Monday, February 29, 2016

A worst first

As you know, I love setting personal records, even when they're of the dubious variety. On Friday night, I set a worst first - a personal record for the most last places in a row in a single session. I wasn't playing especially friskily, I was just being hit hard and often by the bad luck stick. I felt like the poker gods were paraphrasing a classic Seinfeld bit, and telling me, "No pots for you!" :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    19     6        0
 45000  5000       6    21     6        0
 45000  5000       6     9     6        0
 45000  5000       6     8     5        0
 45000  5000       6    14     3        0
 45000  5000       6    50     1   175500


delta: $-124,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,464,300
balance: $12,511,104

Friday, February 26, 2016

Nil below third

I like Anglicisms. I've never seen the movie "Nil by mouth", but love the title. I've used it as a snowclone for the title of this post. "Nil below third" is what you've achieved when all of your sit and go finishes in a session are third places or higher. The more sit and gos you played in the session, the more impressive a feat this is. In 155 sessions of four or more sit and gos, I've had 14 nil below third sessions, including last night's.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    31     3        0
 45000  5000       6    88     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    47     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    57     3        0


delta: $-11,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,588,800
balance: $12,635,604

Thursday, February 25, 2016

The last place bounce

It's never fun to come in last, but it does have an upside - it lights a fire under you to do better the next time. Quite often, you get a bounce out of hitting bottom. I just ran the numbers to see how I do in the next tournament after coming in last; here are the results:

place  count
2         19
4         18
1         13
3         13
5         10
6          3


Note that here I only looked at the next tournament's results in the case where that tournament was played in the same session as the earlier one. It's gratifying to discover that my most common last place bounce is to make the money :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    49     3        0
 45000  5000       6    26     4        0
 45000  5000       6    38     4        0
 45000  5000       6     3     6        0
 45000  5000       6    65     2    94500


delta: $-155,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,599,800
balance: $12,646,604

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

The perfect spot for bullying

Even though I've never been a bully in real life, there are times when it really pays to be a bully at the poker table. In sit and gos, I've found the perfect spot for bullying. It's when you've made it to three handed play, have a substantially larger chip stack than both of your opponents, and their stacks are roughly comparable in size. You can put a lot of pressure on both of them at the same time by betting aggressively almost every hand; unless one of them has a really premium holding, you'll force both of them to fold. Since your stack is bigger, you can afford to bet more marginal holdings than they can. It's actually almost as important that their stack sizes are about the same as it is that yours is outsized; the reason is that they're essentially playing for second place money, and can't bully one another in this scenario.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    65     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    18     5        0
 45000  5000       6    69     2    94500


delta: $120,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,755,300
balance: $12,802,104

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Rocket man

When you get dealt a particular hand at a much higher frequency than the norm, it's a little freaky (or perhaps I should say freq-y :-)) When that hand happens to be the best hold'em holding of them all, it's even freq-ier. Last night, in 204 sit and go no limit hold'em hands, I got dealt rockets 5, count 'em 5, times. That's more than 5 times as frequently as I should have been dealt them. I was rocket man last night, but kind of wish I hadn't been. I essentially broke even on those hands. I lost 2 of the 5, for a total of 1,549 chips lost; my 3 winning hands netted me a total of only 1,630 chips won. I had just two bright spots on the night:

1. I didn't come in third once
2. I came in second in the final sit and go I played

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    26      77   18    61        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    29       6    2     6        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    24       6    2     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    13       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    35       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    19       6    2     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    84       6    2     2    94500


delta: $-210,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,635,300
balance: $12,682,104

Monday, February 22, 2016

Second places on the rise

For the first time in I don't know how long, my second place finishes are now tied with my third place ones. I didn't think that could ever happen again. Here are my current sit and go place counts:

place  count

1        213
2        244
3        244
4        201
5        159
6         87


total   1148


This parity was actually achieved in the session before last night's - I just didn't realize it at the time.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    69     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    38     3        0


delta: $-5,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,840,800
balance: $12,892,604

Sunday, February 21, 2016

All four money

Sometimes, even when you're in the sweetness, you have to quit. That's what happened to me last night. Since I started playing late, it was too late to keep playing after I'd made my fourth straight money finish. It was the first four bullet session where I achieved this. One for all, and all four money :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    77     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    58     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    26     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    75     2    94500


delta: $340,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,846,300
balance: $12,898,104

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Mileage check

It's time to do a mileage check. On January 21st, I publicized my goal of wagering 60 million play dollars playing sit and go no limit hold'em in 2016. That boils down to 5 million play dollars a month. Here's how many play dollars I've wagered by month so far:

wagered  profit tournaments    month

5750000 1607500         115  2016-01
3450000  154500          69  2016-02


Since I'm currently playing exclusively at the $45,000 buy in level, which comes with a $5,000 entry fee, I'm wagering $50,000 per sit and go. 100 of those a month lets me hit my 5 million play dollar target on the nose. The bottom line is, I'm right on target :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    13     5        0
 45000  5000       6    19     5        0
 45000  5000       6    69     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    24     4        0
 45000  5000       6    28     5        0
 45000  5000       6    56     2    94500


delta: $-30,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,506,300
balance: $12,558,104

Friday, February 19, 2016

The three bullet 30 club

I had a shortish session on Wednesday night - just three bullets long. It's not as impressive as it would have been with more bullets fired, but I managed to make the three bullet 30 club. Let me check the archives to see if that's anything to be proud of... As it turns out, not really. Oh well, not all sessions can be standouts.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    67     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    31     5        0
 45000  5000       6    76     2    94500


delta: $39,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,536,300
balance: $12,588,104

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Seeing eye straight

Memory can play funny tricks on you. My most memorable hand of last night's session was one I lost. I thought I could recall most of the details, but when I checked the hand history, I discovered I was wrong about almost all of them. I'd decided to call the hand the seeing eye straight, since I was beaten by an opponent who hit a straight on the river, when I'd been way ahead on the turn. Here are all the details I got wrong:

1. I thought I'd hit the felt on the hand; actually, although I lost 625 in chips on the hand, I ended up winning that tournament
2. I thought I'd had two pair, tens and nines; actually, I'd only had a pair of nines
3. I thought my opponent had hit a gutshot straight draw; actually, he'd only hit an open-ended straight draw

The upshot is that the title of this post is a misnomer. Only a gutshot straight draw deserves to be called a seeing eye straight :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    89     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    22     6        0
 45000  5000       6    10     5        0
 45000  5000       6    11     4        0
 45000  5000       6    50     3        0
 45000  5000       6    56     3        0


delta: $-124,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,497,300
balance: $12,549,104

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

The six bullet 30 club

Any time you fire six bullets in a session, you have to expect some variance. The more bullets you fire, the harder it is to remain consistent. When I looked over my results from last night's six bullet session, one thing stood out straight away - I lasted at least 30 hands in every tournament. That's a fine achievement. In 56 six bullet sessions, I've only managed this six times.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    48     3        0
 45000  5000       6   100     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    54     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    31     4        0
 45000  5000       6    36     5        0
 45000  5000       6    58     2    94500


delta: $64,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,621,800
balance: $12,673,604

Monday, February 15, 2016

Min four bullet loss

Every sit and go session profile has a min win and a min loss. What they are depends on the buy in level and the number of bullets. Last night, I played four sit and gos. At the $45,000 buy in level, the min four bullet win is $70,000 and the min four bullet loss is $-11,000. I would have preferred the former, but had to settle for the latter. The good news is that I only came in third once :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    72     3        0
 45000  5000       6    84     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    37     4        0
 45000  5000       6    63     2    94500


delta: $-11,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,561,610
balance: $12,609,104

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Bubble boy

Lately, I've been coming in third a lot. Truth be told, I come in third more often than any other place. That's both disappointing and encouraging, in virtually equal measure. You can't get to the money without getting to three-handed play first. However, you also can't get to the money without prevailing over at least one opponent once you get to three-handed play. On Friday night, I came in third twice in three sit and gos. In the last six sit and gos I've played, I've come in third four times. That's why I'm calling myself the bubble boy at the moment :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6   126     106   24     9    14310
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    59       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    38       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    90       6    2     3        0


delta: $-140,690
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,572,610
balance: $12,620,104

Friday, February 12, 2016

Crybaby

There are certain universal truths:

1. no one wants to see your vacation pictures
2. no one wants to read your blog
3. no one wants to listen to your bad beat sob stories

In general, I've been very good about not running counter to these truths. Although I'd like people to read my blog, I don't beg them to, and I write it for myself anyway. I very rarely tell bad beat sob stories. I think people who do are just crybabies. I'm going to step out of character briefly, and inhabit the role of crybaby. Here's my tale of woe from the fourth sit and go of last night's session:

- on hand 56, I was dealt 7h 6h, and a player who'd been dealt pocket fours went all in preflop. I called. Before the flop, I  had a 49.51% chance to win the pot, and a 1.84% chance to chop it. The flop came 6c Jh 8d. At this point, I was a 90.81% favorite. The turn card was 3s. Now I was a 95.45% favorite. The river card, 4d, was a dagger through my heart; my pair of sixes lost to three of a kind, fours. I lost 350 in chips, which dropped my stack down to 905 in chips.

- on hand 61, I was dealt Ah Ks, and the flop came Tc Ac Qd. A player who'd been dealt pocket eights want all in after the flop, and I called. At this point, I was a 90.81% favorite, and had a 1.21% chance of chopping the pot. The turn card was Ts.  Now I was a 95.45% favorite. The river card, 8s, was another dagger through my heart; my two pair of aces and tens lost to a full house of eights full of tens. I lost 1,085 in chips, bringing my stack all the way down to 120 in chips.

One bad beat when you're a 95.45% favorite on the turn is bad enough, but two in one tournament? That's unconscionable :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    80     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    32     3        0
 45000  5000       6    13     6        0
 45000  5000       6    77     3        0
 45000  5000       6    22     4        0
 45000  5000       6    66     3        0


delta: $-205,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,713,300
balance: $12,760,794

Thursday, February 11, 2016

50% barrier cracked

Last night, I cracked the 50% barrier in blue percentage for the year - 19 blue of 37 total sessions, for 51.35%. For some perspective, my career blue percentage is 269 of 1,790, for 15.03%. Obviously, my current success rate isn't sustainable, but I'm going to do my damnedest to sustain it :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    40     4        0
 45000  5000       6    31     4        0
 45000  5000       6    67     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    52     4        0
 45000  5000       6   107     1   175500


delta: $101,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,918,800
balance: $12,966,294

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Twin coolers

My current definition of twin hands is when you're dealt the exact same cards in the exact same order two hands in a row. When this occurs, it never fails to give me a little jolt of surprise. On average, it should happen once every 2,652 hands. Last night, in the final sit and go I entered, I not only had twin hands, but twin coolers. On hand 1, I was dealt Kd Ks, went all in after a flop of Td 7c 4c, and lost to an opponent who'd been dealt pocket rockets. With just 20 chips remaining, I was crippled. On hand 2, I again was dealt Kd Ks, went all in before the flop, and again lost to an opponent who'd been dealt pocket rockets. I wouldn't ever dare continue a session after being treated by Lady Luck in such a cruel fashion :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6   136     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    72     1   175500
 45000  5000       6     3     6        0


delta: $201,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,817,800
balance: $12,865,294

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Min five bullet win

Poker commentators often refer to buy ins as bullets. This is in the context of tournaments which have rebuys; "He's on his second bullet" refers to someone who hit the felt on his first buy in, and bought in again. The sit and gos I play on PokerStars don't have rebuys, but I like the bullet metaphor so much I'll appropriate it anyway. I tend to fire anywhere from three to six bullets a night. Last night, I fired five, and came out with the min win for five $45,000 bullets, or $20,000. One good sit and go rule of thumb is to quit whenever your profit hits the min win for the number of bullets you've fired. I don't always follow it, but wish I did :-)

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    74     2    94500
 45000  5000       6    64     3        0
 45000  5000       6    70     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    15     4        0
 45000  5000       6     6     6        0


delta: $20,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,616,800
balance: $12,664,294

Monday, February 8, 2016

Also-ran analysis

Lately, though I've been continuing to get my share of money finishes, I've noticed that the average of my out of the money finishes has been on the decline. When you don't make the money, it really shouldn't matter what place you come in, but to me it kind of does. The more riskily you play, the higher your percentages of 4th, 5th, and 6th place finishes will be. The way to make money in sit and gos, long term, is not to play too riskily. So it's a little disconcerting to me to see the average of my also-ran finishes getting bigger. In the glory days of last November, my also-ran average ran about 3.7. Currently, it's running about 4.4. I need to dial back a bit on my risk-taking.

buy_in entry players hands place winnings

 45000  5000       6    26     4        0
 45000  5000       6    80     1   175500
 45000  5000       6    43     5        0


delta: $25,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,596,800
balance: $12,644,294

Saturday, February 6, 2016

All y'all chips are belong to me

I've said this more than once before, and I'll surely say it more than once again - one of the reasons that poker is the greatest game ever invented is that no matter how long you've played it, you can still experience personal firsts. Last night, I experienced such a one. For the first time ever, I won a sit and go by taking out two opponents on the final hand. All y'all chips are belong to me :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    37    1258  315   511        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    56       6    2     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    52       6    2     1   175500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    35       6    2     5        0


delta: $119,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,571,300
balance: $12,618,794

Friday, February 5, 2016

Exiting with my boots on

Recently, I was reading about Doc Holliday on Wikipedia. Here's a passage which struck me:

Holliday is reported to have asked the nurse attending him at the Hotel Glenwood for a shot of whiskey. When she told him no, he looked at his bootless feet, amused. The nurses said that his last words were, "This is funny." He always figured he would be killed someday with his boots on.

Last night, I exited the MTT 8-game tournament I entered with my boots on. On the money bubble, I decided not to try to fold my way into the money, but to go out (if I were to go out) with both guns blazing. The flavor was 7 card stud limit, and I called all in on sixth street with two pair, tens and fours. The opponent who'd put me all in hit a two pair of aces and nines with a nine on the river, and I was gone from the tournament. Luckily for me, someone at another table hit the rail before I did, so I made the (pitiful) money.

Tonight, I'm going to look for a massive field MTT NLHE of the 6-max variety. If I can only find 9-maxes in the PokerStars lobby, I'll scratch that idea.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    60      94   18    18     5490
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    89       6    2     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    33       6    2     4        0


delta: $-5,010
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,451,300
balance: $12,499,794

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Stellar blue percentage

Last night, with another meat and two veg session, I got my overall balance back into the blue. My 2016 blue percentage is a stellar 45.16 (14 of 31 sessions). Already, I have nearly triple the number of blue sessions that I had last year. My highest blue percentage of a completed poker year is 31.23 (79 of 253, in 2011). In addition to my goal of wagering 60 million play dollars at sit and go no limit hold'em this year, and making my largest yearly profit, I'll try to better 2011's blue percentage. Anything north of 33.33 would be awesome :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    62     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    36     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    96     1   175500


delta: $214,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,456,800
balance: $12,504,804

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Pocket queens X 2

Last night, I had pocket queens twice. The first time I got them, I got crippled in the massive field MTT NLHE I'd entered to start the session. It was the most massive field I've been in so far - 1,464 players. I was up against two opponents, and was a 68.44% favorite after the flop, but one of my opponents hit a set of eights on the turn and they held up. I won a minuscule side pot of 26 chips from the other opponent; that allowed me to play one more hand before hitting the felt.

The second time I got pocket queens, I was playing a sit and go NLHE. This time, they held up, and I went on to win that tournament. From famine to feast :-) One thing I'll try to avoid the next time I join a massive field MTT is the 9-max variety; I just didn't happen to notice it this time. 9-max has much more variance than 6-max.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE      900   100       9    14    1464  387   933        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    37       6    2     1   175500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    40       6    2     4        0
MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    23     100   24    69        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    21       6    2     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    63       6    2     2    94500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    15       6    2     5        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    23       6    2     6        0


delta: $-36,000
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,242,300
balance: $12,290,304

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Keeping my MTT hand in

I really enjoy playing MTTs. However, they're certainly not a profit machine. Even though I've decided to devote the bulk of my 2016 poker year to sit and gos, I want to keep my MTT hand in. Accordingly, last night I started the session by playing an MTT 8-game. I made the (pitiful) money. Tonight, I'll start out by playing a massive field MTT NLHE. It's a great feeling to outlast hundreds of players, and that's just what I intend to do :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   8-Game   4500   500       6    81      88   18    11     8510
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6     5       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    13       6    2     6        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    21       6    2     3        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    19       6    2     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    60       6    2     1   175500


delta: $-70,990
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,272,300
balance: $12,326,304

Monday, February 1, 2016

Best 100 session stretch

It's always a good thing when your most recent session is part of a stretch of sessions in which you've achieved a personal best. That was the case last night. With the modest profit I made, I set a personal best for profit made in a 100 session stretch - over 5 million play dollars. Here are my top 10 100 session stretches (the numbers in parentheses are winning sessions):

$5,225,630 2015-10-16 2016-01-31 (65)
$5,200,130 2015-10-15 2016-01-29 (64)
$5,167,630 2015-10-11 2016-01-25 (64)
$5,104,130 2015-10-13 2016-01-27 (64)
$4,928,630 2015-10-12 2016-01-26 (63)
$4,919,630 2015-10-14 2016-01-28 (63)
$4,639,546 2015-09-30 2016-01-14 (65)
$4,619,777 2015-10-08 2016-01-21 (63)
$4,519,660 2015-09-29 2016-01-13 (65)
$4,515,130 2015-10-10 2016-01-24 (63)


January 2016 is now over, and was my third best month ever, profit-wise. I made 1,696,930 play dollars. If I were somehow able to duplicate that performance every month, I'd make over 20 million play dollars this year. I certainly don't expect to do that. What I do expect to do, however, is have my best poker year ever :-)

style flavor buy_in entry players hands place winnings

SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    35     4        0
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    74     1   175500
SNG   NLHE    45000  5000       6    63     4        0


delta: $25,500
Sit and go no limit hold'em balance: $4,346,800
balance: $12,397,294