Friday, June 30, 2017

The jettisoned caboose

There's nothing quite so lonely as the feeling of being in a caboose which has been jettisoned from a train, just before you were about to pass into the car in front of it. You can see the train pulling away from you, tantalizingly close, but forever out of your reach. The forward momentum from when you were still connected to the train still pulls you after it, but not fast enough, and fades fast. That's precisely the feeling I get when I bubble a tournament. Last night, I bubbled another MTT-R NLHE. It's much easier to bubble MTT-R NLHEs than it is to bubble MTT NLHEs, for the simple reason that there are many fewer entries; will fewer total places to work with, every possible outcome becomes more likely.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    24      76   18    36        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      57   12    13        0


delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $8,440,000
2017 balance: $9,250,525
balance: $20,668,355

Thursday, June 29, 2017

yaps: ftpomf

It's been a while since I've introduced yaps (yet another poker statistic); I now submit a new one for your consideration, ftpomf. ftpomf stands for final table percentage of money finishes; in other words, what percentage of in-the-money finishes were final tables. Currently, my MTTR NLHE ftpomf is 50% - 10 final tables in 20 money finishes. For comparison purposes, my MTT nlhe ftpomf is 7.66% - 20 of 261.

It turns out that 50% isn't so impressive. For MTT NLHE, the final table places are on average just 12.55% of the number of paid places. For MTT-R NLHE, the final table places are on average a whopping 55.58% of the number of paid places. Yet another reason to love MTT-R NLHE :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      58   12    30        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   132      54   12     4  1107000


delta: $507,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $8,840,000
2017 balance: $9,650,525
balance: $21,068,355

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Farewell, my shovely

I've now played nearly 1,000 MTTs of one style or another, and I've only come in first twice. What this means in practical terms is that 99.8% of the time, I'm going to lose the final hand of a tournament. I'm going to get all my chips in the middle, and then go bust. I often go back to the archives to look at the final hand of a tournament, to see if I got my money in good. If I did, that's a "Farewell, my shovely" situation. This translates roughly to:

1. I had a hand good enough to shove with
2. I shoved accordingly
3. I ended up losing the hand, but have no regrets

Last night, the first two tournaments I played were "Farewell, my shovelies". In the first one, my final hand was pocket kings. In the second, my final hand was KQo (king queen offsuit).

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    43500  6500       9     4      58   12     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      69   15    52        0
MTT   NLHE    17500  2500       6    60     333   84    58    40700


delta: $-179,300
MTT NLHE balance: $2,601,668
2017 balance: $9,143,525
balance: $20,561,355

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Approaching 50

On Sunday night, I played my 48th MTT-R. I'll hit 50 either tonight or tomorrow night. 50 is a small sample size, but it's big enough for me to know that MTT-Rs are a colossal poker profit machine for me. There's no guarantee they'll stay that way, but I'm going to ride this revenue rocket as long as I can :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    70      73   15    20        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $8,483,000
2017 balance: $9,322,825
balance: $20,740,655

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Fastest 10 million

When I started this blog, I didn't know for sure if I'd ever achieve my original goal of winning a million play dollars. When I achieved it, I had to think of other goals to shoot for. One was to see just how fast I could win a play million, now that I knew it was possible :-) The fastest I've ever won a play million is in a single session, and I've now done that six times, including last night. With last night's bonanza, I decided to figure out how fast I've ever won 10 play million. The answer? 154 sessions. To be precise, the most recent 154 :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      87   18    46        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   202      79   18     3  2209000


delta: $1,909,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $8,633,000
2017 balance: $9,472,825
balance: $20,890,655

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Third largest single session loss

The title of this post says it all. Last night, I had the third largest single session loss of my career. I fared worse than I had in 99.86% of all the sessions I've ever played. Does this worry me, though? Not a bit. Why not? For the simple reason that I was playing well. Simply put, I'd rather play well and lose than play poorly and win.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    78      84   18    25        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      65   15    37        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    76      61   15    23        0


delta: $-650,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $6,724,000
2017 balance: $7,563,825
balance: $18,981,655

Friday, June 23, 2017

Trigger happy

Before last night, the most bullets I'd ever fired in an MTT-R was 7, and I'd only done that once. For some reason, I got trigger happy last night, and fired 9 bullets in the only tournament I entered. That's clearly way too many. The best proof of that is that although I came in 11th, I still lost money. I wagered $450,000, and only won back $401,000. I promise my trigger finger will be less itchy tonight :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   142     106   27    11   401000


delta: $-49,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,374,000
2017 balance: $8,213,825
balance: $19,631,655

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Tumble dry

During a tournament, I like to keep track of how well I'm doing compared to the other players. The PokerStars software makes this very easy; there's a tournament lobby window which is constantly updating how many chips each player has and where that places them; the players are listed in descending order of chip count. One interesting side effect of all this "lobby watching" is that I've gotten to know who the habitual MTT-R players are. I'm one myself :-) I've gained a healthy respect for these players, and keep close tabs on where they stand. Another interesting side effect is that because I keep an eye on them, I really get a sense of how tournaments put everybody through the ringer; no one is spared. It's like we're all socks in a laundromat dryer, taking turns being on top of the pile, on the bottom, and anywhere in between. We tumble dry, until we tumble out of the tournament :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      66   15    20        0


delta: $-250,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,423,000
2017 balance: $8,262,825
balance: $19,680,655

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Extrapolated profit: 18 million

2017 has truly been an outlier year for me, poker-wise. Prior to this year, it took me over 8 years to amass 11.3 million in profit. In the first half of this year, I've already made an additional 8.5 million. My extrapolated profit for the year is 18 million, which would bring my overall balance to nearly 30 million. These are the best old days!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    93      94   27    25   211000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      69   15    15   324000


delta: $235,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,673,000
2017 balance: $8,512,825
balance: $19,930,655

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Getting it in good

It's a foregone conclusion that to do well in a tournament, periodically you're going to have to go all in. When you do, you always hope that you're "getting it in good" - i.e., that you're a healthy favorite to win the hand. When you're playing well, more often than not you do get it in good. If you hit the rail on a bad beat, that's unfortunate, but it doesn't negate the fact that you were a favorite. As long as you're committed to playing poker over the long haul, and continue to get it in good, you'll be fine.

Last night, I hit the rail in the first MTT-R I joined after getting it in good; my opponent spiked a wheel (a five high straight) on the river. I was a 90.91% favorite after the turn, and my opponent had only four outs. He needed to hit one of the four fives in the deck, and did. I've played long enough that I was able to be completely philosophical about what happened.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      80   18    35        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    77      73   15    15   327000


delta: $77,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,438,000
2017 balance: $8,277,825
balance: $19,695,655

Monday, June 19, 2017

Late starts lead to early finishes

Last Thursday night, I started playing so late that I didn't have time to wait for an MTT-R NLHE tournament. Instead, I jumped into a MTT NLHE whose late registration period was almost over. I hit the rail just 9 hands later. Undeterred, I jumped into another MTT NLHE, and hit the rail just 11 hands after that. My average loss per hand on the night was therefore a whopping $5,000, which comes in second on my all time worst list for MTT NLHEs. Tonight, it's back to MTT-R NLHE.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6     9     116   30    49        0
MTT   NLHE    44000  6000       9    11     177   36    74        0


delta: $-100,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,601,668
2017 balance: $8,200,825
balance: $19,618,655

Thursday, June 15, 2017

A short time under the lights

It's always a good thing to get under the lights. Sometimes, though, there's not a whole lot you can do when you get there. In the second tournament I played last night, here were the chip counts when the final table started:

Seat 1: (107613 in chips)
Seat 2: (200930 in chips)
Seat 3: neostreet (9790 in chips)
Seat 4: (48558 in chips)
Seat 5: (54831 in chips)
Seat 6: (34151 in chips)
Seat 7: (64250 in chips)
Seat 8: (44981 in chips)
Seat 9: (99396 in chips)


I had just 1.47% of the chips in play. As you might expect, I didn't last long; 5 hands, to be precise. Still, I'll take that result any day.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    15      83   18    56        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   121      82   18     9   463000


delta: $113,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,361,000
2017 balance: $8,300,825
balance: $19,718,655

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

An exaltation of aces

I had another stupendous result last night. Once again, I came in second in an MTT-R, this time for a profit of over 2 and a half million play dollars. This was due in no small part to my receiving from the poker gods an exaltation of aces. I got dealt pocket rockets four times in 161 hands, which is 5.49 times their normal frequency. My MTT-R balance broke the 7 million barrier, my 2017 balance broke the 8 million barrier, and my overall balance broke the 19 million barrier. Apart from simply reporting these numbers, I'm speechless.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    43      83   18    51        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   161      63   15     2  2891000


delta: $2,691,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $7,248,000
2017 balance: $8,187,825
balance: $19,605,655

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Musical chairs

Last night, I bubbled another MTT-R. When a tournament gets down to the money bubble, it's a lot like musical chairs. No one wants to be the one left standing. As a consequence, play tightens up dramatically. This particular bubble lasted a goodish number of hands. At one point, I had a bigger stack than about 5 other players, but alas, it just wasn't meant to be. I feel like I'm due for a big profit soon :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      91   27    28        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,557,000
2017 balance: $5,496,825
balance: $16,914,655

Monday, June 12, 2017

Sleepyhead

I'm pretty sure I set a personal record last night, but it wasn't the kind you want to set. I should have gone to bed after playing the first tournament of the night, but registered for another one instead. I was very sleepy, and had a hard time keeping my eyes open when it wasn't my turn to act. The danger of doing this is not opening your eyes in time, and getting auto sat out. I napped through the final 17 hands of the second tournament, and woke up to discover I'd hit the rail. Of course, it's possible that I did better than I would have done had I been awake, but it's a foregone conclusion that you can't win a tournament while sitting (or I should say sleeping) out.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    46      82   18    55        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    66      75   15    35        0


delta: $-350,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,707,000
2017 balance: $5,646,825
balance: $17,064,655

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Profit machine

Right now, MTT with rebuys NLHE tournaments are a profit machine for me; I'm averaging $174,379 a tournament. For comparison purposes, I'm only averaging $34,823 a tournament with my next best style and flavor, MTT with bounties NLHE. Cash game NLHE is a distant third, with an average of just $6,402 a session. Even though MTT with rebuys NLHEs have a higher burn rate and higher variance, the profit potential is just too good to pass up.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    64      62   15    25        0


delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $5,057,000
2017 balance: $5,996,825
balance: $17,414,655

Friday, June 9, 2017

The maximum bullets calculus

Last night, in the first MTT-R I played, I fired 7 bullets - 1 buy in, 5 rebuys, and 1 add on. At $50,000 a bullet, that amounted to $350,000. The lowest rung of the money ladder paid $370,000, so I would still have made a profit had I made the money (which, alas, I did not). A good formula for the maximum number of bullets to fire is the largest number which still gives you a profit if you min cash. The problem with this calculus is, at the time you're rebuying, there's no way to know what the final payouts will be, so there's no way to know for sure if min cashing will still give you a profit. Considered in the sober light of day, 7 bullets seems like too many, for sure. The most I'd ever fired in an MTT-R before last night was 6, and I only did that once.

In the second MTT-R I played, I did way better, with 3 fewer bullets; I made it under the lights, and finished in fourth. On the strength of that great finish, my overall balance got back into the blue. These are the good old days, still :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      72   15    33        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   111      68   15     4  1569000


delta: $1,019,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $5,207,000
2017 balance: $6,146,825
balance: $17,564,655

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Fourth worst two bagger

Last night's session was almost a carbon copy of the one preceding it. Again, I played well, but again I lost $400,000. The $800,000 lost in the last two sessions makes them the fourth worst two bagger of my career. However, I'm still not batting an eyelash. I do admit, however, that if the next two sessions mirror the last two, I'll finally blink :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      80   18    26        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    46      73   15    29        0


delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,188,000
2017 balance: $5,127,825
balance: $16,545,655

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

What a difference seven years makes

It took me 177 sessions, and just over a year, to make my first $400,000; I accomplished that on March 26th, 2010. Now I routinely play nearly 300 sessions a year, and just last night lost $400,000 in a single session. What a difference seven years makes :-) Back then, I would have been horrified to lose $400,000 in a month, let alone a single session. Now I don't bat an eyelash.

Last night, I had another first - my first bubble in an MTT rebuy tournament. Bubbles hurt, but they also mean you're playing well. They're often harbingers of good things to come. Here's hoping!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    91      67   15    16        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    66      47   12    20        0


delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,588,000
2017 balance: $5,527,825
balance: $16,945,655

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

The two pair that wasn't there

Last night, my session ended early due to a hallucination on my part. On my final hand, somehow I "saw" that I'd flopped a stealth two pair, when in fact all I'd flopped was middle pair. You can't blame me for going all in with my two pair that wasn't there :-) Luckily enough, I'd already made the money, but the mistake stung all the same. The money jumps are huge in rebuy tournaments, and I wanted to have at least one or two more of them. Live and learn!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    77      72   15    11   380000


delta: $130,000
MTT NLHE balance: $2,601,668
2017 balance: $5,927,825
balance: $17,345,655

Monday, June 5, 2017

Average bullets

The wonderful thing about rebuy tournaments is that you're guaranteed to outlast the late registration period, provided you're willing to fire more bullets whenever you hit the felt :-) The minimum number of bullets you can fire in a rebuy tournament is one, but the practical minimum is actually three - one buy in, one rebuy, and one add on. That's the minimum number of bullets which gives you a fighting chance to make the money. I calculated the average number of bullets I fire in rebuys; it's currently 3.24. I also calculated the field average, and as you might expect, it's considerably higher - 5.72. I've seen players go well above 10 bullets fired, which is really insane, and not a profitable play.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    79      76   18    14   412000


delta: $162,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,858,000
2017 balance: $5,797,825
balance: $17,215,655

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Double rebuys

In rebuy tournaments, you should always rebuy for the maximum chips that you can. In practice, this means you should always do a double rebuy. I'm good about hitting the double rebuy button when I hit the felt, but not as good about doing a rebuy at the very start of a tournament. You can only join a rebuy tournament with a single buy in, but as soon as you do, a rebuy button will appear; you should always click it, and double the amount of chips you have to work with (even before you've started to work :-)). I forgot to do this in the first tournament I played last night; who's to say what it may have cost me? I won't forget tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      55   12    22        0
SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    23      45    7    27        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      52   12    23        0


delta: $-270,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,696,000
2017 balance: $5,635,825
balance: $17,053,655

Saturday, June 3, 2017

Giving to get

The first game I ever loved was chess. I still love it. One of the hardest lessons to learn in chess, and one which I still haven't fully learned, is that many times, you must give in order to get. Indeed, "give to get" is a common chess puzzle hint. Over the last nine years, I've learned that in poker, too, you must give to get. In a poker context, giving to get means that you must have a willingness to take temporary losses when your goal is to achieve long-term gains. This willingness must be unconditional. You must be fully prepared to take these losses, and you must not regret them when they happen. This is a tall order, but achievable.

Last night, I gave to get. Though I had a losing session, I played the away I wanted to play, staying true to my poker principles. There's really nothing more that you can ask yourself to do at a poker table. And nothing less :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

SNG   NLHE    17000  3000       9    21      18    4    13        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    67      80   18    40        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   108      76   18    16   370000


delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,946,000
2017 balance: $5,905,825
balance: $17,323,655

Friday, June 2, 2017

Futile century, and saved by snowmen

I played two MTT-Rs last night, and each featured an extreme rarity. In the first one, I played 101 hands and failed to make the money, achieving the mythical futile century at last. In the second, I "fell in" on hand 47, but was rescued from hitting the rail by being dealt pocket eights which held up, meaning that I was saved by snowmen :-) It was another blue session to boot. All is right in my poker world.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   101      70   15    17        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   117      59   12     6   940000


delta: $640,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $5,126,000
2017 balance: $6,105,825
balance: $17,523,655

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Third blue session in a row

Last night, I achieved something I hadn't achieved since February 10th of last year - namely, I had my third blue session in a row. That is, for the third consecutive session, I raised my overall balance to a new all-time high. I'm definitely in a "these are the good old days" period again :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      80   18    12   393000


delta: $243,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $4,486,000
2017 balance: $5,465,825
balance: $16,883,655