The paradox of conservatism

When I wrote in my last post that I wanted to keep playing in a conservative style, it felt a bit off. Inexact, or incorrect, or some combination of both. Thinking it over, I know why. It was off because it runs counter to the secret of winning at poker. Yes, friends and neighbors, it's that time again! I'm about to tell you, once more, this precious secret. Don't be alarmed that the secret constantly changes; the fact is, there's only one secret at any given time :-)

It's wrong to decide to play in a conservative style. Does that mean one should play aggressively? No; it's also wrong to decide to play in an aggressive style. What I'm trying to say is that it's wrong to decide to play in any particular style (this is the secret). When you do this, you limit yourself severely. Poker is all about fooling your opponents; you must constantly vary your style of play. Also, you must constantly adjust your style based on all the data you have at your disposal, which includes the playing style of your opponents.

So what, exactly, is the paradox of conservatism? Simply this: to accomplish the goal of conserving your chips, sometimes you must make plays that are very aggressive. It's a given that if you make conservative plays all the time, your opponents will recognize that, react accordingly, and end up winning all your chips. So you can't make conservative plays all the time, even though you want to play conservatively!

Last night, I doubled up on the very first hand. Here's how it went down:

Table 'Solstice II' 6-max (Play Money) Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: neostreet (2000 in chips)
Seat 2: (4955 in chips)
Seat 6: (6320 in chips)
Seat 6: posts small blind 5
neostreet: posts big blind 10
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to neostreet [2c Ah 5c 6h Th]
Seat 2: folds
Seat 6: raises 6310 to 6320 and is all-in
neostreet: calls 1990 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (4320) returned to Seat 6
*** FIRST DRAW ***
Seat 6: discards 1 card
neostreet: discards 2 cards [Ah Th]
Dealt to neostreet [2c 5c 6h] [4s 6s]
*** SECOND DRAW ***
Seat 6: discards 1 card
neostreet: discards 1 card [6s]
Dealt to neostreet [2c 5c 6h 4s] [4d]
*** THIRD DRAW ***
Seat 6: discards 1 card
neostreet: discards 1 card [4d]
Dealt to neostreet [2c 5c 6h 4s] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Seat 6: shows [8c 5d 7h 4h 9h] (Lo: 9,8,7,5,4)
neostreet: shows [2c 4s 5c 6h 7d] (Lo: 7,6,5,4,2)
neostreet collected 4000 from pot

I decided to call the all in bet since I'd been dealt three excellent low cards out of five. Some might say that was insufficient, and that I only should have called with four excellent low cards out of five. What can I tell you? I had a hunch my hand would win. You have to go with your gut sometimes!

During current 2-7 Triple Draw session you were dealt 41 hands
Pots won if drawing - 11 of 28 (39%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $3,613
balance: $2,033,589