Friday, May 30, 2014

Another top ten

As I've said before, I love making top 10 lists. Last night, I made another one. My seventh consecutive winning session gave me my eighth best seven session stretch of cash game no limit hold'em sessions. Here are the top 10:

    472691 2014-02-04 2014-04-15 (5)
    435205 2014-02-03 2014-04-14 (5)
    373477 2012-06-24 2012-07-01 (6)
    371979 2012-06-23 2012-06-30 (6)
    371530 2014-02-01 2014-04-12 (4)
    371530 2014-01-31 2014-04-11 (4)
    357356 2012-06-26 2012-07-03 (6)
    347533 2014-05-19 2014-05-29 (7)
    343211 2014-02-05 2014-04-16 (5)
    340120 2011-12-09 2011-12-16 (7)


During current Hold'em session you were dealt 32 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 4 out of 6 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 11 out of 20 times in other positions (55%)
 - a total of 19 out of 32 (59%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 6 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $59,177
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,315,382
balance: $9,373,085

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Showdown perfection

This marks at least the third time I've used this title for a blog post. Showdown perfection is easy to define, but difficult to achieve. It's when you win every time you go to showdown. Last night I did just that. Running the numbers, I discovered that I've achieved this considerably more often than I thought I had. I figured it to be around 5% of the time, but I've actually done it 64 times in the 632 sessions for which I have the requisite data, which is a hair over 10%. Last night's winning session propelled my cash game no limit hold'em balance back into the blue.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
 - 2 out of 5 times while in small blind (40%)
 - 12 out of 16 times in other positions (75%)
 - a total of 18 out of 26 (69%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 5 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $74,309
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,256,205
balance: $9,313,908

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Zero crossings

A zero crossing is a hand where your net balance on the session moves from one side of zero to the other. A session in which your net balance never fell below zero has no zero crossings. If you lose the first hand of the session, the only way to have a winning session is to have an odd number of zero crossings. If you win the first hand of the session, the only way to have a winning session is to have an even number of zero crossings. Last Friday night, I had a very strange session. I was underwater for the first 68 hands, then had my first zero crossing on hand 69. In relatively short order, I had four more. The final one came on the penultimate hand of the night, when I won a pot worth $61,604 with a king high flush.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 86 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 11 times while in big blind (90%)
 - 5 out of 12 times while in small blind (41%)
 - 35 out of 63 times in other positions (55%)
 - a total of 50 out of 86 (58%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 13 (46%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $11,604
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,181,896
balance: $9,239,599

Friday, May 23, 2014

The third floor

I've used this title before, and I'm using it again because it's apt. What do I mean by the third floor? I'll get there in a minute :-) When you're playing poker properly, the bar chart of your stack size over the course of the session tends to subdivide neatly into sections. Each section starts with a string of small losses, and ends with a big upward leap. The leap takes your stack to a point considerably higher than where it was at the start of the section; I liken that to going up one floor in a building. Generally, as soon as you've gone up a floor, you start slowly sliding back again. You can't avoid the sliding back, but if you're patient enough, another leap will be coming. After much experience, I can highly recommend calling it quits after your third leap. The place where you've ended up can be called the third floor, if you use the European convention of counting floors :-) Last night, I got off at the third floor.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 38 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 6 times while in big blind (50%)
 - 2 out of 6 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 11 out of 26 times in other positions (42%)
 - a total of 16 out of 38 (42%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 4 (75%)
 Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $50,727
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,170,292
balance: $9,227,995


Thursday, May 22, 2014

Taking it to the house

When you're winning, poker's a very simple game. You bide your time, bide your time, bide your time, then pounce when the moment is right. One of the most satisfying ways to finish off a successful session is by taking it to the house. That is, by waiting until you hit a full house, then play it in such a way that you extract the most chips possible from your opponents. That's what I managed to do last night. I won my biggest pot of the session, $74,888, without a showdown, and went out on top.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 62 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 9 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 5 out of 8 times while in small blind (62%)
 - 24 out of 45 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 36 out of 62 (58%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 14 (35%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $65,387
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,119,565
balance: $9,177,268

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

A rash of straights

For some reason, a lot of my big won pots lately have been won with straights. It's an aberration. I'm not complaining, mind you. Here are the biggest won pots of my last 9 sessions, where each session is considered separately:

102,548  straight  2014-05-10
 14,389  two pair  2014-05-12
 16,178  straight  2014-05-13
 57,500  two pair  2014-05-14
 42,852  straight  2014-05-15
 10,309  flush     2014-05-16
 20,911  two pair  2014-05-17
 60,581  straight  2014-05-19
 21,365  straight  2014-05-20


I've won my last 6 straights in a row. I thought that was pretty good, until I ran the numbers. My longest streak of winning straights is a whopping 22.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 77 hands and saw flop:
 - 18 out of 18 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 13 out of 18 times while in small blind (72%)
 - 27 out of 41 times in other positions (65%)
 - a total of 58 out of 77 (75%)
 Pots won at showdown - 7 of 11 (63%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $25,725
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,054,178
balance: $9,111,881

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Even when I lose I'm winning

Once again, I've taken a line from a song I like and made it the title of a post. This one comes from the chorus of "All Of Me", by John Legend. These words accurately describe the predominant way I feel when I hit the felt. Not every time, mind you, but most times. It's a confidence thing. When you've lost as many starting stacks as I have, and have not only lived to tell the tale, but have actually made a steady profit year after year, this is generally how you feel the next time it happens. Sometimes, you don't even have to wait for another session to have your winning feeling validated. That's what happened to me last night. I hit the felt on hand 17, reupped for the max, vaulted back into the black on hand 54, and never looked back.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 101 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 13 times while in big blind (76%)
 - 6 out of 14 times while in small blind (42%)
 - 40 out of 74 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 56 out of 101 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 15 (60%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $60,604
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,028,453
balance: $9,086,156

Monday, May 19, 2014

A blizzard of snowmen

I've mentioned my worst hand, AJo (aka offsuit), many times in this blog. Since I started keeping aggregate totals by hand type, AJo has been my undisputed champion worst hand; no other hand has come within $-200,000 of it. That said, there are other hands with which I've racked up fairly impressive negative totals. One of them is pocket eights, otherwise known as snowmen. On Saturday night, I had a blizzard of snowmen. What I mean by that is they were being dealt to me at a frenetic pace. In 64 hands, I was dealt snowmen 3 times, which is more than 10 times their expected frequency. I failed to win any of those hands. On hand 5, I lost $45,500 with them, and hit the felt. Just three hands later, I lost $5,500 with them. Finally, on hand 34, I lost $6,250 with them. All in all, I lost $57,250 with snowmen on the night. That brought my lifetime snowmen aggregate total to $-175,712, moving it up to my seventh worst hand.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 64 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 9 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 7 out of 8 times while in small blind (87%)
 - 24 out of 47 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 37 out of 64 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 8 (37%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-45,135
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,967,849
balance: $9,025,552

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Out on top

The holy grail of the cash game poker player is to go out on top. That is, to leave the table when your stack is the biggest it's been the whole night long. Even though I've achieved this many times, I don't consider it an easy thing to do. The dilemma you face when you go out on top is not knowing whether or not you're cheating yourself of even greater profit. It's a nice problem to have, but it's still a problem of sorts :-) Today I wrote a program to calculate the number of out on top sessions I've had in my cash game no limit hold'em career. I actually wrote two programs - one to calculate the number of "pure" out on top sessions, and another to calculate the number of "penultimate hand" out on top sessions, where I disregard the last hand of the night. The reason for the latter categorization is not to be penalized for losing a small blind or a big blind on the last hand of the night, when all I'm trying to do is get out of Dodge. Here are the numbers:

134 "pure" out on top winning sessions
263 "penultimate hand" out on top winning sessions
426 winning sessions
625 sessions

It's encouraging to note that in well over half my winning sessions, I went out on top.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 54 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 7 times while in big blind (85%)
 - 5 out of 7 times while in small blind (71%)
 - 24 out of 40 times in other positions (60%)
 - a total of 35 out of 54 (64%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 10 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $26,807
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,012,984
balance: $9,070,687

Friday, May 16, 2014

Returning to zero

I've now played 1,302 sessions of online poker, and not a single one of them ended with the same balance I started it with. It turns out to be remarkably difficult to return to zero. Part of the difficulty lies in the fact that returning to zero has never been a goal; if it happens, it's purely a fluke. However, even though it's not a goal, I enjoy the rarity of it almost as much as the rarity of making a huge hand. Last night, I returned to zero at the end of hand 78. Today, I wrote a program to see how many times I've managed this feat. Drumroll, please ... Of the 46,933 hands for which I have the full hand histories, I've only returned to zero 34 times. The most recent time before last night was last September.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 93 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 12 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 8 out of 14 times while in small blind (57%)
 - 30 out of 67 times in other positions (44%)
 - a total of 47 out of 93 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 11 (45%)
 Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $29,384
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,986,177
balance: $9,043,880

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Big trouble

Last night, I tied a personal best in the futility department. I hit the felt for the fifth consecutive time, something I've only achieved (if that's the right word) three times in my cash game no limit hold'em career. Of course, that means I could very well set a new personal worst tonight. I hope not, of course, but you never know. In order to decrease the chances of that happening, I'm going to alter my table selection criteria tonight. Lately, I've been picking tables with two or three really big stacks sitting at them. It's good to have big money at the table, but it's risky too; if the big stacks are also big risk takers, you can hit the felt in a big hurry :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 55 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 6 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 3 out of 7 times while in small blind (42%)
 - 18 out of 42 times in other positions (42%)
 - a total of 25 out of 55 (45%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 6 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,956,793
balance: $9,014,496

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

When twenty costs you eighty

As I've mentioned many times before in this space, poker is all about pattern recognition. The most important patterns to recognize are your own bad habits. The trouble is, just being able to recognize them isn't enough; you have to be able to stop yourself from falling prey to them. One bad habit I can easily recognize, but have trouble escaping, is the one of trying too hard to get back into the black when I'm within shouting distance of it. Last night, I hit the felt for the first time on hand 49. I reupped for the max, and found myself within $20,000 of getting back into the black 38 hands after that. A little voice told me I'd seen the best of my luck, and should get out of Dodge. Needless to say, I didn't heed it. I ended up hitting the felt again, for an aggregate loss of $100,000 on the night. So the twenty I coveted cost me eighty more.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 135 hands and saw flop:
 - 15 out of 22 times while in big blind (68%)
 - 13 out of 23 times while in small blind (56%)
 - 46 out of 90 times in other positions (51%)
 - a total of 74 out of 135 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 21 (38%)
 Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,006,793
balance: $9,064,496

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

The ol' reupdown

The title of this post is meant to be humorous. Usually, when a noun is given the familiar "ol'" adjective, the writer is implying his affection for it. Indeed, when "good ol'" is used, the implication becomes clear. In reality, I have no affection whatsoever for the ol' reupdown. For that to make any sense to you, however, I must first explain what a reupdown is. Reupping is what I call it when you plunk your play money down to buy in for the maximum amount after hitting the felt. A reupdown, which is another neo neo (neostreet neologism, for the uninitiated), is what I call it when you hit the felt again on your very first hand after reupping. Of course, this is a demoralizing and horrifying occurrence. Equally obviously, I wouldn't even be talking about reupdowns if I hadn't suffered one at the end of last night's session. Thankfully, it was only the second one in my cash game no limit hold'em career, and I fully intend to keep them few and far between.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 76 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 12 times while in big blind (58%)
 - 6 out of 9 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 26 out of 55 times in other positions (47%)
 - a total of 39 out of 76 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 8 (37%)
 Pots won without showdown - 10

delta: $-106,324
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,106,793
balance: $9,164,496

Monday, May 12, 2014

Personal best straight

I've mentioned on this blog before that I'm not a big fan of straights. All too often, they get beaten by flushes or boats. However, that doesn't mean you can't win monster pots with them. On Saturday night, I had a personal best straight, winning a pot worth $136,814 with it. That was the main pot, but there were also two side pots totalling $53,442. Four of us went to showdown; one of my opponents won both side pots with trip nines. Unless you have the stone cold nuts, you don't want to be going to showdown against three opponents if you can help it. In this case, it was out of my control. I was the first player to go all-in, and the player who acted immediately after me raised all in, and got two callers.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 133 hands and saw flop:
 - 17 out of 17 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 13 out of 18 times while in small blind (72%)
 - 51 out of 98 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 81 out of 133 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 15 (40%)
 Pots won without showdown - 15

delta: $56,875
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,213,117
balance: $9,270,820

Saturday, May 10, 2014

The hand that played itself

Once in a very great while, if you play enough poker, you'll encounter hands which require the very bare minimum of thought on your part to play. In fact, I'll go so far as to say these hands actually play themselves. You can't take any credit at all for their success; all you can claim is that you had the wisdom to get out of the way while the hands worked their own magic. Such was the case last night, on hand 59. I was dealt 7d Qd, and the flop came 7h 7s Ks. I checked, then called a $500 bet. The turn was the queen of spades, giving me a full house. I checked, then called a $3,000 bet. The river was the ace of clubs. I checked yet a third time, knowing more betting was to come. One opponent bet $2,000, another opponent raised to $4,000, and then I reraised to $53,506 to go all in. The original raiser called me, and his ace high straight lost to my boat. I raked in a pot worth $122,512, and called it a night the next hand.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 60 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 9 times while in big blind (77%)
 - 8 out of 9 times while in small blind (88%)
 - 22 out of 42 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 37 out of 60 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 11 (36%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $71,512
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,156,242
balance: $9,213,945

Friday, May 9, 2014

Embracing failure

In honor of hitting the felt for the 240th time in my cash game no limit hold'em career, I'd like to give a shout out to my friend Bruce Lynn and his excellent blog, "Leadership and Management / Turning Adversity to Advantage".

http://brucelynnblog.wordpress.com/

Bruce has long evangelized the power of embracing failure. I find his posts inspiring, and very applicable to the world of poker. Poker never stops humbling you, no matter how good you think you are :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 52 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 9 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 8 out of 9 times while in small blind (88%)
 - 18 out of 34 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 35 out of 52 (67%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 11 (45%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $-50,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,084,730
balance: $9,142,433

Thursday, May 8, 2014

The walrus by a whisker

Some sports headlines are so iconic you have no trouble remembering them decades later, without ever having taken the trouble to commit them to memory. One such is "The Walrus By A Whisker", the headline on the cover of Sports Illustrated when Craig Stadler won the Masters in 1982. I like that headline so much, I'm appropriating it for the title of this post. In this case, the walrus is that beast known as the bad beat. Last night, I would have had a very successful session if I'd been able to avoid the walrus. On hand 38, all I needed to do was fade a four outer, but the walrus made it by a whisker. Luckily for me, I'd started the hand with more chips than the winner of the pot. I ground it out for 41 more hands and ended the night with a tidy little profit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 79 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 10 times while in big blind (70%)
 - 4 out of 10 times while in small blind (40%)
 - 35 out of 59 times in other positions (59%)
 - a total of 46 out of 79 (58%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 15 (60%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $14,222
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,134,730
balance: $9,192,433

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Probability radar

One of the skills I'm blessed with as a poker player is the ability to estimate probabilities without really thinking about it. I call this "probability radar". Among other things, this lets me keep my pots won at showdown percentage higher than it otherwise would be by folding when my radar tells me I have no realistic chance of winning the pot, even when it would cost me no extra chips to go to showdown. I prefer not to let my opponents see my hole cards in these situations, since that makes it harder for them to get a read on my betting patterns.

An interesting side effect of having probability radar is that it lets you appreciate the rarity of rare events as they occur. Last night, I noticed that I'd been dealt 5 hands in a row in which one of my hole cards was a deuce. I immediately knew I'd witnessed a very rare occurrence. I thought there was a good chance it was the longest such streak I'd ever encountered. I wrote a program today to test this hypothesis. It turns out I was wrong, but not by much. The longest such streak was 6 consecutive hands, back in May of last year. In that case, the repeated hole card was a king.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 108 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 15 times while in big blind (86%)
 - 16 out of 19 times while in small blind (84%)
 - 43 out of 74 times in other positions (58%)
 - a total of 72 out of 108 (66%)
 Pots won at showdown - 11 of 16 (68%)
 Pots won without showdown - 12

delta: $19,077
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,120,508
balance: $9,178,211

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

My blue heaven

Last night, I was able to achieve bluidity in my cash game no limit hold'em balance. That is, it hit a new all-time high. As I've said before, the cash game no limit hold'em poker flavor is my bread and butter. I care more about that balance being in the blue than any other. I've done very well in that department; of the 682 sessions of cash game no limit hold'em poker I've played, fully 197 of them, or 28.89%, have ended in the blue. By comparison, of the 378 sessions of cash game pot limit hold'em poker I've played, only 55 of them, or 14.55%, have ended in the blue. Cash game no limit hold'em is truly my blue heaven :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 97 hands and saw flop:
 - 11 out of 14 times while in big blind (78%)
 - 8 out of 15 times while in small blind (53%)
 - 33 out of 68 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 52 out of 97 (53%)
 Pots won at showdown - 8 of 13 (61%)
 Pots won without showdown - 9

delta: $130,702
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,101,431
balance: $9,159,134

Monday, May 5, 2014

Tenliness is next to quadliness

Once again, I demonstrate my willingness to reuse a blog post title :-) I really like this one. On Friday night, I won my biggest pot of the session, $70,694, with quad tens. I called all the way to the river, and finally raised big on the river. The opponent I'd been calling couldn't stop himself from calling. Since my two most recent quads (as far as I recall) have been quad tens, I decided to do some research to see if this is the denomination I've had quads with most often. As it turns out, it's not. Here are the numbers:

  6 quad jacks
  6 quad sixes
  6 quad fives
  5 quad kings
  4 quad nines
  3 quad aces
  3 quad tens
  3 quad eights
  3 quad threes
  3 quad twos
  2 quad queens
  2 quad sevens
  0 quad fours


As you can see, I'm overdue for quad fours.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 63 hands and saw flop:
 - 15 out of 17 times while in big blind (88%)
 - 12 out of 16 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 9 out of 30 times in other positions (30%)
 - a total of 36 out of 63 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 10 of 18 (55%)
 Pots won without showdown - 11

delta: $48,989
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,970,729
balance: $9,028,432

Friday, May 2, 2014

Getting up off the canvas

Last night, like the night before, I hit the felt twice. Unlike the night before, I decided to reup a second time. I was able to recover just over half my losses. Had I hit the felt again, I would have tied my personal record of five for most consecutive times hitting the felt. Hitting the felt in poker is very like hitting the canvas in boxing. You have to find the will to get yourself up off that canvas and start fighting again. The later at night it is, the harder it is to do. Luckily for me, my second knockdown last night didn't take much time.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 85 hands and saw flop:
 - 10 out of 12 times while in big blind (83%)
 - 7 out of 12 times while in small blind (58%)
 - 26 out of 61 times in other positions (42%)
 - a total of 43 out of 85 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 17 (52%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-49,275
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,921,740
balance: $8,979,443

Thursday, May 1, 2014

The thinnest possible draw

When I've gone all in against another player, whether I end up winning or losing the hand, I always find it entertaining (and sometimes even instructive) to crunch the numbers later on to see how thin I was drawing after the flop. To me, the thinnest possible draw is the one where you have the remotest possibility of winning the hand. Drawing dead doesn't count. Since there are 990 possible heads up permutations after the flop, the thinnest possible draw is when only one of those permutations makes you the winner. In such a case, you're a .1% dog, and your opponent is a 99.9% favorite. That didn't happen to me last night, but I was still drawing mighty thin on the hand that took me to the felt for the second (and final) time. I'd been dealt Jd Ac, and the flop came 2h Jh 4d. An opponent who just barely had me covered went all in on the turn, and I called. He turned over Js Jc at showdown, and won a pot worth $102,890. Running the numbers, I'd been a 1.92% dog after the flop. If the flop hadn't brought any straight possibilities into play, I would've been a .3% dog after the flop. I might have been a little bit frisky on this hand, but still think essentially I made the correct play.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 83 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 7 out of 11 times while in small blind (63%)
 - 24 out of 60 times in other positions (40%)
 - a total of 39 out of 83 (46%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 12 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,971,015
balance: $9,028,718