Monday, August 26, 2013

Winning session indicator

Looking back over last night's session, I came up with what I hope will turn out to be a pretty good indicator of a winning session. I'll need to run it on my historical data to verify if it's any good. For now, I'll just describe it. I'm only considering sessions where I didn't hit the felt. Here goes:

1. add 1 to the number of hands, then divide that number by 2, rounding down; call the result m
2. divide the number of won pots by 2, rounding down, then add 1; call the result n
3. determine the zero-based number of the hand where you won pot number n; call the result p
4. calculate p / m
5. if p / m >= some magic number, you had a winning session

I know the magic number has to be > 1. I'll pick a number out of a hat for a first stab at the magic number: 1.33. Running this on the data from last night's session:

1. (1 + 60) / 2 = 61 / 2 = 30.5; m = 30
2. 10 / 2 + 1 = 5 + 1 = 6; n = 6
3. p = 42
4. p / m = 1.4
5. p / m >= 1.33, so the indicator says this was a winning session

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 60 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 6 out of 8 times while in small blind (75%)
 - 21 out of 44 times in other positions (47%)
 - a total of 33 out of 60 (55%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 6 (83%)
 Pots won without showdown - 5

delta: $12,299
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,864,077
balance: $7,221,030

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