Sunday, September 3, 2017

Observation windows

It's never a good idea to judge success or failure based on a single observation. However, that's also a very human thing to do. We tend to focus on the most recent data point; however, to get a better picture, you need to incorporate more data points. I've gravitated to looking at the moving sum of 20 consecutive sessions. In my 20 most recent sessions, I've lost $1,489,225. That's pretty bad, but it's still not my worst 20 session stretch. That honor goes to the 20 sessions from April 29, 2016 to May 21, 2016, when I lost $1,597,958.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    12      62   12     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   122     128   36    18   109000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      69   15    41        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    37      32    9     -        0


delta: $-291,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,078,500
2017 balance: $19,053,250
balance: $30,471,080

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