Observation windows

It's never a good idea to judge success or failure based on a single observation. However, that's also a very human thing to do. We tend to focus on the most recent data point; however, to get a better picture, you need to incorporate more data points. I've gravitated to looking at the moving sum of 20 consecutive sessions.

This is an excerpt from my September 3, 2017 post. In my last 20 sessions, 10 were winning and 10 were losing. I lost an aggregate of $45,000. Puppy food :-)

style flavor buy_in  entry players entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE   174000  26000       6      77   21    37        0

delta: $-200,000
MTT NLHE balance: $24,802,768
2021 balance: $1,431,000
blue distance: $2,241,000
balance: $79,096,453

Observation windows

It's never a good idea to judge success or failure based on a single observation. However, that's also a very human thing to do. We tend to focus on the most recent data point; however, to get a better picture, you need to incorporate more data points. I've gravitated to looking at the moving sum of 20 consecutive sessions. In my 20 most recent sessions, I've lost $1,489,225. That's pretty bad, but it's still not my worst 20 session stretch. That honor goes to the 20 sessions from April 29, 2016 to May 21, 2016, when I lost $1,597,958.

style flavor buy_in entry players hands entries paid place winnings

MTT   NLHE    87000 13000       6    12      62   12     -        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6   122     128   36    18   109000
MTT-R NLHE    43500  6500       9    44      69   15    41        0
MTT   NLHE    45000  5000       6    37      32    9     -        0

delta: $-291,000
MTT with rebuys NLHE balance: $18,078,500
2017 balance: $19,053,250
balance: $30,471,080