A probe bluff gone horribly wrong

Lately, I've been dusting off an old and reliable poker tool, the probe bet. I first learned about it in "Harrington on Hold 'em, Expert Strategy for No Limit Tournaments, Vol. 1" by Dan Harrington. Actually, I've come up with a variation on the probe bet which I'll call the probe bluff. The basic idea of the probe bluff is that when you have cocktail napkins (a colorful name for two worthless cards) and the flop has scare cards in it, it's worth a small bet just to see if you can steal the pot. You say to yourself, "I have such a shit hand, these are the definitely the last chips I'm putting into this pot. If everyone folds, good on me, but if anyone raises, I'll just fold. I'm totally prepared to fold; I just want to see if this probe bluff will take the pot."

The danger with probe bluffs is that if nobody raises you but at least one opponent calls, then you'll get to see another card. That other card can put you in a world of hurt. You almost shouldn't even look at it; by rights, you should honor your probe bluff philosophy by just folding on that street. Last night, in the first tournament I entered, I lost $800 on the penultimate hand because I didn't honor my probe bluff philosophy. I probe bluffed the flop, then liked the card I saw on the turn and decided to stay in the hand. Bad dog! :-)

buy_in entry_fee num_players num_hands place winnings

 50000       800           6        53     4        0
 50000       800           6        67     2   105000
 50000       800           6        57     4        0

delta: $-47,400
tournament balance: $1,097,890
balance: $6,228,621