Thursday, May 1, 2014

The thinnest possible draw

When I've gone all in against another player, whether I end up winning or losing the hand, I always find it entertaining (and sometimes even instructive) to crunch the numbers later on to see how thin I was drawing after the flop. To me, the thinnest possible draw is the one where you have the remotest possibility of winning the hand. Drawing dead doesn't count. Since there are 990 possible heads up permutations after the flop, the thinnest possible draw is when only one of those permutations makes you the winner. In such a case, you're a .1% dog, and your opponent is a 99.9% favorite. That didn't happen to me last night, but I was still drawing mighty thin on the hand that took me to the felt for the second (and final) time. I'd been dealt Jd Ac, and the flop came 2h Jh 4d. An opponent who just barely had me covered went all in on the turn, and I called. He turned over Js Jc at showdown, and won a pot worth $102,890. Running the numbers, I'd been a 1.92% dog after the flop. If the flop hadn't brought any straight possibilities into play, I would've been a .3% dog after the flop. I might have been a little bit frisky on this hand, but still think essentially I made the correct play.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 83 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 12 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 7 out of 11 times while in small blind (63%)
 - 24 out of 60 times in other positions (40%)
 - a total of 39 out of 83 (46%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 12 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,971,015
balance: $9,028,718

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