Twin flushes

It's pretty rare to get two flushes in a single session. It's much rarer to get two in a row. It's much rarer still if they're in the same suit. It's the rarest of all if they're each the nut flush. Last night, I had two flushes. They were in a row. They were also in the same suit, spades. Finally, they were each the nut flush, since both times I'd been dealt the ace of spades as one of my hole cards. The odds of all those coincidences happening are vanishingly small. I won a pot worth $33,042 with the first twin, and $50,600 with the other. To use a favorite locution of my father's, I knew "beyond peradventure" that I was done for the night :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 29 hands and saw flop:
 - 3 out of 5 times while in big blind (60%)
 - 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
 - 10 out of 19 times in other positions (52%)
 - a total of 17 out of 29 (58%)
 Pots won at showdown - 3 of 4 (75%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $48,721
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,077,944
balance: $6,527,352

Air

There are only two reasons to go all in:

1. you have the nuts
2. you have air

The reason some players go all in when they have air is that they're trying to scare opponents off the hand, knowing they can't survive a showdown. I don't follow these rules all the time. In fact, I've never used reason 2. That doesn't mean, however, that I've never been the beneficiary when other players have used it. Last night was the most recent case in point. On hand 5, I was dealt a pair of queens, and made a set on the turn. On the river, my opponent went all in, and I called. He turned out to have pure air - a queen high. I took the money and ran.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 6 hands and saw flop:
 - 0 out of 1 times while in big blind (0%)
 - 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
 - 2 out of 4 times in other positions (50%)
 - a total of 3 out of 6 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 1 (100%)
 Pots won without showdown - 0

delta: $40,100
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,029,223
balance: $6,478,631

The urge to educate

Every now and then, I get the strong urge to educate an opponent about just how big a fool he's being. I try to overcome this desire, but am not always successful. I failed again last night. On hand 23, I flopped a club flush draw. When the opponent immediately to my right, who had me covered, went all in, I couldn't stop myself from calling. Not only did I not hit my flush, it wouldn't have mattered if I had, since my opponent hit a runner runner for a full house. I reupped for the max, but wasn't able to recoup my losses; I played even poker for another 51 hands. When my internet connection died, I took that as the signal to quit.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 74 hands and saw flop:
 - 5 out of 10 times while in big blind (50%)
 - 6 out of 11 times while in small blind (54%)
 - 26 out of 53 times in other positions (49%)
 - a total of 37 out of 74 (50%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 13 (30%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $-39,050
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $3,989,123
balance: $6,438,531

Failure to eject

I was toying with the idea of titling this post "Failure to launch", but realized "Failure to eject" is much more apropos. As you may have guessed, this has to do with rockets (pocket aces), and how (or how not) to play them. Very few players have difficulty launching when they're dealt rockets, but by the same token, very few players have the ability to eject once they've launched. I didn't have that ability last night, and as a result I rode my rockets straight into the felt. My aces up ran into a full house, and I was done for the night.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 18 hands and saw flop:
 - 2 out of 3 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 1 out of 3 times while in small blind (33%)
 - 5 out of 12 times in other positions (41%)
 - a total of 8 out of 18 (44%)
 Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $-40,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,028,173
balance: $6,477,581

Missing my stop

On Saturday night, I missed my stop. Actually, I missed more than one. I should have gotten off the bus when I won a pot worth $44,602 on hand 47. I also should have gotten off when I won a pot worth $35,027 11 hands later. Both of those hands stick out like sore thumbs in the bar chart of my stack size over the course of the session. The good news is, I finally got the hint that I'd had the best of my luck, and quit after hand 97. Ironically, my stack at that point was almost exactly what it was at the end of hand 47, so missing the first stop didn't end up hurting me.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 97 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
 - 7 out of 14 times while in small blind (50%)
 - 34 out of 70 times in other positions (48%)
 - a total of 50 out of 97 (51%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 12 (33%)
 Pots won without showdown - 6

delta: $24,348
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,068,173
balance: $6,517,581

A formula for success

I have enough poker data now to be able to formulate hyphotheses and prove or disprove them quickly by seeing if the data bears them out. Looking at my session stats from last night, I'm no longer on the fence about which stat is more important, the seeing the flop percentage or the showdown percentage. It's clear that the seeing the flop percentage is more important. If you can keep this number under 50, you'll greatly increase your chances of having a winning session. Many of your opponents won't be able to stay below 50, and you'll eat their lunch. I've noted this before, but it still surprises me - you really don't need a lot of winning hands to have a winning session. Last night I only had three, but they turned out to be enough.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 59 hands and saw flop:
 - 6 out of 9 times while in big blind (66%)
 - 6 out of 9 times while in small blind (66%)
 - 13 out of 41 times in other positions (31%)
 - a total of 25 out of 59 (42%)
 Pots won at showdown - 2 of 8 (25%)
 Pots won without showdown - 1

delta: $5,122
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,043,825
balance: $6,493,233

Shooting the moon

Last night, I had my fifth losing session in a row. If I lose tonight, it'll tie my longest cash game no limit hold'em losing streak. On the last hand of the night, I flopped a nut flush draw. I decided to call an all in bet, when someone acting ahead of me had already called it. Why did I call? I had a hunch I'd hit my flush. I knew I wasn't making the mathematically correct play, but felt like trying to shoot the moon anyway. I just ran the numbers, and ironically, it turns out I actually did make the mathematically correct play. Since I'd gone all in against two other players, I would have tripled up had I won. In order for such a play to pay off over the long haul, I'd need to have had a better than one in three chance of winning the pot. I actually had a 37.43% chance of winning, though there was no way I could have known that at the time.

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 89 hands and saw flop:
 - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
 - 10 out of 13 times while in small blind (76%)
 - 36 out of 63 times in other positions (57%)
 - a total of 55 out of 89 (61%)
 Pots won at showdown - 4 of 15 (26%)
 Pots won without showdown - 8

delta: $-40,000
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $4,038,703
balance: $6,488,111