Thursday, August 1, 2013

Flopping fatties

One of the fascinating things about poker is that the improbable happens like clockwork. I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating. What I mean by this is that no matter how unlikely a particular event is, you can rely on it to occur with its own particular frequency. You might think that flopping a fatty is an unusual event, but I'm here to tell you that it's actually not. Even though you can only expect it to happen to you once out of every 694 hands, you can expect it to happen to you once out of every 694 hands. This sounds like a tautology, but it's not. As long as you keep playing, you can expect to keep flopping fatties every 694 hands. In other words, you will never stop flopping fatties! Is life great, or what? :-)

Since I turned on the PokerStars feature which auto saves the hand histories, I've been dealt 31,976 hands. Of those hands, I've seen the flop 19,087 times. Of those flops, I've flopped a fatty 35 times. In the last month alone, I've flopped a fatty 4 times. In the last two sessions alone, I've flopped a fatty twice. The odds of flopping a fatty are 3,744 in 2,598,960 or .1441 percent of the time. I'm currently beating the odds; right now I'm at .1834 percent.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 110 hands and saw flop:
 - 8 out of 15 times while in big blind (53%)
 - 9 out of 16 times while in small blind (56%)
 - 43 out of 79 times in other positions (54%)
 - a total of 60 out of 110 (54%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 19 (47%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $17,318
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,833,289
balance: $7,190,242

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