Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Another club flush

Last night, for the second session in a row, I got a massive chip infusion at the end by hitting a club flush. I have a gut feeling this is the first time I've ever had back-to-back sessions end in so similar fashion. Of course, this only strengthens my love for flushes and for clubs.

My current strategy for having a winning session is as follows:

1. join a table with at least two players having close to $80,000 in chips, and with at least three of the other four having over $40,000

2. fold early and often

3. be patient

4. wait for a monster hand, go all in, and see where you end up

The two likeliest outcomes of such a strategy:

1. I double up
2. I hit the felt

If the doubling up outcome is slightly more likely than the hitting the felt outcome, this strategy will pay off over time, although it could end up doing serious damage to my winning session to losing session ratio.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 56 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 10 times while in big blind (30%)
- 4 out of 10 times while in small blind (40%)
- 21 out of 36 times in other positions (58%)
- a total of 28 out of 56 (50%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 9 (66%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $38,750
balance: $3,257,829

Monday, February 27, 2012

Double pleasure

On Saturday night, one hand gave me double pleasure. I made a flush, which is my favorite type of hand, and it was in clubs, which is my favorite suit. Not only that, it was the nut flush, since one of my hole cards was the ace of clubs. I won a pot worth $60,000, $34,000 of which was other people's money. Sweet!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 8 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
- 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
- 1 out of 6 times in other positions (16%)
- a total of 3 out of 8 (37%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $34,100
balance: $3,219,079

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Straighten up and fly right

Last night, my session was saved by my least favorite hand - a straight. Why is a straight my least favorite hand? For the simple reason that it frequently fails to live up to its billing. By rights, a straight should be an awesome hand; however, all too often, I see it done in by a higher straight, or by a flush. You just can't trust a straight. Except when you can :-)

I had to be patient, waiting for my big pot to come; sometimes, they never do. I was underwater for 149 of 159 hands (93.7%). On hand 158, I flopped a king high straight, got into a brief raising war with one opponent, and put him all in. His flopped set of tens got crushed; I won a pot worth $42,800 to nearly double up, and exited stage left.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 159 hands and saw flop:
- 19 out of 23 times while in big blind (82%)
- 14 out of 25 times while in small blind (56%)
- 64 out of 111 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 97 out of 159 (61%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 19 (52%)
Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $7,833
balance: $3,184,979

Friday, February 24, 2012

Permission to gamble

Last night, the poker gods gave me permission to gamble when I got an early lift. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to parlay it into a massive gain, but took a shot. On hand 17, I was dealt As 8d, and the flop came Qs 3s 2s. An opponent went all in, and I called his $9,600 bet. He turned over pocket rockets, which made me a 36% underdog. I got air on both the turn and the river, and he won a pot worth $27,800. I lost $11,600 on the hand, but still had more than my starting stack at the end of it.

Though I was winning more than my fair share of pots, my stack still porpoised; I decided to call it a night when I finally won a $5,700 pot after a long dry spell.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 43 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 4 times while in big blind (100%)
- 3 out of 5 times while in small blind (60%)
- 24 out of 34 times in other positions (70%)
- a total of 31 out of 43 (72%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 13 (76%)
Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $5,800
balance: $3,177,146

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Calling with kings

Certain hands are worth calling all the way down the line. That's what I did last night, on just the third hand. I was dealt a pair of kings, and the flop came rainbow small (9s 7c 3d). There were three of us in the hand; one opponent was doing all the betting, and the remaining opponent and I were content just to call. My kings held up, and I won a pot worth $31,100.

I've found that calling generally keeps the bettor guessing, whereas raising can give them a better read on your hand. Often, if you raise, you're inviting a reraise from the original bettor. I actually prefer to win big pots by calling.

I won a smaller pot immediately after winning the big pot, and decided to call it a night since I'd made half my initial stack in profit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 5 hands and saw flop:
- 1 out of 1 times while in big blind (100%)
- 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
- 4 out of 4 times in other positions (100%)
- a total of 5 out of 5 (100%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 2 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $20,500
balance: $3,171,346

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Chicago poker

On Monday night, I joined a table which had some very heavy bettors. If you don't want to hit the felt quickly when in this situation, you have to adopt a strategy I'll call "Chicago poker"; the leitmotif of this strategy is "Fold early and often" :-)

One of the players in particular was a spectacular risk-taker; while I was at the table, he lost $400,600. Every time he hit the felt, he'd immediately reup for the maximum initial stake of $40,000. He never slowed down his manic betting pattern, frequently going all in. He basically met with one of two outcomes every time he did this:

1. everyone else would fold, and he'd win a paltry amount
2. one or more people would call him, and he'd lose the hand and hit the felt

I knew if I could just hang in there, folding away, eventually I'd get a hand I could really back. That turned out to be the case; on hand 53, I went all in to win a pot worth $49,800.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 54 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 7 times while in big blind (42%)
- 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
- 17 out of 39 times in other positions (43%)
- a total of 24 out of 54 (44%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 5 (40%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $9,400
balance: $3,150,846

Monday, February 20, 2012

Futile perfection

When you love probability, you find yourself appreciating the beauty of futile perfection, even when it's at your expense. On Saturday night, I hit the felt in 31 hands. I didn't win a single pot. I only went to showdown 3 times. The bar chart of my stack size over time shows a steady, stately descent to zero. Sometimes, there's nothing you can do to prevent a result like this. All you can do is sit back and enjoy its perfection.

I reupped for the max, and played even poker for another 50 odd hands before hitting a pothole; I lost $14,428 on a hand I got too frisky on. Unfortunately, before I had a chance to build my stack back up, the table quit on me. I decided that was a sign to call it a night. Due to the oddity of the table quitting on me, I forgot to save the final stats.

number of hands played: 85

delta: $-54,826
balance: $3,141,446

Saturday, February 18, 2012

The midpoint hypothesis

Last night, I kept the streak alive; I won my third session in a row. Considering how things have been going lately, that's a major accomplishment! Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session, a new poker theory occurred to me; I call it the midpoint hypothesis. The hypothesis is simply this: if in every poker session you played you were somehow able magically to quit at the halfway point, over time your performance would go through the roof.

It's rather a silly theory, but absurdly easy to prove or disprove. The reason it's silly is that you can never quit halfway through a session, for the simple reason that the fact that you're halfway through the session means that you didn't quit. It's easy to prove or disprove; just compare the size of your stack at the halfway point to the size of your stack at the end of the session.

Last night, I played 91 hands. The exact halfway point would be 45.5 hands, which is impossible, so let's round it up to 46. At the start of hand 46, I had $45,700 in chips. At the end of hand 91, I had $50,700 in chips. So for this particular session, the midpoint hypothesis fails; however, the true test of the hypothesis is when you look at the cumulative result over many sessions. I'll calculate it soon and report back to you.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 91 hands and saw flop:
- 13 out of 17 times while in big blind (76%)
- 13 out of 17 times while in small blind (76%)
- 45 out of 57 times in other positions (78%)
- a total of 71 out of 91 (78%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 10 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 13

delta: $10,700
balance: $3,196,272

Friday, February 17, 2012

Dynamic duos

Last night, I had my second winning session in a row - a dynamic duo. Twice, I won when I'd been dealt a pair of twos - another dynamic duo. At the very end of the session, I won two big pots in a row - a final dynamic duo. Fittingly, I doubled up on the night.

Halfway through the session, I'd built my stack up to $60,000. It slid all the way back down to below $40,000 before the big hands hit. This illustrates a couple of poker truths:

1. you have to give to get
2. you have to be patient

I played pretty tightly for the most part; I'll continue that for a while, to see if I can keep this mini win streak going.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 110 hands and saw flop:
- 16 out of 18 times while in big blind (88%)
- 14 out of 17 times while in small blind (82%)
- 50 out of 75 times in other positions (66%)
- a total of 80 out of 110 (72%)
Pots won at showdown - 13 of 24 (54%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $45,400
balance: $3,185,572

Thursday, February 16, 2012

I'd rather be good

Last night, I won a huge pot on hand 15 which I never should have won. I failed to see that the turn card put 3 cards to a straight on the board; I was too excited by the fact that the board only had 2 cards to a flush to notice. I'd hit a stealth top two pair on the flop, and believed my hand was untouchable. I went all in and got two callers. One of them had made his straight on the turn; that meant there were only four cards which could win the pot for me. I lucked out and hit one of them on the river to win the pot, which was worth $134,400. Nominally, my odds were 4 out of 44, or 9%; in actuality, though, they were even lower than that, since some or all of my outs could already have been mucked.

I wasn't happy with my play on that hand; I'd much rather be good than simply lucky. However, I accepted the chip influx with gratitude!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 16 hands and saw flop:
- 2 out of 3 times while in big blind (66%)
- 1 out of 3 times while in small blind (33%)
- 7 out of 10 times in other positions (70%)
- a total of 10 out of 16 (62%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 3 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $94,000
balance: $3,140,172

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Roller coaster

The bar chart of my balance since December 1st of last year resembles a roller coaster. After losing close to $80,000 last night, I'm in danger of falling below the three million mark. My audacious goal of winning $3,000,000 in a calendar year is exposed for being vainglorious and laughably unrealistic. I'll have to scale back, and set my sights on the much more modest and attainable goal of $1,000,000 in a calendar year.

I certainly didn't play well last night, but no one hand stands out as having been egregiously badly played. I wasn't card dead, but was mostly "luck dead". At the end of the night, I got really lucky when I won a $17,100 pot as an 18% underdog, for a delta of $10,000. Wouldn't you know it, I didn't have the good sense to quit right then, and four hands later, gave it all back.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 84 hands and saw flop:
- 10 out of 11 times while in big blind (90%)
- 10 out of 11 times while in small blind (90%)
- 39 out of 62 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 59 out of 84 (70%)
Pots won at showdown - 4 of 10 (40%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $-75,100
balance: $3,046,172

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Accentuating the positive

Last night, I had another losing session again, so the churn continues. Despite losing, though, I can still find some positives in my play. For one thing, I played 200 hands and avoided hitting the felt, which is an achievement in itself. For another, I won the hand that had the biggest absolute value delta, and five of the top ten absolute value delta hands. Lastly, I made no gaffes all night; the hands that beat me, beat me fair and square. You can't really ask for much more than that.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 200 hands and saw flop:
- 33 out of 39 times while in big blind (84%)
- 26 out of 40 times while in small blind (65%)
- 69 out of 121 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 128 out of 200 (64%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 31 (35%)
Pots won without showdown - 22

delta: $-23,100
balance: $3,121,272

Monday, February 13, 2012

Applicable chess advice

On Saturday night, I had a winning session. The form it took reminded me of some advice I read long ago in a book of chess instruction. The author said that in order to win a game of chess, it's necessary to win the opening, the middlegame, and the endgame. It's not sufficient simply to win the opening, or simply to win the opening and the middlegame. You can't rest on your laurels; you must stay vigilant throughout the game. The same is true of poker. If you let your concentration slip just once, your night could easily be over.

The truth is, it's much easier to lose a game of chess than it is to win one; there are so many different ways to lose, but very few ways to win. It's also much easier to lose a poker session than to win one, although sometimes winning seems very easy. On Saturday night, I played about as well as I know how to play, and only came out with a modest profit. I think the quality of play of my opponents has been much better lately; I definitely need to adjust for this. Poker is a game of constant adjustment; nothing ever stays the same. That's definitely part of its appeal!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 145 hands and saw flop:
- 23 out of 29 times while in big blind (79%)
- 24 out of 33 times while in small blind (72%)
- 47 out of 83 times in other positions (56%)
- a total of 94 out of 145 (64%)
Pots won at showdown - 17 of 23 (73%)
Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $16,410
balance: $3,144,372

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Churn

In the telecommunications industry, they have a word for the rate of customer turnover - churn. When a company has a high churn rate, it's not a good sign. Of course, the concept of churn is applicable in many other environments. Including, for example, poker :-) Right now, I have a high churn rate for sessions which begin a winning or losing streak. In other words, I'm neither consistently winning nor consistently losing. I'm basically winning every other session, which also means I'm losing every other session.

Last night, I hit the felt twice. The first time was due to being overly frisky; the second time was due to a combination of bad luck and impatience.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 83 hands and saw flop:
- 7 out of 11 times while in big blind (63%)
- 6 out of 11 times while in small blind (54%)
- 36 out of 61 times in other positions (59%)
- a total of 49 out of 83 (59%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 13 (23%)
Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-80,000
balance: $3,127,962

Friday, February 10, 2012

Post-mortem analysis

As in chess, post-mortem analysis in poker can be very enlightening. After last night's session, which was a losing one, I thought I'd played rather poorly. Looking back over selected hands now, though, I can see I was actually playing quite well. What colored my immediate perceptions of my performance was the fact that I'd had a losing session. It's important to try to fight that tendency. Within reason, it doesn't matter how many losing sessions you have, as long as you're playing well. Playing well means making the right poker decisions. A good poker decision has nothing to do with whether or not you ultimately win the pot; it's simply making the correct play in a particular situation.

Why did I amend my assessment? Due to my post-mortem analysis of the three hands where I lost the largest amount of chips.

On hand 30, I lost $13,800. I hit a jack high flush on the river, but lost to an ace high flush. Was I correct to stay in the hand? Yes.

On hand 39, I lost $5,600. I was dealt Qh As, the flop came 4s Ah Tc, and the turn was the three of spades. An opponent went all in on the turn, and it would have cost me $14,400 to call. I figured he had at least two pair or a set, and folded. Was I correct to fold? Yes. Was I correct to have stayed in the hand as long as I had? Yes again.

On hand 55, I lost $5,200. I hit a king high straight on the river, but the river card also put three cards to a flush on the board. I bet $600, an opponent raised me up to $5,000, and I called. My straight lost to his flush. Was I correct to call? This one isn't as straightforward as the first two. I thought my opponent was bluffing, but was wrong. I was probably more in the wrong than in the right on this one.

If the first hand had gone my way, as it easily could have, I would have won $42,600, instead of losing $13,800. That was the difference between a winning session and a losing session right there.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 90 hands and saw flop:
- 11 out of 12 times while in big blind (91%)
- 7 out of 13 times while in small blind (53%)
- 39 out of 65 times in other positions (60%)
- a total of 57 out of 90 (63%)
Pots won at showdown - 2 of 10 (20%)
Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $-23,400
balance: $3,207,962

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Chips lost at showdown

Friends and neighbors, it's that time again. Yes indeed, I'd like to impart to you anew the secret of poker. As always, the secret's very simple - to state, that is :-) It's devilishly hard to put into practice, but that's another story. The secret is simply this - to succeed at poker, you must minimize the chips you lose at showdown. One sure-fire way to do this is to minimize the number of times you go to showdown; however, if you take this strategy to the extreme, though you'll be guaranteed never to lose any chips at showdown, you'll also be guaranteed never to win many chips at all, since the only chips you'll ever win will be when no one goes to showdown, and you're the only one left standing.

Last night, I only lost at showdown three times; the total amount I lost at showdown amounted only to $3,800. My new poker rule of thumb is that in general you'll have a winning session if the total amount you lose at showdown is less than or equal to a quarter of your starting stack amount. At some point I'll run the numbers on my historical data and see how this hypothesis holds up.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 59 hands and saw flop:
- 11 out of 12 times while in big blind (91%)
- 8 out of 12 times while in small blind (66%)
- 22 out of 35 times in other positions (62%)
- a total of 41 out of 59 (69%)
Pots won at showdown - 8 of 11 (72%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $17,100
balance: $3,231,362

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

The trouble with rockets

Last night, I played near the top of my game. Unfortunately, I got a bad beat about a quarter of the way through the session, lost a ton of chips on that hand, and was playing catch up the rest of the night. I never did make it back into the black. On the bad beat hand, I was dealt pocket rockets, got into a brief pre-flop raising war with them, and ended up going all in. I was up against an opponent who'd been dealt pocket queens, and was an 81% favorite. However, I lost; he hit a set of queens on the flop, and they held up. Luckily for me, I'd had more chips than he did at the start of the hand, so I avoided hitting the felt.

The trouble with rockets is that they're so hard to lay down! I take solace in the fact that I did nothing wrong on the bad beat hand.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 80 hands and saw flop:
- 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
- 7 out of 11 times while in small blind (63%)
- 41 out of 57 times in other positions (71%)
- a total of 56 out of 80 (70%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 13 (46%)
Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-23,568
balance: $3,214,262

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

One and done

Last night, I had a one and done session. I more than doubled up on my very first hand, folded the second one, and got out of Dodge. Since I started recording the number of hands played per session, I've had three one and done sessions; the other two were in pot limit hold'em. For the record, I was dealt a pair of queens and hit a set on the flop; a bigger stack put me all in on the river, and I happily called.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 2 hands and saw flop:
- 0 out of 0 times while in big blind (0%)
- 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
- 1 out of 2 times in other positions (50%)
- a total of 1 out of 2 (50%)
Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $59,800
balance: $3,237,830

Monday, February 6, 2012

The Lazarus imperative

Last Wednesday night, I hit the felt at the end of a long session. Looking at the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the night, I can clearly identify where I should have called it a night. Of course, hindsight is 20/20. Nevertheless, I'm inspired to formulate another poker rule of thumb; I'm calling it the Lazarus imperative. Here it is: if at some point your stack falls below the Lazarus line, and you manage to bring it back within shouting distance of your starting stack amount, call it a night. My stack hit $4,894 on hand 48, which is well below the Lazarus line of 22 percent of the starting stack amount ($40,000 * .22 = $8,800). On hand 87, my stack had bounced back to $39,582. If it had topped $40,000, I'm sure I would have quit; I kept playing since I wanted to have another winning session. That was a mistake. It's a mistake to ignore how much luck you've had in a session, since the more luck you've had, the less luck you're likely to have. Bouncing back from Lazarus territory means you've had a ton of luck.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 115 hands and saw flop:
- 16 out of 24 times while in big blind (66%)
- 15 out of 24 times while in small blind (62%)
- 32 out of 67 times in other positions (47%)
- a total of 63 out of 115 (54%)
Pots won at showdown - 11 of 16 (68%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $-40,000
balance: $3,178,030

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Laying off the high fastball

Last night, I had a solid, workmanlike session. There were no fireworks; I didn't win any really big pots. The hands I won didn't make a lasting impression on me; what I remember the best is a hand I laid down. The flop had given me four cards to a flush, and one of my opponents bet enough to put me all in if I called. It would have cost me a little over $17,000. I thought about it for about five seconds, then made the right play and folded. Neither the turn nor the river was a heart. I was proud of being able to lay off the high fastball; they certainly are tempting!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 37 hands and saw flop:
- 3 out of 5 times while in big blind (60%)
- 3 out of 4 times while in small blind (75%)
- 16 out of 28 times in other positions (57%)
- a total of 22 out of 37 (59%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $38,000
balance: $3,218,030