The defensive bet

Betting is highly situational. Whether you bet, and how much you bet, is influenced by a myriad of factors. One of the most interesting bets to have in your arsenal is the defensive bet. That sounds like a contradiction in terms, but it's not. If you're playing against action players, they like nothing better than to be the first one to enter a pot. If an action player is the first to enter a pot, more often than not he'll enter it big. On the other hand, if someone enters the pot before him, he's likely not to bet as big. If you act before an action player, and can size your bet appropriately, you'll end up paying less to see the next card than you otherwise would. So, in effect, you're defending your chips by betting.

Another kind of defensive bet, which is more difficult to pull off, is what I call a side pot bet. That's a maneuver I successfully made on the river last night, on the penultimate hand. A side pot bet is a bet you make to give yourself insurance against losing the main pot. You can only make it when one or more opponents have already gone all in and there is at least one other opponent who is still in the hand with you, who still has chips. The tricky part about side pot bets is that they have to be small enough so people are enticed to call, but big enough to give you as much insurance as possible. It does you no good if no one calls your side pot bet; then the side pot you're trying to create never materializes, and all you're left with is the main pot (and any earlier side pots). When I made my side pot bet last night, there was $37,500 in the main pot. I sized my bet at $3,000. The one opponent who was still live in the hand called me. As it turned out, I won both the $6,000 side pot and the main pot, for a total haul of $43,500. If I'd won the side pot but lost the main pot, I would have lost $9,000 on the hand, but that would have been more palatable than losing the $12,000 I would have lost without the side pot bet. Of course, if I'd lost both the side pot and the main pot, I would have lost $15,000 on the hand. This brings up an important point - if you don't think you have better than a 50/50 chance of winning the side pot, you shouldn't make the side pot bet.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 9 hands and saw flop:
 - 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 5 out of 6 times in other positions (83%)
 - a total of 8 out of 9 (88%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $38,800
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,343,684
balance: $6,793,092

Sneaky streaks

The best streak of winning sessions I've had in my poker career is 29 straight. I don't remember exactly when I became aware I was on such a major streak, but I was unaware longer than you might think. One of the wonderful things about poker is that when you're in the zone, it feels completely natural and normal to win. You don't think you're doing anything special; you're just playing normally. All you want to do is keep on playing normally. As policemen like to say at a crime scene, "Nothing to see here; move along!". It's only when you finally lose that you can begin to take stock of your accomplishment. When even long winning streaks can sneak up on you, it's no wonder that great play streaks are even sneakier. What I mean by great play streaks are stretches where you don't win every session, but damn near do. Looking at my recent session deltas, I realize I'm on a great play streak. I've won 14 of the last 17 sessions; this is the best 17 session stretch I've had since I quit playing sit and gos. I've won over $300,000 in this stretch.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 92 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 15 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 5 out of 14 times while in small blind (35%)
 - 20 out of 63 times in other positions (31%)
 - a total of 35 out of 92 (38%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 9 (44%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $25,787
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,304,884
balance: $6,754,292

Eleventh hour

Last night I won 1 out of every 11 hands. That's below average for a table with 7 players, but it was fine with me. Extending my theory of statistical symbiosis, it's crystal clear that the lower your seeing-the-flop percentage is, the lower your win per hand ratio is likely to be. If you don't see the flop, by definition you've folded. If you've folded, by definition you've lost the hand. The key thing to remember is that it doesn't matter how many hands you win; the only thing that matters is whether you win enough when you do win to more than offset your intervening losses. If you have enough patience, the phone will eventually ring, and you'll pick it up and know it's for you :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 33 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 3 out of 4 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 9 out of 25 times in other positions (36%)
 - a total of 15 out of 33 (45%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 5 (60%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $22,122
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,279,097
balance: $6,728,505

Statistical symbiosis

Poker decisions don't live in isolation. No more do poker statistics. They're inextricably inter-connected. The more I look at seeing-the-flop percentages and showdown percentages, the more I understand their symbiotic relationship. You really, really, really don't want a big seeing-the-flop percentage. The more mediocre it is, the more awesome your showdown percentage is likely to be. As I've said before, 50 is the magic number. If you can keep your seeing-the-flop percentage below 50, you vastly increase your chances of success. I have a hunch I've never doubled my starting stack with a seeing-the-flop percentage over 50; I'll check this out sometime.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 24 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 0 out of 4 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 8 out of 16 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 11 out of 24 (45%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 7 (85%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $45,799
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,256,975
balance: $6,706,383

Flop happy

Last night, I was unusually flop happy early on; I saw the flop the first ten hands running. At the end of those ten hands, I was down $7,683. After that, I settled in for a long night underwater. When I doubled up on hand 99 after making a full house on the turn, I knew it was time to go.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 100 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 15 times while in big blind (73%)
 - 7 out of 16 times while in small blind (43%)
 - 37 out of 69 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 55 out of 100 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 13 (53%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-17,344
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,211,176
balance: $6,660,584

35 spot

Last night, I had an unusual session. Despite a streak of 35 hands in a row where I didn't win a pot, I managed to make a profit on the night. That was due to the opening 10 hands, when my stack shot up by nearly 24 grand. Should I have quit after only 10 hands? Probably. Do I feel bad about not quitting? Nope. I had fun, and also gave myself a chance to have a really monster night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 49 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 7 times while in big blind (71%)
 - 2 out of 6 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 19 out of 36 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 26 out of 49 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 5 (20%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $8,047
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,228,520
balance: $6,677,928

A tight crowd

Last night, everyone at the table I joined was playing really tight. I like that marginally better than a crowd of loose cannons, but what I like the best is a table where most of the opponents take the middle ground, risk-wise. That's the kind of table where I stand to make the most money in the long run. At a table like last night's, I can't realistically hope to double up; I can't even realistically hope to make a 50% profit. The best I can hope for is a profit of about 25%.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 48 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 12 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 9 out of 11 times while in small blind (81%)
 - 12 out of 25 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 30 out of 48 (62%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 7 (42%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $8,060
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,220,473
balance: $6,669,881

The art of the exit

There's no doubt in my mind that the difference between a good cash game career and a great one lies in knowing when to end a session. There's definitely an art to exiting. What makes exiting well especially hard to do is that often the very best time to quit is the very time when you feel you're at the top of your game and can do no wrong. How can you quit when there's all that money at the table, just waiting to be yours? However, if you can convince yourself to quit when you don't really want to, you're going to end up with a ton of money in the long run.

Last night, I did a whole lot of nothing for 36 hands; then, on hand 37, I won a pot worth $18,600. I was a little slow on the uptake; I should have quit on hand 38, but ended up playing one more hand. Still, I'm pleased I was able to recognize that the moment for departure had arrived.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 39 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 8 out of 9 times while in small blind (88%)
 - 14 out of 22 times in other positions (63%)
 - a total of 28 out of 39 (71%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $8,452
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,212,413
balance: $6,661,821

Drawing comatose

The term "drawing dead" refers to the situation you're in when there are more streets to come, but none of them can help you win. Last night, on the final hand of the session, I wasn't technically drawing dead after the flop, but was drawing comatose for sure :-) A player who'd flopped a fatty (a full house) went all in, and two idiots called him (of which I was one). It turns out I had 3 chances in 903 of winning, for a winning percentage of 0.33. My stats for the night look fine, but the 3 hands I lost at showdown did me in.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 59 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 9 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 13 out of 42 times in other positions (30%)
 - a total of 23 out of 59 (38%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 11 (72%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-40,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,203,961
balance: $6,653,369

(Don't Go Back To) Showdown

Last night, I didn't win a single showdown. Not only that, I didn't lose a single showdown. Simply put, I never had to go to showdown; either I folded, or everyone else did. The title of this post riffs on "(Don't Go Back To) Rockville", an R.E.M. song I like. I went on two poker diets last night:

1. the number of hands was 33 or less
2. the seeing the flop percentage was 33 or less

My gut feeling is that I've never had a losing session when both of these restrictions are met. I'll check out the truth of this sometime.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 31 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 4 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 0 out of 3 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 7 out of 24 times in other positions (29%)
 - a total of 10 out of 31 (32%)
 Pots won at showdown - 0 of 0 (0%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $10,491
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,243,961
balance: $6,693,369

A king's ransom

On Friday night, I hit the felt on hand 41 when I was dealt pocket kings, got into a brief preflop raising war, and called an all in bet by an opponent who had me covered. One other player called, so three of us went to showdown. The other hands were a pair of fours and a pair of nines. I had a 64% chance of winning, but it wasn't to be; one of my opponents flopped a set of nines. I would play this hand this same way every time. Pocket kings are so good, you happily pay people to see if they can beat you, since the odds are against that happening. Of course, when it does, you'll often have paid a king's ransom :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 117 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 14 times while in big blind (42%)
 - 7 out of 15 times while in small blind (46%)
 - 34 out of 88 times in other positions (38%)
 - a total of 47 out of 117 (40%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-2,106
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,233,470
balance: $6,682,878

Opening drought

Last night's session was very different from the previous three. It opened with a lengthy drought - I didn't win a pot until hand 34. It was a measly one at that - just $668. By that point, I'd lost half my stack, and would lose even more before my fortunes turned around. What kept me alive was my willingness to fold early and often. It's such a simple strategy in theory, but often a difficult one to stick to in practice. Patience pays.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 62 hands and saw flop:
 - 2 out of 6 times while in big blind (33%)
 - 3 out of 7 times while in small blind (42%)
 - 25 out of 49 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 30 out of 62 (48%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 8 (37%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $8,257
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,235,576
balance: $6,684,984

Lucky 13

Believe it or not, last night's session was even shorter than the one before. I won a big pot on hand 2, and exited stage left on the next hand. In my last three sessions, I've only played 13 hands, but they're a lucky 13! I'm averaging $10,700 per hand over that span. That number resonates, as it's very close to the buy in for the World Series of Poker Main Event. Of course, you can't buy in with play money :-(

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 3 hands and saw flop:
 - 0 out of 0 times while in big blind (0%)
 - 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 1 out of 3 times in other positions (33%)
 - a total of 1 out of 3 (33%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $36,600
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,227,319
balance: $6,676,727

High five

Last night, I won my fifth session in a row. That's not a very rare occurrence. What was a bit rare is that it was a high five - the cumulative amount of money I won, $201,596, was in the top 25% of such occurrences. In my cash game no limit hold'em career, I've won five sessions in a row 81 times; this latest time clocked in as my 19th best. Last night's session was even shorter than the one the night before; I doubled up on hand 3 and got out of Dodge.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 4 hands and saw flop:
 - 0 out of 1 times while in big blind (0%)
 - 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 0 out of 2 times in other positions (0%)
 - a total of 1 out of 4 (25%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $40,800
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,190,719
balance: $6,640,127

Uptown Saturday Night

I'm of a vintage where movies made in the seventies are not unfamiliar to me. Sometimes I remember the title better than the movie itself, though; that's the case with "Uptown Saturday Night", a 1974 comedy starring Sidney Poitier and Bill Cosby. I remember that it was a buddy flick, and that it had its own theme song, but don't remember much of the plot. Its title describes the kind of session I had on Saturday night; my stack went uptown! It was one of those dream sessions which happen very rarely. On the very first hand, I won a pot worth $32,900 with two pair, queens and tens. Four hands later, I won a pot worth $80,200 with a full house, fives full of kings. That was enough for me.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 6 hands and saw flop:
 - 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 0 out of 1 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 1 out of 4 times in other positions (25%)
 - a total of 2 out of 6 (33%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $61,700
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,149,919
balance: $6,599,327

Cash is king

I made tons of money really fast when I played sit and gos last year. Of course, I also lost a ton of money really fast. I had the wisdom, or some might say the cowardice, to quit playing sit and gos when I really began to hemorrhage money. I miss the thrill of tournaments, but certainly don't miss the wild swings. I decided I'd take stock and look at some numbers from the last calendar year - which includes the four month tournament stint - to see if I could draw any conclusions about the relative merits of cash games vs. tournament poker. The results are in, and it's a landslide: cash is king!

In the last calendar year, I played 17,594 tournament hands, and won $1,168,090 playing tournaments. That averages out to $66 a hand. Also in the last calendar year, I played 15,180 cash game hands, and won $2,138,175 playing cash games. That averages out to a whopping $141 per hand. Any time I start getting the urge to play sit and gos again, I'll just remind myself of these stats to set myself straight.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 100 hands and saw flop:
 - 15 out of 20 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 16 out of 22 times while in small blind (72%)
 - 35 out of 58 times in other positions (60%)
 - a total of 66 out of 100 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 14 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 15

delta: $10,275
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,088,219
balance: $6,537,627

Twin flushes

It's pretty rare to get two flushes in a single session. It's much rarer to get two in a row. It's much rarer still if they're in the same suit. It's the rarest of all if they're each the nut flush. Last night, I had two flushes. They were in a row. They were also in the same suit, spades. Finally, they were each the nut flush, since both times I'd been dealt the ace of spades as one of my hole cards. The odds of all those coincidences happening are vanishingly small. I won a pot worth $33,042 with the first twin, and $50,600 with the other. To use a favorite locution of my father's, I knew "beyond peradventure" that I was done for the night :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 29 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 5 times while in big blind (60%)
 - 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
 - 10 out of 19 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 17 out of 29 (58%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 4 (75%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $48,721
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,077,944
balance: $6,527,352

Air

There are only two reasons to go all in:

1. you have the nuts
2. you have air

The reason some players go all in when they have air is that they're trying to scare opponents off the hand, knowing they can't survive a showdown. I don't follow these rules all the time. In fact, I've never used reason 2. That doesn't mean, however, that I've never been the beneficiary when other players have used it. Last night was the most recent case in point. On hand 5, I was dealt a pair of queens, and made a set on the turn. On the river, my opponent went all in, and I called. He turned out to have pure air - a queen high. I took the money and ran.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 6 hands and saw flop:
 - 0 out of 1 times while in big blind (0%)
 - 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 2 out of 4 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 3 out of 6 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $40,100
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,029,223
balance: $6,478,631

The urge to educate

Every now and then, I get the strong urge to educate an opponent about just how big a fool he's being. I try to overcome this desire, but am not always successful. I failed again last night. On hand 23, I flopped a club flush draw. When the opponent immediately to my right, who had me covered, went all in, I couldn't stop myself from calling. Not only did I not hit my flush, it wouldn't have mattered if I had, since my opponent hit a runner runner for a full house. I reupped for the max, but wasn't able to recoup my losses; I played even poker for another 51 hands. When my internet connection died, I took that as the signal to quit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 74 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 10 times while in big blind (50%)
 - 6 out of 11 times while in small blind (54%)
 - 26 out of 53 times in other positions (49%)
 - a total of 37 out of 74 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 13 (30%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $-39,050
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $3,989,123
balance: $6,438,531

Failure to eject

I was toying with the idea of titling this post "Failure to launch", but realized "Failure to eject" is much more apropos. As you may have guessed, this has to do with rockets (pocket aces), and how (or how not) to play them. Very few players have difficulty launching when they're dealt rockets, but by the same token, very few players have the ability to eject once they've launched. I didn't have that ability last night, and as a result I rode my rockets straight into the felt. My aces up ran into a full house, and I was done for the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 18 hands and saw flop:
 - 2 out of 3 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 1 out of 3 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 5 out of 12 times in other positions (41%)
 - a total of 8 out of 18 (44%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-40,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,028,173
balance: $6,477,581

Missing my stop

On Saturday night, I missed my stop. Actually, I missed more than one. I should have gotten off the bus when I won a pot worth $44,602 on hand 47. I also should have gotten off when I won a pot worth $35,027 11 hands later. Both of those hands stick out like sore thumbs in the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session. The good news is, I finally got the hint that I'd had the best of my luck, and quit after hand 97. Ironically, my stack at that point was almost exactly what it was at the end of hand 47, so missing the first stop didn't end up hurting me.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 97 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
 - 7 out of 14 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 34 out of 70 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 50 out of 97 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $24,348
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,068,173
balance: $6,517,581

A formula for success

I have enough poker data now to be able to formulate hyphotheses and prove or disprove them quickly by seeing if the data bears them out. Looking at my session stats from last night, I'm no longer on the fence about which stat is more important, the seeing the flop percentage or the showdown percentage. It's clear that the seeing the flop percentage is more important. If you can keep this number under 50, you'll greatly increase your chances of having a winning session. Many of your opponents won't be able to stay below 50, and you'll eat their lunch. I've noted this before, but it still surprises me - you really don't need a lot of winning hands to have a winning session. Last night I only had three, but they turned out to be enough.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 59 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 9 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 6 out of 9 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 13 out of 41 times in other positions (31%)
 - a total of 25 out of 59 (42%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 8 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $5,122
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,043,825
balance: $6,493,233

Shooting the moon

Last night, I had my fifth losing session in a row. If I lose tonight, it'll tie my longest cash game no limit hold'em losing streak. On the last hand of the night, I flopped a nut flush draw. I decided to call an all in bet, when someone acting ahead of me had already called it. Why did I call? I had a hunch I'd hit my flush. I knew I wasn't making the mathematically correct play, but felt like trying to shoot the moon anyway. I just ran the numbers, and ironically, it turns out I actually did make the mathematically correct play. Since I'd gone all in against two other players, I would have tripled up had I won. In order for such a play to pay off over the long haul, I'd need to have had a better than one in three chance of winning the pot. I actually had a 37.43% chance of winning, though there was no way I could have known that at the time.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 89 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
 - 10 out of 13 times while in small blind (76%)
 - 36 out of 63 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 55 out of 89 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 15 (26%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-40,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,038,703
balance: $6,488,111