Thursday, December 5, 2013

Back-to-back improbabilities

I've certainly seen my share of improbable events at a poker table. In the vast majority of cases, they're separated by a large number of intervening, ho-hum, all-too-probable events. Once in a very great while, however, the improbable events happen back-to-back. It's akin to lightning striking twice. What can you do but shake your head, and simply marvel at what the poker gods can concoct?

Last night, on hand 30, I was dealt 8c 8h, and flopped a full house. The flop was Jh Jd 8s. I started the hand with $15,000, and ended it with nothing. I lost to an opponent who'd been dealt Js Jc, and had flopped quads. I ran the numbers, and it turns out my hand in combination with that flop beats 96.26 of all possible opponent holdings, and chops the pot with another 0.37 percent. I was extremely unlucky to run into one of the 3.37 percent of hands which could beat mine.

After reupping for the max, I immediately recouped all my losses, with interest. I was dealt As 8s, flopped top two pair, and made a full house on the turn. I ended up going all in on the turn, and two opponents went to showdown with me. I raked in a monster pot worth $155,750, and was done for the night.

By my current definition of poker rebound, that was the fourth best rebound of my career, and likely the first ever to occur on the first hand of a reup.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 32 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 4 times while in big blind (100%)
 - 0 out of 4 times while in small blind (0%)
 - 11 out of 24 times in other positions (45%)
 - a total of 15 out of 32 (46%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

 delta: $55,750
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,204,907
balance: $7,561,860


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