Sunday, May 19, 2013

3.5 million folded on the river

After thinking about it some more, I realized that my definition of a fully matured hand was flawed. There's only one criterion which needs to be satisfied - namely, that the hand was live when the river card was revealed. That means that there's another possible outcome in addition to the four I mentioned in yesterday's post - namely, that the hand was folded on the river. Since my original definition excluded hands which were folded on the river, I was understating the number of losing hands and the amount lost with losing hands, and therefore overstating the net amount won. Here are the correct numbers, including the hands from last night's session:

      7,439  number of fully matured cash game no limit hold'em hands I've played since turning on auto-save
      3,216  number of winning hands
      4,223  number of losing hands
$22,510,218  amount won with winning hands
$13,039,907  amount lost with losing hands
$ 9,470,311  net amount won

It's vitally important to be able to fold hands on the river. Clearly, you don't want to fold the majority of your fully matured hands, since that would call into question why you let them fully mature in the first place; however, you're going to have to fold a healthy percentage of them.

Just for fun, I wrote some tools to figure out how much play money I've folded on the river since turning on the auto-save feature of the PokerStars software. It comes out to a whopping $3,466,693. The thing is, that was almost certainly play money well lost :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 61 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 8 times while in big blind (75%)
 - 5 out of 8 times while in small blind (62%)
 - 24 out of 45 times in other positions (53%)
 - a total of 35 out of 61 (57%)
 Pots won at showdown - 6 of 11 (54%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $27,090
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $5,217,048
balance: $7,666,456

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