distance of $10,000,000 once again.

I just realized I've achieved a blog first - I've written a blog post without playing again after already blogging about my most recent session. The reason I didn't play online poker last night was that I was too busy playing online chess :-)

Thursday, October 25, 2018

yaw

This is the second time I've used this blog post title. The first was on April 6 of this year; here's what I had to say:

Last night, I had yaw - yet another whaleback. I missed the money by three places. I played well, had fun, and outlasted a bunch of the usual suspects. I feel a big payday heading my way :-)

Almost everything applies equally well to last night's session; the only difference is that I finished well out of the money this time.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      56   12    27        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,498,500
2018 balance: $-883,000
balance: $44,630,260

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

yafftp

On Monday night, I suffered yafftp - yet another freefall from the peak. The rate this happens remains remarkably consistent over time, hovering around 32%. As I've mentioned before, this statistic has no correlation with making or missing the money, so it's actually a pretty silly one to look at. It's one of the standbys I use when I can't figure out what else to write about a session :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    29      65   15    40        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,648,500
2018 balance: $-733,000
balance: $44,780,260

Monday, October 22, 2018

First hand foldfest

Last night's session had only one interesting feature -  a foldfest on the first hand. I was in the big blind, and there were five other players at the table. All five of them folded, so I picked up the smallest pot possible, making a profit of one small blind (10 chips). It felt like a phantom hand, since I didn't have to act at all. Unfortunately, that was the highlight of the session :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      75   15    33        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,748,500
2018 balance: $-633,000
balance: $44,880,260

Sunday, October 21, 2018

yako

Last night, I suffered yako - yet another kings out. In other words, I was dealt pocket kings, put all my money on them, and lost. Three of us went to showdown. Before the flop, I was a 58.6% favorite. After the flop, I was a 75.08% favorite. After the turn, I was a 4.76% dog. I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt pocket queens, and spiked a queen on the turn. This was the 14th kings out of my MTT-R NLHE career. I'm sure there'll be many more, but that's the nature of the poker beast :-) I actually wouldn't have it any other way.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      73   15    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    42      75   15    27        0


delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,948,500
2018 balance: $-433,000
balance: $45,080,260

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Mr. Showdown

As I've mentioned before, when I can't find enough positives in the most recent session to write about, I tend to widen the lens and write about positive trends over longer periods of time. Thursday night's losing session has persuaded me to adopt this tactic once again. I'd like to focus on how I've performed at showdown during my MTT-R NLHE career. Here are the numbers:

showdowns won:     2,982
showdowns lost:    2,644
total showdowns:   5,626
chips won:    22,108,397
chips lost:   11,527,485
chip delta:   10,580,912

The chart of my chip delta over time is a pleasure to see; steadily growing, with no end in sight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    23      81   18    48        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      48   12     9   281000


delta: $-169,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,348,500
2018 balance: $-33,000
balance: $45,480,260

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Fumes

After last night's session, my 2018 balance is officially running on fumes. My extrapolated profit for the year is at its lowest positive point, a mere $171,172. It'll be touch and go whether I can actually end the year in the black. I'm reserving the right to play sit and gos in November, in hopes of a big cash infusion.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    10      62   15    30        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,517,500
2018 balance: $136,000
balance: $45,649,260

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

A counterfeit house

I first used this blog post title on October 29, 2014, back in my cash game days. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

Last night, on the final hand of the session, I lost the most money I've ever lost with a full house - $52,697. My problem was that I got there on the turn, and was so convinced I had a lock on the hand that I didn't pay attention to the river card. It paired the board, counterfeiting my full house, but I didn't notice. The board was showing two pairs, a very dangerous situation which I completely missed.

Something somewhat similar happened last night. I didn't make a mistake this time, but still lost the hand. I was dealt pocket threes, flopped a full house of threes full of queens, and shoved. I got one caller, who had flopped trip queens. I was a 77.07% favorite after the flop, and an 84.09% favorite after the turn. Unfortunately, the river card paired the turn card, counterfeiting my full house and giving my opponent a better one. What can I say? I got my money in good.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    30      59   12    41        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    21      59   12    31        0


delta: $-500,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,617,500
2018 balance: $236,000
balance: $45,749,260

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

An unusual ofer

Casting about for an angle for this post, I stumbled upon an unusual ofer. Last night, I was dealt a pocket pair six times - twice in the first tournament I entered, and four times in the second. I failed to win a single one of those hands. That's definitely unusual. The good news is that I was still able to make a profit.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      72   15    33        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    75      45    9     8   424000


delta: $74,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,117,500
2018 balance: $736,000
balance: $46,249,260

Monday, October 15, 2018

404 found

In my "A tale of two 404s" post on July 6, 2012, I explained the meaning of a 404:

Anyone who's done enough web surfing is familiar with the HTTP 404 error, which means "Page not found".

On Saturday night, I found a new meaning for it, in an online poker context - "$404,000 found" :-) I got under the lights again, and laddered up two rungs from 8th to 6th.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    95      48   12     6   554000


delta: $404,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $34,043,500
2018 balance: $662,000
balance: $46,175,260

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Flopping the moon

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the final one. I lost a hand I thought was a sure thing. It was so disorienting, I momentarily forgot that I'd made the money. I was dealt QTo (queen ten offsuit), and flopped a king high straight. In other words, I flopped the moon. The problem with flopping the moon is that you'll lose to opponents who turn the stars :-) That's what happened to me, when my opponent hit his flush draw on the turn.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      77   18    17   297000


delta: $47,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,639,500
2018 balance: $258,000
balance: $45,771,260

Friday, October 12, 2018

The truth about bullets

One of the fascinating things about poker is that it insists on revealing its truths to you, whether or not you have the wisdom to listen :-) Many of its truths are so simple, it's hard to believe them. Let me show you what I mean. Here's the current breakdown of my MTT-R NLHE results, by number of bullets fired:

bullets  count        profit

      2    182   $43,244,500
      4     97    $9,130,000
      3    191    $2,589,000
     12      1       $10,000
      1      2     $-100,000
     10      1     $-500,000
     13      1     $-650,000
     11      4   $-1,237,000
      5     85   $-2,222,000
      6     26   $-2,534,000
      8      8   $-2,937,000
      9     10   $-3,012,000
      7     34   $-8,189,000 


The lesson to be learned from this is simplicity itself - never fire more than 4 bullets per tournament, ever. Period, full stop, the end. You'd think this would be simple advice to follow, but it's not. Last night I fired 7 bullets, and made a killing. It's just so tough to quit before the late registration period ends. Yet, that's what I'm going to train myself to do. The truth about bullets is that you want other people to be firing them, not you :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   141      54   12     3  1997000


delta: $1,647,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,592,500
2018 balance: $211,000
balance: $45,724,260

Thursday, October 11, 2018

A fairly common hybrid

I've talked frequently about freefalls from the peak in this blog. I've also talked about slickouts. Tonight I'm going to talk about hybrid tournaments which contain both a freefall from the peak and a slickout. I experienced one such tournament last night. I thought they'd be very rare, but when I ran the numbers, I discovered they're not as rare as I thought; this hybrid has now occurred 22 times in my MTT-R NLHE career.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    32      53   12    32        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $31,945,500
2018 balance: $-1,436,000
balance: $44,077,260

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Stopping the bitch

The most I've ever lost in consecutive losing sessions is $2,950,000; that was a nine session stretch earlier this year. Any time you can stop a losing streak is good :-) Last night, I stopped a three session losing streak during which I lost $1,150,000. Stopping a losing streak of over a million play dollars definitely qualifies as stopping the bitch. Here's hoping I can add to my one session winning streak tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    70      53   12    10   297000


delta: $147,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,045,500
2018 balance: $-1,336,000
balance: $44,177,260

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

A thoroughly mediocre session

I've just been trying for about an hour to come up with an angle for this blog post, and have failed miserably. Therefore, what can I do but write about how mediocre last night's session was? Only a thoroughly mediocre session could stand statistical scrutiny for that long and come away unscathed :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      63   15    33        0


delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $31,898,500
2018 balance: $-1,483,000
balance: $44,030,260

Monday, October 8, 2018

The 10 million dollar man

Friends and neighbors, I'm now a 10 million dollar man, blue distance-wise. That's a long way to fall from the peak. Speaking of falling from peaks, last night I had the longest freefall from the peak of my MTT-R NLHE career - 37 hands. I won the first hand and it was all downhill from there.

I have to admit, I'm toying with the idea of returning to sit and gos in November, a move I've dubbed a poker Movember in this blog. It would be a desperation play to try to get my 2018 balance back in the black, and I'll do my best to avoid succumbing to that temptation :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      67   15    47        0


delta: $-450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,198,500
2018 balance: $-1,183,000
balance: $44,330,260

Sunday, October 7, 2018

You were never shovelier

This is probably the fourth or fifth time I've used this blog post title. It's definitely one of my favorites. Last night, in the second tournament I entered, I was dealt a pocket pair in 4 of the 48 hands I played. I shoved three of them preflop. The third shove did me in; I was a 59.82% favorite before the flop, a 3.10% dog after the flop, and was drawing close to dead after the turn; I had no chance of winning the pot, and a 4.76% chance of chopping it. At least I can say I got my money in good :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      78   18    42        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      77   18    41        0


delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,648,500
2018 balance: $-733,000
balance: $44,780,260

Saturday, October 6, 2018

In the sweetness

Every poker style / flavor combination has its own spin on what being in the sweetness means. Right now, I'm in the sweetness for MTT-R NLHE. I've finished in the money in four straight tournaments. That's a super hard thing to do. How do I know? Experience :-) I've now played 635 MTT-R NLHEs, and have only accomplished this feat 4 times. I've never had a longer streak. I have a chance to change that tonight; wish me luck!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      81   18    15   407000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      61   15     7   476000


delta: $483,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,048,500
2018 balance: $-333,000
balance: $45,180,260

Thursday, October 4, 2018

Pocket royalty

Last night, I had the good fortune to be dealt a lot of pocket royalty. I was dealt pocket queens three times, and pocket kings three times. I won the first two times I was dealt the queens, and also won the first two times I was dealt the kings. On the final hand of the night, my third pocket kings lost to an opponent who'd been dealt pocket queens, and spiked a queen on the river. An interesting sidelight - I was above water at the start of every hand I played, which is a rarity.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      71   15    13   264000


delta: $114,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,565,500
2018 balance: $-816,000
balance: $44,697,260

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Something to celebrate

I haven't had a lot to celebrate, poker-wise, for quite a while. Even though I had a losing session again last night, I still found something to celebrate. It was a milestone - I achieved the 200th in-the-money finish of my MTT-R NLHE career. I've played 632 of these tournaments now, so my in-the-money percentage is 31.65. It's held quite steadily above 30 for a long time now. What I've lately been failing to do is ladder up significantly once I get into the money, but at least I'm getting into the money consistently. I'm betting I'll still be able to end the year in the black.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      70   15    32        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    94      41    9     8   332000


delta: $-318,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,451,500
2018 balance: $-930,000
balance: $44,583,260

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

The cruelest game

Decades ago, I was interested in backgammon, and bought a book called "Backgammon: The Cruelest Game". Its awesome title has stayed with me all these years. I'm here to tell you that there are moments when poker usurps the mantle of cruelest game. I experienced such a moment last night. On the final hand of the only tournament I entered, I was two spots out of the money. I'd been dealt pocket eights, and was up against an opponent who'd been dealt KJo (king jack offsuit). The flop came 9s 8d Kc, giving me a set of eights and my opponent a pair of kings. At this point, I was a 94.85% favorite to win the hand. My opponent bet 5,700 chips on the flop, and I smooth called. The turn was the nine of clubs, giving me a full house, and my opponent kings up. At this point, I was a 90.91% favorite to win the hand. My opponent bet 6,000 chips on the turn, and I called all in with my last 4,825 chips. My opponent only had 4 outs - he had to hit one of the two remaining kings in the deck, or one of the two remaining nines. I had 40 outs. Disastrously for me, the nine of diamonds spiked on the river, and that was all she wrote. Definitely a cruel, cruel hand; one of the cruelest in recent memory. My blue distance is now in shouting distance of $10,000,000.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    87      55   12    14        0


delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $32,769,500
2018 balance: $-612,000
balance: $44,901,260

Monday, October 1, 2018

Worst 17 bagger ever

I had my choice of blog post titles tonight; I had to pick what bad news to lead with :-) Here's all the bad news, in no particular order:

- in the last 17 sessions, I've lost a whopping $4,046,000, a new personal worst for 17 consecutive sessions
- my blue distance is now at an all-time high of $9,383,000 (another new personal worst)
- my 2018 balance is now underwater; if it's still underwater at the end of the year, this will be my first yearly loss since I started playing online poker in 2008

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    36      83   18    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      62   15    32        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      60   12    20        0


delta: $-500,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $33,019,500
2018 balance: $-362,000
balance: $45,151,260