My new Lazarus line

Some time ago, I introduced the concept of the Lazarus line - a percentage of your starting stack size below which you must not let your stack fall. At the time, I judged the Lazarus line to be around 22 percent. That now seems ridiculously high to me. My current thinking is that the Lazarus line is around 8 percent. With a starting stack size of $40,000, that means you've crossed the line when your stack falls below $3,200. When this happens, you must quit playing immediately. As you may know, I'm not very good at following this particular rule of thumb. I just ran some numbers to figure out roughly how much money I would have saved had I been religious about following this rule. Here's what I came up with:

    435: # of sessions of cash game no limit hold'em I've played
 
     47: # of such sessions when I've lost exactly my starting stack size of $40,000 

     60: guesstimated percentage of such sessions which were Lazarus sessions, where a Lazarus session is defined as one in which I hit or crossed the Lazarus line and had chips left to play with after hitting or crossing it

   28.2: guesstimated number of Lazarus sessions (47 * .6)

 $3,200: maximum amount of Lazarus money, where this is defined as the amount of chips left to play with in a Lazarus session after hitting or crossing the Lazarus line

    50: guesstimated average percentage of the maximum amount of Lazarus money in a Lazarus session

$1,600: guesstimated average amount of Lazarus money in a Lazarus session (3200 * .5)

$45,120: guesstimated amount of money I would have saved had I been religious about following the Lazarus line rule of thumb (28.2 * 1600)

It's interesting to note that simply by following my own rule of thumb, I would have spotted myself more than enough to play another session essentially for free. If I'd followed this rule last night, I would have lost $36,977 instead of $40,000.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 53 hands and saw flop:
 - 4 out of 8 times while in big blind (50%)
 - 5 out of 8 times while in small blind (62%)
 - 23 out of 37 times in other positions (62%)
 - a total of 32 out of 53 (60%)
 Pots won at showdown - 5 of 10 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-40,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,936,395
balance: $7,385,803