Wednesday, May 12, 2010

How to win over 25% of the time and still lose

Last night, my stats looked pretty damn good:

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 53 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 10 times while in big blind (90%)
- 8 out of 8 times while in small blind (100%)
- 33 out of 35 times in other positions (94%)
- a total of 50 out of 53 (94%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 of 17 (58%)
Pots won without showdown - 5

15 pots won out of 53 hands equates to winning 28% of the time, which is double the expected clip at a 7 player table. Unfortunately, what these statistics don't show is some spectacular misjudgments and profligate spending on a small number of the hands I didn't win. So despite good looking numbers, I ate felt once again.

Looking back over the hands I misjudged so spectacularly, I see now how badly I was deluding myself; the trick is to realize you're deluding yourself while in the act of doing so. That's a skill that will take some time to master :-)

delta: $-40,000
balance: $549,503

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