Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Cruel and unusual treatment

Over the years, I've picked up a lot of great phrases from people I admire. One such is "cruel and unusual treatment", which I picked up from my father. Last night, the poker gods subjected me to cruel and unusual treatment on hand 35. It was very close to being the cruelest hand it could be, and that's saying a lot. When you've flopped a monster, you know it, and I flopped a monster on hand 35. I'd been dealt 5d Qd, and the flop came 7d Kd 4d. I'd flopped the second nut flush, and bet it accordingly; I went all in on the turn after seeing the harmless turn card, which was the five of clubs. I had one caller. I was extremely unlucky to be up against an opponent who had flopped the stone cold nuts; he'd been dealt 6d Ad. Using one of my home-grown poker utilities, which calculates a statistic I call "percent at flop", I found out that my hand, in combination with that flop, beat 96.58% of all possible opponent hands, in combination with the remaining possible turn and river cards. I lost $56,986 on the hand, and hit the felt.

Just to try to put things in perspective, I decided to try constructing the most dominant percent at flop scenario I could think of. Here's what I came up with:

hole cards: Ac Ad
flop: Ah As 2c

This yields a nearly perfect percent at flop value of 99.99%. Not too terribly different from 96.58%. Ouch!

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 91 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 11 times while in big blind (27%)
 - 5 out of 13 times while in small blind (38%)
 - 29 out of 67 times in other positions (43%)
 - a total of 37 out of 91 (40%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 6 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 4

delta: $-100,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,900,080
balance: $7,189,311

2 comments:

  1. Wouldn't the most dominant percent at flop scenario be...

    Hole cards: As Ks
    Flop: Qs Js Ts

    (in any suit for that matter)
    Which would be 100% dominant.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Excellent point! That setup wins all 1,070,190 combinations.

      Delete