Friday, October 5, 2012

The golden 123 / 456

You know me; I love coming up with statistical theories related to poker. Here's my latest: if you can finish in the top three places 33% more than you finish in the bottom three places, you'll make a profit. I call this the golden 123 / 456. Right now, I'm hitting it on the nose:

place    count(*)    count(*) / 280
1    51    0.1821
2    54    0.1929
3    55    0.1964
4    47    0.1679
5    43    0.1536
6    30    0.1071


123/456 = (51 + 54 + 55) / (47 + 43 + 30) = 160 / 120 = 1.333333

Of course, skeptics among you might claim that I came up with this number based on my data. Actually, I did! However, I still think it's a pretty good theory.

buy_in entry_fee num_players num_hands place winnings

 50000       800           6        15     4        0
 50000       800           6        43     5        0
 50000       800           6        36     2   105000


delta: $-47,400
tournament balance: $1,220,090
balance: $6,350,821

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