Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Percentage at flop

I don't use a poker odds calculator while playing, but occasionally I like to use one the next day to see what the odds had been in certain situations. As I may have mentioned, I've written a calculator of my own so I can customize it as I see fit. As it turns out, the calculator on the PokerStars site doesn't provide a way to calculate the heads up odds at the flop when the opponent's hand is unknown, so that's one of the customizations I've done. I call these odds the percentage at flop odds. The more traditional case of the heads up odds at the flop when the opponent's hand is known I call the heads up flop odds.

Last night, I lost a bunch of chips on the following hand (opponent screen names have been removed):

Seat 1: (11200 in chips)
Seat 2: (32600 in chips)
Seat 4: (52800 in chips)
Seat 5: (5800 in chips)
Seat 6: (42600 in chips)
Seat 7: neostreet (21000 in chips)
Seat 8: (40100 in chips)
Seat 4: posts small blind 100
Seat 5: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to neostreet [Ac Qd]
Seat 6: calls 200
neostreet: calls 200
Seat 8: calls 200
Seat 1: calls 200
Seat 2: calls 200
Seat 4: calls 100
Seat 5: checks
*** FLOP *** [4c As Ad]
Seat 4: checks
Seat 5: checks
Seat 6: checks
neostreet: checks
Seat 8: checks
Seat 1: bets 200
Seat 2: raises 1000 to 1200
Seat 4: folds
Seat 5: folds
Seat 6: folds
neostreet: raises 1000 to 2200
Seat 8: folds
Seat 1: calls 2000
Seat 2: calls 1000
*** TURN *** [4c As Ad] [2c]
neostreet: bets 5000
Seat 1: raises 3800 to 8800 and is all-in
Seat 2: folds
neostreet: calls 3800
*** RIVER *** [4c As Ad 2c] [3d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
neostreet: shows [Ac Qd] (three of a kind, Aces)
Seat 1: shows [Ah 5s] (a straight, Ace to Five)
Seat 1 collected 25600 from pot

My calculator tells me my percentage at flop odds of winning were 94.54%, but my heads up flop odds were only 69.29%. It's lucky for me Seat 1 only had $11K in chips at the start of the hand, or it's likely I would have hit the felt. I had some good luck after this hand, winning a pot worth $30K with a king high flush, and a pot worth $17K with a pair of kings.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 32 hands and saw flop:
- 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
- 3 out of 5 times while in small blind (60%)
- 15 out of 22 times in other positions (68%)
- a total of 22 out of 32 (68%)
Pots won at showdown - 3 of 6 (50%)
Pots won without showdown - 2

delta: $2,800
balance: $915,187

No comments:

Post a Comment