Friday, April 8, 2011

One in seven million shot? Not! (edited)

[start of original post]

A very rare thing occurred during last night's session - a one in seven million shot. I was dealt the same hole cards twice in a row, including the order in which they were dealt. I did a mental double take! Today I calculated the odds of that happening; they're 1 in (52 * 51) * (52 * 51), which is 1 in 7,033,104. Needless to say, I'm certain this is the first time this has ever happened to me. For the record, the hole cards were [Qd 3h], and I folded before the flop both times.

[edit: I revealed a fair amount of innumeracy here, sad to say. These odds are way off. They're actually the correct odds for a different problem statement; namely, "What are the odds of being dealt [Qd 3h] twice in a row?" The problem statement for the problem I was trying to solve is, "What are the odds of being dealt the same hand twice in a row?" The answer to that is 1 in 52 * 51, which is 1 in 2,652. Much less impressive! It's actually quite likely that this has happened to me before at least once; I just didn't happen to notice it at the time(s)!]

[back to your originally scheduled programming :-)]

I did very well early on last night; so well, that I got within a little over $3K of the play million mark. I stayed too long at the party, however, and my stack slowly sank back down after that. I managed to call it a night with a small profit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 89 hands and saw flop:
- 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
- 8 out of 13 times while in small blind (61%)
- 40 out of 63 times in other positions (63%)
- a total of 57 out of 89 (64%)
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 12 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $10,650
balance: $968,534

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