Friday, October 30, 2015

Aggregate evaluation

When you fail to make the money in any of the sit and gos you play in a single session, it might not be the case that you're not playing well. On the other hand, that might indeed be the case. How can you distinguish a losing session where you played well from one where you played poorly? I've come up with a method. You need to use aggregated past results as a guide, where the aggregation is driven by characteristics of your current session. Let me use last night's session as an example. I played three sit and gos, and failed to make the money in any of them. However, I bubbled two of the three, and all three lasted a fair number of hands. My shortest sit and go lasted 37 hands, and my longest lasted 53. Using those numbers as bookends, I aggregated my results in all sit and go no limit hold'em tournaments which had a length in that range; here are the counts:

+-------+----------+
| place | count(*) |
+-------+----------+
|     1 |       35 |
|     2 |       48 |
|     3 |       62 |
|     4 |       36 |
|     5 |       11 |
+-------+----------+


If all of those 192 tournaments had been played at the $45,000 buy in level, I would have made a profit of $1,078,500 on them. That proves that I was playing quite well indeed last night, even though I failed to make the money. The real lesson here is that when you play sit and gos, you should pay very little attention to the results of any particular session; instead, you should take the long view and look at your results over extended periods of time.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    45     3        0
 45000  5000       6    37     4        0
 45000  5000       6    53     3        0


delta: $-150,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $294,700
balance: $7,385,164

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Epic rebound

One of the reasons it's a little bit insane to play sit and gos is that you don't have to play badly to lose, but you do have to play well to win. That's why I think sit and gos are the biggest challenge in poker. I take a lot of pride in the fact that I've played a ton of sit and gos, and have managed to make a profit playing them. To give you the numbers, I've now played 916 sit and gos, and have made a profit of 275,250 play dollars. My profit would have been much more impressive, had it not been for a 1,000,000 play dollar fingerfehler :-)

You get used to your stack taking big swings when you play sit and gos. This can give rise to some big rebound opportunities. My current definition of a poker rebound uses the following formula:

rebound = min(losing_amount, winning_amount)

where losing_amount is the amount you lost in one session and winning_amount is the amount you won in the very next session. Last night, I had the fourth largest rebound of my career. Here are the top 10:

$358,050 2012-08-16
$302,000 2015-06-08
$291,000 2015-06-17
$200,000 2015-10-28
$156,000 2012-07-20
$147,600 2012-10-06
$147,600 2012-09-05
$145,500 2014-02-12
$144,200 2012-10-28
$144,200 2012-10-08


buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    33     3        0
 45000  5000       6    53     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    97     1   175500


delta: $201,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $444,700
balance: $7,535,164

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

One memorable moment

There are generally very few memorable moments in sessions where you lose 200,000 play dollars. Last night, I had just one. On hand 36 of the third tournament I played, I hit a two outer on the river. I'd been dealt a pair of sixes, and was up against an opponent who'd been dealt ace queen offsuit. He put me all in preflop, and I called. Preflop, I was a 54% favorite. After the flop, which paired his queen, I was a 10.4% dog. After the turn, I was a 4.55% dog. I spiked a six on the river to win the pot. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to parlay that good fortune into a money finish.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    34     5        0
 45000  5000       6    26     4        0
 45000  5000       6    83     3        0
 45000  5000       6    43     4        0


delta: $-200,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $243,700
balance: $7,334,164

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Double first

Continuing a recent trend, I'm reusing a blog post title again. Here's an excerpt from the earlier post, which I wrote on August 13, 2012:

In the British educational system, a double first is an exceptional achievement; it signifies first class honors in parts one and two of one's selected field of study. I'm indebted to my father, who achieved a double first in the natural sciences at King's College Cambridge, for this definition. In poker, a double first is not nearly as exceptional, but is still commendable; it signifies winning two tournaments in a row.

I'll narrow the definition so that it only applies to sessions where I played exactly two tournaments. Under this new definition, I achieved the third double first of my sit and go no limit hold'em career last night.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    51     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    99     1   175500


delta: $251,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $443,700
balance: $7,534,164

Monday, October 26, 2015

New personal best

Last night, in the closing tournament I played, I set a new personal best. That's always satisfying, whether or not I win. Although I came in second, it was my longest sit and go no limit hold'em heads up battle ever - a whopping 87 hands.  This eclipsed the previous record, which weighed in at 74 hands back on August 31st, 2012. For the second session in a row, I lost the minimum amount I could have lost for the number of sessions I played. I'm looking to get back into the win column tonight :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    57     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    49     3        0
 45000  5000       6    28     4        0
 45000  5000       6   127     2    94500


delta: $-11,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $192,700
balance: $7,283,164

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Standardizing

I've come to realize there's a lot to be said for standardizing the way I play poker in various situations. When I play sit and gos, I've standardized on the $45,000 buy in level. It's the one which gives me the best combination of comfort and profit potential. I haven't standardized on the number of tournaments to play during a single session, however. Lately, I've been playing five per session, and I think that's a good number to standardize on. It turns out there are 21 possible profit outcomes when playing five $45,000 buy in sit and gos per session; here they are, in descending order of profit:

 $627,500  5  0
 $546,500  4  1
 $465,500  3  2
 $452,000  4  0
 $384,500  2  3
 $371,000  3  1
 $303,500  1  4
 $290,000  2  2
 $276,500  3  0
 $222,500  0  5
 $209,000  1  3
 $195,500  2  1
 $128,000  0  4
 $114,500  1  2
 $101,000  2  0
  $33,500  0  3
  $20,000  1  1
 $-61,000  0  2
 $-74,500  1  0
$-155,500  0  1
$-250,000  0  0


The number in the second column is the number of first places finishes, and the number in the third column is the number of second place finishes. Last night, I lost the minimum amount possible, which is some consolation :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    13     6        0
 45000  5000       6    31     4        0
 45000  5000       6    83     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    65     3        0
 45000  5000       6    63     2    94500


delta: $-61,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $203,700
balance: $7,294,164

Saturday, October 24, 2015

The mysterious disappearing opponent

I liked the labor-saving method I employed in my last post so much, I'm going to use it again :-) This time, the post I'll repeat verbatim, since it's so apposite to last night's session, comes from September 4th, 2012.

As I've mentioned before, I got into the habit of doing a fair amount of web surfing while playing in my cash game days. When I first started playing sit and go tournaments, I sharply curtailed this practice, believing I needed to pay full attention to everything that was happening at the table, even when I wasn't involved in a hand. Slowly, I've slid back into my old patterns, as I've come to realize that one can do quite well without paying much attention to the hands one isn't involved in. One interesting side effect of this is the phenomenon of the mysterious disappearing opponent. It's often the case that I'll discover that the number of players has diminished by one, or even two, all unbeknownst to me as I was happily surfing. It's a nice surprise, but almost makes me feel a little guilty; someone else did all the work of getting rid of those players, and I get to share the benefit of their absence without even knowing how they hit the felt :-)

buy_in entry_fee num_players num_hands place winnings

 50000       800           6        57     2   105000
 50000       800           6        36     3        0
 50000       800           6        33     2   105000


delta: $57,600
tournament balance: $1,271,090
balance: $6,401,821 


Last night, in the third tournament I played, two opponents were knocked out by a third opponent on hand 2. It was a very pleasant surprise to start hand 3 with two fewer opponents :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    43     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    60     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    41     3        0
 45000  5000       6    31     3        0
 45000  5000       6    18     6        0


delta: $20,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $264,700
balance: $7,355,164

Friday, October 23, 2015

The old one two

I've used this blog post title twice before; the first time was on April 9th, 2014. Rereading that post, it's so relevant to last night's session that I'm just going to be lazy, and quote it in its entirety :-)

I've come up with a good rule of thumb for when to quit a tournament session; I'm calling it the old one two. Briefly stated, you should quit as soon as you've had one first place finish and one second place finish. If you've played six tournaments and still haven't made the money, you should quit at that point also. Last night, I hit the old one two in five tournaments, and lit out for the territories.

buy_in entry_fee num_players num_hands place winnings

 45000      5000           6        41     3        0
 45000      5000           6        14     4        0
 45000      5000           6         7     6        0
 45000      5000           6        35     2    94500
 45000      5000           6        41     1   175500


delta: $20,000
tournament balance: $1,898,840
balance: $8,781,539 


Sad to say, I didn't follow this good advice, but played three more tournaments after getting the old one two straight out of the gate.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    44     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    75     1   175500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    65     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    34     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    63     3        0


delta: $20,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $244,700
balance: $7,335,164

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Evermore session

Last night, I had what I'm calling an evermore session - I played ever more hands in each succeeding tournament. I just searched through my poker data to see how many times that's happened in sessions of 5 or more tournaments. Drumroll, please ...

It happened just once before last night, on August 8th of this year. Considering I've played 82 sessions of 5 or more tournaments, evermore sessions are pretty rare. Interestingly, I didn't make the money in the third tournament I played last night, even though I played more hands that I did in the second tournament, where I made the money.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    15     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    45     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    53     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    55     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    75     2    94500


delta: $33,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $224,700
balance: $7,315,164

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

A jewel in the trash

I'm constantly rooting around in my poker data, looking for patterns and also for outliers. As I've mentioned before, 2015 is my worst poker year by far. It's been so bad that I didn't believe I'd ever find anything remotely positive in the 2015 data. I'm happy to report that I was wrong :-) Yesterday, I found a jewel in the trash. Previously I'd only looked at 2015 numbers broken out by poker style and poker flavor. When I added buy in to the mix, lo and behold I found one big positive result - sit and go no limit hold'em at the $45,000 buy in level. Here are my year-to-date numbers:

 sum(delta)   count   style       flavor               buy_in

   $474,000      78   Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em    $45,000
    $58,400      19   Sit & Go    8-Game               $9,000
    $21,232      52   MTT         No Limit Hold'em       $900
    $18,020      64   MTT         8-Game               $4,500
    $10,000      79   Spin & Go   No Limit Hold'em     $9,200
     $7,400      16   Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em     $9,000
     $4,910       4   Sit & Go    8-Game                 $900
     $2,600       1   Sit & Go    HORSE                  $900
    $-1,000       1   Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em       $900
    $-1,100      31   Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em     $4,500
   $-10,000       1   MTT         No Limit Hold'em     $9,000
   $-10,660       5   MTT         No Limit Hold'em     $4,500
   $-64,160      25   MTT         HORSE                $4,500
  $-135,500      20   Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em    $22,500
  $-429,000      78   Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em    $90,000
  $-600,000      12   Sit & Go    8-Game              $45,000
  $-685,808      52   Cash game   No Limit Hold'em       NULL
$-1,000,000       1   Sit & Go    No Limit Hold'em   $900,000


This is encouraging, and I'll see how well I can do by sticking with this combination for the remainder of the year.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    37     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    20     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    65     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    55     1   175500


delta: $70,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $191,200
balance: $7,281,664

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Unrelenting mediocrity

Last night, I made it to heads up play in 11 of the 12 spin and gos I played, but only won 2 of them. So I was good enough to beat one of two opponents consistently, but not good enough to beat the other. That's what I call unrelenting mediocrity! The bloom is off the rose for me with spin and gos. They really have an absurd value proposition, and basically prey upon your greed. I'm going to return to sit and gos, which also have an absurd value proposition, but the good news is, it's less absurd :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    23     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    16     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    70     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    13     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    28     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    47     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    20     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     3     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    14     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    13     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    48     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    57     2        0


delta: $-80,000
Spin & Go no limit hold'em balance: $10,000
balance: $7,211,664

Monday, October 19, 2015

Five bagger

In 807 sit and go tournaments, my longest in the money streak was 6 tournaments. In only 67 spin and gos, I already have an in the money streak of 5 tournaments, courtesy of my win in the first one I played last night, added to the four straight I won the night before. I think I'm getting the hang of this spin and go thing :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    62     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    28     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    46     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    23     1    40000


delta: $20,000
Spin & Go no limit hold'em balance: $90,000
balance: $7,291,664

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Third perfectfer

When you regularly play multiple tournaments in a session, you must expect ofers every now and then - that is, sessions where you don't win any tournaments at all. Much rarer than ofers are what I call "perfectfers" - sessions where you win every tournament you enter. Last night, I had the third perfectfer of my career, and first spin and go perfectfer. One of the reasons perfectfers are so hard to achieve is that your very success makes you want to continue playing, which often results in the destruction of your perfectfer. My decision to quit after my fourth straight win was made easier by the fact that I'd just won a much larger first place prize than the norm.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    32     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    14     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    27     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    30     1    60000


delta: $80,000
Spin & Go no limit hold'em balance: $70,000
balance: $7,271,664

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Only the spin can save me

Counting last night, I've now played 59 spin and gos. Here's my place count to date:

1  22
2  19
3  18


If the first place prize for a $10,000 buy in were restricted to $20,000, I would have lost $150,000 so far. However, I've only lost $10,000. What does this tell me? Two things:

1. without the spin occasionally bumping up the first place prize amount, spin and gos would have no profit potential whatsoever
2. even with the spin, spin and gos may be a losing proposition

Actually, there's a third thing :-)

3. I never would have played that many spin and gos if I didn't enjoy playing them

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    11     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    48     1    40000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    35     1    40000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    40     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    13     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    45     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    17     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    41     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    38     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     8     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    38     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     3     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    38     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    25     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    20     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    20     3        0


delta: $20,000
Spin & Go no limit hold'em balance: $-10,000
balance: $7,191,664

Friday, October 16, 2015

Career first

The longer your poker career is, the harder it becomes to have a career first. Last night, I had one. On the 1,681th session of my career, I finally had a break even session. If I keep playing spin and gos, I'm liable to have quite a few more. That's all I have to say for this post, since I'm rarin' to get spinnin' :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     8     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     9     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     3     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    31     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    36     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    21     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    25     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    33     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    37     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    18     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    23     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    32     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    29     1    40000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     9     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     4     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    33     1    20000


delta: $0
Spin & Go no limit hold'em balance: $-30,000
balance: $7,171,664

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Super fun

I have to say, spin and gos are super fun to play, even though they don't make much financial sense. I was going to title this post "Spun and gone", since I fully intended to stop playing them, but I just can't do it. Spin and gos are too much fun not to keep playing! I think what I like best about them is the pace - there's very little waiting around. Last night, the pace was so fast that I set a new personal best for number of hands played in a single session - a whopping 511.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    29     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    27     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    57     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    49     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    31     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    60     1    40000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    29     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    19     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     9     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    57     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    20     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    24     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     5     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     2     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    30     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    63     1    40000


delta: $-40,000
Spin & Go no limit hold'em balance: $-30,000
balance: $7,171,664

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Taking a new poker style for a spin

For some time now, I've been aware of a new type of sit and go available on PokerStars, which they've dubbed Spin & Go. My lack of clarity on what it was all about kept me from trying it. My gut feeling was that it had a large component of luck, and that helped keep me away. At the same time, though, I realized that Spin & Gos were growing incredibly popular, and that piqued my curiosity. Finally, yesterday, I decided to find out what all the fuss was about. When I realized that the "spin" part of the arrangement makes it possible to win huge sums of play money without wagering huge sums, Spin & Gos had my full attention :-)

Essentially, a Spin & Go is a three player sit and go with a unique twist - when all three players are seated, the spinning of a prize "wheel" determines what the winning prize amount will be. The winning prize is guaranteed to be at least two times the buy in, but it can balloon up to 3,000 times the buy in. For a $10,000 buy in, that's $30 million, friends and neighbors! I knew I needed in on that action.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     5     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    17     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    14     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3     1     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    22     3        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    15     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    57     1    40000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    10     2        0
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    50     1    20000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    40     1    40000
Sp&Go NLHE     9200   800       3    48     2        0


delta: $10,000
Spin & Go no limit hold'em balance: $10,000
balance: $7,211,664

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Another fingerfehler

Playing sit and gos is challenging enough without making the challenge harder by accidentally selecting a tournament you didn't mean to. Since selections are made by mouse clicks, and since mice are manipulated by fingers, I call mistaken tournament selections fingerfehlers. My most egregious fingerfehler was the time I mistakenly selected a $900,000 buy in tournament when I thought I was selecting one with a $22,500 buy in. Since there was an accompanying $100,000 entry fee, and I didn't make the money, that was a $1,000,000 fingerfehler.

Last night, I had another fingerfehler, but it wasn't nearly as costly. This time, the tournament I selected had the desired buy in of $45,000, but by mistake I chose a hyper tournament instead of a turbo one. In a hyper tournament, everyone starts out starved for chips, so the tournament has a much shorter duration, and luck plays a significantly larger part. Hyper tournaments typically give each player a starting stack of $500, whereas turbo tournaments typically give each player a starting stack of $1,000. Not surprisingly, the hyper tournament had the shortest duration (12 hands) of the five tournaments I played.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    32     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    12     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    70     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    38     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    74     2    94500


delta: $-61,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $121,200
balance: $7,201,664

Monday, October 12, 2015

50 million play dollars wagered

If you're old enough (as I am), you'll remember that for many years, McDonald's proudly boasted of how many burgers they'd served in their history. They included the number on their neon signs, and regularly updated it. I forget how big it had gotten by the time they stopped this practice, but it was somewhere in the billions.

This is all by way of trying to extenuate the braggadocio of this post's title :-)  Let's face it, any way you slice it, 50 million is a lot of play dollars to have wagered playing sit and gos, and I'm proud of achieving this milestone.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    43     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    89     1   175500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    83     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    82     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    32     4        0


delta: $114,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $182,200
balance: $7,262,664

Sunday, October 11, 2015

All in on sit and gos

I have a love / hate relationship with sit and gos. I love them when I'm in the sweetness, and hate them when I'm in a slump. Despite having played 869 of them, though, I don't think I've ever really given them the chance they deserve. I've decided to go all in on them for the rest of 2015. There are several reasons why. The foremost one is that they provide action in a way no other poker flavor can. No matter how much I've tried to tell myself that I don't mind the small sums I can win playing MTT NLHEs, I really do mind. It's like playing miniature poker, or watching myself playing poker through the wrong end of a pair of binoculars. It's all very well to clean up in Lilliput, but at the end of the day, you end up with a rounding error of what you could have earned if you'd played in Brobdingnag.

I decided to swear off sit and gos "for good" when I realized that by upping the entry fees dramatically, PokerStars had made it dramatically more difficult to make a profit playing them. If there's anything I've learned in my 7+ years of playing online poker, it's that no "for good" decision lasts forever :-) I've also learned that I like wagering big sums, and like winning big sums even better.

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       9     9    783   189   340        0
  4500   500       9     5    235    54   152        0


style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    44     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    83     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6     7     5        0


delta: $-61,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $67,700
balance: $7,148,164

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Redraw adieux

In poker parlance, a redraw is what it's called when an underdog who is well behind in a hand suddenly takes the lead. Lately, my exits from MTT NLHEs have largely been of the being-on-the-wrong-end-of-a-redraw variety. I call such exits redraw adieux. Strange as it may seem at first, this is my preferred way to go out of a tournament. It's not so strange when you consider that such exits validate my poker instincts. If something unusual doesn't happen, I win the hand. If something unusual does happen, I'm out, but that's poker :-)

Last night, I was actually a slight underdog preflop on my final hand, so I can't officially call my exit a redraw adieu. It was closely related to one, though, as I flopped a monster which then ran into a redraw. I'd been dealt ace jack suited, and was up against a pair of fives. I called all in preflop, and was a 48.25% underdog at that point. When I flopped a set of jacks, I became a 92.63% favorite. My opponent spiked a five on the turn, though, and that was all she wrote. Thankfully for me, I was already in the money at the time :-)

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       9    76    1239  315   157     2620


delta: $1,620
MTT NLHE balance: $-1,828
balance: $7,209,664

Friday, October 9, 2015

Quad deuces redux

Just two nights after running into quad deuces on the final hand of an MTT NLHE, it happened again. The first time, as you recall, my losing hand was a full house, queens full of deuces. This time, my losing hand was a full house, deuces full of nines. Strangely enough, this happened on the second MTT NLHE of the session again, and I made the money again. In fact, it was the only tournament where I made the money last night.

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       6    29    1135  264   315        0
   900   100       9    25     970  243   223     1527
   900   100       9    24     891  216   234        0


delta: $-1,473
MTT NLHE balance: $-3,448
balance: $7,208,044

Thursday, October 8, 2015

The MTT NLHE golden ratio

Counting last night, I've now played 47 MTT NLHEs at the $900 buy in level. I've made the money in 26 of them. That translates to a success rate of just over 55%. That feels like the right number to aim for to achieve tournament success. Let's turn that into a golden ratio. Every 100 tournaments, I aim to win 55, which means I end up losing 45. Therefore, the golden ratio is 55 / 45, or 1.222222...

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       9    85     783  189    37     3960


delta: $2,960
MTT NLHE balance: $-1,975
balance: $7,209,517

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Case carded

When you're heads up on the turn, the worst beat you can take is when only one of the forty-four possible river cards can beat you, and yet that's the very card which gets dealt. That happened to me on the final hand of the second MTT NLHE I played last night. I'd been dealt pocket queens, and was up against an opponent who'd been dealt pocket deuces; I was an 81.58% favorite at that point. My opponent hit a set of deuces on the flop; he was an 84.14% favorite at that point. I hit a set of queens on the turn; I was an 97.73% favorite at that point. Finally, he hit quad deuces on the river, when the case deuce appeared. By the way, poker commentators call the fourth card of a particular denomination which shows up the case card, since when three have already shown up, there's only one more such card left in the case. I'm sure that my losing hand of queens full of deuces is the best hand I've ever hit the felt with in an MTT NLHE.

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       6    36    1036  264   235     1538
   900   100       6    75     877  216    76     2880


delta: $2,418
MTT NLHE balance: $-4,935
balance: $7,206,557

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Opening non-salvo

I have the ability to sense outliers in real time, as they occur. It's a funny feeling, realizing that history is in the making :-) I had this feeling during the first MTT NLHE I played last night. I was slightly off in my dynamic analysis, though; convinced that I was recording the lowest seeing the flop percentage of my MTT NLHE career, the percentage actually came in second lowest. However, there was another statistic that was a true outlier - namely, the number of hands played without seeing a flop from the start of a tournament. In last night's first MTT NLHE, that came out to a staggering 22, obliterating my previous record of 12.

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       9    31     891  216   166     1764
   900   100       9    61     783  189    67     3157


delta: $2,921
MTT NLHE balance: $-7,353
balance: $7,204,139

Monday, October 5, 2015

A ladder up fold

Poker commentators often talk of "laddering up" in tournaments. What this generally means is a situation where passive play allows a player to hang on long enough to achieve a money jump, due to multiple other players hitting the felt from more aggressive play. Last night, I was able to ladder up by folding in the small blind on my penultimate hand, even though I only had $42 in chips left. That decision luckily translated into a $209 money jump, which is significant when you're down on the low rungs of the payout ladder.

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       9    49    1139  279   304        0
   900   100       9    64    1053  279   126     2464


delta: $464
MTT NLHE balance: $-10,274
balance: $7,201,218

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Sick of cash games

Every time I try returning to cash games, I quickly get sick of them. It happened again. Last night, as a result, I returned to MTT NLHEs. I just find them a lot more fun to play, even though there's precious little play money to be had from them.

My original goal on PokerStars was to win a lot of play money to prove how good a poker player I was, to myself and others. I proved it to myself long ago, and no longer feel such a need to prove it to others. I still feel the need to challenge myself, however.

I've decided to set myself a new long term challenge - I want to play hundreds of MTT NLHEs, and consistently make the money in half of them.

buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

   900   100       6    30     816  192   267        0


delta: $-1,000
MTT NLHE balance: $-10,738
balance: $7,200,754

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Down and out

It's never a good feeling to hit the felt. It's even worse when the hand which takes you there supplies you with your worst hand delta of the session. Probably the best thing to do at that point is quit for the night. That's what I did at the end of Thursday night's session. I call such hands "down and out" hands. I just ran the numbers, and discovered that 72 of the 786 cash game no limit hold'em sessions for which I have the hand histories ended with a "down and out" hand.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 50 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 8 times while in big blind (62%)
 - 3 out of 8 times while in small blind (37%)
 - 15 out of 34 times in other positions (44%)
 - a total of 23 out of 50 (46%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 5 (20%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,912,523
balance: $7,201,754

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Table boss

Last night, a huge pot on hand 2 made me the table boss, and I stayed in that position for the remainder of the session. I'm sure that's the longest stretch of hands I've ever been the chip leader. Usually, I feel uncomfortable being the frontrunner, but that wasn't the case last night. You can really pick your spots to apply pressure on your opponents when you're way ahead, and that's just what I did.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 61 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 7 times while in big blind (57%)
 - 2 out of 9 times while in small blind (22%)
 - 16 out of 45 times in other positions (35%)
 - a total of 22 out of 61 (36%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 4 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $115,506
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,012,523
balance: $7,301,754