Thursday, November 11, 2010

Statistical anomalies

Poker is largely about probabilities. The better you understand probability, the better you'll be at poker. One of the most important lessons to learn about probability, counter-intuitive though it might be, is that the improbable always happens, eventually. That's one reason I very rarely go all in.

I have a good innate sense of probability. I don't consciously have to think through every link in a chain of probabilistic reasoning in order to reach a conclusion; I can take shortcuts. For example, if I only have an ace high on the river, and there are several other players still in the hand, I know without having to calculate them that the odds that one of the other players has at least a pair are excellent; I would never dream of calling any bet with such a hand.

Last night, I experienced another first. I won six hands in a row! I kept wanting to call it a night, but I couldn't do that until I'd stopped winning :-) I realize that streak was a statistical anomaly, and wasn't due to any great skill on my part. To be really good at poker, you must embrace two contradictory notions simultaneously -- that the more probable hand will probably win, and that the more improbable hand will improbably win!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
- 5 out of 6 times while in big blind (83%)
- 6 out of 6 times while in small blind (100%)
- 12 out of 14 times in other positions (85%)
- a total of 23 out of 26 (88%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $27,300
balance: $973,920

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