Wednesday, July 4, 2012

The golden profit percentage

I've discussed the golden ratio many times. It's when the value of your winning ratio, the number of your winning sessions divided by the number of your losing sessions, is greater than or equal to 2. If the average number of chips you lose in your losing sessions is equal to the average number of chips you win in your winning sessions, then when you're in golden ratio territory, your profit percentage is 100 or better. What do I mean by profit percentage? Simply stated, the percentage of the amount you wager which you win back in profit. For example, if for every dollar you wager you win back two dollars, then your profit is one dollar, and your profit percentage is 100. If there's a golden winning ratio, then there must also be a golden profit percentage; I recently set out to discover what it is.

Crunching the numbers, I've discovered that on average I lose more chips in my losing sessions than I win in my winning sessions. That's not too surprising. The vast majority of the time, I'll lose at least $40,000 in my losing sessions. Occasionally I'll lose $80,000, and on some really bad nights, I'll lose $120,000 or close to it. The average amount I win in a winning session is under $40,000. Therefore, I can't realize the ideal profit percentage of 100. However, I am realizing some profit percentage, and since I'm hitting the golden ratio, I think it's fair to say that whatever profit percentage I'm realizing is also golden.

So what does the golden profit percentage turn out to be? For me, it's 60. That means for every dollar I wager, I can expect to earn back 60 cents in profit. Not too shabby!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 117 hands and saw flop:
 - 18 out of 20 times while in big blind (90%)
 - 15 out of 22 times while in small blind (68%)
 - 50 out of 75 times in other positions (66%)
 - a total of 83 out of 117 (70%)
 Pots won at showdown - 18 of 31 (58%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $44,225
balance: $4,902,280

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