Monday, July 1, 2013

A second helping of deuces

In mathematics, twin primes are pairs of prime numbers which differ by 2. Just as there are an infinite number of prime numbers, there are an infinite number of twin primes. Here are the first 5 pairs: 1 and 3, 3 and 5, 5 and 7, 11 and 13, and 17 and 19. I've always loved this concept of numerical kinship. So much so, in fact, that I've appropriated it in a poker context. In poker, I declare twin hands to be consecutive hands where the hole cards are identical. The order in which the hole cards were dealt is unimportant.

If you're paying attention, you should notice when you're dealt twin hands. You should immediately get a funky feeling of deja vu when you look at the second twin. You should get a sensation that something isn't quite right. It just doesn't seem natural to be dealt the same hand two times in a row. Of course, this feeling is illogical; from a purely statistical standpoint, you should expect to see twin hands once in every 1,326 chances. Why is that? For the simple reason that there are 1,326 unique starting hands in hold'em. Every time you're dealt a hand, there's a 1 in 1,326 chance that your next hand will be identical.

On Saturday night, I was dealt twin hands near the end of the session. It was a pair of deuces (the deuce of spades and the deuce of diamonds, to be precise). I lost $400 on the first hand, but had a strong hunch when dealt the second one that I'd see a third deuce in the flop. I wasn't disappointed. I raised an all in bet of $5,739 on the turn to $11,478, and got one caller. On the river, I bet $20,000, and the opponent who'd called on the turn folded. My set of twos held up, and I won a pot worth $45,395, $29,717 of which was o.p.m. (other people's money). I realized I'd just seen the best of my luck and called it a night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 82 hands and saw flop:
 - 7 out of 8 times while in big blind (87%)
 - 8 out of 11 times while in small blind (72%)
 - 36 out of 63 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 51 out of 82 (62%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 12 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 7

delta: $-10,353
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,745,092
balance: $7,194,500

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