A kicker to the head

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the one which put my stack on life support in the first tournament I played. I'd been dealt AQo (ace queen offsuit), and the flop came 2c As Kd. I bet it big, and an opponent I had covered went all in. I called, and immediately saw the bad news - my opponent's holding was AKo (ace king offsuit). I was a 1.92% dog. When the nine of spades came on the turn, I was officially drawing dead. I lost 5,000 chips on the hand, and had just 1,810 behind.

This bad luck made me curious about how many times in my MTT-R NLHE career I've had AQo or AQs and lost to an opponent who had AKo or AKs. I just ran the numbers; the answer is 21. This last one hurt the most.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      97   27    65        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    75      71   15    25        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,371,000
2019 balance: $6,367,250
balance: $52,951,510

The MTT-R NLHE Mendoza line

The Mendoza Line is an expression in baseball in the United States, deriving from the name of shortstop Mario Mendoza, whose poor batting average is taken to define the threshold of incompetent hitting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mendoza_Line

Applying this in a poker context, the MTT-R NLHE Mendoza line defines the threshold of incompetent tournament play. Specifically, it's when the number of bullets fired in a tournament exceeds the number of hands won. I achieved this in the first tournament I played last night, in which I fired four bullets but only won a single hand :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      94   27    61        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    83      59   12    28        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,671,000
2019 balance: $6,667,250
balance: $53,251,510

Not very slick

Last night, I fired four bullets. That was two too many, for the following reason - I never should have gone all in on hand 19. Two players had gone all in preflop before me, and a third had called them; if I called, my hand would be up against three other hands. Those are horrible odds. There's no way I should have called, but I did. I had a suited big slick, and though I had the best chance of anyone to win the hand, it was only a 32.68% chance. Predictably, I lost the hand. I promise to be more selective tonight.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    52      67   15    30        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,971,000
2019 balance: $6,967,250
balance: $53,551,510

Fall out

On Monday night, I had a fall out. That's my latest neo neo, describing the situation where you fall in on the final hand of a tournament. I got curious to know how often I fall out of tournaments where I fail to make the money, so I wrote a utility to figure that out. The answer? 10.42% of the time. The closer you get to the bubble, the more likely you are to fall out. The simple reason for this is that the closer you get to the bubble, the more attractive it gets to try laddering up into the money. That's why I fell out on Monday night.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      56   12    17        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,171,000
2019 balance: $7,167,250
balance: $53,751,510

Top three

Last night I achieved (if that's the right word for it) a top three in a losing cause. I saw only two flops in 37 hands, for a seeing-the-flop percentage of 5.4, the third smallest of my MTT-R NLHE career. My getting-to-showdown percentage was even smaller - just 2.7. I missed the money by a country mile. On the plus side: yet again, I only fired two bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    37      75   15    55        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,271,000
2019 balance: $7,267,250
balance: $53,851,510

Four freefalls

The bar chart of my stack size over the course of the one tournament I played last night is one of the strangest I've ever seen. In 74 hands, I only had three positive hand deltas; however, each was a significant jump. That means my stack underwent four consecutive freefalls, separated by the jumps. I missed the money by six spots, achieving a percentile slightly north of 71. I'm happy with that, and also with the fact that I only fired two bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    74      74   15    21        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,371,000
2019 balance: $7,367,250
balance: $53,951,510

Pulling the ripcord

The longer I play poker, the more I see the power in minimizing your losses. Over the long haul, poker rewards players who are willing to pull the ripcord when the situation warrants it. There are multiple levels where you can pull the ripcord. The most granular level is the hand. One level coarser than that is the tournament. One level courser than that is the session. The coarsest level of all is the career :-) May I never pull the ripcord on my poker career. On Thursday night, I pulled the ripcord on the first tournament I entered, just after I lost my third and fourth bullets. I'd failed to win a single hand, and didn't want to throw good money after bad.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    28      52   12     -        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      48   12    23        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,471,000
2019 balance: $7,467,250
balance: $54,051,510

Owned

Sometimes at a poker table, you own another player; other times, another player owns you. Unfortunately for me, it was the latter case in the second tournament I played last night. I hit the felt on hand 29 when an opponent hit an 8 outer on the river. This was shortly before the late registration period ended, and of course I did a double rebuy (ignoring my own good advice from last night's post). Just five hands later, the same player sent me to the rail. Can I just say, "Ouch"? :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    50      61   15    29        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    34      62   15    44        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,771,000
2019 balance: $7,767,250
balance: $54,351,510

How to fatten up your cashes

Poker players are always trying to make a sustainable profit. I'm discovering that the best way to achieve this playing MTT-R NLHEs is to fire as few bullets as possible. I'm coming more and more to the conclusion that the most bullets you should ever fire in a single MTT-R NLHE is two. If you can hold yourself to that, you'll fatten up all your cashes, including your min cashes. On the back of a mental envelope, I just came up with a sure fire way to make a profit of at least $1,500,000 a year. Here's all you need to do:

1. play at least 300 $50,000 buy in MTT-R NLHEs during the year
2. fire at most 2 bullets per MTT-R NLHE
3. maintain a making-the-money percentage of at least 30% (which I have always done for MTT-R NLHEs)

Even making the simplifying assumptions that all your cashes are min cashes (which is far from the truth), and that min cashes are worth an average of $350,000 for the $50,000 buy in MTT-R NLHEs (which is very close to the truth), the math pans out:

amount wagered on the year = 300 * $50,000 * 2 bullets = $30,000,000
amount won on the year = 90 * $350,000 = $31,500,000

profit = amount won on the year - amount wagered on the year = $1,500,000

Of course, since I often ladder up, $1,500,000 is the absolute minimum I should make per year :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    99      59   12    10   373000

delta: $273,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,071,000
2019 balance: $8,067,250
balance: $54,651,510

fftpbb

It's time for another neo neo (neostreet neologism). An fftpbb is a freefall from the peak which ends in a bubble bubble. Freefalls from the peak are never fun, even if you make the money; freefalls from the peak where you miss the money by just two spots are plain tough to take. That's what I took on the chin last night. I'll recover :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    59      60   12    14        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,798,000
2019 balance: $7,794,250
balance: $54,378,510

Double big goodbye

Last night, I exited both of the tournaments I played with a big goodbye. The last hand of the second tournament had a humorous side. Three of us went to showdown, but two of us had essentially the same  hand - QJo (queen jack offsuit). I was one of those two. The third player had been dealt rockets. The flop came Jd 3s 6s, I shoved, the rockets shoved, and the other QJo called. The board bricked out for me and the other QJo. What's so funny about that? The fact that the other QJo and I were stealing each other's outs :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    18      73   15    49        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      59   12    45        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,898,000
2019 balance: $7,894,250
balance: $54,478,510

The first foot of runway

I've used this title before, but if the shoe fits ... Last night, in the second tournament I played, I landed on the first foot of runway, making the money with no room to spare. It was the 25th time I've done that in my MTT-R NLHE career. It makes for a thrilling, nerve-wracking ride :-) After the money bubble burst, I was the short stack at my table, with just half a percent of the chips in play there. Not surprisingly, I didn't last long - just four hands. However, the min cash enabled me to make a tiny profit on the night. I'll take it!

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    33      98   27     0        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    89      78   18    18   335000

delta: $35,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,098,000
2019 balance: $8,094,250
balance: $54,678,510

Four outed

The most memorable hand of last night's session was the final one I played, when I got four outed. That is, I lost to an opponent who hit a four outer on the river. Only a ten would win him the hand, and he hit one of the four in the deck. I'm not gonna lie, that hurt. But that's poker :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    75      79   18    25        0

delta: $-150,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,063,000
2019 balance: $8,059,250
balance: $54,643,510

Legends of the fall

It's always fun to steal a song or movie title for a blog post title :-) "Legends of the Fall" came out in 1994, a quarter of a century ago. What I mean by legends of the fall are tournaments where I had an extended freefall from the peak to hit the rail. That's what happened to me last night. My stack reached its peak at the end of hand 49, and I never won another hand. That 33 hand freefall tied for the fifth longest of my MTT-R NLHE career. To add insult to injury, I missed the money by two spots. The good news? I only fired two bullets.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    82      70   15    17        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,213,000
2019 balance: $8,209,250
balance: $54,793,510

Evermore and ever better, all in vain

The most play money I've ever lost in a session immediately following a session where my balance hit a new all-time high is $700,000. Last night, I came close to that number, losing half a million. I played three tournaments, and lasted longer and increased my percentile in each succeeding one. However, it was all for naught, since I failed to make the money in any of them. Interestingly, in both the second and the third tournaments, I fell in twice, which means I survived the first fall in both times. Pretty lucky :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    20      98   27    66        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    37      73   15    37        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    76      70   15    20        0

delta: $-500,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,313,000
2019 balance: $8,309,250
balance: $54,893,510

Top 20 five bagger

When you've played poker for as many years as I have, it's a big deal to hit the top 20 in any category, since that automatically puts you in the 99th percentile. With last night's winning session, I made the top 20 in the category of aggregate profit over five contiguous sessions. I narrowly missed averaging a million per session, clocking in with $4,832,500. These are the good old days :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    34      71   15    44        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    91      70   15     6   833000

delta: $533,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,813,000
2019 balance: $8,809,250
balance: $55,393,510

Ladder boy blue

Last night, I laddered my way up into the blue. In the third tournament, I started the final table as the short stack, and ended up finishing third. Those six extra spots gave me an additional $1,628,000 in profit. Ka-ching! That brought my overall balance back into the blue, where it had not been since May 6th of last year. All is right again in my poker world.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    21     101   27    54        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      73   15    26        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   139      65   15     3  2064000

delta: $1,664,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $42,280,000
2019 balance: $8,276,250
balance: $54,860,510

Bulletfest

Last night, for the first time in over five months, I fired at least eight bullets in a single MTT-R NLHE. Here are my holdings the four times I hit the felt:

9d 9s
Kd Kh
Kc Td
Td Tc

On the final hand, I called all in. I was up against a player who'd been dealt Kc Ad, and was a 56.24% favorite to win. Alas, it wasn't meant to be. I finished a mile away from the money. Nevertheless, I have a feeling I'll be getting back into the blue before long :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    55      72   15    31        0

delta: $-400,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $40,616,000
2019 balance: $6,612,250
balance: $53,196,510

A rash of rockets

Last night, I received pocket rockets at more than 5 times their expected frequency. In all three tournaments I played, my highest absolute value delta came from a hand where I received pocket rockets and won with them. Unfortunately, I failed to make the money in any of the tournaments, but came close and can't complain about a thing.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    54      89   18    24        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    45      87   18    29        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    57      70   15    25        0

delta: $-300,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,016,000
2019 balance: $7,012,250
balance: $53,596,510

A trick of the hands

The guns were empty and they boiled at him, transmogrified into an Eye and a Hand, and he stood, screaming and reloading, his mind far away and absent, letting his hands do their reloading trick. Could he hold up a hand, tell them he had spent a thousand years learning this trick and others, tell them of the guns and the blood that had blessed them? Not with his mouth. But his hands could speak their own tale.

Stephen King, "The Gunslinger"

Like King's gunslinger, my hands have their own trick that they do quite well, when my mind steps aside to let them do their thing. That trick? To click the correct buttons on the PokerStars interface to enable me to come out on top :-)  Technically speaking, I'm only using one hand. Full disclosure: I've quoted this exact passage twice before, in my posts of March 5, 2014 and March 18, 2015.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    68      84   18    19        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    27      82   18    44        0
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9   140      51   12     1  4035500

delta: $3,335,500
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $41,316,000
2019 balance: $7,312,250
balance: $53,896,510

The hateful eight

This is the second time I've used this blog post title. The current hateful eight are my last eight sessions. All of them are losing ones; my aggregate loss is one million play dollars on the nose. I only managed to win a single hand last night, firing four bullets in the process. Near perfect futility :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    63      79   18    40        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $37,980,500
2019 balance: $3,976,750
balance: $50,561,010

Yet another personal borscht

Last night, I achieved yet another personal borscht. I had the lowest percentile ever for an MTT-R NLHE where I lasted at least 50 hands. I only hit the 25th percentile; pretty pitiful :-) The good news, such as there is, is that for the last six sessions, I've only fired two bullets per session. That's keeping the losses at a manageable level.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    55      58   12    43        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,180,500
2019 balance: $4,176,750
balance: $50,761,010

My kingdom for an orbit

This is the third time I've used this blog post title. I can't improve on what I said the first time:

Sometimes, you know you're going to make the money in an MTT. Other times, you know you're going to just miss making the money. The closer you get, the more it hurts not to make it. It really hurts to know that it you could just drag your sorry poker carcass around for one more orbit of the table, you'd make it, but there's no way in hell to do it, since you don't have enough money for the blinds. That's what happened to me in the second MTT I entered last night. My kingdom for an orbit :-)

The good news is that I'm playing well, despite my six session losing streak.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    58      56   12    14        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,280,500
2019 balance: $4,276,750
balance: $50,861,010

A phantom rung

The number of paid places in MTT-R NLHEs on PokerStars is based on one thing, and one thing only - the number of entries. That's just as it should be. No matter how many times a player rebuys, for payout calculation purposes he or she counts as a single entry. This is why the payouts in MTT-R NLHEs can grow to be so huge, which in turn is a huge part of their appeal :-)

PokerStars limits the paid places in MTTR-R NLHEs to somewhere in the range of 20 to 24 percent of the number of entries. Here's a breakout of the counts of the number of paid places in the tournaments I've played to date:

paid  count

   5      1
   6      1
   7      4
   8      5
   9     17
  12    216
  15    350
  18    150
  27     35

Whenever at least 12 players are paid, places 10-12 all receive the same payout. Similarly, whenever at least 15 payers are paid, places 13-15 all receive the same payout. And so on. Last night, I came in 18th, but the tournament only paid 15 places. So I landed on a phantom rung of the payout ladder :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    81      68   15    18        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,380,500
2019 balance: $4,376,750
balance: $50,961,010

Twin slicks

On Saturday night, I experienced yet another personal first. For the first time ever in an MTT-R NLHE, I got dealt two big slicks in a row and lost both. It was actually the sixth time I'd ever been dealt two slicks in a row, but the first five times I managed to win at least one of the slicks. Losing both put my stack on life support, and I hit the rail the very next hand. Sometimes it doesn't pay to get dealt premium hands :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    47      62   15    30        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,480,500
2019 balance: $4,476,750
balance: $51,061,010

My whaleback percentage

Last night, I had another whaleback. I used to think whalebacks were rare, but they're actually quite common. My whaleback percentage for MTT-R NLHE is just under 35. It's funny how many MTT-R NLHE poker percentages situate themselves in the 30s; here are the ones I currently have there:

in the money:           31.11
freefall from the peak: 31.79
whaleback:              34.83

Just for fun, sometime I'll calculate what my percentage is for tournaments where I hit all three criteria; my guess is that it will be about 7.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    77      70   15    27        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,580,500
2019 balance: $4,576,750
balance: $51,161,010

yafftp

This is the third time I've used this blog post title. Here's what I had to say the last time:

On Monday night, I suffered yafftp - yet another freefall from the peak. The rate this happens remains remarkably consistent over time, hovering around 32%. As I've mentioned before, this statistic has no correlation with making or missing the money, so it's actually a pretty silly one to look at. It's one of the standbys I use when I can't figure out what else to write about a session :-)

Everything applies equally well to last night's session except for the day of the week :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    53      76   18    26        0

delta: $-100,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $38,680,500
2019 balance: $4,676,750
balance: $51,261,010