Monday, November 29, 2010

The seven-per-cent solution

Fans of Sherlock Holmes and of the writer Nicholas Meyer will recognize in the title of this post the title of Meyer's first novel, which starred the famous fictional detective and Sigmund Freud. In Sherlock's case, the solution was a mixture of water and cocaine; in my case, the solution is a modest goal to shoot for when playing Texas Hold'em. With a starting stack of $40K, a gain of 7% brings one's stack up to $42,800. On Friday night, I hit this mark exactly. The reason I quit at that point was that the table had quit on me, and I didn't feel motivated enough to join another one.

My biggest pot of the night was a rather modest $5,600; I had a pair of queens, and no one took me to showdown.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 5 times while in big blind (60%)
- 4 out of 4 times while in small blind (100%)
- 11 out of 17 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 18 out of 26 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 0 of 1 (0%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $2,800
balance: $884,138

Friday, November 26, 2010

One year anniversary

Yesterday was the one year anniversary of this blog. In that span of 365 days, I played online poker on 219 of them, which turns out to be exactly 60% of the time. 60% is a good poker number, I've discovered; it's a good goal to see the flop 60% of the time.

I surprised myself by achieving my goal of a million play dollars much sooner than I'd expected. When it became clear to me that I'd be reaching the goal sometime in the summer, I knew I wanted to try my hand at other poker flavors besides Hold'em, and decided I'd switch to Omaha as soon as I made my first play million. The idea of Omaha really captivated me.

As I've chronicled earlier, I didn't give Omaha the chance it deserved. The next flavor I tried was 7 card stud. I liked a lot of the features of 7 card stud, but came to realize it requires a lot more concentration and memory than either Hold'em or Omaha. 7 card stud felt a lot more like work than fun, in the end.

Ironically, it was when I decided to switch back to my best game, Hold'em, that my stack fell back down below a million; it's remained there ever since. Achieving my goal the first time in so relatively effortless a fashion spoiled me; it gave me an inflated sense of my poker skill, and I abandoned (without meaning to) some of the poker best practices I'd built up. I realized I needed to retool, to strip my game back down to the basics before trying to build it up again.

I've been in an extended holding pattern for a while now; every time it looks like I'm about to go on a roll, my stack gets spanked back down again. I'm not discouraged, however; in fact, as I've indicated, I plan on giving Omaha another try when I hit a million again. You notice, I said when, not if :-)

On Wednesday night, I won the first two hands of the session, and decided to end my night when it became clear I wouldn't be able to win the third.

I'm looking forward to my next year of poker and blogging!

delta: $22,400
balance: $881,338

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Two horrendous bets

On Saturday night, I had a poker marathon of sorts -- 77 hands, in roughly two and a quarter hours of play. The reason I played so long is that I got behind early and was trying to get back to even. I lost my full starting stack of $40K at the first two tables I joined; I recouped some at the third table, but not enough. Looking back at the hand histories, I see that I only played really badly at the first table. Two horrendous bets did me in.

horrendous bet #1: on the river, with only a pair of kings, I bet $13K, and lost to a two pair of kings and queens; the river card was a queen

horrendous bet #2: on the turn, with three kings, I raised an $11K bet by $300 to go all in, and lost to a king high flush; the board had three clubs at the turn

delta: $-36,300
balance: $858,938

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Recognizing your good fortune

On Thursday night, I had a slight loss, but it could have been much worse. I lost my full starting stack of $40K at the first table I joined; this was mostly due to not being able to stop myself from chasing flush draws. I reupped at another table, and was slowly heading south when I had the following miraculous hand:

Table 'Alcor V' 9-max (Play Money) Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: (28432 in chips)
Seat 2: (40000 in chips)
Seat 3: (54700 in chips)
Seat 4: (26600 in chips)
Seat 5: (41100 in chips)
Seat 6: (38100 in chips)
Seat 7: (39300 in chips)
Seat 8: neostreet (42900 in chips)
Seat 9: (41500 in chips)
Seat 7: posts small blind 100
neostreet: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to neostreet [Qs Ah]
Seat 9: raises 500 to 700
Seat 1: calls 700
Seat 2: folds
Seat 3: calls 700
Seat 4: calls 700
Seat 5: folds
Seat 6: calls 700
Seat 7: calls 600
neostreet: raises 500 to 1200
Seat 9: raises 500 to 1700
Seat 1: calls 1000
Seat 3: folds
Seat 4: calls 1000
Seat 6: calls 1000
Seat 7: calls 1000
neostreet: raises 500 to 2200
Seat 9: calls 500
Seat 1: calls 500
Seat 4: calls 500
Seat 6: calls 500
Seat 7: calls 500
*** FLOP *** [Ac Kc Jd]
Seat 7: checks
neostreet: bets 7000
Seat 9: folds
Seat 1: calls 7000
Seat 4: calls 7000
Seat 6: calls 7000
Seat 7: folds
*** TURN *** [Ac Kc Jd] [8c]
neostreet: checks
Seat 1: checks
Seat 4: checks
Seat 6: checks
*** RIVER *** [Ac Kc Jd 8c] [7c]
neostreet: checks
Seat 1: checks
Seat 4: checks
Seat 6: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
neostreet: shows [Qs Ah] (a pair of Aces)
Seat 1: mucks hand
Seat 4: mucks hand
Seat 6: mucks hand
neostreet collected 41900 from pot

What are the odds that none of the four players remaining in the hand at showdown have a single club? Very small, indeed. I recognized my good fortune, and called it a night posthaste.

delta: $-4,500
balance: $895,238

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Poker loves me back

I've mentioned many times on this blog that I love poker. Sometimes, poker loves me back! Poker loved me back in the session that first took my stack over the play million threshold, and poker loved me back again last night. In my very first hand, I was dealt a pair of sevens, flopped a set, improved it to a full house on the turn, went all in on the river, beat an inferior full house, and more than doubled my stack. Of course, I immediately called it a night.

delta: $41,700
balance: $899,738

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Refusing to think

Last night, I hit the felt due to my refusal to think at a crucial time. I'd hit a full house on the river, and let my concept of the value of a full house in general completely override any concept of the value of this particular full house in this particular hand. Actually, the refusal to think had actually started one street earlier, on the turn; if I'd been able to think clearly, I would have realized that I was drawing dead at that point, and would have folded before even seeing the river.

Here's the hand, in all its shameful glory:

Table 'Kiess' 9-max (Play Money) Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: neostreet (22600 in chips)
Seat 3: (38600 in chips)
Seat 5: (56850 in chips)
Seat 6: (52900 in chips)
Seat 7: (66013 in chips)
Seat 8: (87800 in chips)
Seat 9: (26600 in chips)
neostreet: posts small blind 100
Seat 3: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to neostreet [Qh 7c]
Seat 5: calls 200
Seat 6: folds
Seat 7: calls 200
Seat 8: folds
Seat 9: calls 200
neostreet: calls 100
Seat 3: checks
*** FLOP *** [7d Ks 4s]
neostreet: checks
Seat 3: bets 1000
Seat 5: folds
Seat 7: calls 1000
Seat 9: folds
neostreet: calls 1000
*** TURN *** [7d Ks 4s] [Kc]
neostreet: checks
Seat 3: bets 2200
Seat 7: folds
neostreet: calls 2200
*** RIVER *** [7d Ks 4s Kc] [7h]
neostreet: checks
Seat 3: bets 8200
neostreet: raises 8200 to 16400
Seat 3: raises 18800 to 35200 and is all-in
neostreet: calls 2800 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (16000) returned to Seat 3
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Seat 3: shows [Kh Ts] (a full house, Kings full of Sevens)
neostreet: shows [Qh 7c] (a full house, Sevens full of Kings)
Seat 3 collected 46800 from pot

I knew from the way seat 3 had bet that it was likely he'd hit trip kings on the turn; at that point, I was drawing dead. Unfortunately, I was brain dead as well! Not only did I fail to realize I was drawing dead, I bet the river mistakenly believing that my full house could beat any hand seat 3 had! I fully deserved to hit the felt, and with extreme prejudice at that :-)

One of the reasons I love poker so much is that it's such a humbling game. Sessions like last night's never make me want to quit; they make me realize how dumb I can play sometimes and make me want to play smarter oftener!

delta: $-40,000
balance: $858,038

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Sweet sixteen

Last night's session was short and sweet. My very first hand, I flopped a set of sevens and won a pot worth $8K. The next time I went to showdown, I had a full house; that time I won a pot worth $58K. The last time I went to showdown, I had a king high flush and won a pot worth $34K. In between, I mostly fwepped. If I could keep up this pace, I'd be back at a million play dollars before Thanksgiving!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 16 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
- 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
- 9 out of 14 times in other positions (64%)
- a total of 11 out of 16 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $40,468
balance: $898,038

Monday, November 15, 2010

Nonsensical play

Last Friday night, I played so nonsensically that I can't now reconstruct what my thought processes must have been. In my most inexplicable hand, I invested $32,800 on a pair of aces. In the hand that took me to the felt, I invested $15,300 on a stealth two pair. In both cases, I was once again willfully deaf to the betting patterns of my opponents.

I realize right now I really need to strip my game down to the bare essentials, and slowly build it back up. The good news is that I still have a very healthy stack; the bad news is, my stack won't stay that way if I keep on playing so idiotically!

I need to be super patient, and play a lot more tightly; I've been playing much too loosely recently. My goal is to get back to a million play dollars by Christmas; we'll see how I do.

delta: $-40,000
balance: $857,570

Friday, November 12, 2010

Turning a deaf ear

Last night, two disastrous hands did me in. The first one took me down to the felt at the first table I joined; the second one nearly did so at the next table. In both cases, I turned a deaf ear to what the betting patterns of my opponents were trying to tell me. The only excuse I can make is that in both cases, I had strong hands. The thing is, that's only a good excuse for a mediocre player; for someone who aspires to be great, it's no excuse at all. I hereby retract it, since I definitely aspire to greatness!

It's ironic that this reversal came on the very night I wrote a blog post explaining my concept of the yin and yang of the probable and the improbable. If I'd been able to follow my own advice, the massive loss might not have occurred.

delta: $-76,350
balance: $897,570

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Statistical anomalies

Poker is largely about probabilities. The better you understand probability, the better you'll be at poker. One of the most important lessons to learn about probability, counter-intuitive though it might be, is that the improbable always happens, eventually. That's one reason I very rarely go all in.

I have a good innate sense of probability. I don't consciously have to think through every link in a chain of probabilistic reasoning in order to reach a conclusion; I can take shortcuts. For example, if I only have an ace high on the river, and there are several other players still in the hand, I know without having to calculate them that the odds that one of the other players has at least a pair are excellent; I would never dream of calling any bet with such a hand.

Last night, I experienced another first. I won six hands in a row! I kept wanting to call it a night, but I couldn't do that until I'd stopped winning :-) I realize that streak was a statistical anomaly, and wasn't due to any great skill on my part. To be really good at poker, you must embrace two contradictory notions simultaneously -- that the more probable hand will probably win, and that the more improbable hand will improbably win!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
- 6 out of 6 times while in small blind (100%)
- 12 out of 14 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 23 out of 26 (88%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $27,300
balance: $973,920

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Eleven from heaven

I've really been missing playing poker; I haven't played lately due to the fact that I just started a new job. A lot of my time has been taken up with HR paperwork; thankfully, that's now been completed.

The title of this post refers to the fact that my last session, played Friday night, was short and sweet. I remember I only won one pot, but it was a doozy. I don't remember what the hand was, so let me delve once more into the archives...

It was a stealth two pair, but of a rare kind -- I picked up one pair on the flop, and the second one on the turn. Most of the stealth two pairs I play are of the kind where I pick up both pairs on the flop. However the pairs are picked up, however, this is the kind of hand which you must play very cautiously, and largely by gut feel. My gut was telling me my hand was best, and it was right.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 11 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
- 0 out of 1 times while in small blind (0%)
- 5 out of 9 times in other positions (55%)
- a total of 6 out of 11 (54%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 2 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $22,800
balance: $946,620

Friday, November 5, 2010

One Hand to rule them all

Though I've read J.R.R. Tolkien's "The Hobbit" twice, and immensely enjoyed it both times, for some reason I've never read "The Lord of the Rings". I started the first book of the trilogy once, only got a couple of chapters in, abandoned it, and never tried again. Evidently I got far enough in, however, to have encountered Gandalf's poem about the rings; the first line is seared in my memory:

Three Rings for the Elven-kings under the sky

I just used Wikipedia to refresh my memory on the concluding lines:

One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them,
In the land of Mordor where the shadows lie.

Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of last night's session, what immediately came to mind was the phrase "One Hand to rule them all". I miniporpoised for most of the session until a hand where I won a pot worth just over $46K. That was roughly four times the size of my next biggest pot.

When the One Hand comes along like that, it behooves you to end your session shortly after, and I did.

delta: $23,000
balance: $923,820

Thursday, November 4, 2010

The siren call of Omaha

Though this may seem prideful, I know I'm a very good Hold'em player (recent results notwithstanding). I don't feel very challenged by it any more, though. Don't get me wrong, I still enjoy playing it quite a lot. However, I want more of a challenge. I realize now that I wimped out on Omaha the first time I tried it; I was trying to judge it by Hold'em standards, instead of by its own. Omaha is a devilishly difficult game, and for that very reason I find myself being drawn back to it. Whether I'm actually being drawn back to Omaha itself, or to my idealized vision of what Omaha should be, I'm not sure yet.

So here's what I propose: when I hit the play million mark again, I'll give Omaha another shot. This time, I'll be prepared to accept a lot more volatility in my results. I won't even think about the golden ratio, or losing streaks, or gambling away my Hold'em winnings. I won't complain about the quality of Omaha player I encounter, either. My aim will simply be to learn and master the intricacies of Omaha.

On Tuesday night, I lost half my stack in the first third of the session, then won it all back and more in the latter two thirds.

delta: $13,771
balance: $900,820

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Patience

Last night, I had good patience. I hung around, folding when I should fold, winning hands I should win, and never dropped significantly below the amount of my starting stack. My patience was rewarded when I flopped a set of tens; I extracted maximum value from the hand, winning a pot worth $60,600. Since that doubled up my initial stack, it was easy to call it a night at that point.

The thing about patience is that it's the simplest concept in the world to state, but often quite difficult to put into practice. You can pay all the lip service to patience you want, but that won't make you a more patient player. It's a tautology, I know, but the only way you can be a more patient player is by being a more patient player :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 33 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
- 3 out of 5 times while in small blind (60%)
- 14 out of 23 times in other positions (60%)
- a total of 21 out of 33 (63%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

I hit two sweet spots in the session:

1. the number of hands is close to 35, my current nomination for best session length

2. the seeing the flop percentage is close to 60%, my current nomination for best seeing the flop percentage

delta: $41,600
balance: $887,049

Monday, November 1, 2010

Four and out -- the fun way

On Saturday night, I had a very short session -- only four hands. On the third hand, I flopped a set of kings, went all in with them, and won a pot worth $103,700. I'll have to check the archives, but I think that's either the biggest pot I've ever won or very close to it. Though I didn't get a chance to put my new fwepping skills to use, I was happy to end my night with such a nice increase to my stack.

delta: $63,700
balance: $845,449