Monday, April 30, 2018

Fifth worst reverse rebound

As I've said many times before, I love outliers, be they positive or negative. Last night, I posted the fifth worst reverse rebound of my career. Here are the top 10:

2018-01-01    $700,000
2018-03-21    $600,000
2017-11-13    $550,000
2017-12-26    $500,000
2018-04-29    $450,000
2018-02-08    $439,000
2017-07-06    $400,000
2017-06-29    $400,000
2017-07-13    $374,000
2017-07-25    $355,000


The silver lining to huge reverse rebounds is that you can't have them without having had a monster prior session.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    22      60   12    30        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      66   15    39        0


delta: $-450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,900,500
2018 balance: $7,177,000
balance: $52,690,260

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Improbablue

Last night, my overall balance returned to the blue in a most improbable fashion, hence the title of this post :-) I'd already gotten under the lights, but was short-stacked. There were seven players left. At the start of hand 120, I was in seventh, with just 224 chips to my name. At this point, the ante was 600, so I fell in. Here were the remaining payouts:

1st   $3,235,000
2nd   $2,172,000
3rd   $1,644,000
4th   $1,115,000
5th     $822,000
6th     $616,000
7th     $499,000

The player in sixth was sitting out, which helped my cause a bit; the PokerStars software auto-folds a sitting out player's hand whenever someone else has made a bet and the action is on the sitting out player. That meant I had one less player to beat. I got lucky and ended up winning the main pot, even though the lion's share of that hand's chips were in a side pot. As a result, I was guaranteed at least 6th place money, since the sitting out player had hit the rail. I hit the rail myself the very next hand, but the non-damage had already been done :-) By laddering up one spot, I made an extra $117,000 in profit, and my overall balance was back in the blue. Sweet!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   121      48   12     6   616000


delta: $466,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,350,500
2018 balance: $7,627,000
balance: $53,140,260

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Aces and faces

Last night, I hit the felt a grand total of 6 times - 3 in both of the tournaments I played. The first two in both were before the late registration period had ended, so of course I opted for the double rebuy in those cases. To prove I wasn't shoving light, here are the hole cards I held, preceded by the number of chips lost on the hand:

2,775 Kh Ks 
2,800 Ad Qh 
6,450 Ad Kc 
2,625 Qh Qs 
1,375 Ks 5s 
6,562 Td As

Lots of aces and lots of faces :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    29      66   15    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    98      75   15    13   331000


delta: $-269,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,884,500
2018 balance: $7,161,000
balance: $52,674,260

Friday, April 27, 2018

80 will get you 80

When you look at numbers and statistics a lot, you tend to notice strange coincidences. Things that technically shouldn't correlate with each other sometimes seem to anyhow. Last night's session led me to discover one of these coincidences. I played one tournament, and lasted over 80 hands. That made my wonder what my percentage of making the money in tournaments where I last at least 80 hands might be. The answer? 82.27. 80 will get you 80 :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      63   15    14   331000


delta: $231,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,153,500
2018 balance: $7,430,000
balance: $52,943,260

Thursday, April 26, 2018

Another personal borscht

Last night, I set another personal borscht. My last four tournaments have all ended in a freefall from the peak. That is to say, in each one, I didn't win a single pot after my stack hit its high point. The good news is that there's no correlation between freefalls from the peak and missing the money; in two of the four tournaments, I made the money.

The answer to the riddle I posed yesterday is that I didn't hit the felt despite not winning the (main) pot due to the fact that I won a side pot :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    61      75   15    23        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,922,500
2018 balance: $7,199,000
balance: $52,712,260

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Poker riddle

On hand 15 of the only tournament I played last night, a curious thing happened. I called all in on the turn, lost the pot, but didn't hit the felt. How could that be? I'll provide the answer in my next post.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    65      59   12    20        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,022,500
2018 balance: $7,299,000
balance: $52,812,260

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Backing a loser

I made the money last night in large part because I backed a loser. Why would I do that? For the simple reason that it was the right thing to do. On hand 57, I was short stacked and in the big blind, starting the hand with just 1,775 in chips. The ante of 125 chips plus the forced bet of 1,200 chips meant that I was compelled to commit roughly 75% of my stack to the pot before the hand had even begun. I was dealt seven five offsuit, a terrible hand. However, I knew that I could never fold it, since so many of my chips were already committed. I had to live or die with that hand. Luckily for me, I lived, winning the main pot of 12,675 with a full house of sevens full of deuces.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    68      89   18    16   379000


delta: $279,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,222,500
2018 balance: $7,499,000
balance: $53,012,260

Monday, April 23, 2018

A shocking number

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's second tournament, it was easy to see that it underwent a freefall from the peak. At the end of hand 98, I had 61,810 in chips, which was the most I ever had in the tournament. After that, however, I failed to win a single pot. I got curious about how many times that's happened in my MTT-R NLHE career, so I wrote a utility to find out. The answer was shocking - 112 times in 531 tournaments, which is a squeak over 21% of the time. Who knew?

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    32      69   15    48        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   125      53   12     7   569000


delta: $69,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,943,500
2018 balance: $7,220,000
balance: $52,733,260

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Making lemonade

Last night, when I couldn't readily find an angle to write about Friday night's session from, I decided to give up and play some chess instead :-) Tonight, there's nothing for it but to find an angle. I decided the best one would be to discover the most positive thing about the session and write about that. Kind of like making lemonade out of lemons :-) Here goes ...

The most positive thing about Friday night's session was that when I was card dead in the first tournament, I knew it. I only saw 3 flops in 28 hands, which is the third lowest seeing the flop percentage of my MTT-R NLHE career.

I don't know, seems like this lemonade needs more sugar, wouldn't you say? :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    28      67   15    48        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    48      85   18    46        0


delta: $-450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,874,500
2018 balance: $7,151,000
balance: $52,664,260

Friday, April 20, 2018

Consecutive fall ins

A very rare thing happened to me in last night's session - I survived two fall ins in a row. That's pure luck, plain and simple. It's rare to survive one fall in, so surviving two in a row is a real outlier.

In other news, I made it back into the blue. If I keep up this pace, I'll make a profit of over 25 million this year, which will take my overall balance north of 70 million. Poker life is sweet :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      88   18    15   411000


delta: $311,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,324,500
2018 balance: $7,601,000
balance: $53,114,260

Thursday, April 19, 2018

A stampede of cowboys

Last night, I was dealt cowboys (pocket kings) 3 times in 38 hands. That means I was getting them at 17.45 times their normal frequency. freq-y :-) Unfortunately, that didn't translate into making the money; I hit the rail when an opponent hit a straight on the river. To add insult to injury, I'd been dealt a big slick, and was an 85.71% favorite to win the hand after the turn.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      49   12    31        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,013,500
2018 balance: $7,290,000
balance: $52,803,260

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Inevitablue

I've been running hot lately. When you're running hot, you know it, and see no reason why it can't continue. You play with confidence, and that begets more confidence. Since I was so close to being in the blue before last night's session started, I was pretty sure I'd get there. You could say it was inevitablue :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      85   18    59        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   113      61   15     8   505000


delta: $255,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,213,500
2018 balance: $7,490,000
balance: $53,003,260

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

One rung to rule them all

As proud as I am of the frequency I make it under the lights, I'm just as proud of what I do once I get there. I generally ladder up. My ladder up average is just a squeak under one rung. Last night, I got under the lights again, and laddered up one place from 6th to 5th. That gave me an additional $199,000 in profit. Not too shabby :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   116      68   15     5  1037000


delta: $937,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,958,500
2018 balance: $7,235,000
balance: $52,748,260

Monday, April 16, 2018

One shot

A deer has to be taken with one shot. I try to tell people that but they don't listen.

Michael, played by Robert De Niro, in "The Deer Hunter" (1978)
source: imdb.com

Last night, for only the second time in the 410 MTT-R NLHE tournaments I've played, I fired just one shot. It would be a feather in anyone's cap to come in first in an MTT-R after firing a single bullet, but that's not a realistic goal. I didn't set out last night to be so trigger averse, it just turned out that way. A big contributing factor was getting dealt into a hand immediately, before I had time to do my traditional first rebuy. I'm sure that tonight, I'll fire at least two bullets :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    10      77   18    69        0

delta: $-50,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,021,500
2018 balance: $6,298,000
balance: $51,811,260

Sunday, April 15, 2018

Getting there

"Getting there" has different meanings in poker, depending on the context. On a micro scale, getting there means hitting your straight or flush draw. On a macro scale, getting there means making the money in a tournament. I've had strong hunches before that I was going to hit a draw, but they never rose to the level of certainty. I have to say, sometimes I'm certain I'm going to make the money. That was the case last night. It's a great feeling. It's probably a little bit like what being Superman feels like :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   131      64   15     6   892000


delta: $692,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,071,500
2018 balance: $6,348,000
balance: $51,861,260

Saturday, April 14, 2018

Trailing losses

When you've played as many tournaments as I have, things which seem like they should be unusual actually aren't. For instance, in the first tournament I played last night, I lost the final 25 hands. That was fully half the hands I played in that tournament. I thought that would be an outlier, but discovered it wasn't after writing a utility to tabulate trailing losses. The most trailing losses I've had in an MTT-R NLHE is a whopping 61 hands! That was back on August 29 of last year.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      81   18    26        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      60   12    29        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,379,500
2018 balance: $5,656,000
balance: $51,169,260

Friday, April 13, 2018

Bookends

Last night, my first and last hands were matching bookends - in each, I lost all my chips. In between those two failed all ins, I had four successful ones. In two of those, I was dealt pocket jacks. Baby cowboys rule :-)

After a hiatus of 13 tournaments, I made it back under the lights. I'll try to make it two in a row tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    98      69   15     7   700000


delta: $450,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,579,500
2018 balance: $5,856,000
balance: $51,369,260

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Magic flushed

If there's one poker outcome I hate more than any other, it's getting magic flushed. That's when you have a better hand than your opponent before the flop, after the flop, and after the turn, but lose to a flush where four of the five cards making up the flush come from the board. That's what happened to me on the final hand of the second tournament I played last night. I'd been dealt 3d 3h, and was up against an opponent who'd been dealt 2h 2c. The board ran out Qc 8c Qd Kc 5c, giving my opponent a magic flush, and me the gate :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    38      72   15    39        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    60      59   12    27        0


delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,129,500
2018 balance: $5,406,000
balance: $50,919,260

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Overcards error

Last night, I lasted a mere 23 hands. It was the 11th shortest MTT-R NLHE of my career. This was due to an evaluation error I made on the final hand. I'd been dealt a suited big slick, which guaranteed that I'd either flop a monster or else have overcards to the board. However, I failed to see that the turn card put three cards to a straight out there. When I paired my king on the river, I promptly called all in, and lost to a straight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    23      54   12    47        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,429,500
2018 balance: $5,706,000
balance: $51,219,260

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

High end plussed

I first used this blog post title on June 2, 2011, back in my cash game days. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say:

On the hand in question, I got high end plussed. Here's what I mean by that: when the board has four cards to a straight which are all in a row, there's one way to fill the low end of the straight, but there are actually two ways to fill the high end. The common way to fill the high end is by holding a card which is one higher than the highest board card which is part of the draw. A much rarer way to fill the high end is by holding the card just mentioned and also holding a card which is one higher than that card.

Last night, I hit the rail when my hand filled the high end, but lost to a high end plus. Had I chopped that pot I feel confident I would have made the money. C'est la guerre :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      56   12    18        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,579,500
2018 balance: $5,856,000
balance: $51,369,260

Monday, April 9, 2018

Shoving pocks

In a rebuy tournament, pocks (pocket pairs) can be very shovely (lovely to shove (go all in with)). Even when the late registration period is over, shoving pocks can be a viable play. Last night, I received pocks 7 times, and shoved them 4 times. Every time I did, I won :-) That really helped me to make the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   117      57   12    10   329000


delta: $229,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,679,500
2018 balance: $5,956,000
balance: $51,469,260

Sunday, April 8, 2018

One and done

Last night, I won a single hand. Although I more than quadrupled my stack by winning it, I had no chance of making the money if I failed to win another. So you could say I was one and done :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    41      60   12    25        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,450,500
2018 balance: $5,727,000
balance: $51,240,260

Saturday, April 7, 2018

yaagbh

I love my "yet another" acronyms. My newest one is yaagbh, and stands for "yet another always going broke hand". My final hand of last night's session was such a one. I was dealt pocket queens, got into a preflop raising war, and called all in. Unfortunately, my opponent turned over aces, making me an 18.96% dog. His aces held up, and I was gone. As a refresher, an always going broke hand is a hand you're always prepared to go all in with; it doesn't mean you'll always go broke doing so :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    34      66   15    45        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,600,500
2018 balance: $5,877,000
balance: $51,390,260

Friday, April 6, 2018

yaw

Last night, I had yaw - yet another whaleback. I missed the money by three places. I played well, had fun, and outlasted a bunch of the usual suspects. I feel a big payday heading my way :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    72      54   12    15        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,700,500
2018 balance: $5,977,000
balance: $51,490,260

Thursday, April 5, 2018

Outrunning a bear

There's an old joke that goes like this:

Steve and Mark are camping when a bear suddenly comes out and growls.  Steve starts putting on his tennis shoes.
Mark says, “What are you doing? You can’t outrun a bear!”
Steve says, “I don’t have to outrun the bear—I just have to outrun you!”


https://jokes.boyslife.org/jokes/you-cant-outrun-a-bear/

I used that philosophy to good advantage last night, when I was severely short-stacked with the money bubble about to pop. There were 19 players left, and 18 places would be paid. I was in 18th place, and concentrated all my energy on keeping my stack bigger than the stack of the player in 19th. In this case, that simply meant folding every hand. I was happy to do it :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    73      79   18    18   315000


delta: $115,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,800,500
2018 balance: $6,077,000
balance: $51,590,260

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

The golden ratio for MTT-R NLHEs

It's been a long time since I've talked about golden ratios. I don't think I've ever given an opinion on the golden ratio for MTT-R NLHEs; I'll remedy that now. The golden ratio I came up with for cash games is 2; if you can win twice as many sessions as you lose, you'll be in the clover. The golden ratio I came up with for MTTs is 1; if you can make the money in as many of these tournaments as you miss the money in, you'll be golden. After playing MTT-R NLHEs for almost a year, I believe that the golden ratio for this style and flavor is .5; if you can make the money in half as many of these tournaments as you miss the money in, you'll be minting money. What an accommodating style and flavor! It's the easiest one to make money in I've ever encountered.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    11      56   12    34        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      48   12    11   270000


delta: $-30,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,685,500
2018 balance: $5,962,000
balance: $51,475,260

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Mr. Triska

As you know, I love poker abbreviations. Here are some examples:

"pocks" for a pocket pair
"suities" for suited connectors
"fatty" for a full house
"quads" for four of a kind

I just came up with a new one:

"triska" for finishing 13th in a tournament (from triskaidekaphobia)

Last night, I came in 13th. This has been my most common MTT-R NLHE place. Here are the top 10, including ties:

place  count

   13     19
   15     16
    4     12
    6     12
   14     12
   16     12
   29     12
   35     11
    5     10
   11     10
   22     10
   25     10
   28     10
   34     10


Just call me Mr. Triska :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    62      64   15    13   292000


delta: $192,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,715,500
2018 balance: $5,992,000
balance: $51,505,260

Monday, April 2, 2018

yabg

As a refresher, yabg stands for "yet another big goodbye". That's what I suffered on the final hand of last night's session. I was dealt Ac Jc, and called all in after a flop of Ts 7h Jh. My opponent had flopped two pair, and they held up. I lost 3,225 in chips to hit the rail. The one bright spot was that I continued my recent trend of not adding on. I've now avoided adding on in eight straight tournaments.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    26      75   15    50        0


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $39,523,500
2018 balance: $5,800,000
balance: $51,313,260