Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Bad beat distance

Last night, I played well, but was done in by a bad beat. It happened relatively early on in the session, on hand 38. The harshness of the bad beat prompted me to come up with a way to measure the severity of bad beats. Clearly, the more money you've invested, the worse a bad beat is. Equally clearly, the bigger the favorite you were to win the hand, the worse a bad beat is. I've come up with a way to account for both of these factors; I'm calling my new statistic the bad beat distance. Here's the formula:

bad_beat_distance = money_invested_in_the_hand +
    expected_value_of_the_hand

The expected value of the hand has its own formula:

expected_value of the_hand = ((100 * money_invested_in_the_hand * -1) +
    (win_pct * pot_size)) / 100

By the way, these formulas assume the bad beatee has gone all in; the money invested in the hand is the size of the bad beatee's stack at the start of the hand.

For the hand in question, the money invested in the hand was $57,183, my win percentage was 93 (i.e., I was a 93% favorite), and the pot size was $115,616. So the expected value of the hand was $50,339.88, and the bad beat distance was $107,522.88. Any time your bad beat distance is over $100,000, that's a damn bad bad beat :-)

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 141 hands and saw flop:
 - 13 out of 16 times while in big blind (81%)
 - 8 out of 17 times while in small blind (47%)
 - 47 out of 108 times in other positions (43%)
 - a total of 68 out of 141 (48%)
 Pots won at showdown - 9 of 18 (50%)
 Pots won without showdown - 3

delta: $-18,711
cash game no limit hold'em balance: $6,462,980
balance: $9,210,139

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