Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Feast or famine

To be successful in tournaments over the long haul, it's vitally important that you have top notch heads up skills. What will separate feast from famine is the ability, once you've made the money, to come in first more often than you come in second. I haven't achieved this yet. Here are my current place counts and percentages:

place count(*) count(*) / 91

    1       16        0.1758
    2       16        0.1758
    3       14        0.1538
    4       19        0.2088
    5       12        0.1319
    6       14        0.1538


As you can see, right now it's a dead heat between my firsts and seconds. Only the fact that I've been averaging just over 1 in 6 for both of these places has enabled me to get into the black.

Let's say it's a given that you're going to make the money in two out of every six tournaments you enter. Sounds like a great deal, right? Not exactly! If you come in second both times in this scenario, you'll end up losing money hand over fist. At the $50,000 buy in level, you'll lose a total of $94,800 for that series of six tournaments. If you win one and come in second in the other, you still end up on the losing side of the ledger; your buy ins will be covered, but you'll end up losing your entry fees. At the $50,000 buy in level, you'll lose a total of $4,800 for that series of six tournaments. If you're somehow able to win both times, you'll be making money hand over fist. At the $50,000 buy in level, you'll win a total of $85,200 for that series of six tournaments.

This makes it crystal clear that you must have more firsts than seconds in the tournaments where you make the money. As I've said before, this is truly a severe challenge. If you can take on these formidable odds and come out on top, no one can say that you're not a great player.

buy_in entry_fee num_players num_hands place winnings

 50000       800           6        65     1   195000
 50000       800           6        22     5        0
 50000       800           6        22     5        0
 50000       800           6        33     3        0
 50000       800           6        38     4        0
 50000       800           6        57     1   195000

delta: $85,200
balance: $5,137,021

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